Monday, July 09, 2012

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

  • Spain Braces For Renewed Rajoy Austerity as Tax Take Hemorrhages. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may unveil a third austerity round within days as his six-month- old government tries to avoid a second bailout amid hemorrhaging tax receipts. Rajoy said on July 2 that the time has come to “press the accelerator pedal” as his government attempts to bring down near record borrowing costs. Government officials have said they are considering raising taxes on gas and products that currently have a reduced rate, such as food, water, public transportation, hotels and restaurants. Spain’s return to recession is undermining efforts to cut the euro-area’s third-largest budget deficit as tax receipts shrivel. Ten-year bond yields climbed back above 7 percent last week amid concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is worsening. Spain became the fourth euro-region country to seek a bailout in June to shore up banks burdened with bad loans. “I have my doubts because it is very difficult to boost receipts amid austerity,” Antonio Javier Ramos Llanos, economy professor at Madrid’s Universidad Pontificia Comillas, said in an interview. “Citizens see they are paying more tax and public services cost more. That doesn’t incite them to spend at all.” Receipts dropped 1.5 percent during the first five months of the year as higher levies on income, electricity and tobacco failed to compensate for a 10 percent slump in value-added tax receipts. Spending rose 12 percent as the state bailed out regional governments and interest payments surged 32 percent.
  • Rajoy Calls on EU to Deliver Debt Purchases as Spain Yields Rise. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said euro-zone countries must urgently implement decisions including government bond purchases agreed to in June as the country can’t finance its deficit under current conditions. The premier said he will announce additional measures this month to control the country’s budget shortfall. Spanish regional leaders must cut more spending as tax revenue slumps amid the country’s second recession since 2009, he said today in a speech in Navacerrada near Madrid. “It’s time to go from words to deeds,” Rajoy said. “Europe must comply as quickly as possible with the agreements its leaders reached in Brussels. The European project is at stake.” Rajoy is facing renewed pressure from bond investors after the European Central Bank took no action to lower yields at its July 5 meeting. Bond yields tumbled on July 2 after European leaders agreed to allow euro-area bailout funds to buy the debt of governments such as Spain and Italy. The additional yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10- year bonds rather than benchmark German bunds rose to 563 basis points yesterday from 486 basis points on July 2. Spain’s 10-year yield rose 62 basis points in the week that ended yesterday, July 6, the most since the five days through June 15, to 6.95 percent. It reached 7.04 percent yesterday, the highest since June 20.
  • Belgium Seeks Extra 78 Million Euros for Budget, La Libre Says. Belgium’s federal government must find an extra 78 million euros ($96 million) for this year’s budget, La Libre reported, citing an interview with Budget Minister Olivier Chastel. Belgium’s budget deficit is at 2.9 percent of gross domestic product, instead of the planned 2.8 percent, Chastel said. Any new spending must be compensated by savings, he said, according to the newspaper.
  • UBS, Credit Suisse Questioned by Finma Over Libor, Sonntag Says. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, known as Finma, contacted UBS AG (UBSN) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) regarding investigations into how the Libor interest rate was set, Der Sonntag reported. Finma sent both banks detailed questions about the London interbank offered rate, the newspaper said, citing people close to the matter. Regulators in the U.S., Europe and Asia are investigating whether banks that help set key rates for $360 trillion of securities were involved in collusion. Barclays Plc was fined $451 million in the U.K. and U.S. on June 27 for submitting false Libor rates. “We are taking the investigations seriously and are fully cooperating with the authorities,” Tatiana Togni, a spokeswoman for UBS AG, said told Bloomberg News by telephone. Credit Suisse spokesman Marc Dosch, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. Tobias Lux, a spokesman for Finma, said the regulator is “following the Libor investigations closely and is in close contact with the banks concerned.”
  • Metro Sees Small Increase in German Consumption, Bild Reports. Metro AG (MEO) Chief Executive Officer Olaf Koch forecast a “small increase at best” in German consumption this year, which will have a “significant impact” on the German retailer’s business, Bild am Sonntag reported today, citing an interview.
  • Norway Banks Under Pressure as Asset-Bubble Risks Swell. Norway’s Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen is putting pressure on the country’s banks to rein in mortgage lending to over-indebted households as the government grapples with the growing threat of a property bubble. Banks have “an obligation to say to people I think that by taking a loan this size you might get water over your head,” Johnsen said in an interview in Oslo. “Norwegian households have never had such a high proportion of debt compared to their net income, so that requires a keen eye and some concern.”
  • China Must Prevent Rebound in Property Prices, Wen Says. China must “unswervingly” continue its property controls and prevent prices from rebounding, Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday, after the central bank cut interest rates and triggered a surge in property stocks. Local governments that introduced or covered up a loosening of curbs on residential real-estate must be stopped, Wen said during a visit to Changzhou city in eastern Jiangsu province, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Restricting speculative demand and investment in property must be made a long-term policy, he said. Wen’s comments underscore the government’s determination to maintain restrictions on housing purchases. “We must unswervingly continue to implement all manner of controls in the property market to allow prices to return to reasonable levels,” Wen was quoted as saying when he met residents and local government officials in charge of affordable housing. “We cannot allow prices to rebound, or all our efforts will come to naught,” he said. Market expectations about property prices are changing and citizens are worried prices will rise again, he said. Signals in the market are “chaotic” and misleading and speculative information must be stopped, Wen said, according to Xinhua. Property controls are still in a “critical period” and the task remains “arduous,” Wen said yesterday. The government must “promote the study and implementation of changes to the property-tax mechanism, and to speed up the establishment of a comprehensive long-term mechanism and policy framework for controlling the property market,” Xinhua cited Wen as saying.
  • China’s Stock Futures Fall on Concerns About Economy, Property. Chinese stock-index futures fell after Premier Wen Jiabao said he won’t relax on property controls even as China’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure. Futures on the CSI 300 Index expiring in August, the most active contract, slid 0.5 percent to 2,468.80 as of 9:22 a.m. local time.
