Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Iran’s foreign minister suggested in private talks that his country was willing to restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief, people familiar with the discussions said. 
• The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on the EU to release diesel stockpiles, a move seen potentially averting a ban on US exports of the critical fuel. 
• RTX won a deal worth $24.4 billion to accelerate production of a key anti-air and anti-surface missile for the US Navy. 
• A new report shows the complexity of solving the national shortage of plumbers and electricians. 
• Retail investors are poised to pile back into US stocks this month after a sharp cooldown in September, Citadel Securities’ head of equity and equity derivatives strategy Scott Rubner said. 
• Oil and gas flows are increasing through the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker captain's first-hand account of the perilous journey shows how. 
• US funding markets could face disruptions from traders seeking to profit from a continued march higher in Treasury yields. 
• Top artificial intelligence firms are working to convince people to use their tools for more sensitive tasks. 
• The risk premium in euro-area government bonds shoot up, a sign that concerns around France’s fiscal and political situation are starting to spill over into other markets. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.       

• @ZeroHedge

• The $40 Billion Minerals Gamble: Can Trump Break China's Chokehold Before The West's Rearmament Hits A Wall?         
• BBG report of a pre-Thanksgiving IPO by Anthropic sent odds the company goes public by November to 70%. Ant is in a far bigger rush to reload capital unlike OpenAI which is now happy to wait well into 2027.
• 3 Huge Storms Will Combine Over The Central United States To Form A Gigantic "Hybrid Storm" That Will Cause Widespread Flooding.
• Bridgewater CEO Warns Unregulated AI Could Trigger 'Societal Breakdown' - Even As The Firm Profits From It.
• While Subprime Auto Loans Default, Their Bonds Somehow Keep Performing.
• Waste Of The Day: IRS Enforcement Delayed.
• That's odd: the "$109 billion in demand' for PSKY bonds was nowhere to be found after the break today when all tranches (especially HY) dumped and all those who didn't get an allocation could have bought at a big discount. strange how that works.
• Cotton Calls For Military Supply Chain Security Review After F-35 Parts Diverted To Hong Kong.
• *ONSEMI TO BUY SYNAPTICS FOR $123/SHR CASH IN REVISED DEAL.
• Remembering The False Gloom And Doom Of The 1992 Elections... And The Upcoming Midterms.    
• France Erupts Into Chaos As "Rioting Migrant" Kids Torch Schools And Busses.                  
• FHFA set to ease credit data requirement for Fannie and Freddie. *FAIR ISAAC SHARES FALL 4% POSTMARKET. *EQUIFAX DOWN 3.4%, TRANSUNION FALLS 2.6% AFTER-HOURS.         
• Stocks, Bonds, & Oil All Up Amid 'Red October' Rout Across Europe. 

• @CNBC  

• INTERPOL says AI is increasing the speed and scale of cyber threats. Here’s what companies should watch.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as September jobs report looms: Live updates.
• CNBC Daily Open: Three’s a crowd: U.S. carrier buildup in Middle East sends oil spiking.    

• @WallStEngine

• $GOOGL JUST PUT ITS AI CHIPS INTO ORBIT FOR THE FIRST TIME. Google and Planet Labs. $PL have successfully launched Project Suncatcher M1 aboard SpaceX’s Transporter-18 mission. Planet says it has already made contact with the spacecraft and begun commissioning. This is the first-ever in-orbit test of Google’s Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs. The refrigerator-sized prototype carries four Trillium TPUs, Google’s custom AI accelerators. This is not yet an orbital data center. The goal is to see whether the same type of AI hardware Google uses on Earth can survive launch and reliably run machine-learning workloads in low Earth orbit.
• Nike $NKE CEO Elliott Hill: “Overall, there’s a lack of energy in the lifestyle space right now, which is impacting traffic”. “Yes, the consumer is cautious". "But as the leader in the industry, it’s on us to bring more creativity to sportswear”. Note: China Q1 rev was down 26%.
• Anthropic to meet prospective IPO investors on Oct. 14 at its San Francisco headquarters, Bloomberg reports. A select group of institutional investors will reportedly get the chance to question senior executives ahead of a potential November listing. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%. 
• Crude Oil 92.83/bbl. -.04%. 
• Gold 4,188.8 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.07 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.59 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 135.7 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.26% +2.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.