Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+3.53%)
Sector Outperformers:
Homebuilders (+8.38%), Steel (+7.45%) and Banks (+5.79%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
KB, STI, CRZO, WFC, CEO, PTR, CHL, CHU, BGFV, LMDIA, JRCC, EBIX, NAFC, GMCR, SOHU, TBSI, ATLS, JRJC, HSIC, DISCA, VLCCF, HSII, NILE, RAIL, AMSC, GTLS, LOGI, EL, EMG, ASF, KND, GMR, FRO and VMC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) AET 2) BDK 3) CSIQ 4) NIHD 5) ELN
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, May 04, 2009
Bull Radar
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
- Why Tech Stocks Are on a Tear.
NY Times:
- Fear of Attacks Stokes Armored Car Sales in Brazil.
Forbes.com:
CNNMoney.com:
Politico:
Zero Hedge:
Seeking Alpha:
- Global Crisis? Not for Tech Stocks.
Reuters:
Financial Times:
Die Welt:
- The German economy will continue to contract next year, citing an internal paper by the commission of the European Union, which will be published May 4th. The German economy will shrink 5.6% this year and as much as .3% next year.
Yomiuri:
- Panasonic Corp. raised its monthly output capacity for plasma panels at two plants to 940,000 units as television sales recover in
EE Times:
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SPG), (VNO), (PLD), (KIM), (MORN), (WYNN), (
Night Trading
Asian indices are +1.50% to +3.75% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.58%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.61%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (B)/.20
- (OSG)/1.05
- (ASF)/.29
- (S)/-.05
- (DISCA)/.25
- (MCK)/1.14
- (PPS)/.25
- (VMC)/-.08
- (N)/.00
- (MYGN)/.25
- (CGNX)/-.05
- (CHK)/.49
- (MGM)/-.04
- (FST)/.16
- (CKEC)/-.09
- (CNA)/.30
- (SYY)/.39
- (L)/.80
- (TSN)/-.06
- (EL)/.-.05
- (TDW)/1.96
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for March are estimated unch. versus a 2.1% increase in February.
- Construction Spending for March is estimated to fall 1.7% versus a .9% decline in February.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (ZMH) shareholders meeting, (RIMM) Capital Markets Day, (SEE) analyst meeting, (AFL) shareholders meeting, (SHLD) shareholders meeting and the (MOT) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon, finishing higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a number of economic reports of note and many significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending
Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Wed. – Weekly EIA energy inventory report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change
Thur. – 1Q Non-farm Productivity, 1Q Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, ICSC Chain Store Sales, Consumer Credit
Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Administaff(ASF), Sprint Nextel(S), Mckesson(MCK), Post Properties(PPS), Vulcan Materials(VMC), Chesapeake Energy(CHK), MGM Mirage(MGM), Loews(L), Tyson Foods(TSN), Estee Lauder(EL), Tidewater(TDW)
Tues. – Automatic Data Processing(ADP), Diebold(DBD), St Joe(JOE), Weyerhaeuser(WY), Emerson Electric(EMR), Kraft Foods(KFT), Duke Energy(DUK), Walt Disney(DIS), Centex(CTX), Electronic Atrs(ERTS), Pulte Homes(PHM), CVS Caremark(CVS), Archer-Daniels-Midland(ADM), Las Vegas Sands(LVS), Avon Products(AVP), IntercontinentalExchange(ICE), Wynn Resorts(WYNN)
Wed. – News Corp.(NWS/A), Anadarko Petroleum(APC), Cisco Systems(CSCO), Symantec(SYMC)
Thur. – DR Horton(DHI), Allstate(ALL), Microchip Tech(MCHP), Nvidia(NVDA)
Fri. – Priceline.com(PCLN),
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (ZMH) shareholders meeting, (RIMM) Capital Markets Day, (SEE) analyst meeting, (AFL) shareholders meeting, (SHLD) shareholders meeting, (MOT) shareholders meeting
Tue. – The Fed’s Rosengren speaking, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on economy, Fed’s Hilton speaking, Fed’s Stern speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, (D) shareholders meeting, (BMY) shareholders meeting
Wed. – The Fed’s Stern speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, (FWLT) shareholders meeting, (PEP) shareholders meeting, (HOT) shareholders meeting, (GILD) stockholders meeting
Thur. – The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking, (POT) shareholders meeting, (VZ) shareholders meeting, (BTU) shareholders meeting
Fri. – The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (AA) shareholders meeting, (GS) shareholders meeting
Friday, May 01, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 877.52 +1.30%
DJIA 8,212.41 +1.69%
NASDAQ 1,719.20 +1.47%
Russell 2000 486.98 +1.72%
Wilshire 5000 8,916.07 +1.51%
Russell 1000 Growth 389.83 +1.55%
Russell 1000 Value 445.82 +1.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 537.53 +2.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 532.55 +3.34%
Morgan Stanley Technology 422.73 +.27%
Transports 3,152.39 +.47%
Utilities 343.03 +4.92%
MSCI Emerging Markets 28.99 +4.19%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 27,504 +12.1%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -54 +60.29%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 35.0 +52.17%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 174,308 -3.37%
Total Put/Call .77 -4.94%
OEX Put/Call .93 -40.38%
ISE Sentiment 130.0 -2.26%
NYSE Arms 1.26 +20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 35.30 -4.12%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.84 -3.28%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,092.97 -.07%
AAII % Bulls 36.09 +13.42%
AAII % Bears 43.61 +12.86%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.77 +2.64%
Reformulated Gasoline 151.0 +4.37%
Natural Gas 3.54 +5.11%
Heating Oil 137.95 -.47%
Gold 885.70 -3.11%
Base Metals 132.56 +3.13%
Copper 211.60 +3.29%
Agriculture 320.63 +5.49%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.16% +17 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 1.40% -10 basis points
TED Spread 86.0 -12 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 164.65 -7.21%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 489.70 -3.17%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +18.30 -23.11%
Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/24
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 54.34 -.19%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 637,300 -1.7%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.78% -2 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 960,600 -18.05%
Weekly Retail Sales +.60%
Nationwide Gas $2.05/gallon -.01/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 19.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 107.70 +.47%
US Dollar Index 84.55 -.20%
Baltic Dry Index 1,786.0 -5.85%
CRB Index 229.04 +2.77%
Best Performing Style
Small-cap Growth +2.57%
Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Value +.88%
Leading Sectors
Hospitals +13.03%
Gaming +7.54%
Alternative Energy +6.0%
Networking +5.48%
Utilities +4.92%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -4.16%
Gold -4.32%
REITs -5.56%
Banks -7.0%
Airlines -8.98%