BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Retail longs, Financial longs, Medical longs and Defense longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling -3.39% and is high at 23.38. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 116.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .86. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very low most of the day, hitting .27 at its intraday trough, and is currently .32. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.73% today to 67.42 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -4.13% to 98.70 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 441 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is down -2.35% to 33.81 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +7 basis points to 2.23%, which is down 42 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.Cyclical shares are outperforming today, with the MS Cyclical Index jumping +3.3%. REIT, Gold, Coal, Gaming, Paper, Construction, Bank, Disk Drive, Steel and Oil Service shares are especially strong, surging 3%+ today.(XLF)/(IYR) have been very strong throughout the day.Today’s action has that melt-up feel to it that usually occurs when too many large funds are leaning the wrong way and start to panic.Moreover, the Rydex funds switching from bullish to bearish leaning mutual funds, has quickly moved to its lowest level in 2 years. That means there are more market timers leaning bearish than there were in October 2008 and March of this year, right near meaningful market lows. I suspect the S&P 500 will consolidate gains around the 1,100 level before surging again into the holidays.Nikkei futures indicate an +200 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +31 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, earnings optimism, investment manager performance anxiety, technical buying, less economic pessimism, buyout speculation, diminishing financial sector fear and lower long-term rates.
- Insurers such as WellPoint Inc. and Blue Cross Blue Shield and drugmakers are redoubling their efforts to fight proposals to overhaul the U.S health-care system, adding another obstacle as legislative hurdles mount. The insurers oppose competition from a new government-run program that’s included in both the House and Senate plans. The trade group representing drugmakers such as Pfizer Inc. says a House provision to allow the government to negotiate drug prices for Medicare would cost tens of thousands of jobs. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi won passage of her version of the legislation on Nov. 7 only after forcing her party’s liberal wing to make concessions and can’t count on those votes for a final version. In the Senate, time is running out to get a bill passed this year, leaving the effort vulnerable to a loss of momentum and a new backlash from Republicans in 2010. “They know they don’t have 60 votes,” said former Senator John Breaux, who now heads a lobbying firm that represents the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the drug industry’s Washington trade group. “They have to go back to the drawing board” on the plan to set up a government-run insurer, he said. Without Snowe and Lieberman, Reid is at least one vote shy of the 60 he needs, and he risks losing weeks to a fruitless push for the public option. Should work spill into next year, breaks in the schedule and looming elections may open the effort up to the same types of criticism that dogged Democrats during their August recess. Reid faces additional pressure because just one senator can effectively block legislation through procedural means. His colleagues say he will struggle to find enough votes to even begin a debate that senators say may last as long as six weeks. “We are far from the end of the debate in the Senate,” said Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, on yesterday’s “Face the Nation” program on CBS. The Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association, a federation of plans that it says cover more than 100 million members, released a statement criticizing the House plan minutes after it passed. The legislation “undermines the goals of comprehensive health-care reform,” the group said. “This legislation will significantly increase health-care costs and force many Americans to accept changes to the insurance plans they currently have and value,” said Angela Braly, chief executive officer of Indianapolis-based WellPoint, in an Oct. 28 earnings conference call. At least on the House side, the insurers’ battle is being joined by drugmakers. “While well-intentioned, the bill -- as passed -- would have the unintended consequences of killing tens of thousands of jobs in our industry,” said Ken Johnson, senior vice president of PhRMA, which represents New York-based Pfizer, Whitehouse Station, New Jersey-based Merck & Co. and other drug manufacturers. Pelosi lost the votes of 39 House Democrats this weekend and can’t count on all the votes she did win for a House-Senate compromise. Some Democrats who favor abortion rights and voted for the legislation said they won’t support a final bill that contains the funding restriction. “To say that this amendment is a wolf in sheep’s clothing would be an understatement of a lifetime,” Representative Diana DeGette, a Colorado Democrat, said during the debate. The prospect of having the bill fail may force negotiators to include scaled-back versions of both proposals, said Clinton Stretch, a former congressional aide and principal at the Deloitte Tax LLC consulting firm in Washington. “The political risks of failure are pretty high,” he said.
- Fannie Mae(FNM) is reviewing whether it will have to write down $5.2 billion in low-income housing tax credits after the U.S. Treasury rejected its request to sell the investments, the mortgage-finance company said today. The Treasury found an agreement to sell about half of Fannie Mae’s credits would have cost taxpayers more than the company would gain from the deal, according to a letter sent Nov. 6 to the Washington-based company. The Treasury was considering whether to let Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) buy credits, which could be used to lower the firm’s tax bill.
