Thursday, November 19, 2009

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, reflecting gains in orders and sales. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 16.7, higher than forecast, from 11.5 in October, figures from the bank showed today. Readings greater than zero signal growth. Rising foreign demand and record declines in inventories are giving factories incentive to rev up assembly lines. A rebound in manufacturing has helped the economy emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s and may further support growth in coming months. “Manufacturing conditions are improving as we get into the recovery,” said Yasmine Kamaruddin, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Companies are still drawing down inventories, filling orders with what they have on stock.” The Philadelphia Fed’s index of new orders climbed to 14.8 from 6.2 the prior month, while the shipments index increased to 15.7 from 3.3. The measure of inventories improved to minus 17.3 from minus 31.8. A negative number means stockpiles are shrinking. The report showed the employment index climbed to minus 0.5 from minus 6.8 compared. As demand improves, companies may need to hire more workers, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 16. The Philadelphia Fed’s gauge of prices paid dropped to 14.9 after 21.3 the prior month, and an index of prices received improved to minus 1.5 from minus 4.3.

- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development doubled its growth forecast for the leading developed economies next year and predicted a further acceleration in 2011 as China powers a global recovery. The economy of the group’s 30 member countries will expand 1.9 percent next year and 2.5 percent in 2011, the Paris-based organization said in a report today. Output will contract 3.5 percent this year. The OECD, which advises members on economic policy, forecast 2010 growth of 0.7 percent in June.

- Rates for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell for the third straight week, offering a boost to potential buyers who may use a government tax credit to purchase homes. The 15-year rate declined to a record low. The 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent from 4.91 percent, the lowest since May, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest since records began in 1991.

- Republican lawmakers demanded a Congressional hearing to review whether the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was unprepared to deal with the bailout of American International Group Inc. last year. The rescue, which funneled billions of dollars to banks that traded with AIG, amounted to a “backdoor bailout” of the firms, Representatives Roy Blunt of Missouri and Spencer Bachus of Alabama wrote in a letter to Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House financial services committee. The New York Fed, led at the time by Timothy Geithner, gave up efforts to save taxpayer money on AIG’s rescue after the insurer’s trading partners refused to make concessions, the special inspector for the Troubled Asset Relief Program said in a report this week. Geithner, now the Treasury Department secretary, needs to tell Congress whether regulators got the best deal possible in the bailout, which swelled to $182.3 billion, the lawmakers said. The inspector general’s report “paints a devastating picture of government regulators ill-prepared to deal with the failure of complex financial institutions like AIG, and who failed to fight for what was in the best interest of the taxpayers,” Blunt and Bachus said in the letter today. The Fed gave up efforts after two days last year to negotiate discounts from banks that purchased credit-default swaps from AIG backing securities, and opted to pay them in full, according to the report from Special Inspector Neil Barofsky. Before the Fed stepped in late last year, AIG tried to persuade banks to accept so-called haircuts of as much as 40 cents on the dollar, according to people familiar with the matter. The Fed’s decision to pay the banks in full may have cost taxpayers $13 billion, or 40 percent of the $32.5 billion AIG paid to retire the swaps, the people said.

- The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. “It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”

- Crude oil fell for the first time in four days as equities dropped, signaling that the U.S. economy and fuel demand will rebound at a slower pace. Imports dropped as Hurricane Ida led to the shuttering of terminals along the Gulf Coast. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, used by tankers too large for U.S. harbors, was closed for more than three days.

“All I heard about yesterday was the unexpected draw in inventories,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There was little mention of Ida, which was a one-off, and the drop will be corrected in the next two reports.” Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.6 million barrels in the past four weeks, down 4.1 percent from a year earlier, yesterday’s report showed. “Demand is weak when you consider that the refinery rates are the lowest in more than a decade” and supplies are above the five-year average, said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Refineries operated at 79.4 percent of capacity, the lowest level since September 2008 when hurricanes Gustav and Ike stuck the Gulf. The average rate during the second week of November over the previous five years was 87.9 percent of capacity. “The fundamentals are still terrible, no matter how you slice it,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural- resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “The demand numbers stink. I don’t see us going much above $80 for a while.”

- Gold demand climbed 10 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months after investors bought the metal as a currency hedge and jewelry purchases picked up, the World Gold Council said. Global consumption increased to 800.3 metric tons as Chinese demand surged to 120.2 tons, the London-based industry group said in a report today. Total demand was 34 percent lower compared with a year earlier.

- Rigs exploring for or producing oil climbed to an 11-year high last week as a percentage of natural gas rigs. Oil’s price-linked resurgence comes after almost a decade in which gas was king, quadrupling its rig count between 1999 and 2008, based on data from Baker Hughes. Oil drilling has more than doubled since June, spurred by prices near $80 a barrel. US crude-oil output climbed to a four-year high in October as new fields in the Gulf of Mexico started production, according to the API. Output last month average 5.36 million barrels a day, up 15% from a year earlier.

- The price of Facebook Inc. stock on exchanges for private companies has jumped as much as 42 percent in the past four months as membership of the site topped 300 million users and the company turned cash flow positive. Facebook shares are currently selling for about $21 each at SecondMarket, said Adam Oliveri, managing director at the New York-based company. That’s up from $14.77 in July.

- Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government proposed new powers to suspend “abusive” short selling deemed to be endangering the financial system. The Financial Services Bill, laid before Parliament today and which applies to all financial firms, proposes giving the Financial Services Authority formal jurisdiction to impose “emergency restrictions” on short selling. The FSA would also have powers to force all institutions to permanently disclose short positions in markets.

- Elizabeth Warren, a chief watchdog of the government’s rescue of Wall Street, said the $700 billion bailout hasn’t stopped the “culture of excessive risk-taking” that led to the financial crisis. The Troubled Asset Relief Program also has “injected an unprecedented level of pricing distortions and moral hazard into the marketplace,” Warren said at a hearing today of the Congressional Oversight Panel on TARP, which she leads.

- Terrorists Inside US Increase Attacks, Panel Hears. Terrorist incidents over the past 12 months show that Islamic extremists within the U.S. increasingly are launching attacks against targets such as military bases, anti-terrorist experts said today. “The threat is now increasingly from within, from homegrown terrorists who are inspired by violent Islamist ideology to plan and execute attacks where they live,” Mitchell Silber, director of intelligence analysis for the New York City Police Department, said. Silber was among witnesses testifying to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which has started an investigation into events leading up to the Nov. 5 shooting rampage at Fort Hood, in which 13 people were killed and 43 were injured.

- Suntech Power Holdings Co.(STP) and Trina Solar Ltd.(TSL) plan to increase production of solar power modules next year after third-quarter sales and profits beat analyst estimates. The companies rose in U.S. trading. Suntech Chief Executive Officer Zhengrong Shi intends to boost capacity 40 percent to 1,400 megawatts by mid-2010. Trina aims to increase cell and module production to 600 megawatts by the end of this year and to as much as 950 megawatts next year. “The market is gaining momentum faster than anyone expected,” Suntech’s Shi said today in a phone interview from China. “We have to expand really fast. In the third quarter, we couldn’t keep up with demand.”

- U.S. consumers may not save money and could wind up paying higher credit-card costs if lawmakers force payment networks including Visa Inc.(V) and MasterCard Inc.(MA) to cut fees charged to merchants, a government watchdog said. “Identifying such savings would be difficult,” the Government Accountability Office said in a report today. “Consumers also might face higher card-use costs if issuers raised other fees or interest rates to compensate for lost interchange fee income.” The report may derail efforts to cut “swipe fees” paid by merchants on each transaction.

- San Francisco Bay Area home prices rose for the first time since November 2007 as fewer foreclosures were sold, MDA DataQuick said. The median price for houses and condominiums increased 4 percent in October from a year earlier to $390,000, the San Diego-based research company said today in a statement. The number of homes sold rose 4.2 percent to 7,933 for the nine- county region. Prices gained 6.8 percent from September. Sales of homes priced over $500,000 made up 36 percent of transactions, up from a low this year of 23 percent in January. Foreclosure sales were 32 percent of the total, the lowest since June 2008, according to MDA DataQuick.


Wall Street Journal:

- Conditions in Cuba haven't improved under Raúl Castro and in some ways are worse than they had been when his brother Fidel was president, according to Human Rights Watch. In a report released Wednesday, the group accuses Raúl Castro's government of systematic repression and creating "a pervasive climate of fear among dissidents and, when it comes to expression of political views, in Cuban society as a whole."

- Birds Eye Foods, the largest frozen-vegetable company in the U.S., will be acquired for $1.3 billion by Pinnacle Brands Corp. Owned by private-equity giant Blackstone Group, Pinnacle is one of the country's largest packaged-food companies with well-known consumer brands such as Duncan Hines baking mixes and Swanson frozen dinners.

- Many employers are planning to reinstate merit increases in 2010, but some compensation experts say base salaries are unlikely to return to pre-recession levels anytime soon, if ever. Of 555 large U.S. employers polled in October, 83% said they will give out raises next year, while only about half did so in 2009, reports Lincolnshire, Ill.-based Hewitt Associates Inc. None anticipate pay reductions next year, after 10% cut salaries in 2009, according to data Hewitt collected. Companies will raise salaries in 2010 by an average of 2.5%, the second-lowest level on record since this year, when salaries dipped to 1.8%, the survey shows. In 2002, companies raised salaries an average 3.6%, then the lowest level on record, which was down from 4.3% in 2001, Hewitt reports. "We're going to be living in the upper 2% and lower 3% neighborhood for a very long time," says Ken Abosch, North American compensation practice leader for Hewitt. "Companies have fought very hard to bring their cost structure under control and they're not going to easily allow costs to creep back."

- News Corp. (NWS) is working on how to charge for its online news at a fair price, James Murdoch, the media group's chairman and chief executive for Europe and Asia, said Thursday, a day after The Times newspaper provided more detail on its plans and a spring 2010 deadline to implement them. News Corp. wants to charge users either reading its stories online or for companies distributing its content on their Web sites.

