Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.86%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurants +.89% 2) Biotech -.03% 3) Homebuilders -.05%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SBGI, ASH, IOC, BZH and RATE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RAD 2) ACAD 3) MDVN 4) BKS 5) AGQ
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CSX 2) JBHT 3) MCD 4) HLF 5) WAG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Italy’s bond rally threatened by political reality. As an Italian bond rally wraps up a sixth week, investors risk having their enthusiasm jolted by the country’s political gridlock. Italian bonds delivered returns of 3.4 percent since inconclusive elections on Feb 24-25 produced a hung parliament. Prime Minister Monti’s caretaker government has little scope to combat the longest recession in more than two decades and said this week its debt will reach 130.4 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than twice the euro-region limit. The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented bond-buying stimulus coupled with the European Central Bank’s renewed pledge to defend the euro have underpinned the gains even as Italy’s political stalemate and recession deepen. 

• Merkel’s One-Time Ally Steinbrueck Forges Platform to Unseat Her. German opposition candidate Peer Steinbrueck’s drive to become chancellor is going into reverse. Steinbrueck’s Social Democratic Party gathers this weekend in the Bavarian town of Augsburg as the gap with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc widens. The SPD’s answer is a platform that appeals to core Socialist values through reining in banks, taxing the rich and reducing social inequality it says has grown under Merkel. Delegates will vote on the platform on April 14.

• N Korea May Be Able to Make Nuclear Missiles, U.S. Says. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has reported that North Korea now has some nuclear weapons small enough to be delivered by its ballistic missiles. The DIA cautioned in a classified report last month that it has only “moderate confidence” in that finding, which also said that the reliability of North Korea’s missiles “will be low.” 

• China Rebound at Risk as Xi Curbs Officials’ Spending. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s campaign to rein in lavish spending by officials and state-owned companies is proving so effective that it risks helping end the nation’s economic rebound after one quarter. Xi’s efforts are restraining consumer spending and making it tougher for the new government to boost domestic demand as factory output slows. Large-restaurant and catering sales fell for the first time in more than three decades in the first two months of the year, while demand and prices for luxury items such as Moutai liquor and Longjing tea have slumped.

• China Customs Official Apologizes for Incorrect Data. A Chinese government spokesman said he gave incorrect and “groundless” investment data sourced from the Internet at a briefing this week, underscoring concern that official numbers may not be credible. Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman and head of the statistics department at the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs, said in a statement yesterday that he “expresses deep apologies” for citing unconfirmed figures from online sources he didn’t identify. Zheng was referring to remarks he made at a customs administration press conference on April 10 where he also acknowledged concerns that China’s export data may be overstated.

• Bird Flu Causing Suffocation Shows Severe Spectrum of New Virus. Bird flu turned fatal for a 52- year-old Shanghai woman whose lungs became so damaged that she began to suffocate, causing her vital organs to rapidly shut down, doctors in China said.

• Kerry Said Ready to Ask China to Obey UN North Korea Sanctions. The U.S. will ask China to abide by United Nations sanctions against North Korea and shut off the flow of money that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction, a State Department official said. Secretary of State John Kerry, on his first trip to Asia as the top U.S. diplomat, is scheduled to meet with leaders in Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo as the region confronts threats of war by North Korea. Two U.S. officials briefed reporters accompanying Kerry on the condition of not being named. The U.S. wants to convince China, North Korea’s main ally, that it’s in China’s economic and political interests to reverse a long-standing practice of looking the other way regarding banned cross-border trade with its Communist neighbor, an administration official said. Kerry will also urge China to toughen its message to leaders in Pyongyang and will seek information about conversations between China and North Korea as well as what kind of leverage the new Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has on North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the State Department official said. There will be no quid pro quo in U.S.-China discussions and the U.S. won’t soften its criticism of China’s human-rights record and assertiveness over disputed areas in the South China Sea in exchange for greater cooperation on North Korea, the official said. 

• Japan, World Economy at Risk If Abenomics Fails. The Bank of Japan’s strategy to end almost two decades of stagnation through unprecedented monetary stimulus may set off a ticking time-bomb for financial markets if it’s not followed by extensive structural reforms. Such reforms, critical to the success of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic program — dubbed Abenomics — have historically proved difficult to implement. The combination of a debt load accounting for more than 200 percent of GDP and diminishing domestic demand for government bonds may sound the death knell for Japan’s economy, with or without Abe’s new economic policy. This would have global consequences. Click here to continue reading.

