Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on "Blue Wave" Policy Ramification Second Thoughts, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Slowdown Fears, Forced Selling Rumors, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +5.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.75 -2.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -7.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.1 -.1% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.9 +3.8% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 +3.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.7 +2.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -2.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +27.8% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 415.20 +.22:  Growth Rate +26.6% unch., P/E 17.9 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,102.95 +.59: Growth Rate +64.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.3 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .95 +21.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.6 -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 90.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.83% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 47.8%(+11.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2,970 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -261 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -48 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral