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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Analysts are raising US profit estimates for the first time since credit markets froze two years ago, reducing valuations even after the steepest rally since the Great Depression. Wall Street firms raised forecasts on S&P 500 companies 896 times in June and lowered 886, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase(JPM). Wall Street firms estimate the S&P 500 will earn $74.55 a share next year, up from $72.54 in May. Stocks now trade at 13.13 times estimated profit, indicating a 26% increase in the S&P 500 should the index return to its five-decade average of 16.54 times annual income.

- Crude oil dropped from a three-week high on speculation the commodity’s 14 percent gain during the past two weeks may have exceeded prospects for recovery in the global economy. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators slashed bets on rising oil prices to an 11-week low last week, according to U.S. government data. “Things are looking up, but at the same time, does that justify $70 a barrel oil?” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “We’ve got huge stocks of distillates and gasoline stockpiles are rising at a time when they probably shouldn’t be, if seasonal trends are anything to go by. So it’s not a strong picture for the physical market.” A decline in oil today would be the first since July 22, when the U.S. Energy Department said the nation’s gasoline supplies rose for a sixth week while distillate stockpiles reached their highest since January 1985. While equity markets are a “fairly reliable” leading indicator of the economy, oil prices may be at risk from the widening disparity between the sentiment driving them and industry fundamentals, Hassall said. Speculators’ net-long position in New York oil, the difference between contracts to buy and sell the commodity, plunged 86 percent to 2,218 contracts in the week ended July 21, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported.

- Younger people are at greater risk of catching swine flu, with most cases occurring in teenagers, the World Health Organization said. The median age of those infected with the pandemic H1N1 virus is 12 to 17 years, WHO said in a statement yesterday, citing data from Canada, Chile, Japan, U.K. and U.S. Patients requiring hospitalization and those with fatal cases may be slightly older, the Geneva-based United Nations agency said.

- The highest inflation-adjusted yields in 15 years are helping provide the Treasury with record demand at auctions as the U.S. prepares to sell $115 billion of notes this week. Treasuries are the cheapest relative to inflation since 1994 after consumer prices fell 1.4 percent in June from a year earlier. The real yield, or the difference between rates on government securities and inflation, for 10-year notes was 5.06 percent on July 24, compared with an average of 2.74 percent over the past 20 years.

Wall Street Journal:

- A top Citigroup Inc.(C) trader is pressing the financial giant to honor a 2009 pay package that could total $100 million, setting the stage for a potential showdown between Citi and the government's new pay czar.

- Clinton, Geithner Comment on Ties With China.

- Companies are trying harder to please customers amid the recession -- and it appears to be working. The American Customer Satisfaction Index, a widely followed survey conducted by the University of Michigan, is at a record high. Other surveys also report gains in customer satisfaction. The results are unexpected, because customer satisfaction typically declines in a recession as companies cut costs, says Bruce Temkin, a vice president for Forrester Research Inc. In this downturn, though, he and other analysts say companies are protecting spending that affects customers.

- A Long Island, N.Y., hedge-fund firm that has drawn ire from investors and attention from federal regulators promoted its funds' performance last year days before it formally barred clients from withdrawing money, documents show. NIR Group, run by Corey Ribotsky, sought in September and October to raise money, noting its funds' robust profits in 2008 and prior years, according to emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. In mid-October the firm, based in Long Island's village of Roslyn, announced to clients that it would freeze withdrawals.

- As its hedge-fund and private-equity industries worry about new rules, the U.S. is quietly lobbying Europe to change the terms of proposed financial regulation that could place strict new rules on any U.S. hedge- or private-equity fund doing business in the region, according to a senior Treasury official. The move wades the U.S. into a fierce battle between the U.K. and other parts of Europe over how tough regulation should be. Some nations, led by Germany and France, are calling for wholesale regulation of financial services in the wake of last fall's crisis, but the U.K. says that overly stringent rules would damage its large financial sector and close off U.S. and other funds to European investors.

