- The cost to protect against defaults by homebuilders including DR Horton(DHI), Lennar Corp.(LEN) and KB Home(KBH) fell after the US Senate voted to include a tax credit for homebuyers in the government’s stimulus plan. Credit-default swaps on Fort Worth, Texas-based DR Horton fell 24 basis points to 358 basis points, the lowest in more than seven months, according to CMA DataVision.Contracts on Miami-based Lennar dropped 15 basis points to 585 basis points, and KB Home of Los Angeles declined 35 basis points to 445, CMA data show. The Senate unanimously approved a Republican amendment yesterday that would temporarily offer homebuyers a tax credit up to $15,000, costing the government $18 billion.
- The US Oil Fund(USO), an exchange-traded fund betting the price of crude will rise, holds more than 20% of outstanding March futures contracts.The fund, which tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, owned about 79,000 March futures as of Feb. 4, according to the fund’s Web site.That’s more than four times the size of its holdings at the beginning of December.
- President Obama ordered the Department of Energy on Thursday to set tough new energy-efficiency standards for a broad range of home appliances, from dishwashers and ovens to lamps and air conditioners. That's a sharp break from Bush administration policy. It's also the latest sign Obama plans to move aggressively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He's already pushed to double renewable energy in five years and boost fuel efficiency in vehicles. Although final rules have yet to be issued, Obama indicated Thursday that appliance standards would be dramatically tightened.
AP:
- In a move aimed at limiting harm to Arctic waters opened by global warming, a federal advisory board voted Thursday to ban commercial fishing north of the Bering Strait off Alaska's coast. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council, meeting in Seattle, voted unanimously to prohibit industrial fishing in nearly 200,000 square miles of U.S. waters in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to approve the recommendation. The fishery council has primary responsibility for managing Bering Sea groundfish, including Alaska pollock, the largest U.S. fishery by volume. Annual catches average 2.5 billion pounds and provide raw material for fishsticks and fast-food fish sandwiches.
- Shanghai home prices may fall further because the supply of new apartments is increasing, citing real estate agents and analysts.There were 8.4 million square meters(90 million square feet) of completed new apartments ready for sale at the end of January, close to total new home sales in the city in 2008, citing local government statistics.This “huge” inventory, which will take about 10 months for the local market to absorb, puts pressure on prices in districts such as Jing’an.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup: - Reiterated Buy on (ENR), Added to Top Picks Live List, target $85.
- Reiterated Buy on (RATE), target $41.
- We are raising our 4Q08 EPS estimates for (ARO), (GPS), (LTD), (ROST) & (TJX) and lowering our 4Q08 EPS estimate for (CHS), (PLCE) and (URBN).
Night Trading Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for January is estimated at -540K versus -524K in December.
- The Unemployment Rate for January is estimated at 7.5% versus 7.2% in December.
- Average Hourly Earnings for January are estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in December.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for December is estimated at -$3.5B versus -$7.9B in November.
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers - The Fed’s Yellen speaking, (EMR) analyst meeting, CSFB Financial Services Conference and CSFB Energy Summit could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs, Financial longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling -1.25% and is very high at 43.30. The ISE Sentiment Index is above average at 171.0 and the total put/call is below average at .77. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 3.34 at its intraday peak, and is currently .59. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.43% today to 114.0 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 2.1% to 198.0 basis points. The TED spread is rising 2.42% to 97 basis points. The TED spread is now down 369 basis points in under four months.The 2-year swap spread is falling 2.23% to 65.75 basis points.The Libor-OIS spread is falling .67% to 97 basis points.The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 5 basis points to 1.10%, which is down 160 basis points in under seven months.The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown.The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .27%, which is down 2 basis points today.Considering today’s news the broad market reversal higher on very healthy volume is a big positive.“Growth” stocks are again substantially outperforming “value” shares.Market-leading stocks are also much stronger than the broad market.The US sovereign debt credit default swap is plunging 14.1% today to 70.30, which is also a big positive.One negative I see today is the weakness in the REIT sector.The AAII % Bulls fell to 24.63%, while the % Bears fell to 44.0% this week, which remains a positive.Nikkei futures indicate a +240 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +46 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and less extreme economic pessimism.
- Oil prices may fall to $25 a barrel in the second quarter of 2009 before rebounding slowing in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley said.Slowing demand from China and Latin America and a “recent slew of dismal economic and trade data” were cited by analyst Hussein Allidina in a note to clients as the reasons behind the lower outlook.