Saudi King Counters Protests With $36 Billion as Tension Mounts. As unrest escalated across the Middle East, activists in Saudi Arabia demanded a political voice as well. Rather than promises of democracy, they got a $36 billion handout and a slap down from Islamic clerics. Saudi academics, writers and representatives of the minority Shiite Muslim population called on King Abdullah, the sixth monarch in the Arab world’s largest economy, to move the country toward a constitutional monarchy. Anti-government demonstrators are advocating a “Day of Rage” today. “Demands for political reform will inevitably increase in the kingdom as democracy takes root in the region,” said Thomas Hegghammer, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment in Oslo and author of “Jihad in Saudi Arabia.” “If the regime does nothing, tension will grow between conservative and progressive factions.” “The monarchy is trying hard to absorb demands for political change and cast them as economic demands,” Madawi Al- Rasheed, a professor of Anthropology of Religion at King’s College London, said in response to e-mailed questions. “Political reform is an urgent matter.” “If the news flow deteriorates further, and Saudi Arabia can’t prove that it can move more oil into the market, prices will continue to rise,” said Juerg Kiener, chief investment officer at Swiss Asia Capital Ltd. in Singapore. Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry said March 5 that demonstrations, marches and sit-ins are “strictly” prohibited under the kingdom’s laws, according to the Saudi Press Agency. A day later, the Council of Senior Islamic Scholars warned reforms cannot be realized through protests and “means that cause division,” the news service said. The unemployment rate is as high as 43 percent for Saudis between the ages of 20 and 24. The Saudi monarchy has experienced violent opposition to its rule in the past from militants calling for a more Islamic state, not greater political openness.
Bond Market Anticipates Greece Defaulting as EU Leaders Meet: Euro Credit. As European Union leaders haggle over their second plan to stem the financial crisis, traders are betting Greece won’t be able to pay its debts. Greek 10-year bond yields rose to a record this week and it costs more than ever to insure against a default, even though the nation received a 110 billion euro ($153 billion) bailout from the EU and the International Monetary Fund last year. Two- year yields exceed 10-year levels, suggesting a restructuring may come before the three-year aid program expires. “The onus is on EU officials to dissuade the market from the notion that a debt restructuring is inevitable,” said Robin Marshall, director of fixed-income at London-based Smith & Williamson Investment Management, which oversees $20 billion. “They’ve lost investor confidence in any resolution that doesn’t involve some form of restructuring.” EU leaders gather today in Brussels, aiming to agree to a blueprint to improve competitiveness, a plan Germany demanded as a condition for expanding the bailout effort. Investors will also be looking for signs that differences over how to solve the debt crisis are narrowing ahead of a second meeting on March 24-25 that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said will produce a comprehensive package of measures. Greek securities plunged this week after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s rating, already at junk, by an additional three levels, saying the probability of default had increased due to “implementation risks” in the budget cuts it is making as a condition of receiving aid. A restructuring of Greek debt is “a possibility” and investors may recover between 30 percent and 50 percent of the total value if that happens, said Moritz Kraemer, managing director of European sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s, on March 8. Credit-default swaps imply a 58 percent probability the nation will default within five years, according to CMA. Yields on the bonds of the euro region’s most indebted nations have jumped in the last two months as Germany, Finland and Austria rebuffed calls from Greece and Ireland to lower the interest rates on rescue loans. Disagreements also persist over the remit of the 440 billion-euro European Financial Stability Facility, which provided loans to Ireland, including whether it should be allowed to buy euro-region government bonds. Portuguese 10-year bond yields reached 7.70 percent on March 9, the highest since at least 1997, when Bloomberg began collecting the data. On the same day, equivalent-maturity Italian yields climbed above 5 percent for the first time since November 2008, while Irish 10-year yields touched the most since February 1993. “It doesn’t seem like a solution or compromise is around the corner,” said Orlando Green, assistant director of capital markets strategy at Credit Agricole SA in London. “We could see more spread widening if they are slow in coming up with a plan. It’s not all priced in yet.” Swaps insuring Greek government bonds rose five basis points to an all-time high of 1,037 basis points yesterday, meaning that it costs $1.04 million annually to insure $10 million of debt for five years. The spread between Greek two- and 10-year securities widened to 171 basis points yesterday, the most since May, when the creation of the EFSF convinced markets that EU government wouldn’t let the euro fail. Greece cut spending and raised taxes last year to bring down the budget deficit to 9.4 percent of gross domestic product from 15.4 percent in 2009. The government is due to announce steps for 2012 to 2014 this month as it seeks to bring the shortfall below the EU’s 3 percent limit. Its ability to boost revenue is constrained by an economy entering a third year of recession. GDP may shrink 3 percent this year, according to the EU and the IMF, after falling 4.5 percent in 2010. Such measures may not be enough to keep Greece solvent, according to Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, who estimates that the economy will contract by 4.5 percent this year, and 2 percent next year, causing public debt to spiral to 170 percent of GDP and making debt restructuring is “virtually inevitable.”
