Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Pre-Fed Jitters, Technical Selling, Pharma/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 -.09% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.7 euros/megawatt-hour +5.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.8 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.4 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.0 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(391 of 500 reporting) +11.7% -.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.02 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.35% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.80 -.09: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 30.0 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.04 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.6 +.1
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% +1.1 percentage points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% +.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.6 +6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 68.1% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.5%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +55 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +56 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long