- A U.S. Senate panel on Thursday battled over whether the country could expand oil and gas drilling in coastal waters without damaging the environment, spotlighting one of the big fights over climate legislation. The debate in the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee comes as Senate lawmakers are negotiating over legislation to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 80% by 2050. A vote in the panel earlier this year suggested any deal must include expanded oil and gas drilling--even though the environmental wing of the Obama administration's base and some Democratic Senators are opposed. "There's a need for balance," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), the top Republican on the panel. She said last month in an interview on C-Span that she would be "open-minded" about supporting climate legislation as long as it was tied to more oil and gas development and more support for nuclear energy. She questioned whether the Obama administration's approach on coastal drilling--it has delayed acting on five-year drilling plan--reflected her concerns. "The oil and gas industry can develop offshore resources with a footprint smaller than ever before," Marvin Odum, the president of Royal Dutch Shell's (RDSA) U.S. operations, said in prepared testimony. He cited a deepwater project in the Gulf of Mexico called Peridido that is to begin producing in the next few months, which Shell touts as the world's deepest drilling and production facility. Among the drilling techniques to be used is a type that allows more wells to be accessed from a smaller surface area on the sea floor.

- The Chicago Board Options Exchange has asked U.S. regulators to continue to allow options traders to use so-called flash orders, despite proposed bans on the practice for both options and cash equities. Bill Brodsky, chairman and CEO of the largest U.S. options exchange, said in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission that the practice helps retail investors secure better pricing.


CNBC:

- The Obama administration is promising to change the way it counts the number of jobs saved or created by the economic stimulus program, after the Government Accounting Office revealed measurement flaws in the current system. The GAO report made public today, part of bimonthly tracking of Recovery Act spending, says recent stimulus-related job claims by the administration are inaccurate. The number of jobs created or saved and the accuracy of those figures have been the subject of intense media attention, scrutiny and criticism since the White House touted the Recovery Board’s report that claimed approximately 640,329 jobs had been created or saved through the billions spent on contracts, grants and loans. The GAO says the numbers are incorrect and it provides scenarios where both understating and overstating the figures may have occurred. Here is a sampling of the most glaring flaws noted in the GAO report:


NY Times:

- In nearly a dozen recent terrorism cases in the United States, Britain and Canada, investigators discovered the suspects had something in common: a devotion to the message of Anwar al-Awlaki, an eloquent Muslim cleric who has turned the Web into a tool for extremist indoctrination. Mr. Awlaki, 38, the son of a former agriculture minister and university president in Yemen, has never been accused of planting explosives himself. But experts on terrorism believe his persuasive endorsement of violence as a religious duty, in colloquial, American-accented English, has helped push a series of Western Muslims into terrorism. Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, the Army psychiatrist charged with killing 13 people at Fort Hood, Tex., on Nov. 5, is only the latest suspect accused of perpetrating or plotting violence to be linked to the cleric.

- Nearly one in 10 homeowners with mortgages were at least one payment behind in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. That is the highest figure since the association began keeping records in 1972. It is up from about one in 14 mortgage holders in the third quarter of 2008. “Clearly the results are being driven by changes in employment,” Jay Brinkmann, the association’s chief economist, said on a conference call with reporters. Five million more unemployed people over the last year has turned into about two million more overdue loans, he added.

NYPost:
- Microsoft's(MSFT) Xbox Live online service, which is already competing with television networks for viewers, is now making a play for TV advertisers. The software giant wants to court Madison Avenue by measuring its Xbox Live audience in much the same way that Nielsen tracks traditional TV viewers. Microsoft and Nielsen have teamed up for a pilot program that will measure the second season of the Xbox Live game show, "1 vs. 100" using Nielsen's established TV ratings system.

Washington Post:

- Bailout program could be extended. Administration officials are grappling with how best to announce the extension of the Troubled Assets Relief Program(TARP) at a time when the economy is struggling and the unemployment rate is at its highest point in 26 years. No final decision about the fate of the bailout has been made, and officials are keenly aware that their preferred course contains risks. Officials worry that lawmakers, seeking to fund their own projects, may try to tap any large sum of unused money set aside for debt reduction, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the internal deliberations were private. Congressional Democrats are already eyeing the unexpended bailout cash as a source of funding for new efforts to combat soaring unemployment.


The Business Insider:

- Will the Apple(AAPL) tablet launch in a few months? In a year? Maybe. But as far as Apple's business goes, it doesn't matter. Today, a widely circulated report from Taiwan suggests that Apple's tablet won't launch until late next year. To now, it was believed that the tablet would launch early next year. The report could be hogwash -- the site that reported it, DigiTimes, has a flaky history. But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that it's correct. What does it mean?


Charlotteobserver.com:

- While many of his peers are hunkering down in the financial crisis, U.S. Bancorp(USB) chief executive Richard Davis is on the offensive. This spring, for instance, the Minneapolis-based bank announced plans to open a new capital markets and corporate banking office in Charlotte. On Monday, Davis, 51, was in town to meet employees, visit with clients and check out a trading floor set to open Monday in the bank's Hearst Tower offices. The bank has nearly 150 employees here in corporate banking, capital markets and a corporate trust business purchased from Wachovia Corp. in 2005. It has said it's adding a total of about 70 employees here by the end of next year, although Davis said the number could be higher.


Morningstar:

- Republican lawmakers Wednesday sought to preserve the current Treasury backstop of the private student-loan marketplace, rather than pursue more ambitious plans favored by congressional Democrats and the Obama administration. The House passed a bill in September that would effectively remove all private-market involvement in providing student loans. That vote was almost entirely along partisan lines. The legislation has become bogged down in the Senate, partially due to the continuing haggling in that chamber over health care, but also because of concerns by a growing number of moderate Democratic lawmakers over what has been proposed. According to lobbyists advocating both in favor and against the changes, the number of Democratic senators who have expressed concerns about the proposed student-loan-market overhaul either in public or private ranges from 12 to 20.


