Stocks Rising Substantially into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, US Consumer Confidence Surge, Falling Long-Term Rates, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 -.11% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% -8.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.5 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.17 +.29:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.29% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 426.49 +.70: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.79 +33.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.0 +.5
• US Yield Curve 45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% -.2 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 -6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.9% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.8%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/utility/tech/financial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long