Thursday, July 03, 2008

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+.55%)

Sector Outperformers:

Road & Rail (+2.18%), Airlines (+1.58%) and Internet (+1.19%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TKC, AIXG, AZN, GSK, SU, VIP, SI, XOM, MPS, AGP, PXP, APC, CHDX, WDFC, OSIR, AAUK, AVID, CHFC, AVCT, WERN, SHLM, AMGN, PSMT, OMRI, CBRL, GTLS, CELG, ASTE, ASML, WGOV, UFCS, FAST, BSY and AZN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) VCLK 2) PENN 3) MET 4) URS 5) JEF

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Brazil’s Bovespa stock index may drop on further declines in commodity prices, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. “By far the biggest long-term risk for Latin American equities is a collapse in commodity prices,” Citigroup strategists including Geoffrey Dennis wrote.
- Pessimism about US stocks increased in the past week to match the highest level of the year. The proportion of bearish newsletter writers climbed 5.4 points to 44.7 percent during the week ended yesterday, according to a survey released today by New Rochelle, New York-based Investors Intelligence. That was equal to the 2008 high in the week ended March 18, when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index began a 12 percent rebound from its lows of the year. Optimism about U.S. stocks dropped for a fourth week, with bullish stock advisers retreating 1.8 point to 31.9 percent. The proportion predicting a correction, or 10 percent plunge in benchmark indexes, fell to 23.4 percent from 27 percent, Investors Intelligence said.
- The LA Times announced plans to cut 250 jobs, including 150 positions in news, in an effort to bring costs into line with declining revenue. The publication also plans to reduce the number of pages it publishes each week by 15%. The cuts in editorial amount to 17% of the newsroom staff.
- Platinum and palladium fell after U.S. auto sales fell in June, fueling concerns that demand for the metals used in car parts will slow. ``We are becoming increasingly concerned about China slowing and its impact on metal demand,'' John Reade, the head of UBS AG metals strategy in London, said in an e-mailed note. ``In an interesting e-mail conversation with the head of trading at a major Chinese precious metals company over the weekend, weakness in the equity market was cited as one of the main factors behind a sharp turn down in appetite for precious metals in China in the past couple of months.''
- Nvidia Corp.(NVDA), the second-biggest maker of computer-graphics chips, plunged 20 percent in extended trading after cutting its second-quarter sales forecast because of a drop in demand and increased competition.
- The Nikkei 225 Stock Average's longest losing streak in 43 years belies its top performance among Asia's biggest equity markets as investors bet the end of deflation will lift the economy and spur demand for equities
.

Wall Street Journal:
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) is talking to Time Warner Inc.(TWX) about a possible combination as Microsoft Corp. weighs another bid for the Internet company.

CNBC.com:
- Will Europe Make Things Worse for Investors?

CNNMoney.com:
- Bye-bye gas subsidies. Could higher gasoline prices in China and India mean lower prices here in the US?

The Deal.com:
- Job Watch: Hedge funds hiring.

TimesOnline:
- The mastermind of America’s largest hedge fund scam surrenders to police after faking his own death to avoid jail.

South China Morning Post:
- A mainland think-tank has forecast that inflation will reach 7% or higher this year, well beyond Beijing’s target, and is advising the central government to stick to its tight monetary policy.

Xinhua:
- Chinese exporters face emerging problem of defaulted payments.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for June is estimated at -60K versus -49K in May.
- The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated to fall to 5.4% versus 5.5% in May.
- Average Hourly Earnings for June are estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 385K versus 384K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3125K versus 3139K prior.

10:00 am EST:
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 51.7 in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the close. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Lows, Weighed Down by Commodity, Airline, Road & Rail, Construction Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories

Today’s Movers

Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Style Performance

Commodity Movers

Market Wrap CNBC Video
(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

GuruFocus.com

PM Market Call

After-hours Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask

After-hours Stock Quote

After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Surging Oil, Rising Global Growth Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Alternative Energy longs and Software longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 7.1% and is now high at 25.3. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 112.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.01. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day and is currently 1.68. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is down .95% today to 95.29 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. . However, the TED spread is rising 5.96% to .98. Due to recent market volatility, I am unable to blog as much as normal. Sorry for the inconvenience. Nikkei futures indicate a -56 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +16 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on surging oil, record short-selling and rising global growth worries.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Steelmakers including Nucor Corp.(NUE), the largest US-based producer, plunged in NY on speculation the slowing US economy and falling auto sales will reduce demand for the metal.
- Buffett’s Berkshire Has Worst First Half Since 1990.

Wall Street Journal:
- Investors once clamored to get into Ritchie Capital Management, a high-profile hedge fund. Now, some are scrambling to get out – and are finding the doors locked.

- Iraqi Expats Fear US Impatience, Says al-Farragh.

Calcalist:
- Nvidia Corp.(NVDA), the second-biggest maker of computer-graphics chips, may be in talks to buy Zoran Corp.(ZRAN).

Trading Markets.com:
- Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Inc., bought 2,273,600 shares on the open market.

Stern:
- Billionaire George Soros said US pension funds should be prohibited from trading in raw materials to curb the continuing increases of oil and food prices.