The Pragmatic Capitalist:

- What Are The Best Hedge Funds Buying?

Zerohedge:

- 13th Straight Week of Domestic Equity Fund Outflows As Market Rips 11% Over Same Period.


Cnet news:

- In a troubled economy, companies and consumers are looking for any advantage they can get. So it is that Best Buy(BBY) is jumping the gun by as much as nine days on Black Friday, announcing that, starting immediately, shoppers can get Black Friday bargain pricing on select products. The electronics retailer says that the come-hither pricing will be offered on "certain models of flat panel televisions." It will also feature reduced pricing on some home-theater products. The deals are available in-store and online.

- Windows 7 isn't just getting good reviews, it's also selling well, CEO Steve Ballmer told shareholders Thursday. Delivering opening remarks at Microsoft's shareholder meeting, Ballmer said that Windows 7 was off to a "fantastic start." "We've already sold twice as many units as any OS in a comparable time frame," Ballmer said. "Windows 7 is simply the best PC operating system that we or anyone else has ever built." By last week, Windows 7 accounted for 4 percent of Web-accessing devices, according to Net Applications; it took Vista more than seven months to reach that level. Addressing the overall economy, Ballmer reiterated that things seem to have stabilized.

Rassmussen:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14. That matches the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President (see trends).

- To Create Jobs, Voters Say Cut Taxes and Stop Spending. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 62% believe tax cuts are a better way to create jobs and fight unemployment. Only 21% believe that additional stimulus spending is a more effective tool.


Politico:

- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is taking fire from both sides of the aisle, as liberals and conservatives are now pushing for him to resign. In a tense exchange before the Joint Economic Committee this morning, Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) asked Geithner to resign over his handling of the economy, AIG bonuses and stimulus spending. “Conservatives agree that as point person you’ve failed," Brady said. "Liberals are growing in that consensus as well … will you step down from your post?” One of the "liberals" Brady was referring to is Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), who said on MSNBC Wednesday there is "a growing consensus" that Geithner needs to be replaced.

- Sen. Joe Lieberman’s threat to filibuster any health care bill with a public option could kill health reform this year — and embolden Democratic challengers who’d like to send him packing in 2012. But Lieberman doesn’t seem worried. “I don’t think about that stuff,” Lieberman told POLITICO this week. “I’m just — I’m being a legislator. After what I went through in 2006, there’s nothing much more that anybody [who] disagrees with me can try to do.”


TheStreet.com:

- It isn't Google's (GOOG) Android mobile phone success, nor the upcoming Chrome computer operating system. UBS put a $700 price target on the stock Thursday due to a rebound in good, old Internet ad pricing.


NYDailyNews:

- Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided not to run for governor next - but will run for U.S. Senate instead, sources told the Daily News.


AP:

- Companies fraudulently collected at least $100 million in federal contracts from a $4 billion government program designated for disabled military veterans who run small businesses, congressional investigators charge. The Small Business Administration failed to check if companies were eligible for the no-bid contracts for veterans with service-related injuries, allowing, for example, a contracting employee at a military base in Tampa, Fla., to improperly funnel a $900,000 Air Force contract to his wife's firm. Moreover, because there are few penalties for companies found ineligible, many were still being handed tens of millions of dollars in government work even after they were found to be flouting the rules, according to the report released Thursday by the Government Accountability Office. In many cases, small business owners falsely claimed they had a service-related injury to get the federal work — such as a $7.5 million FEMA contract for Hurricane Katrina work — and were only caught when competitors protested. In other situations, the small veteran-owned businesses were legitimate but then improperly passed the work to large or foreign-based corporations.


Reuters:

- Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) posted a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year forecast on Thursday, helped by cost cuts and a move to offer lower-priced home goods. The operator of the Williams-Sonoma cookware and Pottery Barn furnishings chains has updated its styles and slashed prices on some items to woo shoppers in the economic downturn. Throughout the quarter, response to the company's merchandise and marketing efforts was "progressively stronger-than-anticipated," resulting in improved selling margins, Williams-Sonoma Chief Executive Officer Howard Lester said in a statement. "The results are an indication that upper-income consumers are spending a bit more, which is not surprising given the rally in the stock market and the stabilization in the housing market," Barclays analyst Michael Lasser said.

- American Superconductor Corp(AMSC) said it expects fiscal 2010 adjusted earnings per share to grow more than 80 percent, helped by a strong backlog and lower costs, and reaffirmed its outlook for the current financial year. The company, which makes electrical systems for wind farms and turbines, expects adjusted earnings per share to be more than $1.15 for 2010. With more than $300 million of fiscal 2010 backlog in hand, the company has a strong platform to grow total revenue to more than $400 million in the year, Chief Executive Greg Yurek said.

- GameStop Corp's (GME) quarterly profit beat expectations helped by price cuts that stoked video game console demand and as used-game sales boosted margins -- signs a months-long period of gloom may be easing. The optimism is in contrast to months of dour industry sales reports as the sluggish economy discourages consumers from buying $60 games and consoles costing $200 or more. Consumers are returning to the stores for titles like new versions of Microsoft's "Halo" and Electronic Arts' (ERTS) "Madden NFL," as well as Square Enix's "Batman: Arkham Asylum" and Take-Two Interactive's (TTWO) "NBA 2K10." "In this category, it's less about the economy and more about the title catalog, and that started to happen for us in this quarter," Raines said in an interview. "We saw gamers coming back to us."