- Second-quarter earnings could provide the thrust for more companies to announce plans to go public. Better-than-expected results have driven much of the stock market's rise this month. Private companies hope the market will rise further, resulting in higher prices for initial public offerings later in the year. Given that many also are feeling more confident about their own business outlook, bankers expect some pickup in IPO filings as second-quarter results are finalized.

- So-called Blue Dog Democrats continued to resist key aspects of their party's health-care overhaul Sunday, despite pressure from party leaders who fear they will endanger President Barack Obama's most ambitious legislative effort. A leader of the fiscally conservative group of Representatives said he expects any vote on the House's health proposal would have to wait, likely until after Labor Day. "I think the American people want to take a closer look at this legislation. They want to feel more comfortable with it," Rep. Jim Cooper, a Blue Dog from Tennessee, said on CBS's "Face the Nation." The Blue Dogs' clout arises from simple math -- they account for 52 seats in the House, enough to topple any law in cooperation with Republicans -- and some irony. The power of the Blue Dogs was on full display Friday, when they humiliated California Rep. Henry Waxman, one of the most liberal Democrats on Capitol Hill. Late last year, Rep. Waxman had shown his power by gaining control of the Energy and Commerce Committee, wresting the chairman's seat from Congress's most senior Democrat. On Friday morning, Rep. Waxman went before cameras and fired a blast at seven Blue Dogs on his committee who have blocked the health legislation from proceeding to the House floor for vote. The Blue Dog Coalition came together after the Democrats' crushing loss of Congress in 1994. Representatives, mainly Southerners, believed the party's losses stemmed from a drift to the left. Beyond health care, the Blue Dogs have helped delay a climate-change bill, reducing its burden on businesses. They also helped block legislation to make it easier for unions to organize. That frustrates liberals, who say the Democratic Party's victory last November, including a 256-178 majority in the House, gives it a once-in-a-generation chance to enact a liberal agenda. "Since they can vote with the Republicans in order to get their way around here, that doesn't sit well with progressives -- who don't want to vote with Republicans ever," said Rep. Lynn Woolsey, a California Democrat and co-chair of the House Progressive Caucus. As long ago as May, the Blue Dogs complained of being shut out of the health-care debate, when they wrote a sharp letter to Democratic leaders saying they were "increasingly troubled" by their exclusion. The Blue Dogs' resistance has angered other Democrats. At a heated closed-door meeting of House Democrats last week, Rep. Hank Johnson, a Georgia Democrat and member of the Congressional Black Caucus, complained about the Blue Dogs holding up the health bill in Energy and Commerce Committee, noting pointedly that all are white men. Emotions have run high among Blue Dogs as well. When the health-care talks nearly broke down Friday, Rep. Ross said Rep. Waxman had reneged on agreements he'd reached with the Blue Dogs. Rep. Charlie Melancon of Louisiana said he'd been "lied to." "We've always been in the middle," said Rep. John Tanner, a Tennessee Blue Dog. "If you're going to get some of these really tough issues done, it has to be done somewhere in the middle." When Mr. Obama took office in January, with Democrats sweeping to dominant majorities, many Democrats were giddy at the prospect of an agenda that would mark a third great wave of progressive Democratic legislation, after the New Deal and the Great Society. But it didn't take long for the Blue Dogs to play their cards.

- The Obama administration expressed hope that it has put behind it a controversy surrounding President Barack Obama's remarks on the arrest of African-American scholar Henry Louis Gates Jr., as the White House girded for a renewed push this week on health-care legislation. David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama, said Sunday that the president's expression of regret for his initial statement that the police "acted stupidly" was having "the desired effect."

- The U.S. pay czar, now preparing to vet the compensation at businesses receiving major federal aid, will push to renegotiate contracts that he views as excessive or seek other ways to reduce overall outlays, said people familiar with the matter. The role of the government in setting pay is reaching a pivotal moment.