  • Chinese Firm to Build Power Plant in Central Iran, Times Reports. A Chinese company has invested some $500 million for the construction of a coal-fired power plant in central Iran, Tehran Times reported, citing Iranian Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Behzad. Behzad, who didn’t name the company, said the power plant will be located in the city of Tabas in Yazd Province and will be able to generate 650 megawatts of electricity. The project requires a total of 7 trillion rials ($570 million) and is planned to start operating within six years, Behzad said, according to the newspaper.
  • Night of Frenzied Buying Portends Slowing China Car Sales. Major Chinese cities are increasingly resorting to quotas to curb vehicle emissions and ease traffic congestion. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411) predicts that will slow auto sales, which could threaten carmakers such as General Motors Co. (GM) and Volkswagen AG (VOW) that depend on growth in the world’s largest vehicle market to counter declining demand in Europe.
  • Hong Kong May Revise Growth Forecast on Global Recovery Concerns. Hong Kong and Vietnam signaled growth may fall short of government forecasts this year as Asian policy makers stepped up efforts to protect their economies and currency markets from the worsening global outlook. Hong Kong may revise its 2012 economic forecast next month, Financial Secretary John Tsang said on July 7. In Vietnam, Deputy Prime Minister Vu Van Ninh said the country may miss its growth target and the central bank told lenders to cut borrowing costs on existing loans to help businesses. The Philippines unveiled plans to contain currency gains that may hurt exports.
  • Iran Seeks to Bypass Oil Curbs Using Local Fuel Exporters. An association of Iranian oil-product exporters will help the government bypass European Union sanctions and ship as much as 500,000 barrels a day, state-run Mehr news agency reported.
  • Thousands Protest Alleged Fraud in Mexico Presidential Election. Tens of thousands of Mexicans marched in the capital yesterday to protest alleged fraud and vote-buying in the country’s July 1 presidential election. Beating drums and waving flags, the protesters chanted “Out Pena,” in reference to Enrique Pena Nieto, whose victory restored the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, to power after a 12-year hiatus.
  • Egypt’s Mursi Defies Military Over Parliament. Egypt’s newly elected President Mohamed Mursi issued a decree to reinstate the parliament, reversing a move by the former ruling military council and challenging the nation’s highest court. The decree also calls for an early parliamentary election to be held within 60 days of the approval of a new constitution in a public referendum, the official Middle East News Agency reported yesterday. The charter has yet to be drafted. “The decision will raise tension in the political arena, especially between the Supreme Council of Armed Forces and the Muslim Brotherhood,” Nabil Abdel-Fattah, political analyst at the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said by phone. “By reinstating parliament, the president is challenging the rule of law and the judiciary.
  • Banks’ Living Wills Don’t Defuse Systemic Risk. The living wills were prepared in compliance with the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and are a major step forward in terms of revealing how global megabanks are structured. Yet they are shockingly incomplete and flawed in one crucial aspect: They neglect to explain how cross- border assets and liabilities would be handled in different legal jurisdictions.
  • VIX Falls to Cheapest Since '08 Before Earnings Reports: Options. The biggest June rally in U.S. stocks since 1999 has pushed options prices to the lowest level before any earnings season in almost four years even as analysts predict profits will fall. The VIX has lost 36% since its 2012 peak last month. It slipped 6.8% below the S&P 500's 20-day historical volatility, a measure of actual swings on July 6, Bloomberg data show. That's the cheapest contracts have been one trading day before Alcoa Inc. reports profit since October 2008.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Tighter Control for Euro Banks. Officials Move Toward Creating Agency With Power to Police Bloc's Big Institutions. Senior euro-zone finance officials, moving ahead on a plan to create a single overarching bank supervisor for all the countries in the 17-nation currency bloc, are settling on a framework that would create a new agency reporting to the European Central Bank to police the largest banks in the currency union, people involved in the discussions said.
  • New Jolt Looms for Investors: Earnings. Investors already fretting about the health of the world's biggest economies now face another worry: disappointing earnings. Companies begin reporting second-quarter earnings this week, starting with Alcoa Inc. on Monday. Already, 42 companies—including Ford Motor Co. and Texas Instruments Inc.—have warned investors that profits will be lower than initially expected, in large part because of slowing demand from customers around the world, particularly in Europe. Analysts say the darkening outlook is only partly baked into current share prices.
  • Retailers See Gay Population as Next Audience to Court. They are turning their attention to gays and lesbians, a group that wields substantial buying power but isn't fully integrated into mainstream advertising. Similar to other moves to attract different minority groups, the push comes with risks, as it could threaten the retailers' relationships with some of their longtime shoppers.
  • BofA(BAC) Linked to Drug Probe. FBI Says Mexican Cartel Funneled Money Through Bank to Horse-Racing Firm. A Mexican cocaine-trafficking cartel used accounts at Bank of America Corp. to hide money and invest illegal drug-trade proceeds in U.S. racehorses, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said. The alleged ties between the violent drug gang known as Los Zetas and the second-largest U.S. bank by assets were described in a 35-page affidavit filed in federal court in Texas last month. According to an FBI agent, a horse-buying and training business created to launder drug money had accounts at the Charlotte, N.C., bank.
  • America Already Is Europe. In spending, debt and progressivity of taxes, the U.S. is as much a social-welfare state as Spain. In 1938—the year my organization, the American Enterprise Institute, was founded—total government spending at all levels was about 15% of GDP. By 2010 it was 36%. The political right can crow all it wants about how America is a "conservative country," unlike, say, Spain—a country governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers Party for most of the past 30 years. But at 36%, U.S. government spending relative to GDP is very close to Spain's. And our debt-to-GDP ratio is 103%; Spain's is 68%. At first blush, these facts seem astounding. After all, Spanish political attitudes differ dramatically from our own. How can we be slouching down the same debt-potholed, social-democratic road as Spain? There are three explanations, all of which point to a worrying future for America.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

  • Japan Machinery Orders Drop 14.8%. Japan's core machinery orders tumbled in May in a sign that lingering worries about Europe's debt crisis, a slowing Chinese economy and weak economic data from the United States are hindering the country's recovery from last year's devastating earthquake. Core machinery orders, which help to gauge the strength of capital spending, fell 14.8 percent in May, much more than the median forecast for a 3.3 percent decrease in a Reuters poll, as both manufacturers and service sector companies cut orders. Japan's current account surplus also slumped by 62.6 percent in May from the same period a year earlier, faster than the median estimate for a 14.5 percent annual decline, as rising energy imports weighed on Japan's trade balance.The weaker-than-expected data suggests that Japan's growth could lose momentum as companies scale back investment due to a weak global economy.
  • China June Inflation Cools to 2.2% From Year Ago.
  • Global Uncertainty to Weigh on US Growth: Fed Official. Slow U.S. economic growth will probably continue for quite some time as firms postpone hiring and investment in the face of an uncertain global economy, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a dovish policymaker at the U.S. central bank, warned about the weak recovery in the U.S. labor market and the significant number of Americans who remain unemployed more than three years after the recession.
  • The tax man cometh to police you on health care. The Supreme Court's decision to uphold most of President Barack Obama's health care law will come home to roost for most taxpayers in about 2½ years, when they'll have to start providing proof on their tax returns that they have health insurance. That scenario puts the Internal Revenue Service at the center of the debate, renewing questions about whether the agency is capable of policing the health care decisions of millions of people in the United States while also collecting the taxes needed to run the federal government.

Wall Street All-Stars:

CNN:

Orlando Sentinel:

Reuters:
  • Floodgates on U.S. derivative reforms set to open. The U.S. swaps regulator is set to finalize this week a critical reform that will trigger banks and traders having to comply with costly new derivatives rules. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will vote on Tuesday on a definition of a "swap," which will start a countdown on compliance dates for big swaps players to start registering with regulators and reporting their trades.
Financial Times:
  • Spain bows to ‘bad bank’ idea. Spain is ready to create a single “bad bank” to house the distressed assets of its teetering financial sector, as it prepares to finalise terms of an EU bailout that is dividing the eurozone and spooking markets.
  • China Said to Plan to Retaliate if EU Investigates Subsidies. An EU investigation into govt subsidies to Huawei and ZTE Corp would be met with Chinese investigations into European subsidies for agriculture, autos, renewable energy and telecom cos., Chinese officials said.
  • Detecting good and bad hedge fund managers.
The Telegraph:

Corriere della Sera:

  • Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said Italy needs to insist in spending cuts and needs to boost investments to foster economic growth, in an interview today. Italy's gross domestic product will probably fall 2% this year, with higher government spreads cutting growth for about .5%, he said.