Emerging Inflation 'Danger' as Brazil's Fraga Assails Controls on Capital. Emerging markets face a “definitive danger” from accelerating inflation and should resist the temptation to impose capital controls to stem currency gains, said Arminio Fraga, the head of Brazil’s stock exchange and a former central bank president. The Bank of Korea raised interest rates for the second time this year yesterday after inflation exceeded its target ceiling for two consecutive months, joining Thailand and Vietnam in lifting borrowing costs this week amid a surge in oil prices. Brazil boosted rates five times in the past year after annual inflation quickened to the fastest pace since November 2008. “There is a definitive danger and I think we have to watch it,” Fraga, 53, told investors at an event at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York yesterday. Inflation is picking up after crude oil in New York jumped about 25 percent in the past year and futures touched $106.95 on March 7, the highest intraday price since Sept. 26, 2008. In developing nations, growing domestic demand and increased foreign inflows lured by higher yields at a time when U.S. and European interest rates are near zero are also fueling price increases. Investors withdrew $2.5 billion from emerging-market stock mutual funds in the week ended March 2, the sixth straight week of outflows, according to a March 4 Citigroup Inc. report that cited data from research firm EPFR Global. Investors are paring bets on shares in the fastest-growing economies after pouring more than $90 billion into emerging-market stock funds last year, the biggest-ever annual inflows, according to EPFR data. Banco Central do Brasil raised its benchmark overnight rate on March 2 by a half-point to 11.75 percent to cool inflation that accelerated to 6.01 percent in February on a year-on-year basis, from 5.99 percent in January. The central bank has an inflation target of 4.5 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points.
China February Consumer Prices Rise 4.9%, Exceeding Target. China’s consumer prices rose 4.9 percent in February from a year earlier, exceeding the government’s 2011 target for a fifth month. The advance was more than the 4.8 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists. Investors are concerned that monetary tightening to tame inflation may slow the Chinese economy, weakening a global expansion already hampered by elevated unemployment in the U.S. and sovereign debt woes in Europe. “Inflation and overheating are still a bigger risk in China than a sharp economic slowdown,” Yao Wei, a Hong Kong- based economist with Societe Generale SA said before today’s release. Producer prices rose 7.2 percent in February after a 6.6 percent gain in the previous month, today’s report showed. A decline in vegetable prices after the Lunar New Year holiday may have trimmed the inflation number for last month. Inflation may rebound to 5 percent in March, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Oil Heads for First Weekly Decline in Four on U.S. Economy, Demand Concern. Oil headed for its first weekly decline in four as signs of weakening demand in the U.S. countered concern that Libyan supply cuts will spread through the Middle East. Futures were little changed today and have dropped 1.6 percent this week after U.S. crude inventories increased more than projected and unemployment rose, bolstering concern the country’s economic recovery will slow. Saudi Arabian security forces yesterday broke up a rally a day before what anti- government demonstrators have called a “Day of Rage.” “If we weren’t seeing this Middle Eastern conflict, the abundance of stocks in the U.S. would be having a significant damping effect on the price,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “We don’t see any sustained bounce-back in activity to above average growth rates for a long period of time in the U.S. It’s going to be a prolonged recovery.” An Energy Department report on March 9 showed crude stockpiles rose to the highest level since 2004 at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade. Inventories increased 1.69 million barrels to 40.3 million last week, the highest since the department began gathering data at the hub.
U.S., NATO Allies Say They Lack Authority to Impose No-Fly Zone Over Libya. The U.S. and its NATO allies said they lacked the authority to impose a no-fly zone over Libya to ground Muammar Qaddafi’s air force, as European governments squabbled over the best response to the intensifying conflict. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 28 defense ministers agreed to deploy ships off Libya and said more planning and a United Nations mandate were needed to establish a no-fly zone.
Bill Clinton Says U.S. Should Support a No-Fly Zone in Libya. The U.S. should support a no-fly zone over Libya to help underequipped insurgents fighting to topple well-armed and well-paid troops loyal to dictator Muammar Qaddafi, former U.S. president Bill Clinton said.
Sudan, Yemen Ranked Near Top of Bloomberg Combustibility Index. Sudan, Yemen and Syria are among the nations most prone to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, trailing only Libya in a ranking of 20 countries in the Bloomberg Combustibility Index. Qatar, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates are rated by the index as least likely to experience the kind of turmoil that has threatened Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s rule and toppled regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. The index is based on variables including gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity, unemployment, median age, income inequality, access to information and repression. The repression factor accounts for 50 percent of the weight of the variables. It was calculated from the size of a country’s military per capita, length of tenure of the head of state, whether the head had a military background, whether the head is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, whether the head came to power in a military coup or following an assassination, military spending as a percentage of GDP and absolute military spending. The 20 countries on the list, from most prone to unrest to least, are Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Oman, Djibouti, Iran, Iraq, Tunisia, Bahrain, Algeria, Mauritania, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
Philippine Stocks Rally Unlikely to Last on Rising Crude, Union Bank Says. Philippine stocks, Asia’s best performers this month, have a “very low” chance of sustaining their rally as Middle East turmoil pushes up oil prices, according to Union Bank of the Philippines’s Michael Garcia. “Nobody knows when the political unrest will end and as a tactical measure we have taken money off the table,” Garcia, who manages the Philippines’ best-performing fund, said in a phone interview in Manila yesterday. “We quadrupled the proportion of cash we hold,” he said, declining to provide exact figures.