- Advertisers are getting cheaper rates than a year ago on television commercials for the coming TV season, putting more pressure on networks already reeling from the economic downturn. The rate cuts have come in the annual negotiations between networks and advertisers to buy TV ads that will run through the following summer. Both sides had been locked in a tug-of-war over prices since May. But now each of the four big U.S. networks -- CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox -- has cut rates by single-digit percentages in at least some deals, according to media buyers, executives and network executives.

- Lending continues to slow as bankers and borrowers refrain from taking risks, in a bearish sign for the economy. The total amount of loans held by 15 large U.S. banks shrank by 2.8% in the second quarter, and more than half of the loan volume in April and May came from refinancing mortgages and renewing credit to businesses, not new loans, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal shows.

MarketWatch.com:

- Barron's Jay Palmer takes a look at a new wireless headset from Plantronics(PLT), which the company hopes will take the place of the traditional phone headset used in many offices. (video)

NY Times:

- President Obama’s top antitrust official and some senior Democratic lawmakers are preparing to rein in a host of major industries, including airline and railroad giants, moving so aggressively that they are finding some resistance from officials within the administration. Democrats have spent years trying to gain the support of businesses, and the policy changes under way may have long-term political implications for their party. Some companies would like to see more aggressive antitrust enforcement against their rivals, while others could be hurt by it. In some cases, though, the new approach is being opposed by administration officials. Some fear that the crackdown is coming at a bad time, as corporate America reels from the recession. Other officials embrace the Bush administration’s view that larger companies and industry alliances can provide consumer benefits by making their businesses more efficient.

- Here is the latest pitch from Wall Street: those troubled assets at the banks could turn out to be gold for you. That is the line from BlackRock(BLK), the giant money manager. BlackRock is putting together an investment fund that it says will give ordinary Americans a chance to profit from the financial bailouts that they are paying for. The company quietly filed plans on Friday to raise money for the vehicle. For investors, the potential risks are considerable.

- The fashion magazines Vogue, InStyle and Lucky may rule the newsstand racks. But online, they are also-rans, overlooked by the fashion-conscious in favor of Polyvore, an upstart Web site far from Fifth Avenue. Polyvore is a user-generated fashion magazine filled with user-generated ads. The people who go to it play fashion editor and create collages featuring pictures of clothes, accessories and models from across the Web. Readers view the collages, which the site calls “sets,” and if they click on a dress or necklace, they are taken to the Web site that sells it.

Washington Post:
- The leaders of the 9/11 Commission on Friday met with U.S. intelligence and homeland security chiefs and urged the Obama administration not to lose focus on counterterrorism and domestic security threats as the nation's political attention moves elsewhere. Lee H. Hamilton, who helped lead the panel that investigated the 2001 terrorist attacks, said there has been "insufficient urgency" in fulfilling the group's recommendations. "More progress could be made more quickly," the former Democratic congressman from Indiana said.

CNNMoney.com:

- Top 100 Best Places to Live.

Business Week:
- California officials are warily awaiting the next round of state revenue figures, concerned that their latest budget-balancing efforts may not be enough to end a seemingly endless stream of deficits.

- BP: Iraq Oil Deal is Start of Something Big. Iraq is counting on BP's modernization of the Rumaila oil field to nearly double its production and restore its power in OPEC.

- Nissan Motor Co. showed off its super-quiet, zero-emission electric car Monday -- a key green offering for Japan's No. 3 automaker, which has fallen behind in hybrid technology. "Nissan will be a leader in zero-emission vehicles," Chief Operating Officer Toshiyuki Shiga said ahead of a test-drive event at the automaker's facility in this Tokyo suburb. "EV is the answer."

USA Today:

- Two months after Craigslist promised to rid itself of advertisements placed by prostitutes, law enforcement officials say the online classified ad site is still in the business of selling sex.

