Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Growth -.91%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal irlind (-5.7%), Steel (-3.92%) and Oil Service (-3.13%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PLLL, HOC, CLF, TTES, NUE, CMC, STLD, PBR, PCZ, IDCC, CENX, CTCM, GYMB, JRCC, GMXR, MHGC, TITN, CAVM, FSYS, BPT, EMC, EBF and BAP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) SPG 2) ARO 3) FWLT 4) GLW 5) TLM

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Value (-.15%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+6.19%), Drugs (+2.30%) and HMOs (+2.19%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PSMT, EBS, FLO, GSK, LLY, STC, XL, TEVA, TRLG, ESPW, WDFC, HELE, CYBX, MRTN, IPAR, LEAP, DMND, RICK, OZRK, ALEX, CELG, ALGT, CLNE, GENZ, IDRA, RBCAA, ANL, HTV, KNM and CSH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) COG 2) ABT 3) SPG 4) ODP 5) HOLX

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Monday, July 07, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China's 146 million stock investors, burned by slumping prices, are pulling money out of equities and putting it into deposits. That's not necessarily a good thing for banks
- Australian business confidence fell to the lowest level in seven years in June as cooling domestic demand and spiraling raw-material costs eroded corporate profits
.
- New Zealand companies say sales and trading will decline in the third quarter, pushing profit expectations to a 25-year low, as economic growth slumps.

Wall Street Journal:
- China Scrambles to Meet Deadlines for Olympics. Transit, Construction Fall Behind Schedule As Pollution Persists.
- Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb took himself out of consideration as a vice-presidential candidate amid growing speculation that he was on Sen. Barack Obama's shortlist of possible running mates
.

MarketWatch.com:
- Unfortunately for the gold market, contrarians would not be surprised to see more of the same. That's because sentiment among gold timers remains too frothy to support a significant rally.
- Massive housing legislation moved one step closer to passage Monday night, as senators voted to limit debate on the package.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Germany Plans 30 More Wind Farms.
- The Coming of the Car-Bot. In the near future, autonomous driving will lead to safer roads and great fuel-efficiency.
- Regulation Looms for Prediction Markets. The CFTC is likely to become involved in regulating event futures – and it just may boost these markets.

Global Pensions:
- Quantitative managers have admitted they are likely to become less transparent, following lessons learnt from the credit crisis. As a result of the difficulties, around 40% of the quant world had exited, which left it feeling more comfortable about the future.

IBD:
- Genzyme(GENZ) Taps Rare Disorders To Grow Profit.

CNNMoney.com:
- Oil speculation: Why we don’t have answers. There’s a lot we don’t know about how the oil futures markets now work. Congress should find out.

USA Today.com:
- Interactive TV ads are clicking with viewers.
- More cars sing with digital radio.
- GPS devices become a vital tool for business travelers.

Flight International:
- China gets strict on airline fleet expansion. Concerns about overcapacity and market volatility have led China’s National Development Reform Commission to become more stringent when deciding whether to let airlines increase their fleet size.

Reuters:
- Washington Post picks ex-WSJ boss for editor.
- Ambac(ABK) says has enough funds to meet obligations.
- JPMorgan(JPM) 75% done with tough Bear integration.
- Bigger may be better as smaller hedge funds give up.

Financial Times:
- The biggest hedge funds are on a hiring binge, taking advantage of cutbacks at investment banks to recruit star traders, senior executives and whole teams to help them expand.
- Microsoft(MSFT) set the stage for a full-blown battle to overthrow Yahoo's(YHOO) board of directors on Monday when it declared it was interested in reopening talks to buy all or part of the internet company - but only if a new board was appointed first.

TimesOnline:
- There are new signals today that Britain is on the brink of recession, with confirmation that the bulk of the economy is sliding rapidly into a severe downturn.

Expansion:
- The European Central Bank has no bias on the future path of interest rates, executive member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said. She said the whole governing council backs President Jean-Claude Trichet in that position and takes the view that last week’s interest-rate increase will help to deliver price stability in the medium term. Tumpel-Gugerell also said that all countries must fight inflation and interest rates in China are low.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (HCC), lowered estimates, lowered target to $29.
- Reiterated Buy on (GME), target $66.
- Upgraded (MMC) to Buy, raised target to $33.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.62%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.61%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HELE)/.30
- (PBG)/.75
- (AA)/.66
- (ZZ)/.04
- (GBX)/.46

Upcoming Splits
- (PCU) 3-for-1
- (ATW) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- Pending Home Sales for May are estimated to fall 3.0% versus a 6.0% increase in April.
- Wholesale Inventories for May are estimated to rise .7% versus a 1.3% gain in April.

3:00 pm EST:
- Consumer Credit for May is estimated to rise $7.5 billion versus an $8.9 billion gain in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales report, (DLM) analyst day, (HANS) business update, (AZZ) shareholders meeting, (ATVI) special meeting, (SEL) shareholders meeting, (CCUR) special meeting, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth Conference and CE Unterberg Towbin Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Energy, Construction, Financial and Homebuilding Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories

Today’s Movers

Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Style Performance

Commodity Movers

Market Wrap CNBC Video
(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

GuruFocus.com

PM Market Call

After-hours Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask

After-hours Stock Quote

After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Commodity shorts. I added to my (QQQQ)/(IWM) hedges and then covered some of them today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is rising 1.21% and is high at 25.09. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 87.0 and the total put/call is very high at 1.24. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day and is currently .99. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is down 1.67% today to 93.92 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.05% today to 145.68, which is also a positive. However, the TED spread is rising 2.34% to .98. Market-leading growth stocks are especially strong today. Insider buying was brisk again last week, especially in the technology, communication, financial and utility sectors. ETM, DKS, VR, EBTX, RPSD, MAQ, CPRT, CSE, EPD, EQY, WAL, ESGR, LCAPA and DELL were securities with significant insider buys last week. Nikkei futures indicate an +95 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +10 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and bargain-hunting.