Le Monde:

  • United Nations Efforts in Syria Failing, Annan Tells Le Monde. International efforts to find a political solution to the violence in Syria are failing, United Nations special envoy Kofi Annan told French newspaper Le Monde. “Evidently, we haven’t succeeded,” Annan, who also represents the Arab League, said in an interview with Le Monde published today.

Expansion:

  • Spain is preparing more spending controls for ministries as it bids to show its reining in its budget deficit.
El Pais:
  • Banks are stalling on making loans to some Spanish regions as they wait to see what form government financial aid for them may take.

The Border Mail:

  • Home Owners Facing Loan Repayment Disaster. MANY people who bought houses on Melbourne's fringes in recent years could be facing financial ruin after a slump in prices has left them owing more to the bank than their homes are worth, experts have warned.
China Daily:
  • China doesn't need a new stimulus like the 4t yuan package after the 2008 financial crisis to counter the global economic slowdown, former People's Bank of China adviser Li Daokui wrote in a commentary.
Global Times:
  • Chinese Government Suffers Credibility Crisis. Several recent social issues, such as protests in Shifang and the shopping mall fire in Jixian county, Tianjin, have showed that official accounts of the disasters were too weak when facing fierce Internet inquires. The crisis of credibility of the government has repeatedly kept issues from being wrapped up normally, leading to confused public opinion. Despite the efforts that governments at different levels have made to improve their credibility, in specific cases, the public has perceived the opposite. When a local government mishandles a public affair, an apology is often absent in the aftermath of the emergency, dragging the whole official system down.
Press TV:
  • Iran to Close Hormuz Strait if Threatened: Commander. The chairman of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff has reiterated that the Islamic Republic does have the plan to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz but would only execute it if the nation’s security is threatened.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (TWI), (WWW), (NFLX), (TIF) and (APC).
  • Made negative comments on (FFIV), (PLCM), (EMC), (IBM), (STX), (WDC), (ELX) and (QLGC).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 172.0 +5.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 139.0 +3.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (WDFC)/.61
  • (PSMT)/.59
  • (AA)/.06
Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for May is estimated to rise to $8.0B versus $6.515B in April.

Upcoming Splits

  • (UA) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Fed's Williams speaking, final EU summit document; MOU on Spain bank aid, EU Finance Ministers Meeting, details of EU fiscal pact, China CPI/PPI and the German 10Y Bond Auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, July 08, 2012

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM
LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, more shorting, profit taking, Obamacare/US "fiscal cliff" concerns and earnings worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, July 06, 2012

Market Week in Review


S&P 500 1,354.68 +1.93%*

Photobucket

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*


Indices

  • S&P 500 1,354.68 +1.93%
  • DJIA 12,772.40 +1.35%
  • NASDAQ 2,937.33 +3.08%
  • Russell 2000 807.14 +4.03%
  • Value Line Geometric(broad market) 346.67 +3.29%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 634.40 +2.65%
  • Russell 1000 Value 665.98 +1.52%
  • Morgan Stanley Consumer 795.93 +2.03%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 914.57 +2.22%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 630.25 +1.99%
  • Transports 5,198.50 +2.63%
  • Utilities 478.43 +.10%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.05 -1.40%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.16 +4.35%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,013.70 +2.01%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 799.34 +.57%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias 539.34 unch.
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 147,164 +1.11%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 208 +436
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.0 +26.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 112,833 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,432,162 n/a
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +19.78%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.68 +7.01%
  • ISE Sentiment 109.0 -14.17%
  • NYSE Arms 2.06 +77.59%
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.10 -13.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 66.01 -3.45%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.63 +.84%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,202.93 +1.41%
  • Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.538 Trillion unch.
  • AAII % Bulls 32.64 +13.85%
  • AAII % Bears 33.33 -24.88%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 286.92 +5.56%
  • Crude Oil 84.45 +7.63%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 271.60 +9.41%
  • Natural Gas 2.78 +.76%
  • Heating Oil 270.99 +5.74%
  • Gold 1,578.90 +1.71%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 197.52 +.88%
  • Copper 340.95 +1.91%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.67 USD/Ton -.48%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 135.10 USD/Ton +.22%
  • Lumber 287.90 +7.38%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,640.18 +5.33%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.90% +70 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1894 +7.92%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 111.18 +.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.50 -2.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of no change, 32.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/1
  • US Dollar Index 83.38 +2.18%
  • Yield Curve 128.0 -6 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% -9 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.848 Trillion +.07%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.04 -4.74%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 198.0 -10.63%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 283.57 +.39%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 289.84 -1.55%
  • Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.0 -1.81%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 424.95 -2.3%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 475.0 -15 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08% -2 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.75 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.0 -2.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 112.50 -1.41%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 282.86 +8.27%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 279.16 -2.17%
  • CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 167.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.239 Trillion +.07%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 972.50 -3.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 385,800 -1,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.62% -4 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 816.70 -6.67%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.5 -1.4 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.2% -10 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.36/gallon +.01/gallon
  • U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 7.0% above normal
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,157 +15.24%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 253,497 +2.99%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +4.18%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.52%
Leading Sectors
  • Homebuilders +7.51%
  • Disk Drives +7.16%
  • Steel +6.38%
  • Papers +4.91%
  • Retail +4.66%
Lagging Sectors
  • Networking +1.28%
  • I-Banks +1.11%
  • Utilities +.10%
  • Computer Services -2.27%
  • HMOs -3.91%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)
  • LNCR, AYI, OSUR, EHTH, AMLN, MODL, AZZ, TROX, ELLI, UNF and STZ
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)
  • WLP, LQDT and HSH
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Weak US Jobs Report, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Tech Sector Weakness, Earnings Concerns