Loomis Bets on Asian Currency 'Surrender' as Central Banks Fight Inflation. Loomis Sayles & Co. is betting that food and energy inflation will prompt central banks in emerging markets including Indonesia and South Korea to raise interest rates and “surrender” the fight against currency gains. “We’re seeing a greater likelihood of stronger currency appreciation in a lot of the emerging markets, including in non- Japan Asia markets,” said David Rolley, co-head of global fixed income at Loomis, which manages $152 billion in assets. “If you’re going to fight the inflation war, maybe you have to surrender the currency war,” he said in an interview in Sydney yesterday.
Florida, 25 States Appeal Some Portions of Ruling Tossing Health-Care Law. Florida and 25 other states, after winning a ruling that President Barack Obama’s health-care law was unconstitutional, told a judge they will appeal unfavorable portions of that decision and earlier ones in the case as the U.S. government pursues its appeal.
Wall Street Journal:
Threat of Trial Keeps Gadhafi Fighting. When Nigeria delivered exiled Liberian leader Charles Taylor to an international court in 2006, Libya's Col. Moammar Gadhafi, whose regime had armed and funded Mr. Taylor, called it an "immoral act" and warned that "every head of state could meet a similar fate."
Wisconsin Curbs Unions. Wisconsin lawmakers sent a bill eliminating most collective-bargaining rights for the state's public-employee unions to Gov. Scott Walker on Thursday, setting a precedent other states could follow in the broadest move in decades to curb union rights. The bill's passage by the state's Republican-controlled Assembly in a 53-42 vote ended a three-week stalemate that saw the state's 14 Senate Democrats flee to Illinois in a bid to stymie the measure and tens of thousands of people protest at the Capitol.
Banks May Cap Debit Purchase Amounts To Combat New Rules.Banks discussing limiting caps on debit-card transaction sizes may have a standard bearer in J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), which is mulling a $100 cap to help combat new rules. Limiting the size of a debit-card purchase could force consumers toward credit or charge cards, helping the banks recoup debit-card revenue that will be lost to the new rules. Banks earn higher fees from credit- and charge-card swipes; these fees were excluded from rules curbing debit-card fees.
Families Slice Debt to Lowest in 6 Years. U.S. families—by defaulting on their loans and scrimping on expenses—shouldered a smaller debt burden in 2010 than at any point in the previous six years, putting them in position to start spending more. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages and credit cards, fell for the second straight year in 2010 to $13.4 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. That came to 116% of disposable income, down from a peak debt burden of 130% in 2007, and the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2004.
Jury Hears Galleon Wiretaps. The U.S. government played two of its best cards on Thursday in the insider-trading trial of Galleon Group founder Raj Rajaratnam: testimony from its star witness and secretly taped telephone recordings of the former hedge-fund manager allegedly receiving inside information.
Ready for Unionized Airport Security?As payback for union support, the Obama administration greases the wheels for the largest federal organizing effort in history.
US Fed's Balance Sheet Grows to Record Size. The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded to a new record size in the latest week, as the central bank continued to purchase bonds, Fed data released on Thursday showed. The increase came as the central bank bought U.S. Treasurys as a part of its $600 billion program in an effort to help the economy. The balance sheet — a broad gauge of Fed lending to the financial system — expanded to $2.561 trillion in the week ended March 9 from $2.528 trillion the prior week.
MarketWatch:
GM(GM) Keeps Churning With Big CFO Shift. The Microsoft guy who brought his much-needed financial chops to General Motors Co. when the Detroit auto maker needed them the most is on his way out after just a year on the job.
Illinois Governor Signs Amazon(AMZN) Internet Sales Tax Law. After two-months of fence-sitting, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn today signed controversial legislation requiring Internet retailers like Amazon.com and Overstock.com to collect Illinois’ 6.25% sales tax if they have affiliate sellers in the state.
Energy Conversion Devices(ENER) To Slash Production as France, Italy Chop Solar Incentives. Energy Conversion Devices this afternoon warned that it will have to reduce production of its thin-film solar products as a result of changes in the solar incentive regimes in France and Italy, “two of the company’s key markets.” “The dramatic and abrupt shift in the French and Italian solar incentive structures has impacted our business and forced us to reconsider our near-term financial outlook,” CEO Mark Morelli said in a statement. “Recent events have injected disruptive uncertainty into the markets which is causing financing sources to put projects on hold and may impact as much as 50% of this quarter’s forecasted revenue.”
