Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• US, China Cite ‘Substantial Progress’ in Geneva Trade Talks.
• Trump Pushes Ukraine Toward Russia Talks Without Ceasefire.
• India-Pakistan Ceasefire Holds After Four Days of Clashes.
• US, Iran Agree to More Nuclear Talks After ‘Useful’ Round.
• US Ambassador Says Canada Tariffs May Not Be ‘Totally Removed’.
• Toyota Faces Biggest Hit From Trump Tariffs Among Auto Companies.
• New Zealand Steps Up Plans to Ban Under-16s From Social Media.
• Stock Futures Advance After US, China Cite Trade Talk Progress.
• Oil Climbs After ‘Substantial Progress’ in US-China Trade Talks.
• Gold Falls as Trade Talks, Easing Tensions Impact Haven Demand.
• US Halts Cattle Imports Via Southern Border Over Screwworm Pest.
• Trump Seeks to Align US Drug Costs With Cheapest Ones Abroad.
• Trump’s Thirst for Cheap Oil Irks an Industry He Loves to Praise.
• OpenAI, Microsoft in Talks to Reset High-Stakes Partnership: FT.
• Traders Eye Longer-Term Options to Hedge Post-Tariff Shock Rally.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• US, China Agree: "Substantial Progress" On Trade Deal After "Very Constructive" 2 Days Of Negotiations.
• The Ominous "Other": Record Bearish Liquidation Is Misery For The Bears.
• Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.
• Ultra-Wealthy Make It Rain On Luxury Brands As Main Street Tightens Belt.
• Trump Doesn't Want Netanyahu To Spoil His Gulf Visit As Frustrations Boil.
• Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor Asks Lawyers To 'Stand Up' And 'Fight'. 
• They've Destroyed Jobs And Opportunity For Black Chicagoans. 
• DeBeers Shutting Down Its Lab-Grown Diamond Brand. 
• Freight Fraud, Cargo Theft, Deadly Collisions - Ghost Carriers Are Growing National Security Threat. 
• Is There More To The Fetterman Story?
• A Brief Visual History Of US Trade Disputes
• Is Biden's Family Deliberately Screwing With Democrats?
• Senators Cotton & Graham Work To Sabotage Chances Of Iran Deal.
• Teenagers With Mental Health Disorders Spend An Extra Hour On Social Media.
• "Glitches In System": Duffy Calls For Urgent Flight Slowdown After Newark Outages.
• Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.

Wall Street Journal:

• Bessent Says U.S.-China Trade Talks Were ‘Productive’.
• Trump’s Budget Hawk Takes Over the DOGE Agenda. First Up: The Military.
• ICC Set Plan to Charge Netanyahu Just After Prosecutor Was Accused of Sexual Assault.
• Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud Video of Sean Combs to Play Central Role in Trial.
• As ‘Grading for Equity’ Movement Grows, More Teachers Are Pushing Back.
• To Dominate the Arctic, Trump Needs Ice-Breaking Ships. Finland Wants to Help.
• The Best Outdoor Patio Furniture Chosen by Decorators and Garden Designers.
• 31 Gifts Every College Grad Will Appreciate.

CNBC:  

• White House announces U.S.-China trade deal, offers few details.
• Lutnick says 10% baseline tariff will stick around for “foreseeable future” .
• Trump’s trade war is giving renewed importance to advertising Upfronts.
• Saudi oil giant Aramco posts 5% dip in first-quarter profit on weaker crude prices.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Stock-market bulls face inflation test this week, but trade talks may set the tone.

NewsMax:

• Trump Team 'Encouraged' by Iran Nuclear Talks.
• Trump Pushes India for Deal on Kashmir.

Fox News:

