Stocks Finish at Session Highs, Boosted by Financial, Commodity, Construction and Semi Shares

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Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Rising Oil Offsets Less Economic Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Alternative Energy longs offset losses in my Internet longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is rising .05% and is still above-average at 22.04. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 110.0 and the total put/call is about average at .87. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly below average most of the day and is currently .79. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 2.65% today to 79.42 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is -2.15% today to 130.17 basis points. The TED spread is rising 1.12% to 1.10. Today’s action is more constructive taking into consideration yesterday’s advance and today’s $4.60 jump in oil. The fact that the financials etf(XLF), which has a negative -.95 correlation with oil, is maintaining recent gains is especially positive. Merrill(MER) is trading up another 2.4%. Half the financial newsletter writers are bearish, the most since 1995, which also bodes well for an extension of recent gains. The last time stock pessimism was this high was in January 1995, a month before the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 4,000 for the first time and began an advance of more than 100 percent over the next five years. The Citi eurozone economic surprise index is now -155.70 versus +29.40 in the US. I still think the US dollar has further upside over the short and intermediate-term. Nikkei futures indicate an +77 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +25 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing financial sector pessimism and less economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Iraq’s daily oil production is the highest since March 2003. A $34 million security system of ditches, fences and concertina wire has stopped attacks since July 2007 on the pipeline from Kirkuk in the north to a major refinery in Baiji, central Iraq, according to the report. The result has been a substantial rise in crude oil exports from the north, Bowen said. ``Iraq's burgeoning oil windfall, which has yielded more than $33 billion in revenues to date in 2008,'' may result in another $7 billion that could be spent on reconstruction as U.S. spending winds down, Bowen said. Analysts say Iraq has the world's third-largest reservoir of untapped crude oil. Contributing to Iraq's improved security was the so-called surge of almost 30,000 U.S. military personnel that ended this month plus operations of the Iraq Security Forces, who cleared Muslim militias from Basra, Baghdad's Sadr City, Mosul and Amara, said Bowen, who for the third time this year reported increasing improvements in Iraq's security and economy. The Iraqi government plans to build similar protection systems for the pipelines between Baghdad and Karbala and between Baiji and Baghdad, the Pentagon said.
- Spain's economy expanded the least in 15 years in the second quarter as record oil prices and the collapse in homebuilding destroyed jobs and sapped spending, the central bank said.
- Crude oil rose more than $3 after the US Energy Dept. reported the first decline in inventories in five weeks. U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.2 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the department said. The drop in gasoline inventories last week left stockpiles 3 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said. Gasoline demand in the U.S. peaks during the summer, when Americans take to the highways for vacations. The so-called driving season lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to Labor Day in early September.
- Gold traded near a three-week low in Asia as a stronger dollar and falling energy costs eroded demand for bullion as an inflation haven.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today he will step down ``with honor'' when the ruling Kadima party chooses a new chief in September, ending 2 1/2 years in power amid a corruption scandal.
- Europeans' confidence in the outlook for the economy dropped the most since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks as soaring energy costs and the euro's advance against the dollar rattled consumers and executives.
- Nintendo Co., the world's second- largest maker of home video-game players, reported first-quarter profit rose 34 percent as the Wii console extended its lead over Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360.

Wall Street Journal:
- Target Corp.(TGT) is offering its Web site customers who buy consumer electronics next-day installation services through a new third-party supplier, Zip Express. It's the first time Target has offered installation services.

Washington Post:
- The House of Representatives issued an apology to black Americans for slavery more than 140 years after its abolition. Senator Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat, is considering introducing a similar resolution in the Senate.

VentureBeat:
- Google(GOOG) is the sleeping giant when it comes to advertising in video games. While the company dominates search advertising, it has yet to make a big splash in video games. That could change soon, as the company has been quietly testing its “AdSense for Games” product for months.

Politico:
- Seeking to both elevate and diminish his rival's status, John McCain is up with a new ad featuring images of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears but declaring that they take a back seat to Barack Obama. "He's the biggest celebrity in the world," says the announcer of Obama, set to images from his massive Berlin speech. "But is he ready to lead?" (video)

Boston Globe:
- The House today voted 118 to 35 to repeal a 1913 state law that prevents gay and lesbian couples from most other states from marrying in Massachusetts. The measure, which the Senate passed earlier this month, will head to the desk of Governor Deval Patrick, who is expected to sign it into law. The move will clear the way for out-of-state couples to marry in Massachusetts, making it the second state to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry regardless of their place of residence.

Reuters:
- Pacific Investment Management Co.(PIMCO) plans to offer its first bond exchange-traded fund, citing documents filed with the SEC.

Daily Telegraph:
- The Italian economy is getting so bad that the country may face pressure to withdraw from the European Union’s monetary union, according to a report by Capital Economics. Business confidence has fallen to the lowest since October 2001, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The country is disproportionately hit by the high euro because it relies heavily on "mid-tech" exports that compete toe-to-toe with Asian goods.

Independent.ie:
- None of the office space that's earmarked for completion in Dublin's city centre during the second half of this year has been pre-let to clients and less than 18pc of the space built during the second quarter of this year was pre-let. The figures released by estate agent Lisney suggest a sharp reversal is occurring in the fortunes of the country's commercial property developers.

International Herald Tribune:
- Nearly 4.8 billion passengers took to the air last year, with Atlanta's Hartsfield International atop the list of the world's busiest terminals, followed by Chicago's O'Hare and London's Heathrow.

Andina:
- Newmont Mining Corp.’s(NEM) new gold mill may boost output by 11% at its Yanacocha mine in Peru. The $250 million facility could increase annual gold production at Yanacocha to 2 million ounces from 1.8 million ounces this year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -1.07%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines irlind (-5.22%), Oil Tankers (-3.77%) and REITs (-2.30%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ELN, ULTI, GRMN, ELON, JLL, WYE, ONXX, CTV, ALGN, SPSS, ERTS, HWAY, TTMI, EEFT, LFG, CBG and HBI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) URI 2) KFT 3) WYE 4) ELN 5) CEPH

ADP Jobs Report Much Better Than Estimates

- The ADP Employment Change for July was +9K versus estimates of -60K and -77K in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Companies in the US unexpectedly added an estimated 9,000 jobs in July, Bloomberg reported. Service providers added 74,000 workers, with financial firms increasing jobs by 4,000. Construction employment fell by 16,000. Large companies cut payrolls by 32,000, while small companies increased payrolls by 50,000. The US Dollar Index is rising another .13% and the 10-year yield is 5 basis points higher on today’s reports. I expect the change in non-farm payrolls to come in better than estimates of -75K this Friday.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+1.41%)

Sector Outperformers:

Semis (+2.64%), Energy (+2.59%) and Steel (+2.42%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TKC, HES, WB, TIN, MBT, RIO, SI, BAC, RTP, MDVN, VPHM, JNPR, AMMD, BWLD, ADVS, PRSC, BBSI, NATI, ACLI, SAIA, RSYS, KEYN, XLTC, HTCH, SVVS, STAR, BECN, LRCX, APEI, SDXC, ALXN, FISV, AVP, LZ, SSD, TWP, JNY, ROC and STE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) HA 2) KFT 3) ELN 4) CMI 5) ERTS