Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.19% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.44% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.6 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +1.6
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.40 -.01:  Growth Rate +12.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.34% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.21 -.26: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 32.0 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.7 -.5
• US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% -.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.8% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 66.9% (+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.8%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/utility/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long