- U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Thursday said inflation is not an imminent threat and downplayed the consequences of the falling U.S. dollar. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher both said the U.S. recovery was underway but noted risks to growth remain.

- Google Inc (GOOG) is opening its much-anticipated Chrome software to external developers, as the search giant prepares to expand its reach into operating systems. The company hosted a media event on Thursday to show off the free cloud-based software, which it hopes to have on the market in netbooks ahead of the 2010 holiday season. Google executives said they designed Chrome with an emphasis on speed, security and simplicity. The software currently starts up on a PC in seven seconds, and Google said it is hoping to cut the boot time further.

Financial Times:

- A string of countries have edged towards imposing capital controls to stop short-term speculative inflows driving their currencies higher amid concerns about the growth of an emerging market asset bubble. On Thursday Brazil, which surprised the markets a month ago by imposing a 2 per cent tax on the inflow of money destined for financial assets, said it would further tighten those restrictions. The finance ministry imposed a new 1.5 per cent tax on the issuance of depository receipts, assets that allow Brazilian companies to offer shares on foreign exchanges.


Telegraph:

- Britain’s banks are in a worse state than those anywhere else in the developed world and show no signs of recovery, according to the world’s largest credit-checking company.


Leipziger Volkszeitung:

- Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is prepared to send more troops to Afghanistan and deliver arms to the Afghan army, she said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Value (-2.53%)

Sector Underperformers:
Oil Service (-3.63%), Gaming (-3.53%) and Semis (-3.34%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
MRVL, CEDC, CMED, JACK, SMTC, WGOV, SHLD, NTES, HEAT, INTC, DPM, TEN, PPD, NJ, DKS, MIM and JEC


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) CY 2) NTES 3) CDNS 4) GPS 5) DRYS

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (-1.69%)

Sector Outperformers:
Hospitals (-.26%), Retail (-.85%) and Drugs (-1.10%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
NTAP, TSL, CSIQ, WSM, CHCO, BONT, ASCA, SMRT, SLXP, DCI, STP and PVH


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ADSK 2) GME 3) WSM 4) NTAP 5) GD

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Limited Brands Inc.(LTD), the owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain, unexpectedly reported a third- quarter profit and boosted its annual earnings forecast.

- Wind turbines, solar panels and hydropower stations won’t be built fast enough to keep pace with global electricity demand through 2030, the International Energy Agency forecast. The CHART OF THE DAY shows a widening gap between power generated with renewable fuels and total consumption. That means coal-fired plants, which are cheaper and more polluting, will increase their share in the energy mix, discharging extra heat- trapping emissions that threaten to raise the planet’s temperature, the IEA said. To supply ballooning consumption in developing nations such as China and India, new generators will be needed that can produce more than four times the total electricity potential now in the U.S., the IEA said. That will cost $13.7 trillion, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations said, basing its scenario on existing state policies for fossil-fuel use. “We should expect coal to still be the primary generation choice in the future,” said Jose Garcia, senior associate at the consultant Brattle Group in Madrid. “It’s logical to assume that the least-expensive technology alternatives should become the likely choices for new generation capacity.” Burning coal will contribute 44 percent of power by 2030 compared with about 41 percent now, the IEA said. A ton of coal may cost $109 in 2030, less than $120 in 2008, the adviser said.

- The Delaware River Port Authority, operator of four toll bridges and a commuter rail line between Philadelphia and southern New Jersey, today agreed to borrow as much as $585 million to manage an interest-rate swap that will cost $111 million to cancel. The derivative, agreed with the New York unit of Zurich- based UBS AG in 2001, takes effect Jan. 1 and involves $403 million in outstanding debt. The board has paid $48 million since December, 2008, to cancel two other swaps, and won’t consider them in the future, Chief Financial Officer John Hanson said today.

- Federal Reserve regional bank presidents and U.S. lawmakers intensified a clash over giving Congress a greater say in appointing the central bank officials, who are now named in part by private-sector banks. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard today said proposed legislation to subject some officials to Senate confirmation is a “blatant politicization” of the Fed. Separately, seven House Democrats called for an “exploration of possible changes” in how the Fed is governed, saying there’s an “inherent conflict” in the way presidents are named. Proposed legislation in the Senate risks higher inflation if there’s too much political pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates low while the economy rebounds, some former Fed officials say. Lawmakers say private-sector banks have too much influence at the Fed, and that the regional Fed bank presidents focus too much on inflation at the expense of job growth. “This is going to be a big battle,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now a senior economic adviser to New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. “The danger is the new arrangement will politicize the Fed to the point that they don’t do what’s necessary” when the central bank needs to raise interest rates, he said.

- Chrysler Group LLC may have to terminate as many as 145 more U.S. dealers unless the retailers can find lenders to finance their new-vehicle inventory.

- Brazil will begin taxing the issuance of depositary receipts in international markets in a bid to prevent companies from selling shares abroad rather than locally, the Finance Ministry said. A tax of 1.5 percent will be levied starting tomorrow on the creation of depositary receipts by companies or investors converting local shares, Economic Policy Secretary Nelson Barbosa told reporters in Brasilia.


