Stocks Lower into Final Hour on "Big, Beautiful Bill" Passage Wrangling, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.48% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.0 euros/megawatt-hour +5.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.5 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.3 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +11.4% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.86 -.71:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.3 percentage point, P/E 21.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.31% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.54 +.05: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +19.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.8 -.5
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.6% -.2 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 71.2% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 52.1%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long