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.75 +1.43%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +18.82%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +23.60%
  • NYSE Arms 2.15 +21.47%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 108.62 +3.96%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 282.92 +5.41%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 283.57 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.09 +4.47%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.0 +10.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 127.0 -3 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.10/Metric Tonne +.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.50 -2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -3 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech, medical and biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish as the S&P 500 trades lower on surging eurozone debt angst, a plunging euro currency, tech sector weakness, Obamacare/US fiscal cliff worries, weak US economic data, earnings concerns and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, REIT, Education and Airline shares are flat-to-slightly higher on the day. Oil is falling -3.2%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is -1.1%, Lumber is gaining +1.4% and Gold is down -1.4%. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Steel, Software, Computer, Semi, Networking, Computer Service, Defense, Internet, Disk Drive and Construction shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.75%. Cyclicals are underperforming. Tech shares are especially heavy. Copper is down -2.3%. The 10Y Yld is falling -5 bps to 1.55%. The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is falling to -62.5, which is right near the lowest since late-Aug. of last year. The Citi Latin America Economic Surprise Index is picking up downside steam, falling another -.7 point today to -17.9, which is near the weakest since mid-Oct. of last year. Major Asian indices were mostly lower overnight, led down by a -.92% loss in South Korea. Major European indices are falling around -1.75%, led lower by a -3.1% decline in Spain(-5.2% in 5 days and down -21.4% ytd). The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is falling -2.3%. Brazil is falling -1.75% today. The Germany sovereign cds is rising +1.6% to 99.05 bps, the France sovereign cds is gaining +.65% to 184.97 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +3.95% to 515.16 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is jumping +4.7% to 578.20 bps(+8.1% in 5 days), the Portugal sovereign cds is up +4.95% to 850.28 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is up +3.1% to 221.35 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is gaining +3.8% to 153.08 bps. The The Spain 10y Yld is rising +2.6% to 6.95%(+9.8% in 5 days) and the Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is rising +2.2% to 469.94 bps(+10.6% in 5 days). Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is gaining +4.1% to 171.79 bps. US weekly retail sales have decelerated to a sluggish rate at +2.2%, which is the slowest since the week of April 5th of last year. US Trucking Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to late-Aug. levels. Lumber is -4.0% since its March 1st high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -50.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -35.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -25.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +135.0% ytd. Oil tanker rates are plunging this week, with the benchmark Middle East-to-US voyage falling -16.7% to 25.0 industry-standard worldscale points, which is the lowest since Oct. 2009. The CRB Commodities Index is now technically in a bear market, having declined -22.1% since May 2nd of last year. Spanish and Italian yields are back in the danger zone. The euro currency continues to trade very poorly and is testing its June 1st low. I expect the currency to break meaningfully below this level over the coming weeks and head substantially lower over the intermediate-term. Oil(turned away at downward-sloping 50-day moving average) and Copper(turned away at downward-sloping 200-day moving average) also continue to trade poorly, despite recent bounces. As well, the 10Y continues to trade too well, which remains a red flag. I still believe the level of complacency among US investors regarding the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe is fairly high. Key gauges of credit angst are breaking out technically again. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index is at -74.40 points, which is the lowest since mid-Sept. of last year. Massive tax hikes and spending cuts are still yet to hit in several key eurozone countries that are already in recession. A lack of competitiveness remains unaddressed. Moreover, the “solutions” for the European debt crisis I still hear being bandied about are only bigger kick-the-cans that if implemented will eventually lead to an even bigger catastrophe as Germany is engulfed, in my opinion. The European debt crisis is also really beginning to bite emerging market economies now, which will further pressure exports from the region and further raise the odds of more sovereign/bank downgrades. While today’s labor report was disappointing, it was probably not bad enough to prompt QE3. The bar for additional QE is likely higher than the Fed is letting on. I continue to believe QE was a huge mistake as it played a large role in the current global slowdown by helping to jack up commodity prices, thus creating significant inflation problems in key emerging market economies. Officials in these economies slammed on the