Skyscrapers Are A Great Bubble Indicator. According to Skyscraperpage.com, five of the 10 tallest buildings now under construction are in China. By 2015 the website estimates that Chinese skyscrapers will occupy spots Nos. 2, 3, 5, 9 and 10 of the tallest buildings in the world. Might the booming Chinese economy be susceptible to a bust? Is the skyscraper indicator describing a state of overconfidence and/or easy money?
Exclusive: McCaskill Billed Taxpayers for Political Flights. Senator Claire McCaskill's spokeswoman this evening confirmed that the Missouri Senator billed taxpayers for a purely political travel on a private plane co-owned by her family, a violation of Congressional ethics rules that deepens questions around her use of the plane. POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Scott Wong reported yesterday that McCaskill billed taxpayers for almost $76,000 for official travel on the twin-engine Piper aircraft, which she co-owns with her husband and other investors. Lawmakers routinely accept reimbursement from the government for their travel, but after the revelation that she used official public dollars to partially subsidize a private aircraft, McCaskill refunded taxpayers -- citing appearances, not any violation of ethics rules.
Consumer Confidence Falls to 2011 Low. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell more than two points on Thursday to 75.4, the lowest level measured since September 2010. Consumer confidence is down two points from last week and is down 14 and a half points from a month ago.
USA Today:
American Airlines(AMR) Again Bumps Up Airfares. American Airlines has bumped up domestic fares by $10 per round trip, which could trigger the seventh fare increase this year by U.S. airlines.
Federal Funding of Public Media Under Fire. Critics of the federal government's $460 million a year outlay to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) — which contributes to NPR and PBS— call the expenditure an unneeded luxury at a time when most households are awash in media.
Higher Cotton Cost Weighs on Aeropostale(ARO) Forecast. Clothing retailer Aeropostale Inc gave a weaker-than-expected forecast on Thursday, hurt by higher cotton costs, sending its shares down more than 6 percent. Soaring costs for commodities from cotton to grains to oil are squeezing many consumer product makers, forcing them to gamble with raising prices, even as consumers remain fickle with their spending. Aeropostale, whose profit margins have been hurt by deep discounting to lure shoppers, said it plans to raise prices this year on some products. It aims to offset costs expected to rise 3 to 5 percent in the first half of the year and 10 to 15 percent in the second half, but does not expect to recoup the entire increase.
Rising Costs to Hurt Zumiez(ZUMZ) Q1; Shares Fall. Specialty apparel retailer Zumiez Inc warned it could post a loss in the first quarter on rising input costs, sending its shares down as much as 8 percent in extended trade. "The cost pressures are real and it appears they are here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future," Chief Executive Rick Brooks said on a conference call with analysts. The weak forecast comes as a surprise after Zumiez, which has been outperforming peers for a long time now, posted a 12.8 percent jump in same-store sales in February, trouncing analysts' estimates of a rise of 4.2 percent.
National Semi(NSM) Quarterly Revenue Below Street. National Semiconductor posted fiscal third-quarter revenue below estimates as it worked through an inventory pileup but its forecast for higher current quarter sales was in line with expectations. The Santa Clara, California-based company's shares fell a little more than 1 percent in extended trading after closing down 2.14 percent at $14.16 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Financial Times:
BofA(BAC) Under Fire Over Staff Home-Loss Subsides. The Securities and Exchange Commission has ordered Bank of Americato include a proposal in its proxy statement that calls for eliminating a form of compensation that protects executives from falling house prices when they relocate.Bank of America is not the only company to come under fire for protecting executives against a downturn in the housing market during one of the worst real estate slumps in recent history. But according to the shareholder group that is trying to get the policy repealed, the bank has been one of the more recalcitrant.
The Independent:
EU Leaders Shift Focus of Rescue Plans to the Euro.The whiff of contagion swept through the eurozone once again yesterday. On the eve of a crucial summit of EU leaders in Brussels supposedly focused on averting a humanitarian catastrophe in Libya, the fate of the euro has provided an unwelcome distraction. In a move that may have fateful ramifications for the eurozone, the credit ratings agency Moody's downgraded Spain yesterday by one notch to Aa2, with a "negative" outlook, estimating that restructuring the savings banks will cost more than double the government's €20bn (£17bn) forecast. Referring to the cost of rescuing Spain's cajas, smaller regional banks heavily exposed to the property crash, the agency said it "believes there is a meaningful risk that the eventual cost of the recapitalisation effort could considerably exceed the government's current projections", putting the cost at €110bn to €120bn. Spain's highly autonomous provinces are also said to be an obstacle to fiscal discipline.
The Jakarta Post:
US Intel Official in Trouble Over Libya Remarks. The government's top intelligence official fumbled the Obama administration's message Thursday about embattled Moammar Gadhafi's fate, telling Congress that the Libyan leader will prevail in his fight with rebel forces there. It was the latest in a series of public gaffes for James Clapper, the director of national intelligence. Hours later, the White House distanced President Barack Obama from Capper's remarks.