Wall Street Journal:

- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, propelling action on President Barack Obama's top domestic priority, unveiled Wednesday a ten-year $849 billion bill that would overhaul the nation's health-care system and extend insurance to 31 million Americans without coverage. The 2,074-page legislation represents the Nevada Democrat's first attempt to build consensus among Senate Democratic liberals and centrists, as well as the two independents allied with the party. One swing Democrat, Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, said he still has a range of concerns but suggested he might at least be willing to begin debate. "If you don't like the bill, then why would you block your own opportunity to amend it?" he said. Two other Democrats on the fence, Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, remained noncommittal Wednesday evening.

- General Electric Co. (GE) is the latest to issue a consumer loan-backed deal that is not eligible for a Federal Reserve program to boost this market. GE's $400 million deal is backed by credit card debt and was done as a result of reverse enquiry, according to Jim Harrington, a senior portfolio manager at Ryan Labs Asset Management. The bond, dubbed GEMNT 2009-4, has launched at 140 basis points over a benchmark.

- The Government Accountability Office, the congressional watchdog, will testify at a House oversight committee hearing Thursday that there are "significant issues to be addressed" in the accuracy of reports about the number of jobs credited to the federal stimulus program because of errors in forms filed by recipients of the money. Separately, the agency tasked with overseeing the program announced Wednesday evening that it had corrected reports by recipients who appeared to be in non-existent congressional districts, after being asked to do so by the White House. Discrepancies in the administration's count of jobs "created or saved" by the $787 billion stimulus program are causing headaches among Congressional Democrats who are trying to craft a new jobs program in the face of the highest unemployment rate in 26 years. Rep. David Obey (D., Wis.), who as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee will have a major role in any new jobs package, released a statement earlier this week calling inaccuracies in the stimulus recipient reports "outrageous."

- AOL has hired a pair of New York investment bankers, Morgan Stanley and Allen & Co., to manage the sale of its ICQ instant-messaging unit. Sources familiar with the situation said interest in buying the asset from two major non-U.S. companies prompted execs at the online service to put a process in place for a deal that will likely occur after AOL becomes an independent company in December.

- CHICAGO -- Hedge-fund titan Kenneth Griffin lost $8 billion of his clients' money last year. Now, he is trying to persuade investors to trust him with more. "We showed a level of human fallibility," he told his staff at a late-September lunch in Manhattan. The price of fallibility: a 55% loss in the big hedge funds at his firm, Citadel Investment Group. His funds' declines far outstripped the 19%, on average, that hedge funds lost as a whole, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. For the past year, Citadel prevented investors from withdrawing money they wanted to take out from his two main funds, Kensington and Wellington. Mr. Griffin is looking for the next big opportunity even though the hangover from the last one is fresh in clients' minds. He is launching four new funds and expanding in investment banking -- hoping to fill the profitable hole left by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Before his disastrous 2008, Mr. Griffin charted years of strong performance. Still, many investors are dubious about his recovery plans.

- Attorney General Eric Holder directly responded for the first time to critics of his decision to try the alleged 9/11 plotters in a civilian court, saying he was confident they would be convicted. At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday, some relatives of people killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks weren't convinced. They applauded when a Republican senator mocked Mr. Holder over his assertion that the men were more likely be convicted in civilian rather than military trials. In an encounter after the hearing, Alice Hoagland, whose son died in the crash of United Airlines Flight 93 in Pennsylvania, told Mr. Holder that she opposed his decision. Ms. Hoagland said he gave "short shrift" to military commissions. Mr. Holder set off a bitter debate last week when he said the U.S. would try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other accused plotters in federal district court in New York. Many Republicans, and some New Yorkers, have criticized the move as a costly threat to the city.

- Mortgage restructuring for strapped homeowners has emerged as a rare growth area in the economy as companies in the field keep hiring. Four of the largest mortgages servicers -- Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. -- have collectively hired almost 17,000 people this year, mostly to work with financially ailing homeowners. With the number of defaults rising, many are planning to keep adding staff.

- Condé Nast Publications Inc. and Adobe Systems Inc.(ADBE) are building a digital version of Condé Nast’s Wired magazine for electronic reading devices. The Wired e-reader application will be available by the middle of next year and will kick off similar efforts across Condé Nast’s magazines, which include Vogue, Vanity Fair and the New Yorker.

- A government panel's decision to toss out long-time guidelines for breast cancer screening is causing an uproar, and well it should. This episode is an all-too-instructive preview of the coming political decisions about cost-control and medical treatment that are at the heart of ObamaCare. As recently as 2002, the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force affirmed its recommendation that women 40 and older undergo annual mammograms to check for breast cancer. Since regular mammography became standard practice in the early 1990s, mortality from breast cancer—the second leading cause of cancer death among American women—has dropped by about 30%, after remaining constant for the prior half-century. But this week the 16-member task force ruled that patients under 50 or over 75 without special risk factors no longer need screening. So what changed? Nothing substantial in the clinical evidence. But the panel—which includes no oncologists and radiologists, who best know the medical literature—did decide to re-analyze the data with health-care spending as a core concern.


MarketWatch:

- NetApp Inc.(NTAP) on Wednesday reported a fiscal second-quarter profit that more-than-doubled from the same period a year ago on results that were led by strong sales of the company's storage-area-networking products. In after-hours trading, NetApp shares rose 3% to $30.43.