• Tepco Faces Decision to Dump Radioactive Water in Pacific. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501)’s discovery of leaks in water storage pits at the wrecked Fukushima atomic station raises the risk the utility will be forced to dump radioactive water in the Pacific Ocean.

• Infosys Plunges as Sales Forecast Lags. Infosys Ltd. (INFO), India’s second- largest software services exporter, fell in Mumbai trading as it forecast annual sales will rise slower than analysts estimated. Shares plunged 15 percent to 2,491.7 rupees as of 9:16 a.m. The company expects revenue to increase 6 percent to 10 percent in the year that started April 1, it said. Analysts estimated sales to grow 12.7 percent to 454.7 billion rupees, based on the average of 66 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Asian Stocks Fall From 20-Month High as Yen Strengthens. Asian stocks fell from the highest level in 20 months, paring the biggest weekly advance since September. Japan’s Topix Index (TPX) dropped for the first time in eight days as the yen strengthened against the dollar. Canon Inc. (7751), a Japanese camera maker that gets 80 percent of sales abroad, slid 2.3 percent. GS Engineering & Construction Corp. (006360) tumbled by the daily 15 percent limit in Seoul for a second day after reporting an unexpected loss.

• Bovespa Index Tumbles Most in the World on Brazil Growth Concern. The Bovespa index tumbled the most among the world’s major equity gauges as a report showing retail sales unexpectedly dropped in February rekindled concern that Brazil’s economic recovery will falter. Lojas Americanas SA led losses among retailers, sinking the most since August. Oil services provider Lupatech SA tumbled after missing a $6.79 million bond payment. OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, the crude oil producer controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, declined to a record low. The Bovespa fell 1.4 percent to 55,400.91 at the close of trading in Sao Paulo, the most in dollar terms among 94 major global stock measures tracked by Bloomberg. Fifty-four stocks dropped on the gauge while 14 advanced. The real dropped 0.1 percent to 1.9756 per dollar.

• IMF Trims U.S. Growth Outlook in Draft Report. U.S. gross domestic product will expand 1.7 percent this year compared with a previously forecast 2 percent advance, according to the draft report obtained by Bloomberg News. The draft, which was presented to the IMF board last week, may be subject to revisions before its scheduled April 16 release. The global economy will expand 3.4 percent this year, compared with 3.5 percent forecast in January, according to projections in the report.

• JPMorgan(JPM) Analysts Say Big Investment Banks Are ‘Uninvestable’. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets and the top investment bank by fees, is questioning the so-called universal bank model’s future. Top-tier investment banks are “uninvestable at this point with a risk of spinoff from universal banks,” JPMorgan analysts led by London-based Kian Abouhossein wrote in a research note today. They cited potential rule changes and curbs on capital and funding. Investors should avoid Goldman Sachs Group Inc., once the world’s most profitable securities firm, and Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, because of pressure on earnings and the unknown impact of new regulations, according to the report. Both firms rank among the biggest sales and trading rivals for New York-based JPMorgan, which isn’t mentioned in the report. The bank is scheduled to report first-quarter results tomorrow.

• Oil Outlook ‘Bearish’ on Demand Drop, U.S. Shale Boom. Crude prices will probably drop, at least in the first half, amid rising U.S. shale-oil production and slowing economic growth, according to analysts. “I’d stay moderately bearish from here,” Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup Inc., said at the Bloomberg Oil Forum in London today. “Everything looks pretty weak,” he said, citing downward revisions to global demand growth forecasts by the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Global crude production will be “robust” this year as output rises in the U.S., Iraq and Kazakhstan, while demand growth may slow in consuming nations including China, he said.

• Gold Heads for Third Weekly Drop on Outlook for Reduced Stimulus.

Wall Street Journal: 

• John Paulson to Start New Hedge Fund. John Paulson took flack for considering a move to Puerto Rico, one that would have cut his tax bill. Mr. Paulson dropped the idea of a move. But the hedge fund manager seems more determined to help his clients reduce their own tax bills. On Thursday, Mr. Paulson, who is trying to turn around his hedge-fund firm after a period of difficult trading, sent an invitation to clients and potential clients, announcing the launch of the Paulson Partners Premium L.P. Fund. The invitation said the fund is for investors “looking to mitigate income taxes.” 