China Securities Journal:
China Construction Bank Corp.'s new lending may be below 15% this year, citing the bank's Chairman Guo Shuqing. The government may increase banks' reserve ratio requirement further to control liquidity, citing Guo.
China Business News:
Wang Jianxi, deputy general manager and chief risk officer of the China Investment Corp., said the sovereign wealth fund supports banks to cut dividends so as to have more funds for development, citing Wang.
Shanghai Securities News:
China's Ministry of Land and Resources issued a notice to local governments calling on them to curb land price increases.
Evening Recommendations Citigroup:
Reiterated Buy on (JCP), raised estimates, boosted target to $50, added to Top Picks Live list.
Reiterated Buy on (CBE), target $74.
BMO Capital:
Rated (ORCL) Outperform, target $42.
Night Trading
Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +1.5 basis points.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 119.0 +3.5 basis points.
Advance Retail Sales for February are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.3% gain in January.
Retail Sales Less Autos for February are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.3% gain in January.
Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in January.
9:55 am EST
Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to fall to 76.3 versus a reading of 77.5 in February.
10:00 am EST
Business Inventories for January are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in December.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Dudley speaking, JOLTs Job Openings for January, (CI) investor day and the UBS Metals/Materials conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 +1.40%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.33 +5.51%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 180.08 bps +1.84%
Emerging Market CDS Index 214.44 +3.87%
2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +2 bps
TED Spread 24.0 +2 bps
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% -2bps
Yield Curve 273.0 -5bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $170.70/Metric Tonne -.52%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +74.90 -13.5 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48% -4 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -124 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Slightly Lower: On losses in my Tech and Medical longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish as the S&P 500 trades significantly lower, breaking down below its 50-day moving average, despite lower food/energy prices and falling long-term rates. On the positive side, Restaurant and Airline shares are higher on the day. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -2.23% and oil is down -1.59%. The 10-year yield is dropping -9 bps to 3.37%. On the negative side, Gaming, Construction, Disk Drive, Paper, Steel, Ag, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker, Alt Energy and Coal shares are under significant pressure, falling more than 3.0%. Small-caps are relatively weak. Tech is also underperforming again. Copper is down another -.45% and Lumber is down 2.05%. The UK sovereign cds is rising +3.42% to 59.64 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is rising +4.87% to 132.72 bps, the Hungary sovereign cds is rising +2.04% to 292.47 bps and the Spain sovereign cds is surging +2.04% to 257.80 bps. The European Financial Sector CDS Index is surging again, which is a big negative. Moreover, the US Muni CDS Index is rising +2.88% to 156.35 bps. The avg. US price for a gallon of gas is unch. today at $3.53/gallon. It is up .41/gallon in 21 days. The AAII % Bulls fell to 35.98 this week, while the % Bears fell to 32.32. Oil is trading very poorly given the news out of Saudi. The commodity has likely seen another significant top barring any actual supply disruptions in the kingdom. Oil's surprising weakness may actually being hurting investor psychology today given how many funds are long energy-related securities, combined with growing worries over global economic growth. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on growing Mideast unrest, emerging markets inflation worries, more shorting, tech/commodity sector weakness and technical selling.
Euro Weakens as Spain's Credit Downgrade Revives Debt Concerns in Region. The euro fell to the lowest level in a week against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service lowered Spain’s credit rating, increasing pressure on European leaders to find a solution to the region’s debt crisis. The shared currency weakened against most of its major peers as Spanish debt was downgraded to Aa2 by Moody’s, which also cut Greece’s ranking this week. Currencies of commodity- exporting countries weakened after China reported an unexpected trade deficit and crude oil prices fell.“The greatest risk that the market is starting to fear is that the spate of downgrades within the euro zone and the expansion of the periphery credit risks could force the European Central Bank to possibly delay the rate hike, which is already priced into the currency.” The euro declined by 0.8 percent to $1.3803 as of 10:54 a.m. in New York, from $1.3909 yesterday.
Bank of Spain Says 12 Lenders Need to Raise $21 Billion or Risk Takeover. Twelve Spanish lenders need to raise 15.2 billion euros ($21 billion) to meet new minimum capital levels or risk partial nationalization, the Bank of Spain said. Eight savings banks, known as cajas, need to raise capital. Local subsidiaries of Barclays Plc (BARC) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), and Spanish lenders Bankinter SA (BKT) and Bankpyme must also seek funds and have committed to do so, the Bank of Spain said in a statement in Madrid today. The lenders have until September to meet new core capital requirements of 8 percent for listed lenders or 10 percent for banks without shareholders that also depend on wholesale financing. They can seek an extension until 2012 if they commit to listing shares.