- The beginning of an economic recovery appears to be just a few months away but unemployment will continue to rise past 10% into next year, say economists surveyed by USA TODAY. The results lend support to growing forecasts for a sluggish and jobless start to the recovery. The jobless rate will peak at 10.2%, according to the median estimate of the 49 economists surveyed July 16-22. That's up nearly a half-percentage point from the previous survey in April. The nation's unemployment rate hit 9.5% in June, a 26-year high.

Politico:

- For the second time this month, congressional budget analysts have dealt a blow to the Democrat's health reform efforts, this time by saying a plan touted by the White House as crucial to paying for the bill would actually save almost no money over 10 years. A key House chairman and moderate House Democrats on Tuesday agreed to a White House-backed proposal that would give an outside panel the power to make cuts to government-financed health care programs. White House budget director Peter Orszag declared the plan "probably the most important piece that can be added" to the House's health care reform legislation. But on Saturday, the Congressional Budget Office said the proposal to give an independent panel the power to keep Medicare spending in check would only save about $2 billion over 10 years- a drop in the bucket compared to the bill's $1 trillion price tag.

- Asked by NBC's David Gregory whether the current Iranian government was legitimate, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "that is really for the people to decide."

Rasmussen Reports:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 29% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11. That’s the first time his ratings have reached double digits in negative territory (see trends). These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the President’s prime time televised press conference. The number who Strongly Approve of the President has remained unchanged since the press conference but the number who Strongly Disapprove has gone up by five percentage points (from 35% on Wednesday morning to 40% today).

- Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters nationwide say President Obama did a good or excellent job answering a press conference question about an incident involving a white Cambridge, Massachusetts policeman and a black Harvard professor. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% rate the president’s response as poor.

FinancialNews:

- The best first-half performance by hedge funds for a decade may have bolstered the confidence of managers, but their refusal to relax the various forms of restrictions imposed on redemptions last year is angering investors.

Azcentral.com:

- Food prices in the U.S. will rise less than previously expected this year and the pace of increases this year and next will be the slowest since 2006 after commodity and energy costs plunge, the government said. Consumers will pay 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent more for food this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report, down from last months forecast of 3 percent to 4 percent, which is also the estimate for 2010. Eggs may fall as much as 10 percent this year after rising 14 percent last year, the USDA said. Meat may rise only 1 percent to 2 percent, and cereals and baked goods may increase 3 percent to 4 percent, all reductions from last months forecast. If commodity food and energy costs remain below 2008 levels, pressure on retail food prices will subside, and this could result in low-to-moderate food-price inflation in 2009, Ephraim Leibtag, a USDA economist, said in a note accompanying the report.

International Monetary Fund:

- The IMF’s Executive Board on July 20 backed an allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) —an IMF reserve asset—equivalent to $250 billion to provide liquidity to the global economic system by supplementing the Fund’s 186 member countries’ foreign exchange reserves. The equivalent of nearly $100 billion of the new allocation will go to emerging markets and developing countries, of which low-income countries will receive over $18 billion. The proposal will now be submitted to the IMF’s Board of Governors for final approval.

Reuters:

- Short interest rose significantly on the Nasdaq in mid-July but rose only slightly on the New York Stock Exchange, while remaining well below levels seen at the height of the financial crisis, data from the exchanges showed on Friday. Many of the short interest positions on Nasdaq were centered on the health-care sector, said Eric Newman, portfolio manager at TFS Capital in West Chester Pennsylvania, who cited uncertainty over government efforts to reform the sector as a possible reason for an increase in bearish sentiment. "A lot of this (short interest) is because of the health care sector," said Newman. "That is interesting given current events. Maybe people are some what bearish on the health-care sector given the talk of new health-care policy in Washington." Short interest on the Nasdaq rose 4.1 percent, while on the NYSE it was up 0.4 percent from June 30 to July 15. There were 7.14 billion short positions on the Nasdaq at the end of the period and 15.64 billion on the NYSE.

