- Asia-Pacific leaders conceded a binding global-warming accord at next month’s climate summit in Copenhagen is out of reach and aimed to strike a political deal that will push a more comprehensive deal down the road. U.S. President Barack Obama and other leaders gathered for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Singapore agreed on a two-step approach to negotiating a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol presented by Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, who is leading the group overseeing the United Nations-sponsored climate talks. “Even if we may not hammer out the last dots of a legally binding instrument, I do believe a political binding agreement with specific commitment to mitigation and finance provides a strong basis for immediate action in the years to come,” Rasmussen said. - President Barack Obama flew to Shanghai from an Asia-Pacific summit where leaders questioned his commitment to free trade, endorsed China’s stance on fighting protectionism and declined to back U.S. calls for a stronger yuan. The 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, representing 54 percent of the global economy, pledged in a statement yesterday to “refrain from raising new barriers” to investment and trade. They didn’t mention currency distortions, which U.S. companies say give China unfair trade advantages. “The challenge Obama is facing is that the influence of the U.S. is rapidly waning and that he has little credibility” on trade issues, said Marc Faber, who manages about $300 million in Asian shares at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. “Obama talked about free trade, but recently the U.S. slapped tariffs on Chinese-made tire imports.” Obama needs to show the same commitment to free trade as his predecessor, George W. Bush, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said during a Nov. 13 panel discussion in Singapore.
- The financial crisis hasn't been kind to General Electric Co.(GE) Its stock has lost almost half its value, the government has stepped in to prop up its enormous financial arm, and sales have slumped in core industrial businesses. But Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt now has his eye on a huge new pool of potential revenue: Uncle Sam's stimulus dollars. Mr. Immelt, a registered Republican, quips about the shift in thinking in the nation's corner offices: "We're all Democrats now." GE has high hopes for the strategy. It says that over the next three years or so it could bring in as much as $192 billion from projects funded by governments around the globe, such as electric-grid modernization, renewable-energy generation and health-care technology upgrades. The company is just starting to see a payoff. Last month, for example, President Barack Obama announced $3.4 billion in government-stimulus grants for power-grid projects. About one-third of the recipients are GE customers. GE expects them to use a good chunk of that money to buy its equipment. The government has taken on a giant role in the U.S. economy over the past year, penetrating further into the private sector than anytime since the 1930s. Some companies are treating the government's growing reach -- and ample purse -- as a giant opportunity, and are tailoring their strategies accordingly. For GE, once a symbol of boom-time capitalism, the changed landscape has left it trawling for government dollars on four continents. A close look at GE's campaign to harvest stimulus money shows Mr. Immelt to be its driving force. The 53-year-old executive supported the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain, yet scored an invitation onto the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. Inside GE, he pushed his managers hard to devise plans for capturing government money. As part of that effort, GE has promoted policy proposals such as a government-backed power-grid modernization, and pressed the government to increase the size of stimulus grants for that purpose. It also has helped customers design projects and apply for government money, with the expectation that those customers will then buy GE equipment. "I think we will do better than most on the stimulus," Mr. Immelt told analysts in April. The strategy is not without risks, say two GE executives who have been critical of the plan. Government policy could change. Mr. Immelt's push to corral federal money began even before Mr. Obama took office. In December, with the economy in a skid, Mr. Immelt was under fire from shareholders. Advisers to Ecomagination, the company's green-technology-development initiative, gathered at GE's boardroom in midtown Manhattan. Among other things, the group discussed how an Obama stimulus plan might shape the nation's energy future. Mr. Immelt concluded that the company needed to capitalize on the surge in government spending. According to two people present at the meeting, Mr. Immelt told the group that business people needed to support the Democrats' stimulus package. By January, Mr. Immelt had become a leading corporate voice in favor of the $787 billion stimulus bill, supporting it in op-ed pieces and speeches. Reporters who called the Obama administration for information on renewable-energy provisions in the legislation were directed to GE. As the bill worked its way through Congress, GE lobbyists pressed for grants, tax cuts or rebates aimed at businesses GE is engaged in, including provisions worth more than $80 billion for energy projects, appliances, health-care information systems and wind farms. When the stimulus package was rolled out, Mr. Immelt instructed executives leading the company's major business units "to put together swat teams to get stimulus money, and [identify] who to fire if they don't get the money," says a person who heard him issue the instructions. In February, a few days after President Obama signed the stimulus plan, GE lawyers, lobbyists and executives crowded into a conference room at GE's Washington office to figure out how to parlay billions of dollars in spending provisions into GE contracts. Staffers