Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.2%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.59% +10.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +1.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.81 -.05: Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.31% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.80 +.26: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.2 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.1 -.7
- US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% -1.6 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.97 +5.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 71.2% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 50.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -347 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial/technology/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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