- Many real estate investment trusts (REITs) spent the first quarter avoiding a financial funeral, but when they report second-quarter earnings in the next weeks, some may be feeling a new sense of longevity. What a difference $14 billion makes.

While the first-quarter earnings season was wracked by fears about who would follow mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. into bankruptcy, second-quarter

reports will likely be dominated by talk about real estate fundamentals -- rent rates and occupancy levels -- as well as some hints about moving on and growing.

"I think that initial widespread fears that you're going to have (more of) these types of GGP-type blow-ups have left the building," Green Street senior analyst Andy McCulloch said.

- The U.S. jobless rate is likely to stay high even once the nation exits recession some time in the next few months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Sunday. Taping a "Bernanke on the Record" special that will air on PBS this week, the top U.S. monetary policy-maker defended the aggressive, even unorthodox actions taken by the Fed during the long recession and deep financial crisis.

- The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States fell again over the last two weeks, but prices seem to be bottoming out, an industry analyst said. The national average for self-serve regular unleaded gas was nearly $2.486 a gallon on July 24, down about 7.14 cents per gallon since July 10, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey of about 7,000 gas stations.

Financial Times:

- President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad sacked his culture and intelligence ministers on Sunday as tensions among fundamentalists rose over the composition of his next cabinet. The development underlines the extent of the political tension in Tehran following last month’s disputed presidential elections. It is rare for senior officials to be dismissed; they are usually said to have “resigned” for the sake of their public standing. Unconfirmed reports suggested tensions increased in last Wednesday’s cabinet meeting after four ministers, including the two to be expelled, clashed with the hardline president over his appointment of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei as first vice-president and walked out of the meeting.

- The US government is poised to take a 34 per cent stake in Citigroup, increasing both its exposure to and influence over, the troubled financial group following Sunday’s completion of a long-awaited $58bn share offering. The move is a milestone in a financial crisis that has forced the US authorities to come to the rescue of some of the largest institutions in the country. Citi has been a repeated recipient of government aid and is the only large surviving bank to have had to cede a shareholding to the government. Citi announced last night that virtually all of the non-government holders of preferred shares had agreed to convert them into common stock, a move that will pave the way for the government to complete the exchange of its $25bn of preferred shares in the next few days.The outcome was expected as Citi had made it financially unpalatable for preferred shareholders to refuse to convert their stakes into common shares. The government has indicated that, in spite of becoming Citi’s single largest shareholder, it would take a hands-off approach and not take up any board seats. Nevertheless, Citi has been under close regulatory scrutiny and is operating under tighter controls than most other banks. The US government, which has injected $45bn into Citi since the beginning of the crisis, still has warrants that give it the right to buy a further $20bn of shares in the bank. The conversion of $58bn of preferred shares held by sovereign wealth funds, institutional investors and the government, would force Citi to issue billions of new common shares. That, in turn, will dilute the value of the shares held by existing shareholders and depress the value of its earnings per share – the metric used by analysts to measure a company’s profitability.

- The privatization of a state steel group has been scrapped after an executive was beaten to death by workers angry at the threat to their jobs from a takeover of their company, according to a Hong Kong rights group. The violent riot in north-east China late last week involved up to 30,000 workers, a reminder of the ongoing sensitivity about lay-offs from state companies in industries targeted for consolidation. Propelled by the government’s stimulus package, China produced steel at an annualized rate of 545m tons in June, a record level of output.

- Calls by a US senator to ban “flash” orders – trades made at lightning speeds on electronic systems – have met resistance from a leading market provider. Direct Edge, the electronic share trading network, hit back on Sunday at comments from Charles Schumer, a senior Democrat on the Senate banking panel, who has called for a clampdown on how equity prices are displayed to investors on electronic systems. Critics, notably Mr Schumer, senator for New York, contend that flash orders are not being shown to all investors at the same time, creating a two-tier market. This, they say, favours traders with faster and more powerful trading systems. Mr Schumer sent a letter late last week to the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting that it curb the use of flash orders by Nasdaq OMX and the trading platforms Direct Edge and BATS. If the regulator fails to act, Mr Schumer plans to introduce legislation in the Senate seeking to prohibit the use of flash orders. “We are waiting to see how the regulatory landscape develops,” said Joe Mecane, NYSE Euronext’s chief administrative officer for US equities markets. “We have been vocal about our opposition to flashing orders.”Flash orders have come under increasing scrutiny as US securities regulators look for ways to regulate “dark pools”. These anonymous electronic trading venues, which do not display public quotes for stocks, have flourished in recent years. Last month, Mary Shapiro, the chairman of the SEC raised concerns about the growth of dark pools and the letter from Senator Schumer is likely to put renewed pressure on the SEC which has been criticised for being slow to react to problems in the past and for lacking the skills to keep up with new market technologies.

- Lenders in Europe bracing themselves for a rising wave of consumer debt defaults as the credit card crisis that has caused billions of dollars in losses among US banks spreads across the Atlantic. The International Monetary Fund estimates that of US consumer debt totaling $1,914bn, about 14 per cent will turn sour. It expects that 7 per cent of the $2,467bn of consumer debt in Europe will be lost, with much of that falling in the UK, the continent’s biggest nation of credit card borrowers. National Debtline of the UK said that the number of calls it had received from UK consumers worried about loans, credit cards and mortgage arrears had reached 41,000 in May – double the 20,000 calls it had received in May 2008. It added that the number of calls showed no sign of abating.

- Calpers, the US’s biggest pension fund, which this week unveiled the steepest drop in its assets in its 80-year history, has agreed to buy back a portfolio of 86 US shopping centers for $1.73bn, about $1bn less than it sold it for four years ago. Calpers, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, and its joint venture partner First Washington Realty, will buy a majority stake in the shopping centers from Macquarie CountryWide Trust, the indebted Australian group that bought the portfolio for just over $2.7bn in 2005.

- Apple(AAPL) is working with the four largest record labels to stimulate digital sales of albums by bundling a new interactive booklet, sleeve notes and other interactive features with music downloads, in a move it hopes will change buying trends on its online iTunes store. The talks come as Apple is separately racing to offer a portable, full-featured, tablet-sized computer in time for the Christmas shopping season, in what the entertainment industry hopes will be a new revolution. The device could be launched alongside the new content deals, including those aimed at stimulating sales of CD-length music, according to people briefed on the project. Apple is working with EMI, Sony Music, Warner Music and Universal Music Group, on a project the company has codenamed “Cocktail”, according to four people familiar with the situation. The labels and Apple are working towards a September launch date for the project, which aims to boost interest in albums by bundling liner notes and video clips with the music. Apple wants to make bigger purchases more compelling by creating a new type of interactive album material, including photos, lyric sheets and liner notes that allow users to click through to items that they find most interesting. Consumers would be able to play songs directly from the interactive book without clicking back into Apple’s iTunes software, executives said. The new touch-sensitive device Apple is working on will have a screen that may be up to 10 inches diagonally. It will connect to the internet like the iPod Touch – probably without phone capability but with access to Apple’s online stores.

The Independent:

- The number of business leaders detecting the green shoots of an economic recovery has fallen for the first time since April, raising fears that the country is heading for a "double-dip" recession, research carried out for The Independent has found. The renewed gloom in industry – revealed in a survey of senior business people – comes after months of cautious optimism that Britain could soon be past the worst of the downturn.

RIANOVOSTI:

- Russia and the United States will hold a regular round of talks on arms cuts in Geneva in late August - early September, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Saturday.

