Saturday, August 12, 2006

Chart of Interest

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BOTTOM LINE: Historically, the Fed does not raise the Fed Funds rate substantially above the 10-year T-note yield. As of now, with the 10-year yield 29 basis points below the Fed Funds rate, I expect the Fed to remain on hold at the upcoming Sept. 20 meeting.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,266.74 -.99%*

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Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,266.74 -.99%
DJIA 11,088.03 -1.35%
NASDAQ 2,057.71 -1.31%
Russell 2000 679.04 -3.17%
Wilshire 5000 12,635.11 -1.32%
S&P Barra Growth 585.40 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 679.73 -1.43%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 619.97 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.97 -2.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 464.55 -.66%
Transports 4,141.62 -5.41%
Utilities 432.96 -.25%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 95.47 -.45%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 6,108 -8.0%
Bloomberg Oil % Bulls 50.0 +25.0%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 197,612 +4.0%
Put/Call .92 -21.37%
NYSE Arms 1.16 -20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 14.30 -.28%
ISE Sentiment 112.00 +3.70%
AAII % Bulls 36.59 +16.31%
AAII % Bears 41.46 -12.14%
US Dollar 85.49 +1.08%
CRB 344.53 -1.58%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.50 unch.

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 74.35 -.51%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.43 -7.6%
Natural Gas 7.27 -.01%
Heating Oil 204.06 -2.32%
Gold 642.00 -2.64%
Base Metals 224.87 -2.06%
Copper 348.25 -3.66%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.96% +1.22%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.55% -1.21%

Leading Sectors
Internet +1.57%
Hospitals +1.36%
Tobacco +.45%
Energy +.27%
Networking +.05%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -3.80%
Steel -4.13%
Alternative Energy -4.43%
Homebuilders -6.05%
Airlines -10.25%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US raised its terror alert to the highest level for flights from the UK afer the discovery of a "well-advanced plan" that suggested al-Qaeda was plotting to use liquid explosives and detonators disguised as electronic devices to blow up jetliners in midair, officials said.
- Crude oil traded near its lowest level this month after a foiled terrorist plot to attack airlines raised concern travelers will avoid flying, reducing jet-fuel demand.
- Japan’s economy grew .8%, less than half the pace expected, in the quarter ended June 30 as companies such as Toshiba at into stockpiles to keep up with demand.
- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as growth in the world's second largest economy cooled more than expected.
- GM(GM), DaimlerChrysler AG and BMW AG are investing more than $1 billion combined on a shared gasoline-electric system for autos that will compete with hybrid leader Toyota Motor(TM).
- Brocade Communications(BRCD) officers and directors agreed to strengthen corporate governance at the software maker and to help pay $525,000 in legal fees to settle shareholder lawsuits over stock-option backdating.
- Evercore Partners, the investment bank co-founded by former Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman, raised $83 million in an IPO as investors bet more companies will turn to independent advisers for help with mergers and acquisitions.
- Harley-Davidson(HDI) is changing its stock symbol to “HOG,” a slang term for large motorcycles the company is famous for making.
- Target Corp.(TGT), JC Penney(JCP) and Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), defying predictions of a slowdown in consumer spending, reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates as sales of women’s accessories, clothing and food accelerated.
- Spot prices for alumina have collapsed 56% since March, according the Metal Bulletin. Chinese aluminum exports are likely to rise 100% over the next 12-18 months, according to Morgan Stanley.

NY Times:
- The US Dept. of Homeland Security urged users of Microsoft’s Windows operating system to install a patch that fixes a security flaw in the software.

Financial Times:
- Over 50% of Britons aged between 16 and 24 use social networking Web sites at least once a week.

Financial News:
- Posco may invest in the development of Canada’s oil sands.

AFP:
- British Prime Minister Tony Blair says an agreement on a UN resolution for the Middle East conflict could be reached “within the next 24 hours.”
- Muslims living in the UK will have “a sense of unease” over the fallout on their communities from the arrest of 24 people in connection with a probe into an alleged plot to blow up aircraft bound for the US, citing Inayat Bunglawala, a spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain. “All right-thinking people must support the police in the intelligence-led actions they take to foil terrorist plots,” Bunglawala said.

Yomiuri:
- Sixty-five percent of Japanese people surveyed said China was “untrustworthy,” while 66% said relations between Japan and China were “bad.”

Star:
- Malaysia’s first shipment of biodiesel will leave for Europe next week. About 60,000 tons of biodiesel processed by Carotino Sdn. will be sent to Germany on Aug. 15.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $24.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (JCP), target $80.

Business Week:
- Repligen Corp.(RGEN), a drug development company, could win 1% to 2% of ImClone Systems’(IMCL) Erbitux sales, citing Eric Ende of Merrill Lynch.
- Commercial Metals(CMC) is a potential takeover target, citing S&P analyst Leo Larkin.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.23%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- (WFC) 2-for-1
- (RAI) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise .8% versus a .1% gain in June.
- Advance Retail Sales for July are estimated to rise .9% versus a .1% decline in June.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for July are estimated to rise .5% versus a .3% increase in June.

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for June are estimated to rise .5% versus a .8% increase in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in technology shares are offsetting losses in commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

***Alert***

Posting will be light through the weekend. I will try and post the Friday Watch later this evening. Sorry for the inconvenience.