from coal, renewable-energy, health-care and other business units broke into small groups to figure out "how to help companies" -- its customers, in particular -- "get those funds," according to one person who attended. Separately, Mr. Immelt got an invitation to serve on the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, which would afford him access to the president's economic inner circle. At the board's first public meeting in May, Mr. Immelt and fellow board member John Doerr, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist and prominent Democrat, led a discussion of the advantages to business of a proposal to make companies pay for greenhouse-gas emissions. The board voted to adopt that position. One plank of the stimulus bill provides for energy grants for the development of "smart grids" -- sophisticated transmission systems in which power consumption and demand is carefully monitored to conserve energy. GE says it, along with others, urged the Department of Energy to increase its maximum energy grant 10-fold, to $200 million. Then GE helped some 100 customers, mostly power providers such as Florida Power & Light, to apply for money. Of the 100 smart-grid grant recipients Mr. Obama announced last month, one-third were GE clients. GE declines to say what portion of the $3.4 billion in government money went to its customers. Its executives have told analysts that GE stands to reap up to $500 million in contracts from every smart-grid project built in a city with a population of more than one million. GE has said that the state of FloridaMiami, we ought to be able to do this in 100 more large cities across the country," Steve Fludder, vice president of GE's Ecomagination green-technology initiative, told analysts at a conference in May. GE has said that its goal is to increase its Ecomagination revenues to $25 billion by 2010, from $18 billion in 2008. GE spent $7.55 million lobbying in the second quarter, a 34% increase from the year-earlier period and more than any other single company, according to federal data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. The effort could be hampered if Congress or the administration, anxious about rising unemployment and a growing deficit, decides to cut back on stimulus programs or redirect money toward job-creating measures less beneficial to GE, such as employer-tax credits. and partners plan to invest $800 million by 2014 to upgrade its power grid, and that the bulk of the equipment would come from GE. "If we can do this in
- Any investor who followed the old market adage to "Sell in May and go away" is probably feeling left behind, with the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500-stock index up 25% since the end of April. No regrets; there may be more where that came from. The period from November through April historically has been the best six months of the year for U.S. stocks, and even better for the market's most cyclical sectors. "Whether you look back to 1990, 1970, 1945 or 1929, the S&P 500'sperformance from November through April substantially outperformed the market's typical price change from May through October," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, wrote in a recent report to clients. Moreover, the S&P 500's cyclical, economically sensitive sectors have been the warmest places to invest through the winter. During this timeframe, the Industrials, Materials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors traditionally recorded their strongest price gains and frequencies of beating the market.
- The German government wills tick to plans to cut taxes as part of lat month’s agreement between the two ruling coalition parties, citing Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
- SAP AG plans to raise fees it charges customers to service software.The fees will be increased to 22% of the licensing costs by 2015 from 17%.
SonntagsZeitung:
- Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Hans-Ulrich Doerig said most of the financial crisis is over and he expects “low” growth in the coming years.Doerig also said he never wants government assistance for Credit Suisse.
Maeil Business Newspaper:
- Samsung Electronics Co. raised its flat-panel television shipment target for this year by 15%, citing industry officials.
Yediot Ahronot:
- French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that Iran has effectively rejected a deal offered by international negotiators seeking to prevent it from building a nuclear weapon, citing an interview. None of the attempts to reach a deal with Iran has gone well, Kouchner said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's: - Made positive comments on (GMCR), (MON), (WFMI), (BBY), (FDX), (XOM), (FMC), (COH), (GPS) and (WYN).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (TOL), raised target to $25.
- Reiterated Buy on (CVG), target $14.
- Reiterated Buy on (CIEN), target $17.50.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.50% on avg.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 104.0 -6.5 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.63%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.50%.
- Advance Retail Sales for October are estimated to rise +.9% versus a -1.5% decline in September.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in September.
- Empire Manufacturing for November is estimated to fall to 30.0 versus a reading of 34.57 in October.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for September are estimated to fall -.7% versus a -1.5% decline in August.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking, (KO) Investor Day, (WIT) Analyst Day, (TGH) Investor Event, (IART) Analyst Forum, Treasury Bill Auctions, Deutsche Bank Gaming Forum and the (RAI) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on mostly positive earnings reports, technical buying, short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety, seasonal strength, buyout speculation, less economic fear and diminishing financial sector pessimism.My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.