NY Times:

- John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who gained fame betting on the mortgage crisis, sees big opportunities to wager on price discrepancies in banking stocks, according to his most recent letter to investors. Mr. Paulson and his team follow 70 banks internationally and have analyzed whether they need to raise additional capital by forecasting earnings and aggregating estimated losses. The 139 percent surge in financial sector stocks since March 9 has led to “inefficient valuations creating what we believe are opportunities on both the long and short side,” he said in his third-quarter letter. The Paulson fund’s largest position continues to be Bank of America(BAC), which it believes can post annual returns of 34 percent for the funds through 2011 as the bank returns to profitability. (See a related article from Bloomberg News.) The New York firm has recently taken a large stake in Citigroup(C) and shed its stake in Goldman Sachs(GS).

Business Week:
- Detroit Mayor Dave Bing is struggling to save his city from fiscal calamity. Unemployment is at a record 28% and rising, while home prices have plunged 39% since 2007. The 66-year-old Bing, a former NBA all-star with the Detroit Pistons who took office 10 months ago, faces a $300 million budget deficit—and few ways to make up the difference. Against that bleak backdrop, Wall Street is squeezing one of America's weakest cities for every penny it can. A few years ago, Detroit struck a derivatives deal with UBS (UBS) and other banks that allowed it to save more than $2 million a year in interest on $800 million worth of bonds. But the fine print carried a potentially devastating condition. If the city's credit rating dropped, the banks could opt out of the deal and demand a sizable breakup fee. That's precisely what happened in January: After years of fiscal trouble, Detroit saw its credit rating slashed to junk. Suddenly the sputtering Motor City was on the hook for a $400 million tab. Detroit isn't suffering alone. Across the nation, local governments and related public entities, already reeling from the recession, face another fiscal crisis: billions of dollars in fees owed to UBS, Goldman Sachs (GS), and other financial giants on investment deals gone wrong.

CNNMoney.com:

- The federal government made $98 billion in improper payments in fiscal 2009, and President Barack Obama will issue an executive order in coming days to combat the problem, his budget director announced Tuesday. The 2009 total for improper payments -- from outright fraud to misdirected reimbursements due to factors such as an illegible doctor's signature -- was a 37.5% increase over the $72 billion in 2008, according to figures provided by Peter Orszag, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.


Forbes:

- Window Into The Wireless Future.


npr:

- Two years ago, a top psychiatrist at Walter Reed Army Medical Center was so concerned about what he saw as Nidal Hasan's incompetence and reckless behavior that he put those concerns in writing. NPR has obtained a copy of the memo, the first evaluation that has surfaced from Hasan's file. Officials at Walter Reed sent that memo to Fort Hood this year when Hasan was transferred there. Nevertheless, commanders still assigned Hasan — accused of killing 13 people in a mass shooting at Fort Hood on Nov. 5 — to work with some of the Army's most troubled and vulnerable soldiers. On May 17, 2007, Hasan's supervisor at Walter Reed sent the memo to the Walter Reed credentials committee. It reads, "Memorandum for: Credentials Committee. Subject: CPT Nidal Hasan." More than a page long, the document warns that: "The Faculty has serious concerns about CPT Hasan's professionalism and work ethic. ... He demonstrates a pattern of poor judgment and a lack of professionalism." It is signed by the chief of psychiatric residents at Walter Reed, Maj. Scott Moran. When shown the memo, two leading psychiatrists said it was so damning, it might have sunk Hasan's career if he had applied for a job outside the Army. "Even if we were desperate for a psychiatrist, we would not even get him to the point where we would invite him for an interview," says Dr. Steven Sharfstein, who runs Sheppard Pratt's psychiatric medical center, based just outside Baltimore.


MultichannelNews:

- The Consumer Electronics Association said it was "extremely disappointed" by the California Energy Commission's decision to set new energy efficiency standards for TV sets sold in the state. The five-member California Energy Commission voted unanimously Wednesday to require new TV sets with screen sizes 58 inches and smaller to reduce electricity consumption 33% by 2011 and 49% by 2013. "Simply put, this is bad policy -- dangerous for the California economy, dangerous for technology innovation and dangerous for consumer freedom," CEA's senior vice president of industry affairs Jason Oxman said in a statement. "Instead of allowing customers to choose the products they want, the commission has decided to impose arbitrary standards that will hamper innovation and limit consumer choice. It will result in higher prices for consumers, job losses for Californians, and lost tax revenue for the state." According to the CEA, the California Energy Commission has "repeatedly rebuffed" attempts from the consumer-electronics industry to provide input on the regulations. CEA claimed that "energy efficiency is a shared concern for all parties" but that said that "rather than build on these efforts, the CEC chose to create a new regulatory regime and micromanage the design and development of future televisions."


Politico:

- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said the Senate can't sit back for the Obama administration to investigate the shootings at Ft. Hood, so he’s pushing ahead with a Homeland Security Committee hearing to look into what went wrong before the massacre. There’s been some tension between members of Congress who want a thorough investigation into the Ft. Hood shootings, but the Obama administration has been hesitant about letting key government officials testify before congressional panels. Lieberman is holding a hearing Thursday on the issue. "We want to know what the federal government knew and what it did concerning Maj. [Nidal Malik] Hasan and whether action should have been taken based on information available to federal employees," Lieberman said. "We also will investigate how this incident affects our understanding of and defenses against the threat posed by violent Islamic extremism and homegrown terrorism."

- President Barack Obama says he is angry about leaks from his deliberations on more troops for Afghanistan, and said he considers such disclosures a firing offense.


The Business Insider:

- Vevo, the music video startup backed by Sony and Universal, with Google's(GOOG) YouTube support, is launching December 8th. Rio Careff, Vevo's CEO, promised us last week that Vevo would be a great experience with high quality sound and video. He says he wants to restore a "premium luster" to music video sites, while still preserving choice.

- Lloyd Blankfein Should Resign! By Charlie Gasparino.


USA Today.com:

- Cellphone handset maker Sony Ericsson will move its North American headquarters from North Carolina to Atlanta and close a half-dozen sites worldwide as it retrenches against what it expects will be a tighter market and cuts about 1,600 jobs globally. The joint venture between Sweden's LM Ericsson and Japan's Sony will consolidate product development operations by closing sites in Research Triangle Park; Seattle; Miami; San Diego; Kista, Sweden; and Chennai, India, spokeswoman Stacy Doster said. Atlanta was chosen in part because of its proximity to AT&T, one of the company's largest customers, Doster said. The city also is desirable as a "gateway into Latin America" because of its international connections through Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, she said.


AP:

- President Barack Obama's choice for a top job in the Treasury Department did not disclose all of her late tax payments until she was repeatedly prodded by Senate investigators, a congressional report issued Wednesday said. Obama's nominee for undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs, Lael Brainard, is the fifth presidential nominee to reveal tax issues during the congressional vetting process. Brainard was late in paying real estate taxes in 2005, 2006 and 2007 on property in Northern Virginia, according to the report by the Senate Finance Committee staff. The report also challenges the accuracy of a deduction Brainard claimed for running an office from her home. The challenge led Brainard to reduce the deduction on her 2008 return, though she declined to adjust returns for 2005, 2006 and 2007, telling committee staff she used a reasonable method to calculate the deductions.


Reuters:

- Donaldson Co Inc (DCI.) reported first-quarter results above analysts' expectations, helped by improvement in end markets, and raised its forecast for 2010, sending the air and liquid filtration maker's shares up 8 percent in after-hours trade.

- Riverbed Technology Inc (RVBD) is not interested in being acquired, its chief executive said, dousing speculation that the network equipment maker may be the next in a series of deals in the sector.

- Global LCD TV shipments jumped 38 percent to a record 37.5 million units in July-September, driven by government stimulus in China and Japan, as well as continued price erosion, research firm DisplaySearch said. It expects LCD TV shipments to reach 140 million units in 2009, up from its previous estimate of 130 million.

- The hotel industry, battered by the drop in corporate spending this year, is expected to see improved demand in 2010, which could fuel more deals in the sector, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels said on Wednesday. The consulting firm expects low interest rates, greater clarity about the demand for hotels and improving debt markets in 2010 will help spur hotel sales and transactions. "We do expect to see hotels potentially rebound first among property types and for 2010, we see some slightly positive demand trends," Josh Gelormini, director of capital markets research for the Americas, told a news briefing.


Financial Times:

- A large bubble is forming in China’s property market as a result of Beijing’s credit-driven stimulus program, one of the country’s most prominent real estate developers warned. Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country’s most successful privately owned property developers, told the Financial Times the asset bubble was leading to rampant wasteful investment in the sector, undermining the country’s long-term growth prospects. “Real estate prices should only go up because people want to actually use the space, but at the moment we can see more and more empty buildings across the whole country and in every real estate segment,” Ms Zhang said. “The rising prices are a direct result of so much money coming from the banks and the Chinese banks should be very worried.” Ms Zhang’s assessment was echoed by Fan Gang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, who warned on Wednesday that real estate in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was expensive and there was a growing risk of asset price bubbles. Ms Zhang said the current speculation should be a serious warning for the industry and the general economy. “In Manhattan, they have vacancy rates of 10-15 per cent and they feel like the sky is falling, but in Pudong [the central business district in Shanghai] vacancy rates are as high as 50 per cent and they are still building new skyscrapers,” she said. “If you look at GDP growth, then China looks like a new engine driving the global economy, but if you look at how growth is being created here by so much wasteful investment you wouldn’t be so optimistic.”


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (PVH), target $52.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 105.0 +1.0 basis point.
S&P 500 futures -.36%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (PDCO)/.40

- (SHLD)/-1.09

- (WSM)/.05

- (DKS)/.09

- (GME)/.30

- (KLIC)/.05

- (PLCE)/1.38

- (ROST)/.84

- (DBRN)/.33

- (GPS)/.44

- (DELL)/.27

- (FL)/.12

- (INTU)/-.15


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 504K versus 502K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5598K versus 5631K prior.


10:00 am EST

- Leading Indicators for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.0% gain in September.

- Philly Fed for November is estimated to rise to 12.2 versus a reading of 11.5 in October.


Upcoming Splits
- None of Note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The Fed’s Fisher speaking, 3Q mortgage delinquencies, EIA weekly natural gas inventory report, BoJ rate decision, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Morgan Stanley TMT Conference, Citi Healthcare Conference, (SLF) investor day, Keybanc Engineering/Construction Conference, Citi Small/Mid Conference, (ETH) investor conference, RBC Energy Conference, (AMSC) analyst meeting, (VRSN) analyst day, (MRO) analyst meeting and the (SNN) analyst conference could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.