Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,397.11 -.50%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,397.11 -.50%
  
• DJIA 13,080.73 -1.14%
  
• NASDAQ 3,067.92 +.41%
  
• Russell 2000 830.03 -.02%
  
• Wilshire 5000 14,524.94 -.50%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 657.63 -.34%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 687.08 -.75%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 792.03 -.37%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,020.17 -1.97%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 707.17 +.42%
  
• Transports 5,217.82 -2.50%
  
• Utilities 452.76 -.19%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.05 -2.0%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,040.44 -.20%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 823.0 -1.50%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 538.97 unch.
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 145,252 -.36%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 3 -230
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.0 -61.8%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 234,592 -3.53%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,558,284 -1.32%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +38.67%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.03 +49.28%
  
• ISE Sentiment 107.0 -29.14%
  
• NYSE Arms .92 +37.31%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 14.82 +2.42%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.36 -8.75%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.14 +.20%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 11,054.87 -.36%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.622 Trillion -.60%
  
• AAII % Bulls 42.38 -7.08%
  
• AAII % Bears 27.81 +2.24%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 314.47 -1.09%
  
• Crude Oil 106.87 -.73%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 338.52 +.71%
  
• Natural Gas 2.27 -2.11%
  
• Heating Oil 321.01 -2.43%
  
• Gold 1,662.40 +.11%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 219.48 -3.56%
  
• Copper 380.85 -1.96%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 403.33 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 145.20 USD/Ton +.35%
  
• Lumber 238.60 -5.10%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,548.66 -.92%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.40% +100 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0065 +71.05%
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 108.30 +.32%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.40 -5.7 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/25
  
• US Dollar Index 79.35 -.16%
  
• Yield Curve 188.0 -5 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.23% -6 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.875 Trillion -.01%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.0 -5.08%
  
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 213.0 -1.11%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 227.99 +1.40%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 205.17 +.49%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.88 -1.72%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 84.38 +2.91%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 610.0 +24 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% -4 basis points
  
• TED Spread 40.25 +1 basis point
  
• 3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 44.75 -4.75 basis points
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.0 +8 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 91.52 +2.76%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 161.82 +12.07%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 239.07 +7.79%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 155.0 -4 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $2.227 Trillion +.41%
  
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 931.20 -.60%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 355,000 -.4%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.08% +16 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 681.90 -7.41%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.9 -1.2 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +3.30% +20 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.89/gallon +.06/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 35.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 908.0 +3.89%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 227.38 +.49%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.02%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -1.04%

Leading Sectors

• Internet +2.26
  
• Disk Drives +1.63%
  
• Computer Hardware +1.37%
• Biotech +.81%
• Gaming +.73%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -3.24%
• Road & Rail -4.20%
  
• Homebuilding -4.32%
• Coal -4.94%
• Oil Service -5.34%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• GMAN, SCVL, ASGN, KNSY, IQNT, ABVT, WPI, MAPP, LGF and GIII
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• RBN, DOLE, MYGN and AIR
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, Financial Sector Optimism, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 14.85 -4.62%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +63.08%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.07 -1.83%
  