• Yep, LinkedIn(LNKD) Acquires Newsreader Startup Pulse for $90 Million.

• New Drive for Tougher Testing of European Banks. Europe is embarking on a new attempt to pull its banks out of the molasses of its debt crisis, hoping an aggressive cleanup of toxic assets will get banks to lend again and kick-start its flailing economies. The push is being led by several key officials in Brussels and Frankfurt, who want to see a new round of much-tougher stress tests before the European Central Bank becomes the euro zone's main banking policeman next year, according to four European officials familiar the talks.

• Bank Earnings: J.P. Morgan(JPM) and Wells Fargo(WFC) Preview.

• Two Firms Amass Much of World's Copper Supply. Commodities Traders Pay to Divert Shipments From Other Warehouses; Manufacturers Worry About Access. Two major commodities-trading firms have amassed much of the world's copper supplies in their warehouses, partly by paying to divert shipments away from other storage hubs, traders and analysts say. This concentration of copper supplies has sparked concerns among industrial consumers of the metal. 

• Can We Afford Another Housing Boom? With prices rising, now is the time to prevent over-investment. With prices rising again, now is precisely the time to begin reducing the federal subsidies that encourage over-investment in housing. In some areas of the country Fan and Fred still back mortgages of more than $600,000, while the FHA backs loans of more than $700,000. Reform-minded lawmakers may not be able to stop Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke from dropping money from helicopters, but they can begin reducing the conforming loan limits at Fan, Fred and FHA to put some guardrails around Washington's reckless credit policies.

Fox News: 

• IRS tells agents it can snoop on emails without warrant, internal documents show. The Internal Revenue Service believes it doesn’t need permission to root through emails, texts or other forms of electronic correspondence, according to recently released internal agency documents. The documents, which were obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request by the American Civil Liberties Union, reveal that tax department agents have been operating under the assumption that they can bypass warrants. The ACLU claims this would in turn violate the Fourth Amendment. According to a 2009 IRS employee handbook, though, the tax agency said the Fourth Amendment does not protect emails because Internet users don’t “have a reasonable expectation of privacy in such communications.” A lawyer for the agency reiterated the policy in 2010. And the current online version of the IRS manual says that no warrant is required for emails that are stored by an Internet storage provider for more than 180 days.

CNBC:

• Eli Lilly(LLY) Plans to Cut 1,000 Jobs in 'Major Restructuring': Source. The pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly plans to lay off 1,000 of its U.S. sales representatives in a "major restructuring," a source familiar with the plan said. The layoffs constitute about a 30-percent reduction in the company's U.S. Bio-Medicines sales force, the source said.

• Shorts Getting Longer as Stock Market Bears Throw In the Towel.  Short interest as a percentage of total available shares reached a 12-month low of 3.6 percent as a profitable March ended, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The finding sends two potentially important messages: that investors are finally buying into the rally (a contrarian signal); and that a good portion of the recent move probably came from a short-squeeze in which those betting against the market had to cover their positions.

• Suckers! Tech Execs Selling Stock as Nasdaq Hits High. Insider selling at the biggest technology companies hit a record pace over the last six months even as investors snatched up shares, pushing the Nasdaq Composite Index to a 12-year high. More than 55 million shares were sold versus 1,780 shares bought for a sell-buy ratio of an eye-popping 31,109 to 1 at the 10 biggest tech companies, including Microsoft, Oracle and Qualcomm, according to Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter and market analyst for 49 years.

Zero Hedge:

• Who Goes Next: Portugal Or Slovenia - The Forensic Take.

• The True Chinese Credit Bubble: 240% Of GDP And Soaring. (graphs)

• Are Individuals The Property Of The Collective? (video)

• Still Think The Housing Recovery Is Sustainable? (graphs)

• There Is No Risk Left... Anywhere. (graph)

Business Insider:

• JCPenney(JCP) Is Bleeding So Much Cash It Hired Bankers To Raise $1 Billion. 

