Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Global Trade Deal Hopes, US Economic Data, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.8 -3.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .93 -66.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.2 +1.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.43 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.63 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.1 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 163.0 +65.0

• Total Put/Call .81 -1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -13.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$120.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 476.6 -3.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279.0 +4.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.1 -1.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.0 -.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.6 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 105.2 -.74%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.7 +.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.75 basis points +.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -7.75 basis point -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 76.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 +.02% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% +6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.7 +1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(325 of 500 reporting) +14.1% +.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.58 +.01:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.3 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +32.5% -10.7 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 422.34 +.72: Growth Rate +22.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 30.1 +1.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 -.1
• US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% -130.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.6% +2.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.17 +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 55.0% (-8.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 45.9%(-13.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +650 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +108 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long