Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.7 -1.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 65.4 -.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .38 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .20 +6.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.3 -2.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 173.9 +1.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 64.0 -.9%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.1 -.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.0 +1.6
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -3.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -1.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(123 of 500 reporting) +37.2% -1.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.85 +1.10: Growth Rate +25.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.39% +3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +499.8% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,095.71 +3.00: Growth Rate +63.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 16.7 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 27.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.7 +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 95.80 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.8% +.2%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.66 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 72.9% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 51.8%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +750 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +22 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/energy/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long
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