• NYSE Arms .85 -51.42%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.52 +2.60%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 161.82 +3.37%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 227.99 unch.
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.15 -.05%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  
• TED Spread 40.25 -1 basis point
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.0 +1 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 188.0 -3 basis points
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $145.20/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.40 -1.6 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1 basis point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a -56 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating a +20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Tech and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added (SLB) long, then added some hedges back
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite rising Eurozone debt angst, rising energy prices, recent equity gains, rising global growth fears and more disappointing US housing data. On the positive side, Coal, Oil Tanker, Oil Service, Ag, Construction and Energy shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.25%. Small-caps are outperforming. Financial shares have traded well throughout the day. Copper is rising +1.0% and Lumber is gaining +2.2%. The France sovereign cds is down -1.4% to 173.58 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is down -1.8% to 1,200.57 bps and the Japan sovereign cds is down -1.6% to 104.34 bps. On the negative side, Homebuilding and Education shares are under mild pressure, falling more than -.5%. Oil is rising +1.4%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is gaining +.5% and Gold is gaining +1.3%. The 10Y Yld is falling -4 bps to 2.23%. Major Asian indices were mixed overnight as a +.96% gain in Indian shares offset a -1.14% decline in Japan. Major European indices were slightly higher, however Spanish stocks fell -.86%. Spanish equities remain one of the world’s worst-performers ytd, falling -3.3%, which remains a red flag for the region. The Bloomberg European Financial Services/Bank Index is rising +.32%. The Russia sovereign cds is gaining +2.0% to 178.02 bps, the Germany sovereign cds is up +.5% to 73.80 bps and the Hungary sovereign cds is up +1.69% to 542.95 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is rising +3.82% to 100.00 bps. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its mid-December peak despite investor perceptions that the US economy is accelerating. Lumber is -8.0% since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -45.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -20.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are right near a new record and have risen +746.0% ytd. I still think this is more of a red flag for falling demand rather than the intentional hoarding, which many suggest. The most economically sensitive stocks are substantially underperforming today. The blow-up in the (TVIX) ETN, (BATS) IPO debacle and wild trade in (AAPL) shares today are concerns for market psychology. US stocks still trade pretty well as most negatives continue to be ignored. The Homebuilding Index is recouping morning losses despite more disappointing home sales data. Commodity-related equities are leading the major averages today. (USO) is surging +1.4% on above-average volume. (UNG) has stabilized over the last 10 days. (OIH) is down around -7% over the last month. The beaten-up oil service stocks should see a further lift into quarter-end on short-covering/bargain-hunting. I took a long trading position in (SLB) into morning weakness. For the recent equity advance to maintain traction, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more financial sector optimism, euro bounce and investor performance angst.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Italy’s Labor Reform Won’t Spur Firings, Napolitano Says. Prime Minister Mario Monti's Cabinet approved a bill to overhaul Italy’s labor laws that will ease firing rules, facing down opposition from unions and political allies needed to pass the measure in Parliament. The Cabinet in Rome passed the changes as a draft law, as Monti decided against resorting to a decree that would have implemented the measures immediately and limited parliamentary debate on changing the draft. The government didn’t say when the measures would be presented to Parliament. The law “intends to create a dynamic, flexible and inclusive labor market capable of contributing to growth and creating quality employment,” Monti’s office said in an e- mailed statement.
• Oil Rises Almost $3 a Barrel on Iran Report. Oil surged almost $3 a barrel after Reuters reported Iranian oil exports will drop by 300,000 barrels a day this month because of tighter sanctions. Futures jumped more than 2 percent in three minutes on the New York Mercantile Exchange, topping $108 a barrel for the first time in four days, following the report, which cited Petrologistics, a Geneva-based consultant. Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said the gain may have triggered traders’ automatic buy orders. Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.60, or 1.5 percent, to $106.95 a barrel at 12:22 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $108.25 a barrel. Prices have slipped 11 cents this week and are up 8.2 percent this year. Brent oil for May settlement gained $1.89, or 1.5 percent, to $125.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
  
• Sales of New Houses in U.S. Decrease for Second Month: Economy. Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in February for a second month, a sign the recovery in the housing market may be uneven. Sales dropped 1.6 percent to a 313,000 annual pace, the slowest since October, from a 318,000 rate in January that was weaker than previously reported, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 325,000.
• KB Home(KBH) Falls the Most Since June After Orders Declined. KB Home (KBH), the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that targets first-time buyers, fell the most in almost nine months after it reported a decline in orders and government data showed new-home sales dropped in February. KB Home had a net loss for the three months ended Feb. 29 of $45.8 million, or 59 cents a share, down from $114.5 million, or $1.49, a year earlier, the company said today in a statement. Analysts expected a loss of 23 cents a share, the average of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Net orders fell 8 percent from a year earlier to 1,197 homes. KB Home dropped as much as 15 percent in New York trading, the most since June 29. It lost 9.5 percent to $10.18 as of 11:27 a.m.
• NYC Office Leasing Lowest Since 2009 as Wall Street Cuts Back. Manhattan office leasing in the first quarter is poised to be the lowest in almost three years as Wall Street cut jobs and needed less space, according to preliminary data from brokerage Studley Inc. Agreements will be signed for the rental of about 5.7 million square feet (530,000 square meters) this year through March, according to New York-based Studley's projection. That's the smallest three-month tally since the 4.5 million square feet leased in the second quarter of 2009, months after the credit crisis pushed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and froze demand for space in the biggest U.S. office market.
• China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Risks. Chinese banks misclassified about 20 percent of their outstanding loans to local governments, understating the risk that slowing revenue will cut borrowers’ ability to repay, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told lenders last month that they had incorrectly placed about 1.8 trillion yuan ($286 billion) of loans to local government financing vehicles in the safest category of lending, the person said, declining to be named because the matter is private. The banks erred in calculations and underestimated risks when they decided the loans were fully covered by cash flows from the projects, the person said.
• BATS Global(BATS) IPO Turns Ugly After Apple(AAPL) Halt, Quote Error. Bats Global Markets Inc. (BATS), the six-year-old equity exchange, saw its debut as a public company go haywire as a system error caused incorrect price quotes and Apple Inc. (AAPL) was halted due to a transaction on its platform.
• Dartmouth President Kim Nominated by Obama for World Bank. Dartmouth College President Jim Yong Kim was nominated today to head the World Bank, making him the first physician and Asian-American to lead the $57 billion lender that’s seeking to improve health care and education in developing nations. Kim, 52, a Seoul-born U.S. citizen who emigrated with his parents from South Korea at age five, would succeed Robert Zoellick, a former U.S. trade representative whose term ends in June. The U.S. is the biggest shareholder in the Washington- based bank, and its president has always been an American.