- Google Inc.(GOOG), owner of the world’s most popular Internet search engine, agreed to pay $750 million in stock for AdMob Inc., a mobile-phone advertising startup backed by Google investor Sequoia Capital. The purchase is designed to shore up Google’s position in the market for mobile advertising as the growth of Internet ads on desktop computers slows. AdMob, which sells ads displayed on the small screens of wireless devices, has benefited from the popularity of smart phones, such as Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Research In Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry. “Mobile advertising has enormous potential as a marketing medium and while this industry is still in the early stages of development, AdMob has already made exceptional progress in a very short time,” Susan Wojcicki, Google’s vice president of product management, said in the statement.
Wall Street Journal:
- Is the Environmental Protection Agency trying to stifle dissenting views on climate change? The EPA has told two longtime agency veterans and outspoken critics of the administration’s cap-and-trade plan to remove any references to the agency in their critiques and to get approval for any future “outside writing projects.” That includes removing their critical video from You Tube. Laurie Williams and Allan Zabel, a married couple and EPA lawyers in San Francisco, have been railing against cap-and-trade proposals for a while. Most recently, they had a sharply-worded op-ed in the Washington Post that said current legislation would be ineffective and even counterproductive. The couple stressed that the views they expressed were their own—not the agency’s. But they also stressed that their years of experience with the EPA, and specifically working on other cap-and-trade programs, informed their views. Now Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility has jumped into the fray. The organization, which groups public-sector employees concerned with environmental questions, has re-posted the banned video and come out in defense of the two attorneys: “EPA is abusing ethics rules to gag two conscientious employees who have every right to speak out as citizens,” stated PEER Executive Director Jeff Ruch, who has re-posted the original video and its script. “EPA reversed itself because someone in headquarters had a tantrum about their Washington Post essay.” Even folks who shudder at the lawyers’ arguments worry that the current spat doesn’t look good for free speech, notes Dave Roberts at Grist.
- On the way down and on the way up, home prices always lag sales, but they may be beginning to catch up. A new report from Zillow.com finds home values stabilized in the third quarter of this year, as sales of new and existing homes grew. "While 116 metropolitan areas experienced Q3 year-over-year declines in home values, only nine metropolitan areas saw accelerating year-over year home value declines," according to the report. That is resulting in slightly improved negative equity. Zillow finds 21 percent of single-family home owners are in a negative equity position in Q3, as compared to 23 percent at the end of Q2.
- Angola's oil industry is booming as money pours in after the end of three decades of civil war, and officials say output could increase by as much as two-thirds over the next five years. Buoyed by a scramble for energy and raw materials by China and other emerging nations, oil companies are spending tens of billions of dollars drilling oil and gas wells deep below the Atlantic many miles off the African coast. Production capacity has increased steadily over the last two years and oil analysts say Angola could now comfortably pump at least 2 million barrels per day (bpd) and is increasingly only held back by political constraints. Angola is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), holding the presidency of the 12-member grouping this year, and has been limiting output with other OPEC states to help stabilize oil prices in the wake of the global economic crisis. But dozens of new Angolan oilfields will come on stream between 2011 and 2015 and oil analysts expect output to increase steadily to between 2.5 and 3.0 million over this period. "By 2015, Angola should be looking at oil production closer to 3 million bpd," said Thomas Pearmain, African energy analyst at IHS Global Insight. Angola has probable oil reserves of 13-19 billion barrels, giving it the third largest hydrocarbon resources in Africa behind Libya and Nigeria, analysts say, but the rate of discovery of new Angolan oilfields is outpacing its rivals and its production is beginning to accelerate.
- Iran has charged three US citizens with spying two months after the trio were arrested having walked across the border from neighboring Iraq, a top judiciary official said On Monday. “Their charge is espionage,” Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, Tehran’s prosecutor general told the official IRNA news agency, adding that the results of the ongoing investigation would be announced in the “not-so-distant future”. The charges could further sour relations between Iran and the US. Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, immediately called on Tehran to release the three hikers. ”We believe strongly that there is no evidence to support any charge whatsoever,” Mrs Clinton said on a visit to Berlin.
Globe and Mail:
- General Motors Corp. will invest about $94 million to increase production capacity at one of its Canadian auto assembly plants.