Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,007.39 +.96%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 27,219.52 +1.57%

• NASDAQ 8,176.72 +.91%

• Russell 2000 1,578.14 +4.85%

• S&P 500 High Beta 42.90 +3.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.0 +7.89%

• Wilshire 5000 30,823.92 +1.16%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,622.75 -.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,275.99 +2.41%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 622.72 -.92%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,124.90 +.63%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,963.22 +.05%

• Transports 10,813.62 +4.96%

• Utilities 846.99 -.15%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.13 +8.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.12 +1.87%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,234.19 +.29%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 951.52 +.13%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 374,330 +1.09%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 249 +73

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.88 -25.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 384,157 -1.91%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,082,415 +3.96%

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• OEX Put/Call 46.3 +5,391%

• ISE Sentiment 89.0 +4.71%

• NYSE Arms .79 -46.88%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -7.87%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.81 -9.68%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.77 -1.88%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.09 -1.94%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,886.81 +2.35%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.397 Trillion +.50%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.387 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 33.1 +15.7%

• AAII % Bears 31.3 -20.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 174.79 +1.30%

• Crude Oil 54.89 -2.89%

• Reformulated Gasoline 155.25 -1.05%

• Natural Gas 2.63 +4.06%

• Heating Oil 187.78 -.75%

• Gold 1,489.70 -1.02%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.18 +1.44%

• Copper 269.80 +2.57%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 248.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.13%

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +7.49%

• Lumber 379.90 +7.47%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 834.94 +2.9%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.81% +34.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.5% +40.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1223 +11.7%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 399.37 +149.8%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.15 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 +2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.60 +10.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18

• US Dollar Index 98.25 +.17%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,618.31 +.61%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,219.36 -1.24%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.31 +1.52%

• Yield Curve 7.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.90% +35.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.731 Trillion +.23%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.82 +11.3%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.98 -02%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -66.25 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.90 -4.57%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.80 -3.37%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.94 -1.24%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.41 +.26%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.33 -8.53%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.36 +.09%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% +12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread .25 -3.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +6.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.05 -2.56%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 393.0 -5.77%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.38 -2.50%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 201.20 +1.77%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 +.56%
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.873 Trillion +1.27%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,115.70 -.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -3,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.56% +7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.80 +2.02%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.40% +100.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 2,331 -5.32%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 823.75 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 230,297 -15.75%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +6.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +9.1%

• Banks +8.3%

• Oil Service +8.2%

• Airlines +7.3%

• Retail +6.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Pharma -1.1% 

• REITs -1.8%

• Software -1.9%

• Gold & Silver -4.1%

• Restaurants -4.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)

• KEM, DAN, IGT, AGS, CARS, GEL, SHLX, MDC, RMBS, UCTT, OI, TGI, ETSY, REVG, DCP, WES and PK

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)

• MDB, ZS and APLS

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.94 -1.97%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.32 +.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 -.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.84 -.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -3.57%

• NYSE Arms .95 +20.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.15 -.11%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 393.0 +.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.38 +3.16%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -20.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.35 -1.85%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.15 +1.45%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.36 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread .25 +1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 17.5 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 +5.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.19 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% unch.

• Yield Curve .07+2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.76%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +10.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +6.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +6.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -1.7% 2) Telecom -1.5% 3) REITs -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RGNX, LL, PGR and APLS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LQD 2) KEM 3) AVGO 4) OSTK 5) ADVM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TLRA 2) CBOE 3) WORK 4) XEL 5) TWTR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +1.8% 2) Road & Rail +1.6% 3) Agriculture +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDLA, KEM, CARS, LCI, DAN, AGS, RMBS, RCG, IGT, GEL, MDC, SHLX, OI, NS, TGI, DCP, CQP, CEQP, INGN, REVG and ENBL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RMBS 2) SGMS 3) BHGE 4) PHM 5) LYB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NET 2) MDC 3) KEM 4) AVY 5) BITA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 53.0% of Issues Advancing, 45.0% Declining
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 62.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0%
• Vix 13.5 -4.9%
• Total Put/Call .85 +1.19%
• TRIN/Arms .80 -38.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.11 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for August is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• The Import Price Index ex Petro for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in July.
• The Export Price Index MoM for August is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in July.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Sept. is estimated to rise to 90.8 versus 89.8 in August. 
• Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report and Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept. could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.1% 2) Gaming +1.8% 3) Homebuilders +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IMXI, MRNA, UGLD, LGND, RDUS, RGNX, FNKO, PDP, CHD, ERJ, VAR, RH, EIDX, LKQ, AYX, YELP, REVG, LX, CDLX, MLNX, EHTH, ZTO, ECH, XERS, TPB, CCS and TWLO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LKQ 2) XLB 3) LEN 4) ORCL 5) APC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ABBV 2) MRNA 3) BX 4) ATVI 5) SHW

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 51.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.3% Declining
• 120 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 62.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.5%
• Vix 14.1 -3.2%
• Total Put/Call .72 -5.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +52.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.50 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.71 +.05%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.57%.

• S&P 500 futures +.50%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.76%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (DLTH)/.11
• (KR)/.41
• (MCFT)/.81

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/5.13
• (ORCL)/.81

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in July. 
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 215K versus 217K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1675K versus 1662K prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Aug. is estimated at -$197.5B versus -$119.7B in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB rate decision, Eurozone Industrial Production report, ECB Press Conference, $16B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Democratic Presidential debate, (USB) investor day, (CRM) investor meeting, (CRL) investor day and the (MA) investment community meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.