Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.12%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +10.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +11.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +1.9 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -.8 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.82 +.24: Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% -3.4 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.82 +1.48: Growth Rate +22.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 30.4 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.16 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +45.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 unch.
- US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% -3.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.04 -13.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 65.8% (+24.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.6%(+11.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +146 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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