Jobless Claims in the U.S. Rose 26,000 Last Week to 397,000. First-time claims for jobless benefits rose last week from an almost three-year low, highlighting the uneven nature of the improvement in the U.S. labor market. Applications for first-time unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 to 397,000 in the week ended March 5, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast claims would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
The cost to protect debt from Morgan Stanley(MS), Bank of America(BAC), Goldman Sachs(GS) and Merrill Lynch climbed as reports cast doubt on the strength of the global economic recovery. Credit default swaps on Morgan Stanley jumped 10 basis points to a mid-price of 148 and those on Bank of America increased 6 basis points to a mid-price of 145 at 9:56 am in NY, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. Contracts on Goldman Sachs added 5 basis points to a mid-price of 117.5 and those on Merrill climbed to 146.5, the data show. "In the event of a slowdown in global growth, which in turn will put pressure on risk assets, financials will feel the impact on the earnings front as well as their huge balance sheets," Adrian Miller, fixed income strategist at Miller Tabak said.
Consumer Comfort in U.S. Drops to One-Month Low on Fuel. Consumer confidence fell last week to the lowest level in a month as surging gasoline prices soured Americans’ outlook about their finances and the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 44.5 in the period to March 6, from the prior week’s minus 39.7, which was close to the highest in almost three years. Sentiment suffered the most among respondents who lacked a full-time job or any employment and those earning less than $50,000 a year. Gasoline costs have increased every day except one since mid-February, dealing a financial blow to households just as the labor market shows signs of improvement. The added burden of higher prices at the pump may restrain the gains in consumer spending that are bolstering the expansion. “Rising gasoline prices extracted a toll,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. “Those at the lower end of the income ladder and those in the middle are being squeezed by rising costs of fuel and food, which does not bode well for discretionary spending.”
Green Mountain(GMCR) Soars on Starbucks(SBUX) K-Cup Coffee Distribution Deal. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) surged as much as 32 percent in early trading after agreeing to distribute Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)’s coffee and teas for its single- serve Keurig brewing systems. Starbucks, the world’s biggest coffee chain, jumped as much as 7.8 percent.
OPEC Crude Shipments to Fall for Fifth Week, Oil Movements Says. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce crude exports for a fifth time in the four weeks through March 26, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. Loadings will drop to 23.56 million barrels a day in the period, down 1.3 percent from 23.88 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 26, the Halifax, England-based company said in a report. Exports from Middle Eastern producers, including non-OPEC members Oman and Yemen, will decline 2.3 percent to 17.36 million barrels a day, Oil Movements’ data show. A total of 473.59 million barrels of crude will be on board tankers in the month to March 26, a drop of 2.3 percent from 484.51 million on Feb. 26, according to Oil Movements, which calculates shipments by keeping a tally of tanker-rental agreements.
Asia Property Commitments Jump 45% as 'Great Wall of Money' Target China. The money earmarked for property investments in the Asia-Pacific region rose 45 percent in the second half as China’s expanding economy made them more attractive, according to estimates compiled by DTZ Group Plc. Real-estate funds and companies had about $104 billion available for investments in the region, up from $71 billion a year earlier, the London-based property broker said in a report today. Local funds and companies accounted for 92 percent of the total, according to DTZ’s “Great Wall of Money” study. “China and Australia remain the most popular target countries in the region,” said David Green-Morgan, head of research for the Asia-Pacific countries. The region accounted for almost 32 percent of the $329 billion set aside for real-estate acquisitions at the end of 2010, up from 24 percent a year earlier, DTZ’s study showed. China attracted the most real-estate investment in the world for a second straight year in 2010, New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in January. Most of the $197 billion spent in the country was used to buy development sites, the property-research firm said.
Oil in N.Y. Falls the Most in Almost Four Months on European Debt Concern. Oil in New York fell the most in almost four months after U.S. unemployment claims increased and Spain’s credit rating was cut, bolstering concern that the global economic recovery and fuel-demand growth will slow. Futures slipped as much as 3.6 percent after the Labor Department said applications for jobless benefits rose by 26,000 to 397,000 last week. Moody’s Investors Service reduced Spain’s rating to Aa2, saying the government underestimated the cost of shoring up its banking industry. Oil climbed 0.7 percent earlier as fighting shut Libya’s biggest refinery. “A spate of bad economic news has increased concerns about demand,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “The supply losses from Libya have already been factored into the price, now demand worries are being factored in.” Crude oil for April delivery declined $3.33, or 3.2 percent, to $101.05 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 23 percent from a year ago.
Copper Drops to Lowest Price Since December as Imports Into China Tumble. Copper fell to the lowest in almost three months as imports slowed in China, the world’s biggest user, and amid rising concern that global growth may ease. In February, China’s purchases of copper and products tumbled 35 percent from a month earlier to the lowest in more than two years, customs figures showed today. “The market is down for a number of things,” said Rick de los Reyes, who manages $700 million at T. Rowe Price Group Inc.’s Global Metals and Mining Fund in Baltimore. “We still have geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and northern Africa. Now, you’ve got the European sovereign debt concerns coming back. On top of that, there’s a bit of weakness in the physical commodity market.” Copper futures for May delivery dropped 4.35 cents, or 1 percent, to $4.169 a pound at 10:18 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached $4.136, the lowest for a most- active contract since Dec. 17. “The market has been waiting expectantly for signs of life in Chinese copper demand in the post-New Year period, but so far the signs are not good,” said Nic Brown, an analyst at Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. in London. Most of the 550,000 metric tons of copper stockpiled in so- called bonded warehouses in Shanghai at the end of February was being used as collateral to obtain funds, Standard Chartered Plc analyst Dan Smith wrote in a report dated March 7.