brakes, which cut demand for goods and services from the Eurozone right when they needed that demand the most. Uncertainty surrounding the effects on business of Obamacare, the "US fiscal cliff " and election outcome uncertainty will likely become more and more of a focus for investors as the year progresses. Finally, the upcoming earnings season could prove more challenging than usual for big multi-nationals given US dollar strength and the precipitous declines in some key parts of the global economy during the quarter. Stocks that miss earnings estimates are being severely punished despite the obvious headwinds. I still believe there is too much uncertainty on the horizon to conclude a durable stock market low is in place. For this year's equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see a resumption in European credit gauge improvement, a subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, global central bank stimulus hopes, bargain-hunting and lower energy prices.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Spain’s Bonds Drop as German Note Yield Falls Below Zero. Spanish bonds slumped, pushing 10- year yields above 7 percent for only the fifth day since the euro was created, amid concern politicians and central banks aren’t doing enough to prevent the region’s woes from deepening. German two-year notes rose, sending yields to less than zero, as investors sought the highest-rated securities after the European Central Bank refrained from announcing extra measures to stem the crisis yesterday. Austrian, Dutch, Belgian and French note yields fell to records on demand for greater returns than those from German securities. A negative rate means investors who hold the debt to maturity will receive less than they paid to buy them. “There are still a lot of questions that remain unanswered about the debt crisis, and we are cautious about peripheral bonds,” said John Stopford, head of fixed income at Investec Asset Management in London, which oversees $98 billion. “The market was disappointed that the ECB didn’t do more. Investors are also nervous about the macro picture. The risk is that they will continue to reduce exposure to peripheral bonds.” Spain’s 10-year yield rose 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 6.95 percent at 4:40 p.m. London time, after climbing to 7.04 percent, the highest since June 20. The 5.85 percent bond due in January 2022 fell 1.105, or 11.05 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,230) face amount, to 92.485. The yield jumped 62 basis points this week, the most since the five days through June 15.
  • Monti Cabinet Backs Spending-Cut Package to Replace Tax Increase. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti replaced a looming sales-tax increase with a package of spending cuts, seeking to counter rising anger over the government’s demand for revenue. Monti’s Cabinet approved 26 billion euros ($32 billion) of spending cuts over the next three years to delay for at least a year an increase in the value-added tax rate to 23 from 21, the prime minister’s office said in an e-mailed statement after a seven-hour meeting in Rome that ended at 1 a.m. “This is the typical ’Italian-style’ reform that offloads the biggest chunk of the planned cuts onto the next government,” said Alberto Mingardi, head of the pro-free market Bruno Leoni research center in Turin. “The VAT increase is put back to July next year when this government won’t be in power anymore”
  • Greek Six-Month Public Revenue Drops 1.5%, Kathimerini Says. Greece’s public revenue in the first six months of the year was about 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) less than its budget target for the period after it dropped 1.5 percent compared with the year earlier, Kathimerini reported, without saying how it got the information. Net revenue increased 1 percent in June compared with the same month in 2011, while total revenue for the month, which is before tax refunds, declined 0.5 percent from June 2011, the Athens-based newspaper said.
  • Lagarde Says IMF to Cut Growth Outlook as Global Economy Weakens. The International Monetary Fund will reduce its estimate for global growth this year on weakness in investment, jobs and manufacturing in Europe, the U.S., Brazil, India and China, Managing Director Christine Lagarde said. “The global growth outlook will be somewhat less than we anticipated just three months ago,” Lagarde said in a speech in Tokyo today. “And even that lower projection will depend on the right policy actions being taken.” The new outlook will be announced in 10 days, after an April estimate of 3.5 percent, she said.
  • Spain Bank Aid To Be Channeled Through Government, EU Aide Says. Europe won’t obtain the powers to recapitalize banks directly in time for the injection of as much as 100 billion euros ($123 billion) into Spain’s financial system by mid-2013, a European official said. Spain’s bank-aid program, to be endorsed by European finance ministers next week, will channel the money via a Spanish state agency, the official told reporters in Brussels today on condition of anonymity. No formal decisions will come at the July 9 meeting, which will also offer a first glimpse of Greece’s plea for a relaxation of its bailout terms and take up Cyprus’s call for banking aid, the official said.
  • JPMorgan(JPM), Goldman(GS) Shut Europe Money Funds After ECB Cut. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and BlackRock Inc. (BLK) closed European money market funds to new investments after the European Central Bank lowered deposit rates to zero. JPMorgan, the world’s biggest provider of money-market funds, won’t accept new cash in five euro-denominated money- market and liquidity funds because the rate cut may result in losses for investors, the company said in a notice to shareholders. Goldman Sachs won’t accept new money in its GS Euro Government Liquid Reserves Fund, and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is restricting deposits in two European funds.