• Dem denies ICE officer clash as video emerges: 'I honestly do not know how to body slam'.
• Zelenskyy agrees to high-stakes in-person meeting with Putin after Trump weighs in.
• Hamas claims it will release last living American hostage Edan Alexander held in Gaza.
• NYT columnist hits Biden with a harsh truth after he tries to turn narrative about himself around. 
• President Trump to sign executive order he says will have massive impact on US drug prices.
• Crockett claims Dems looking to run 'safest white boy' in 2028 — hints at specific candidate.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Newark Airport Radar Fails Again — Five Controllers Already on Trauma Leave Over Prior Outage.
• “G*d D*mn, These People Are Just Helpless” – James Carville Calls on Ilhan Omar to Start Her Own Party and Quit Hating Whitey (VIDEO) .
• SICK: Disgraced Former California ‘Teacher of the Year’ Gets 30 Years to Life in Prison for Molesting Elementary Students.
• Trump’s Approval Hits 50% – Hispanics Lead with 62% as Democrats Lose Ground with Independent Voters.
• Asian American Group Alleges Yale Continues To Engage In Affirmative Action Discrimination.
• Separatism Is Surging in Oil-Rich Province of Alberta, Where Many Want to Ditch Ultraliberal Canada and Become 51st State of the US.
• Magatte Wade, Why African Leaders Allow Climate Activists to Keep Their Countries in Poverty.
• Texas Halts 402-Acre Sharia Law-Linked Muslim Community Development Amid Multiple Criminal Investigations.
• Jamie Dimon Fires Kill Shot at Democrat Party in Palisades, CA: “I’d Change the Name from Red Tape to Blue Tape Because It’s Democrats that Want More Regulations” (VIDEO).
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Epstein Files Likely Destroyed, Claims Israel and UK Still Hold Remaining Evidence — Believes ‘He Didn’t Kill Himself’.
• Hawaii Sues Oil Companies Over Climate Change – Exempts One Refinery That Donates to Democrats.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Rat People’: China’s Gen Z Takes ‘Lying Flat’ Lifestyle to New Level.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• BREAKING: In the midst of war, 𝕏 remains the #1 News App in India. People are placing their trust in 𝕏 over traditional media, and Community Notes is playing a key role in debunking false rumors in real time.
• The rate of improvement on the robot is absolutely insane. And it continues. (video)
• The people of the ‘Party of Women’ in my city believe illegal aliens who beat the shit out of pregnant women should stay in this country. Yeah, sorry — No. 
• First come the migrants, then the papers, then the votes. The left is attempting to engineer Europe’s political future, one citizenship at a time. This isn't integration - it's substitution - let's not pretend we're blind to it. We won’t trade our Christian roots for a manufactured future. (video)

• @Zerohedge 

• Trust the good old Fund Managers Survey to panic right at the bottom. On April 15 sentiment was "record bearish" (see below). Guess what happened next.

• @MarioNawful

• DAVID SACKS: U.S.-UAE AI ALLIANCE KEY TO OUTPACING CHINA. David Sacks, the White House’s top official for AI and crypto, just wrapped up a high-stakes meeting in the UAE with Sheikh Tahnoon—one of the most powerful men in the Middle East and chair of a $1.5 trillion investment empire. The goal? Make sure America stays the world’s go-to partner for artificial intelligence and emerging tech.
• POPE LEO XIV: “NO MORE WAR!” IN GLOBAL DEBUT. In his first Sunday address, Pope Leo XIV called for peace in Ukraine, a Gaza ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and praised the India-Pakistan truce. He warned the world is living through a “Third World War in pieces” and urged leaders to seek real, lasting peace. Over 100,000 gathered in St. Peter’s Square, just after bands marched past playing Y.M.C.A. and Rocky. Leo, the first U.S.-born pope, hasn’t mentioned his homeland — and some Americans are not thrilled. (video) 
• TRUMP: MY NEXT TRUTH WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT AND IMPACTFUL I HAVE EVER ISSUED. (video) 
• QUANTUM COMPUTERS MIGHT JUST SAVE THE WORLD?! Imagine a computer so powerful, it could crack problems that make today’s best supercomputers cry. Quantum computers don’t just crunch numbers — they bend reality (okay, quantum reality) to solve stuff like cancer, Alzheimer’s, and even global warming. Our current climate “solutions” are like putting a band-aid on a volcano. But quantum machines could help find cheap, energy-light ways to trap carbon — and finally slow down the planet’s fever. (video)
• AMAZON’S NEW ROBOT “FEELS” — AND IT’S CHANGING WHAT HUMAN WORK LOOKS LIKE. Meet Vulcan, Amazon’s latest warehouse bot that can “feel” what it picks up—grabbing high and low shelves, climbing ladders, and handling the repetitive strain stuff that usually sends people to physical therapy. Amazon says robots now touch 75% of customer orders—and they’re training warehouse staff to become robot techs, floor monitors, and reliability engineers. Not just new roles—new job categories. No, it’s not a 1:1 swap: not everyone wants to be a robot whisperer. But the idea that warehouse jobs are locked into the same routine forever? Also gone. (video)
• DID SCIENTISTS JUST CURE BALDNESS? Forget rubbing donkey hooves on your head. UCLA scientists found a molecule — PP405 — that wakes up sleeping hair follicles and tells them, “Do your job.” In early trials, people rubbed it on their scalps before bed. One week later? Boom — actual hair, not sad fuzz. Thick, terminal strands. The kind you don’t have to squint to see. It blocks a protein that keeps follicles asleep. Turns out, your scalp isn’t dead — just lazy. The team’s backed by Google Ventures and already raised $16 million, which is more than most hair-loss companies make before they vanish in a cloud of regret and beard oil. It’s not FDA-approved yet.  
• GOOGLE’S HOLLYWOOD MOVE: AI ISN’T JUST WRITING SCRIPTS — IT’S PRODUCING THEM NOW. Google and Range Media are launching AI on Screen and 100 Zeros, two new film initiatives backing movies that don’t just feature AI — they use it. The plan? Fund short films and series that explore AI’s ethical chaos, emotional impact, and future role in our lives. These aren’t just YouTube experiments either — they’re headed for major streaming platforms. The first projects, Sweetwater and Lucid, drop later this year. 
• WHEN CHINA INVESTS IN LATIN AMERICA... WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD. China has been quietly building power across Latin America and the Caribbean — not with armies, but with airports, railways, and solar farms. This is called the China-CELAC Forum, where CELAC stands for the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. Basically: a group of 33 countries teaming up with China to get stuff built. 
  

