Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,143.26 -.83%
DJIA 10,074.05 -.53%
NASDAQ 1,924.07 -.43%
Russell 2000 587.58 -1.24%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,268.55 -.89%
S&P Barra Growth 552.90 -.71%
S&P Barra Value 586.11 -.95%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 570.33 -1.0%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 698.13 -1.03%
Morgan Stanley Technology 431.28 -.29%
Transports 3,418.79 -.87%
Utilities 362.06 -.45%
Put/Call .81 -14.74%
NYSE Arms 1.14 +1.61%
Volatility(VIX) 16.01 +7.02%
ISE Sentiment 141.00 -9.62%
US Dollar 83.48 -.33%
CRB 306.46 +.81%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.40 +.21%
Unleaded Gasoline 157.70 +.38%
Natural Gas 7.11 +.99%
Heating Oil 150.30 +.74%
Gold 436.50 +.48%
Base Metals 128.48 +1.73%
Copper 150.95 +2.58%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.23% +.47%

Leading Sectors
Networking +.85%
Internet +.83%
Software -.37%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -2.12%
Gaming -2.38%
I-Banks -2.54%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are modestly lower mid-day on inflation worries. The Portfolio is slightly higher on gains in my Internet and Networking longs. I exited a few Gaming longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is weak, almost every sector is lower and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is also negative, considering recent strong earnings reports and the bond market’s muted reaction to the CPI report. Base Metal stocks are falling, notwithstanding today’s rise in the underlying commodities. I am looking to short these stocks after their recent bounces. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The global economy may be “damped further” by rising oil prices and Europe may be threatened by weaker growth, Swiss National Bank directorate member Philipp Hildebrand said.
- GM said “there is no issue” over the world’s largest automaker’s ability to repay $300 billion in debt.
- US 10-year T-notes fell for the second day in three after the March consumer price index climbed more than forecast.

Wall Street Journal:
- Google may report net income for 2005 even higher than last year’s $399 million, in part because of deft accounting.
- Growing anti-Japanese sentiment in China reflects increasing rivalry for control of the world’s most economically dynamic region as much as historical resentment of Japan’s wartime occupation.
- European politicians are pulling back from support for free market policies in the face of rising unemployment and concern over international competition.
- US shopping mall vacancy in the first quarter remained at 5.3%, its lowest point in 3 ½ years, as rents fell, citing a 62-market survey.
- France’s Pernod Ricard SA and Fortune Brands have agreed to buy Allied Domecq Plc for about $14 billion.

NY Times:
- The Risk and Insurance Management Society called for an end to incentive compensation paid to insurance brokers as a way to avoid a conflict of interest.

Dow Jones:
- AOL has begun blocking Web sites identified as being used for stealing personal information from consumers.

NY Post:
- Morgan Stanley is offering bonuses of as much as $7 million to a dozen top executives to encourage them to stay after five senior officials left the firm recently.

O Estado de S. Paulo:
- The Brazilian unit of Wal-Mart more than tripled sales in 2004, gaining on rivals through lower prices and acquisitions.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- The German economy, Europe’s largest, faces the danger of deflation, the Economist Intelligence Unit said.

Economic Releases

- The Consumer Price Index for March rose .6% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a .4% gain in February.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for March rose .4% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .3% increase in February.
- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 15, 2005.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing called for an end to anti-Japanese protests after three weekends of demonstrations over textbooks in Japan and gas drilling rights in areas disputed by the two countries.
- China's economy, which accounted for a 10th of global growth last year, expanded 9.5% in the first quarter as consumers spent more and exports surged.

Wall Street Journal:
- US Airways Group and America West Airlines Holdings are in advanced merger talks.

Financial Times:
- The volume of equity issued in Europe this year has reached its highest since 2000, outpacing the US for the first time in the period.
- Indonesia's state oil company PT Pertamina and Exxon Mobil will restart negotiations today over the development of Cepu oilfield in Java as the country seeks to boost oil output.

Commercial Times:
- Dell Inc., Hewlett-Packard and Lenovo Group will buy about $35 billion of products from Taiwan this year.

China Daily:
- China's electric and electronics goods makers may have to spend as much as $10 billion on processing and distribution to meet two new European Union rules restricting the use of harmful substances.

Business Standard:
- Fidelity Investments collected $342 million for its first mutual fund in India.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAKE, INTC, YHOO, GILD and JNPR.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.74%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
MO/1.23
ALL/1.49
BK/.49
BLS/.38
CAI/.69
COF/1.93
CAT/1.36
EBAY/.18
FFIV/.29
F/.38
GD/1.53
HON/.40
HET/.94
JPM/.69
LIN/-.10
MERQ/.32
MOT/.19
QCOM/.27
RYL/1.23
STJ/.33
TK/1.60
UTX/1.25
VRSN/.21
WYE/.77

Splits
LUFK 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- The Consumer Price Index for March is estimated to rise .5% versus a .4% increase in February.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% increase in February.

2:00 EST
- Fed's Beige Book

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, spurred by gains in technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open higher on earnings optimsim. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.