Wall Street Journal:

• Shipping Data Indicates Rise In Iranian Floating Storage - ICAP. The number of Iranian supertankers storing crude long term rose this week, data from major brokerage ICAP showed Friday.

CNBC.com:

• Average Investors May Finally Be Lured Back Into Stocks. Bullish sentiment among the most active clients of Charles Schwab hit its highest level since the current bull market began, according to a recent survey by the firm.
• Gasoline Theft Spikes as Prices at Pump Rise. (video)
• Contagion Risk in Europe Is Back and Spain Is Top Worry.
  

Business Insider:

• LeBron James Just Tweeted This Powerful Photo Of The Miami Heat In Hoodies To Protest The Trayvon Martin Killing.
• This Letter Mocking President Jim Kim Is Getting Passed Around Dartmouth Today.
• China Has Censored All Mention Of The Rumored Coup.
• Spotify Is Raising At A Stunning $3.5 Billion Valuation, Multiple VCs Say.
• A Blatant Example Of How Corruption Is Destroying The Indian Economy.
  

Zero Hedge:

• 3 Charts On Why Eurosis Never Really Went Away.
• About That $20 Trillion In Public Debt...
• LTRO Stigma Reaches All-Time High.
  

Seeking Alpha:

• 6 Reasons Why HFT Is Taking Over The Markets.

Gallup:

• Romney Expands National GOP Lead. (graph)
  

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17 (see trends).

Reuters:

• Iran Oil Exports Fall As Sanctions Take Toll. Iranian oil exports have fallen significantly in March, industry sources said on Friday, as some buyers stop or scale back purchases to abide by Western sanctions aimed at slowing Tehran's nuclear programme. Crude exports from Iran appear to have fallen this month by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 14 percent, according to estimates from industry consultant Petrologistics and a large European oil company. It is the first sizeable drop in oil shipments from the OPEC producer since the European Union announced in January plans to embargo Iran's crude from July and Washington and Brussels sanctioned Iran's central bank.
• Gold Rises More Than 1%, Set To End 3-Week Drop.
  
• Akamai(AKAM) CEO Sets $5 Billion Revenue Target by 2020.
  

USA Today:

• Romney: Why I'd Repeal ObamaCare. Friday is the second anniversary of ObamaCare. It is past time to abolish the program, root and branch. The Supreme Court will soon have a crack at this; arguments about the program's constitutionality open before it next week. But whatever the justices decide in what is certain to be a landmark decision, the case against ObamaCare extends far beyond questions about its constitutionality. President Obama's program is an unfolding disaster for the American economy, a budget-busting entitlement, and a dramatic new federal intrusion into our lives.

International Business Times:

• Japan Readies Missile Defense Against North Korea Rocket Launch. Japan's military is preparing its missile defense systems in response to a planned rocket launch next month by North Korea, according to reports. "I have ordered officials to prepare to deploy the PAC-3 [surface-to-air missiles] and Aegis warships [destroyers]," Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka told reporters. "We are talking to relevant local governments about the deployment."

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.10%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.43% 2) Education -.93% 3) Retail -.49%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• HNP, MXWL, DELL, KORS, NKE, GEL, AIR, MAPP, WTW, CVG, KBH, LAYN, SNDK, WF and DGX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) WLL 3) RRC 4) TOL 5) XLV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) XLNX 2) AET 3) KBH 4) ANR 5) CNX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.44%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.15% 2) Coal +1.93% 3) Oil Service +1.27%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SLW, CRZO, VELT, INFI, WIFI, AFFY, CPWM, UTIW, GPOR, MDSO, ESL and MWW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NKE 2) LSI 3) STD 4) ERX 5) KBH
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DG 2) DFS 3) FDX 4) MO 5) MWW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume