Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Growth (-2.70%)
Sector Outperformers:
Gold (+3.11%), Computer Hardware (+1.94%) and Education (-.83%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
GOLD, DNDN, RGLD, ICUI, PAS, PBG and BF/B
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) SIRI 2) GIGM 3) BAX 4) JAVA 5) ACOR
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, April 20, 2009
Bull Radar
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said U.S. credit markets have gotten stronger and the world’s largest economy may grow in 2010. “The credit markets are achieving a better tone and getting stronger,” Fisher said at a briefing in Shanghai today. “Volatility has been dampened. It will take some time to correct the weakness we’re experiencing.” “I expect it will get less worse. The numbers will be less negative through 2009” and the U.S. may see positive growth next year, Fisher said.
- Companies with the most debt and lowest returns on assets are turning in the biggest six-week rally in stocks since 1938 into a bloodbath for last year’s best performing trading strategy. Investors in so-called “quantitative momentum” funds – which speculate that the worst stocks in the past 12 months will continue to decline – have become this year’s biggest losers after banks and companies that rely on consumer spending surged. Quant momentum managers may have tumbled 27% this month in the
- The Markit iTraxx
-
Wall Street Journal:
Barron’s:
MarketWatch.com:
NY Times:
CNNMoney.com:
Politico:
OpenSecrets.org:
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS), JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and other US banks that want to repay government funds received under the troubled asset relief program will have to pass a test of whether the move is in the nation’s economic interest, citing a senior Obama administration official. The paybacks would not be allowed if the banking system is not stable, or if it would create “incentives for more deleveraging,” the report said.
ipodnn:
Folha de S. Paulo:
-
Handelsblatt:
- The International Monetary Fund will lower its growth forecast for the world economy in an announcement this week, citing an interview with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. “Until now we were assuming that the world growth rate would be negative by a half to one percentage point. But now it is becoming more negative,” Strauss-Kahn said.
-
Nikkei:
- Panasonic Corp. will boost output of LCD televisions at its Latin American plants by 140% to 450,000 this fiscal year to meet increasing demand.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (CHTT), (SNDK), (ANF), (MEE), (AGU), (GOLD), (NBL), (PFG), (NTDOY) and (KMB).
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (AMZN) to Buy, target $97.
- Reiterated Buy on (AAPL), target $147.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.83%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (BAC)/.04
- (HAS)/.15
- (WFT)/.29
- (MMR)/-.41
- (HAL)/.42
- (LLY)/.99
- (ETN)/-.27
- (SYK)/.71
- (LNCR)/.36
- (IBM)/1.66
- (TXN)/.00
- (BSX)/.12
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Leading Indicators for March are estimated to decline .2% versus a .4% decline in February.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking, (GPC) shareholder meeting, (TOL) shareholders meeting, (CR) shareholders meeting and the (LLY) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a few economic reports of note and many significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Leading Indicators
Tues. – Weekly retails sales reports
Wed. – Weekly EIA energy inventory report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, House Price Index
Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales
Fri. – Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Bank of
Tues. – Lexmark Intl.(LXK),
Wed. – Freeport-McMoRan(FCX), McDonald’s(MCD), Temple-Inland(TIN), WellPoint(WLP), Alteria Group(MO), PF Chang’s(PFCB), Boeing Co.(BA), St. Jude(STJ), Ryder System(R), Wells Fargo(WFC), AT&T(T), Continental Air(CAL), F5 Networks(FFIV), Qualcomm(QCOM), Robert Half(RHI), Chipotle Grill(CMG), VMware(VMW), Xilinx(XLNX), Yum! Brands(YUM), Apple(AAPL), eBay(EBAY), Morgan Stanley(MS), Sybase(SY), Lam Research(LRCX), Kimerly-Clark(KMB), Novellus(NVLS), Northrop Grumman(NOC), Genzyme(GENZ)
Thur. – EMC Corp.(EMC), Goodrich(GR), AmerisourceBergen(ABC), ITT Educational(ESI), SunTrust(STI), Marriott(MAR), L-3 Communications(LLL), CME Group(CME), PepsiCo(PEP), Zimmer(ZMH), Philip Morris(PM), Raytheon(RTN), United Parcel Service(UPS), ConocoPhillips(COP), Burlington Northern(BNI), NetFlix(NFLX), Cheesecake Factory(CAKE), Microsoft(MSFT), Western Digital(WDC), American Express(AXP), Juniper Networks(JNPR), Chubb(CB), DeVry(DV), Diamond Offshore(DO), Hershey(HSY), Amazon.com(AMZN), Amgen(AMGN), Kla-Tencor(KLAC), Black & Decker(BDK), International Game Technology(IGT), Royal Caribbean(RCL), Deckers Outdoor(DECK), Nucor(NUE)
Fri. – 3M(MMM), Honeywell(HON), ITT Industries(ITT), Schlumberger(SLB),
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking, (GPC) shareholder meeting, (TOL) shareholders meeting, (CR) shareholders meeting, (LLY) shareholders meeting
Tue. – The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, (C) shareholders meeting, (GR) shareholders meeting, (CF) annual meeting, (AGU) annual meeting, (WFR) shareholders meeting, (NTRS) shareholders meeting, (V) shareholder meeting
Wed. – (JCP) analyst meeting, (KO) shareholders meeting, (GE) shareholders meeting, (ISRG) shareholders meeting, (CI) shareholders meeting
Thur. – Susquehanna Consumer Forum, (JNJ) shareholders meeting, (HUM) stockholders’ meeting
Fri. – Geithner meeting with G7 Finance Ministers, (ABT) shareholders meeting, (T) shareholders meeting, (PGR) annual meeting, (XL) shareholders meeting, (K) shareholders meeting
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less credit market angst, better-than-feared earnings reports, declining economic fear, lower energy prices and diminishing financial sector pessimism offset more shorting and profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 869.60 +1.52%
DJIA 8,131.33 +.59%
NASDAQ 1,673.07 +1.24%
Russell 2000 479.37 +2.39%
Wilshire 5000 8,813.35 +1.65%
Russell 1000 Growth 382.66 +1.29%
Russell 1000 Value 445.13 +2.0%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 532.78 +2.83%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 481.48 +6.74%
Morgan Stanley Technology 407.59 +1.59%
Transports 3,094.87 +3.54%
Utilities 332.87 -1.16%
MSCI Emerging Markets 27.98 +1.63%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 23,354 +24.79%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -111 +5.13%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.0 -61.76%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 180,982 -3.18%
Total Put/Call .71 -13.41%
OEX Put/Call 1.09 +62.69%
ISE Sentiment 127.0 -3.76%
NYSE Arms 1.42 +189.80%
Volatility(VIX) 33.94 -7.09%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 14.35 -5.28%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,025.31 +3.51%
AAII % Bulls 44.14 +23.61%
AAII % Bears 35.86 -19.03%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.28 -3.72%
Reformulated Gasoline 149.44 +.40%
Natural Gas 3.74 +3.52%
Heating Oil 142.60 -.12%
Gold 869.0 -1.36%
Base Metals 136.62 +5.97%
Copper 219.20 +4.88%
Agriculture 299.90 +.63%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 2.95% +3 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 1.28% -7 basis points
TED Spread 97.0 + 1 basis point
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 177.83 -2.56%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 496.42 -7.11%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +24.80 +40.11%
Fed Fund Futures imply 74.0% chance of no change, 26.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 52.18 +2.52%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 651,000 -1.3%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.82% -5 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 1,113,200 -10.99%
Weekly Retail Sales +.90%
Nationwide Gas $2.05/gallon unch.
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 12.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 107.20 -.19%
US Dollar Index 85.98 +.23%
Baltic Dry Index 1,604.0 +8.53%
CRB Index 225.85 -.89%
Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +3.42%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +1.29%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +11.97%
Hospitals +10.59%
Banks +10.0%
Education +9.23%
I-Banks +7.97%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.84%
Utilities -1.16%
Biotech -1.37%
Gold -6.43%
Coal -6.90%