• @LauraLoomer 

• Not only will the President of the United States be flying around on a $400 million jet paid for by Qatar, but don’t forget, our own US Attorney General Pam Bondi @AGPamBondi was once a registered foreign lobbyist on behalf of Qatar. Bondi was compensated $115,000 per month by Qatar. Qatar has given over $1.8 billion to HAMAS over the years. That’s an incredible amount of influence for Qatar, a country that harbors Islamic terrorists, to have with our most senior officials. (pic)
• MAHA Grifters are now trying to say that this picture is fake. These people are total liars. Here’s the proof. The screenshot was archived on the End Chronic Disease website. Now it’s been scrubbed. The bio for @DrMakaryFDA said Co-founder of @TrueMedPayments. True Med was founded by @calleymeans, the brother of the newly appointed Surgeon General. People love lying to cover their own tracks. But archives don’t lie. See the archive below. It’s since been scrubbed. (pic)
• It’s pretty funny how @JohnCornyn is now trying to gaslight people into thinking that he cares about the EPIC Sharia compound that is being erected in Texas. This is a man who has enabled the Islamic invasion of Texas. (video)

• @amuse

• LAWFARE: We've got a real problem in the courts when a Supreme Court justice is publicly telling America's lawyers and judges to resist the Trump administration. Sotomayor is a disgrace to the bench.
• DOGE: This is insane. The moment Kamala Harris lost the election, Biden began sending Democrat-aligned NGOs & companies $1.3 billion per day, almost $100 billion before Trump took office. In the prior 15 years the same loan office gave out just $40 billion, just $8 million a day. This was theft on a scale the world has never seen before. Trump needs to claw this money back. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• I’m shocked that @FoxNews aired this and it shows the true independence of
  @JesseBWatters (you get big creds for raising this). The $64K ? is what now
  @AGPamBondi … When will we see arrests of those who abused children? Even if it means exposing some of the biggest elites in our government or other elite circles. We’re waiting for an answer. (video)

• @FiveTimesAugust

• Never forget. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• This is actually extremely seriously. Glenn Beck “The medical thing that they just passed in Washington state. They passed it, and the governor has signed it, and basically it says if there's an immediate medical emergency, we can do whatever we want to. You now, remember, this is the state that was talking about building little internment camps for people who wouldn't get vaccinated last time”. “If you think that they won't do that, you're out of your mind. You're crazy. And so it says if the governor decides that there is a medical emergency, statewide emergency, I love this one, ‘based on scientific experts’ they will dictate what happens to every individual, what you have to get. If scientific experts tell you have to take this, you will be forced to take that.“ “If you're living in Washington state, may I just say. Get the hell out now. The entire state. Get out of the state, and I'm dead serious on that. You're living in a state that has gone absolutely insane.” (video)

• @DineshDSouza

• Three men and a bag of white powder. Notice how Macron sneakily and deftly swipes it out of the camera’s view. The German chancellor Merz takes care of the spoon. Can’t have people thinking they are plotting strategy while doing cocaine together. (video)

• @SecretaryRollins

• Due to the threat of New World Screwworm I am announcing the suspension of live cattle, horse, & bison imports through U.S. southern border ports of entry effective immediately. The last time this devastating pest invaded America, it took 30 years for our cattle industry to recover. This cannot happen again.

• @toobaffled

• Something strange is happening in Singapore. Just as Bill Gates and the WHO’s Tedros Ghebreyesus wrapped up high-profile visits with the nation’s top leaders, sweeping changes were quietly pushed through the country’s legal system—changes that now make it a crime to refuse mandatory government vaccines.

• @_NewsBarron 

• Anyone else want to know what really happened to Tafari? Tafari Campbell was a chef for the Obama’s in the White House. They hired him to be their personal chef after they left the White House. Tafari was a 6 foot tall professional swimmer and spent a lot of time paddle boarding in the Obama estate pond that’s 3.0 to 4.3 feet deep. Where he was found dead, of apparent drowning. What happened to him? (pic)
• So, what happened to this story? 60 people dead, flight manifest hidden—after a female military pilot crashed straight into a Delta passenger jet. Who was on that plane?!
  

• @wideawake_media

• "This is the greatest crime against humanity in recorded history." Dr. Naomi Wolf: "Pfizer knew by April of 2021 that minors' hearts were being damaged by the injection... and rather than coming forward and telling all of us... they followed that with an all-summer-long propaganda campaign... to get young people and teenagers injected." (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.5 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 55.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.67 -.48% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.3 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.41% +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 -3.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.83%.
• S&P 500 futures +1.22%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.6%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.