  • U.S. Payroll Growth Trails Forecasts as Labor-Market Outlook Dims: Economy. American employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in June and the jobless rate stayed at 8.2 percent as the economic outlook dimmed. The 80,000 gain in employment followed a 77,000 increase in May, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 100,000 rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Growth in private payrolls was the weakest in 10 months. Stocks fell on concern hiring has shifted into a lower gear, restricting consumer spending and leaving the economy more vulnerable to a global slowdown. The figures underscore concern among some Federal Reserve policy makers that growth isn’t fast enough to lower unemployment stuck above 8 percent since February 2009. “The job market is soft,” said David Resler, chief economic adviser at Nomura Securities International Inc., who correctly forecast the payrolls gain. “I’d characterize our reaction as much the same way the Fed will react -- not surprised but disappointed. It’s just not the kind of growth we need to see at this stage in the business cycle.” Private payrolls increased 84,000 in June after a revised gain of 105,000 that was larger than initially reported. They were projected to advance by 106,000 in June, the survey showed. The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- increased to 14.9 percent from 14.8 percent. Joblessness has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest such stretch since monthly records began in 1948. Employment at service providers increased 67,000 in June after a 98,000 gain, today’s report showed. Construction companies added 2,000 workers, while retailers cut 5,400 jobs. Uncertainty about the U.S. government’s fiscal outlook may still be hampering hiring plans. Congress has yet to resolve the so-called fiscal cliff, which represents more than $600 billion in higher taxes and reductions in defense and other government programs in 2013 that will take place without action. In a bright spot for workers, average hourly earnings rose to $23.50 from $23.44 in the prior month, today’s report showed. The average work week climbed six minutes to 34.5 hours. The number of temporary workers increased 25,200 in June after an 18,600 rise.
  • Commodities Fall Most in Two Weeks on U.S., Europe Economic Woes. Commodities fell the most in two weeks as signs of a faltering U.S. economy and escalating debt woes in Europe signaled less demand for energy and metals. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index (MXWD) of 24 raw materials declined 2.2 percent to 606.48 at 11:52 a.m. in New York. A close at that level would mark the biggest decline since June 21. Crude oil and gold dropped the most in a week, and industrial metals including lead, aluminum and copper slumped. Through yesterday, the GSCI index dropped 3.8 percent this year, led by declines in cotton, coffee and oil.
  • Credit Swaps in U.S. Climb as Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast. A gauge of U.S. corporate debt risk rose for a second day after U.S. employment increased less than forecast, fueling concerns that labor-market growth is cooling. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark used to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased 2.8 basis points to a mid-price of 111.7 basis points at 9:12 a.m. in New York, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg.
MarketWatch:
CNBC.com:
  • Exclusive: Germany pushes Libor probe of Deutsche Bank(DB) - sources. German markets regulator BaFin is conducting a special probe of Deutsche Bank as part of a wider investigation into possible manipulation of the London Inter Bank Offered Rate (Libor), two people familiar with the matter said on Friday. The German regulator declined to comment specifically on whether it was probing Deutsche Bank, but said it was in looking into suspected manipulation of Libor rates by banks. "We are making use of our entire spectrum of regulatory instruments, so far as this is necessary," a spokesman said. Deutsche Bank shares extended losses after the news and traded 4.3 percent lower at 1523 GMT.
  • Berkshire(BRK/A) Buys GM(GM) Before Plunge. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) acquired its largest stake in General Motors Co. (GM) before the automaker slumped 16 percent, as the billionaire chairman hands more responsibility to deputy stock pickers. Berkshire accumulated about 8.47 million shares of GM through Feb. 3 at an average price of $24.35, according to National Association of Insurance Commissioners data compiled by Bloomberg. The automaker closed at $20.54 yesterday in New York. Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s full stake was reported in a separate regulatory filing in May that didn’t disclose the purchase price or date.
  • Banks' Debt Lifeline for Spain Starts to Fray. Domestic banks that have backed Spain's debt auctions with heavy buying could be reaching a limit for absorbing sovereign bonds, say financial analysts and two market makers, undermining the country's efforts to stave off a full-blown bailout.
  • Is Italy Living on Borrowed Time and Money? Italy is back in the spotlight as the focus for market concerns once again, with bond yields higher than Ireland’s and increasing concern about the political situation in the euro zone’s third-largest economy.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Washington Post:

  • Are Auto Loans the Next Subprime Market to Worry About? Across the country, banks and other lenders are still being stingy in providing credit to ordinary consumers. Only the most financially stable of Americans can secure mortgages. Small businesses are having trouble getting loans. Credit card access is restricted. But there’s one notable exception, an area where lending has been surging: Autos. Millions of Americans have found that it’s becoming surprisingly easy to borrow money to buy a car. New bank loans for autos totaled $47.5 billion in the first quarter of 2012, higher than at any point in the past seven years, according to Equifax. Interest rates are getting cheaper by the month. And even Americans with relatively poor finances can get auto loans: The average person financing a new car purchase had a credit score of 760, down six points from the previous quarter, according to new data from Experian. For a used car, the average credit score was down to 659. “The spigots are being opened,” said Peter McNally, an analyst at Moody’s. “The finance companies are really stepping in to fill a need.”
Platts Oil:

Rasmussen Reports:

  • 31% Give Obama Positive Marks on Handling Economic Issues. The economy has been the most important issue to voters for years, but ratings for the president’s performance in that area are at their lowest level since last November. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows just 31% of Likely Voters believe President Obama is doing a good or excellent job handling economic issues, including 12% who say he is doing an excellent job. Forty-eight percent (48%) believe Obama is doing a poor job in this area.

Reuters:

  • EURO DEBT SUPPLY-Little respite seen for Italy's funding costs. Italy is unlikely to have difficulty raising funds next week but can't expect much of a respite from high borrowing costs given the swift fading of euphoria over euro zone leaders' efforts to stem the bloc's debt crisis. Italian and Spanish bond yields have marched higher again this week, closing in on levels seen before officials agreed last Friday to help these two major economies by allowing the bloc's bailout funds to buy bonds from the market and to directly recapitalise Spain's ailing banks. Scant detail on how the plans will be implemented and opposition from Finland have dampened initial bullishness and investors are again demanding at least four times more in returns to hold 10-year Italian and Spanish bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds.
  • Copper Extends Losses After Weak U.S. Job Data. Copper extended losses on Friday under the weight of a stronger dollar after data from the United States showed the job market in the world's biggest economy was not recovering quickly enough, which added to worries about a severe slowdown in China. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange, untraded at the close, was last bid at $7,530 per tonne versus $7,695 at Thursday's close. It fell 2 percent this week.
  • ECB's Coeure dashes bond buying expectations. European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure on Friday dashed the prospect of the ECB buying government bonds to calm financial markets, saying it was up to the euro zone's ESM rescue fund to do so if needed. He was speaking as Spanish government bond yields returned to levels seen before a European Union summit last week which provided brief relief to Spain. "The governments set up a mechanism which is the European Stability Mechanism and last week they confirmed that the ESM could intervene on the secondary market," Coeure told a financial conference in Aix-en-Provence, southern France. "It would be a paradox if the central bank intervened in the place of the governments," he added.
  • Canada's Ivey PMI index unexpectedly falls in June. The pace of purchasing activity in the Canadian economy fell to its lowest level in almost a year in June, according to Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data released on Friday. The data showed the seasonally adjusted index fell to 49.0 in June from 60.5 in May. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 55.8. The index was last below the 50 level in July 2011, when it was 46.8.
  • Peugeot sales drop 13 pct on European slump. Sales at struggling PSA Peugeot Citroen slumped in the first half of the year, hit by "crisis" in its austerity-stricken core European markets and a misfiring tilt at upmarket rivals. The French car maker was forced to deny a press report it was seeking an emergency government loan as it posted a 15-percent drop in European sales versus the same period last year. Deliveries of cars and vans in Latin America slid 21 percent while it failed to match the pace of expansion in China of other western manufacturers.

Telegraph:

Cinco Dias:

  • Spain Domestic Tourism Bookings Down 30%. Bookings by Spaniards to take holidays in the country are down 30% from a year ago, citing Juan Molas, president of Spanish tourism group CEHAT. Tourism represents 11% of gdp. The sector employs 2.5 million people.

Mega TV:

  • Greece's main opposition Syriza party is against the country's state asset sales and will take legal action if the government moves ahead with the plans, Syriza lawmaker Dimitris Stratoulis said today. "We are against this and consider it the biggest economic and political scandal in the country after the signing of the bailouts," Stratoulis said, according to a video of his comments. Stratoulis said if Syriza becomes Greece's next government it will "even send to jail those who sell off the country's assets for peanuts" and that all state companies and infrastructure are of strategic importance to Greece.

ANA:

  • Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will announce a cut in sales tax for cafes, bars and restaurants and an increase in the threshold for paying income tax to 8,000 euros from 5,000 euros in his legislative program today, citing comments by Nikos Tsoukalis, parliamentary spokesman for the Democratic Left, one of the parties in the coalition government.