Marijuana IPOs Provide Investors With Entry to Cannabis Boom. In an industrial section of Oakland, California, former Morgan Stanley investment banker Derek Peterson hops into a trailer being outfitted with shower drains, lights and humidifiers, all used for growing marijuana. “This is one we’re finishing up, what we call our bloom room,” he said. Peterson, 36, sells the trailers for $30,000 to $80,000 as “plug-and-play” facilities for cultivating pot. Customers don’t need to buy hydroponic equipment or even stay on-site -- lighting, temperature, nutrients, water and humidity can be operated remotely via an iPhone app. The legalization of medical marijuana -- permitted in at least 15 states -- has kicked off a booming economy in ancillary goods. Startups such as Peterson’s GrowOp Technology Ltd. and General Cannabis Inc. (CANA) compare the phenomenon to the California gold rush, when the people making the real money were the ones selling pick axes and shovels. Both companies are planning initial public offerings, part of an effort to remove the stigma from what’s seen as a multibillion-dollar industry.
Wall Street Journal:
France Recognizes Libya Rebels, Gadhafi Forces Advance. Col. Moammar Gadhafi's government suffered a series of diplomatic setbacks Thursday—with France formally recognizing Libya's main opposition group, the U.S. saying it will hold talks with the rebels, and European nations extending sanctions on the Libyan government and its banks. Forces loyal to Col. Gadhafi, meanwhile, pressed ahead in offensives against rebel-held towns. Rebel forces retreated from the strategic oil port of Ras Lanuf on Thursday, speeding back to opposition territory by the hundreds as Col. Gadhafi's army pounded the town with artillery, the Associated Press reported. The government also remained in control of the central square of Zawiya, west of the capital, after recapturing it from rebels Wednesday.
Chaos Reigns in Wisconsin as Democrats Prepare to Return. Wisconsin Senate Democrats prepared to return to the state Capitol, in the wake of the passage Wednesday night by Republicans of a bill that would eliminate most collective-bargaining rights for public employees' unions. The timing of their return, however, remained uncertain, as several Democratic senators said they wanted to wait to see whether the state's Republican-controlled Assembly passed the bill. "The plan is for the Democrats to be in Madison on Saturday," said Democratic Sen. Bob Jauch. "You can't do anything to block the bill," However, Democratic Sen. Fred Risser said the Democrats planned to meet midday Thursday and see what action the Assembly takes before deciding exactly when to come back.
NY State Senator In Corruption Probe. State Sen. Carl Kruger is expected to surrender to federal authorities on Thursday morning to face corruption charges. The probe threatens to topple a veteran Brooklyn Democrat, who as recently as last year commanded one of the Legislature's most influential posts. The expected charges would make him the third state senator to face corruption allegations in less than four months.
France's Lagarde: Increase in Oil Speculation Unacceptable. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Thursday that the recent increase in speculation on the oil market is unacceptable. "Since January there has been a significant increase in speculative activities on the oil market, such as derivatives and futures," she said in an interview with local radio France Info. "This is not acceptable." There is a need to set rules for those speculation moves that contribute to boosting the price increases, she said.
MarketWatch:
US Posts Record Monthly Budget Deficit. The U.S. government posted a budget deficit of $222.5 billion in February, the largest monthly deficit on record, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The government spent about $333 billion in the month and took in about $110 billion. Compared to February 2010, corporate tax receipts were 69% lower. On the spending side, the U.S. spent 29% more than a year ago on interest on the U.S. debt.
Business Insider:
The Gory Details: Tim Armstrong's Layoffs Memo. AOL is going to fire hundreds of people today following its merger with the Huffington Post. We have the memo from AOL CEO Tim Armstrong. Highlights:
JPMorgan(JPM) Says Dodd-Frank Favors Europe's Banks. New financial regulations emerging from Washington could increase the bottom lines of some banks — just not banks on Wall Street. The regulations instead encourage big European banks to steal business from their United States rivals, according to a new report by analysts at JPMorgan Chase’s British investment bank in London, JPMorgan Cazenove. The rules lose their authority at the United States border, leaving foreign banks to dominate.
Researchers Show How a Car's Electronics Can Be Taken Over Remotely. With a modest amount of expertise, computer hackers could gain remote access to someone’s car — just as they do to people’s personal computers — and take over the vehicle’s basic functions, including control of its engine, according to a report by computer scientists from the University of California, San Diego and the University of Washington.
