Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.86 -.23%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +8.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.39% +7.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +.5 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.5 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +1.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +12.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.34 +.35: Growth Rate +12.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.5
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 424.78 +.88: Growth Rate +22.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.8 +.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.9 -.6 point
- US Yield Curve 45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -5.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 -26.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 59.6% (+19.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 52.2%(+8.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,120 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility/technology/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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