MEED:

- Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government will gain a $5 billion windfall from oil contracts, citing a document from the administration. The semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq will use the money to pay for infrastructure projects such as the construction of power plants. The KRG has received about $740 million in payments linked to contracts and will gain another $4.2 billion through royalties or stakes in oil producers.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (NUE), (KLAC), (OSIP), (PLT), (JCI), (LUV), (MA) and (C).

- Made negative comments on (HGG).

Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (CELG), target $63.

- Reiterated Buy on (GOOG), target $580. At the margin, we believe the assertion that YouTube can be “very profitable in the not too long distance future” is credible.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +1.0% to +1.75% on avg.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index +1.45%.
S&P 500 futures +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (GLW)/.32

- (ENR)/1.02

- (RSH)/.29

- (ANR)/.39

- (FCL)/.71

- (HON)/.60
- (VZ)/.63

- (AMGN)/1.16

- (CF)/2.73

- (MAS)/-.02

- (MTH)/-.72

- (HMA)/.10

- (JEC)/.76

- (PCL)/.02

- (MTW)/.13

- (BWLD)/.34

- (SLG)/1.20

Upcoming Splits

- None of note

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- New Home Sales for June are estimated to rise to 352K versus 342K in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- Geithner/Clinton meeting with Chinese officials, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report and the (LM) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.

There are several economic reports of note and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, ABC Consumer Confidence

Wed. – Weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Durable Goods Orders, Fed’s Beige Book

Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. – Advance 2Q GDP, Advance 2Q Personal Consumption, Advance 2Q GDP Price Index, Advance 2Q Core PCE, Advance 2Q Employment Cost Index, Chicago Purchasing Manager, NAPM-Milwaukee

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Corning Inc(GLW), Energizer Holdings(ENR), Alpha Natural Resources(ANR), Foundation Coal(FCL), Honeywell(HON), Verizon(VZ), Amgen(AMGN), CF Industries(CF), Jacobs Engineering(JEC), SL Green(SLG)

Tues. – Smith Intl(SII), Corn Products(CPO), McGraw-Hill(MHP), Rockwell Automation(ROK), Norfolk Southern(NSC), Panera(PNRA), McKesson(MCK), Massey Energy(MEE), Agco(AGCO), Valero Energy(VLO), United States Steel(X), Office Depot(ODP), Coach(COH), Viacom(VIA/B)

Wed. – Tidewater(TDW), Medco(MHS), Time Warner(TWX), IAC/InterActiveCorp(IACI), WellPoint Inc.(WLP), Aetna(AET), American Tower(AMT), Sprint Nextel(S), Qwest(Q), ConocoPhillips(COP), Teradyne(TER), Ryland Group(RYL), Digital River(DRIV), General Maritime(GMR), Express Scripts(ESRX), CBRichard Ellis(CBG), Owens-Illinois(OI), Cerner(CERN), Aflac(AFL), Lam Research(LRCX), Jones Apparel(JNY), Hess Corp.(HES), Affiliated Managers(AMG), Akamai(AKAM), Royal Caribbean(RCL), SPX Corp.(SPW), General Dynamics(GD), Symantec(SYMC), Sealed Air(SEE), Centex(CTX)

Thur. – NYSE(NYX), AmerisourceBergen(ABC), Mack-Cali(CLI), Intl Paper(IP), Consol Energy(CNX), Automatic Data(ADP), Expedia(EXPE), Strayer Education(STRA), Cigna(CI), Dow Chemical(DOW), Motorola(MOT), Eastman Kodak(EK), Rockwell Collins(ROK), Kellogg(K), WebMD(WBMD), KBR Inc.(KBR), Walt Disney(DIS), NetSuite(N), First Solar(FSLR), AllianceBerstein(AB), Beckman Coulter(BEC), Ingram Micro(IM), MetLife(MET), Exxon Mobil(XOM), McAfee(MFE), Revlon(REV), Mastercard(MA), Becton Dickinson(BDX), Avon Products(AVP), Wynn Resorts(WYNN), Pitney Bowes(PBI), Apache Corp.(APA), Noble Energy(NBL), Cummins(CMI), Colgate-Palmolive(CL), OfficeMax(OMX), Las Vegas Sands(LVS)

Fri. – Allergan(AGN), Autonation(AN), Chevron(CVX), Constellation Energy(CEG), Dominion(D), ITT Industries(ITT), Weyerhaeuser(WYE)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – Geithner/Clinton meeting with Chinese officials, (LM) shareholders meeting

Tue. – Geithner/Clinton meeting with Chinese officials, the Fed’s Yellen speaking, Keefe Bruyette Woods Community Bank Conference, (GE) Investor Webcast, (RRI) analyst day

Wed. – The Fed’s Dudley speaking, Fed’s Beige Book, (RF) investor day, Keefe Bruyette Woods Community Bank Conference

Thur. – (MSFT) analyst meeting

Fri. – (PLCE) shareholders meeting, (ANR) stockholders meeting

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less financial sector pessimism, lower long-term rates, declining economic fear, diminishing healthcare reform worries, investment manager performance anxiety and mostly positive earnings reports offset more shorting and profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 979.26 +4.13%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 979.26 +4.13%
DJIA 9,093.24 +4.0%
NASDAQ 1,965.96 +4.21%
Russell 2000 548.46 +5.63%
Wilshire 5000 9,974.18 +4.43%
Russell 1000 Growth 437.46 +3.62%
Russell 1000 Value 496.08 +5.06%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.85 +3.33%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 647.64 +10.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 494.22 +4.45%
Transports 3,536.48 +6.72%
Utilities 378.86 +5.34%
MSCI Emerging Markets 35.11 +5.25%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 43,451 +13.30%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +123 +547.37%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.0 -43.38%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +2,218 -86.27%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,149,799 -4.48%
Total Put/Call .92 +24.32%
OEX Put/Call 1.08 +63.64%
ISE Sentiment 109.0 -4.39%
NYSE Arms .98 -25.76%
Volatility(VIX) 23.09 -5.14%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.21 -2.29%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,558.84 +1.58%
AAII % Bulls 37.60 +31.10%
AAII % Bears 42.40 -9.90%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 251.91 +2.80%

Crude Oil 68.05 +5.67%
Reformulated Gasoline 191.59 +8.55%
Natural Gas 3.69 +.14%
Heating Oil 178.13 +8.86%
Gold 955.90 +1.68%
Base Metals 164.54 +7.14%
Copper 252.20 +4.24%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 195.00 USD/Ton +3.54%

China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,061 +1.65%

Agriculture 293.42 -1.16%

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 118.35 +.25%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index +32.60 -7.91%

Fed Fund Futures imply 79.5% chance of no change, 20.5% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/12

US Dollar Index 78.75 -.75%

10-year US Treasury Yield 3.66% +2 basis points

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -5.55%

10-year TIPS Spread 1.88% +2 basis points
TED Spread 32.0 -2 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 121.35 -6.67%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 343.34 -12.32%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 545.0 -5.22%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 566,000 -3.2%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.70 unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.20% +6 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 528,900 +2.82%

ABC Consumer Confidence -50 +1.96%
Weekly Retail Sales -5.70%
Nationwide Gas $2.47/gallon -.01/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 6.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 3,345 -5.56%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 25.0 +11.11%

Rail Freight Carloads 189,541 +7.15%

Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 66.75 +3.84%

Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +6.25%

Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +3.62%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +11.15%
Alternative Energy +9.58%

Gaming +9.40%
Biotech +8.28%
REITs +8.05%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware +.72%
Banks +.65%
Software +.47%
Restaurants +.47%
Defense -.63%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish at Session Highs, Boosted by Airline, HMO, Hospital, Medical Equipment, Biotech, Oil Service and Alt Energy Shares

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