More Foreign-Born Scholars Lead U.S. Universities. When Molly Easo Smith delivered her inaugural address as president of Manhattanville College last spring, she opened with an unusual line: “Welcome, namaste, vannakkam, namaskaaram, bienvenidos and welcome.” Three of the greetings were in languages from her native India: Hindi, Tamil and Malayalam. They reflected the striking journey Dr. Smith had made from her birthplace in Chennai — where she had never dated or been outdoors past 6 p.m. when she left at age 23 — to the pinnacle of American higher education: a college presidency.
Washington Post:
Saudi Police Open Fire at Protest. Saudi police opened fire Thursday to disperse a protest in the mainly Shiite east, leaving at least one man injured, as the government struggled to prevent a wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world from reaching the kingdom. The rare violence raised concern about a crackdown ahead of more planned protests after Friday prayers in different cities throughout the oil-rich kingdom. The pro-Western monarchy is concerned protests could open footholds for Shiite powerhouse Iran and has accused foreigners of stoking the protests, which are officially forbidden. Despite the ban and a warning that security forces will act against them, protesters demanding the release of political prisoners took to the streets for a second day in the eastern city of Qatif. Several hundred protesters, some wearing face masks to avoid being identified, marched after dark asking for "Freedom for prisoners." Police, who were lined up opposite the protesters, fired percussion bombs, followed by gunfire, causing the crowd to scatter, a witness said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of government retaliation.
All Facebook:
Facebook Fueling Gas Boycotts.People are posting on Facebook about nationwide gas boycotts — one occurring tomorrow and another on May 15 — at an increasing pace. In some states, the price of gasoline has risen as much as 47 cents a gallon in the past month, fueling consumer rage and pushing many to call for the boycotts.
Rasmussen Reports:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).
Reuters:
Libyan TV Reports Clearing Es Sider of Rebels.Libyan state television reported on Thursday that forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi forces had cleared Es Sider port and airport from what it said were armed elements backed by al Qaeda, a reference to rebels. Gaddafi's forces bombarded rebels positions on Thursday and moved towards rebel positions around the oil terminal of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, another oil port further to the east.
Soros, Albright Invest $250 Million in APR Energy. A fund affiliated with hedge fund billionaire George Soros and one linked to former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright are buying a controlling stake in APR Energy, a company that mainly supplies temporary power in developing countries, for $250 million. APR Energy, which dominates the market for international temporary power generation services along with larger listed rival Aggreko Plc, said it will use the investment from Soros' Quantum Strategic Partners and Albright Capital Management LLC to expand its fleet of power generators.
Federal Grand Jury Indicts Saudi Accused in U.S. Bomb Plot. A federal grand jury on Wednesday indicted a 20-year-old Saudi student accused in a bomb plot with targets including the Dallas home of former President George W. Bush. Jurors determined federal authorities had enough evidence to take Khalid Aldawsari to trial on a charge of attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction. If convicted, the former chemical engineering exchange student could face up to life in prison. U.S. District Judge Sam Cummings issued a gag order in the case on Wednesday barring Aldawsari and attorneys involved in the case from talking to the media.
Credit Suisse in $70 Million Accord Over Subprime. Credit Suisse Group AG has agreed to a $70 million settlement of U.S. litigation accusing the Swiss bank of misleading investors about its subprime exposure and ability to limit losses. Investors accused Credit Suisse of falsely representing that it had been successful in limiting its subprime asset exposure and losses from the subprime and credit crises because it had exceptional risk management and internal controls. The proposed settlement also covers several officials, including Chief Executive Brady Dougan.
Telegraph:
EU Paralysis Drives Fresh Bond Rout. Political paralysis in Brussels and monetary tightening by the European Central Bank has set off a fresh spasm of the eurozone bond crisis, pushing spreads on Portuguese, Irish and Greek bonds to post-EMU records.
Europa Press:
The Spanish government defeated an amendment repealing cuts in the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants.
Handelsblatt:
An IMF report shows that regulators haven't gone far enough in taming potential financial-market excesses since the economic crisis began. Banks remain too big and their businesses even more complex even after efforts to curb their latent capacity to rock the financial system, according to the IMF report. "We are at the moment even less well-prepared than when the crisis erupted in 2007," the report said. Co-written by IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, the document says investors are switching to financial institutions that are less regulated, such as hedge funds, in search of profit, creating new risks for the financial system.
Le Monde:
France is in favor of joint air strikes alongside the UK aimed at neutralizing the capability of Muammar Qaddafi to bombard his opponents, citing people at France's foreign ministry. France wants air strikes rather than a no-fly zone.
China Forex:
China should oversee an orderly outflow of capital from the country, including pushing trials to let individuals make direct investments overseas, Sun Lujun, head of the capital account management department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, wrote in a commentary. The country should appropriately raise interest rates to east pressure from cross-border capital flows, citing Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce's Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. China should properly tighten control on capital inflows, including slowing down approvals for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, citing Mei.
Libyan State-Run News:
Libya's state-run news agency said today it has learned a "grave secret" about the finances of the last campaign of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The secret will "definitely lead to Sarkozy's fall," state-run tv said in an on-screen news bulletin.