• Bitcoin Instantly Plunges 35% As Exchange Reopens. (graph)

• A 15-Year-Old Allegedly Helped Kill Live Babies At Philadelphia's Nightmare Abortion Clinic.

• CHART OF THE DAY: Facebook(FB) Dominates Social Logins — But Google(GOOG) Is Closing The Gap.

• More US Customers Are Returning The New BlackBerry Phone Than Keeping It, Analyst Report Says*.

New York Times:

• Herbalife(HLF) Ties to ‘Work From Home’ Promoters May Draw New Scrutiny. Entities that promote “work from home” opportunities could be a new source of scrutiny for Herbalife, the nutritional products company that has become the subject of a pitched battle on Wall Street. The Federal Trade Commission has received scores of complaints from people who paid money to operations with names like Income At Home and Online Business Systems, according to materials the agency released under the Freedom of Information Act. In many of the complaints, consumers who contacted such companies said they discovered at a later stage that they were being recruited to sell Herbalife products, an opportunity many did not wish to pursue.

Reuters:

• Chinese officials even more pessimistic on local debt than Fitch. Fitch Ratings' estimate of China's local government debt is vastly more pessimistic than other analyses, but recent statements from government officials suggest that even Fitch may be too optimistic. The agency, which downgraded the country's sovereign credit rating this week, puts China's overall sovereign debt at 74 percent of GDP by the end of 2012, of which 49 percent is central government and 25 percent is local. Recent data indicates that, after stabilizing in 2011, local debt surged again last year as policymakers launched a new wave of infrastructure spending to stabilize the world's No.2 economy amid its slowest growth in 13 years. Even Fitch's relatively pessimistic estimate may be too rosy. The head of China's National Audit Office (NAO), which published a detailed survey of local debt in 2011, recently estimated current local debt outstanding at 15 to 18 trillion yuan -- equal to 29 to 35 percent of GDP -- by the end of 2012. That's well ahead of Fitch's estimate of 12.85 trillion yuan and an increase from the NAO's previous estimate of 10.7 trillion yuan in local debt outstanding by end-2010. A former finance minister, Xiang Huaicheng, said at a forum last week that local debt may total as much 20 trillion yuan. Fitch's calculation of China's total non-financial debt is broadly in line with other analysts at 198 percent of GDP. The disagreement arises from the lack of clarity over how large swathes of Chinese debt should be classified. 

• Investors give just $1.4 bln to stock funds despite rally -Lipper. 

• U.S. Fed balance sheet grows again in latest week. The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet liabilities reached a fresh record size on an increase in the central bank's holdings of U.S. government debt, Fed data released on Thursday showed. The Fed's balance sheet liabilities, a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system, stood at $3.210 trillion on April 10, compared with $3.198 trillion on April 3.

Telegraph:

• EMU plot curdles as creditors seize Cyprus gold reserves.

• China's shadow banking boom rings alarm bells. Loan growth in China’s shadow banking system surged to near record levels in March, prompting fresh warnings that the country’s credit bubble is spinning out of control.  

• Debt spiral could push Portugal into new bail-out, admits EU-IMF. Portugal could face a second bail-out as the country, mired in recession and deeply divided over eurozone austerity measures, is caught in a debt spiral of soaring costs and borrowing to pay back EU-IMF loans. 

Bild:

• German Financial Advisers Call for Abolition EU500 Note. Reiner Holznagel, president of Germany Taxpayers Association, says move would make it harder to take money out of the country.

ChannelNewsAsia:

• Singapore's GDP contacts in Q1. Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of 2013, hurt by a sharp decline in manufacturing. Singapore: Advance estimates indicate that in the first quarter of 2013, the Singapore economy contracted by 0.6 per cent compared to the 1.5 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 1.4 per cent, down from the 3.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter noted the Trade and Industry Ministry. Market watchers had expected 1 per cent growth and point out worries in the manufacturing sector.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -4.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 90.5 -2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.53%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (JPM)/1.38

• (WFC)/.88

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Advance Retail Sales for March are estimated unch. versus a +1.1% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Less Autos for March are estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas for March are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.

• The Producer Price Index for March is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.7% gain in February.

• The PPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in February.

9:55 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 78.5 versus 78.6 in March.

10:00 am EST

•  Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise -.4% versus a +1.0% gain in January.

Upcoming Splits

• (RDWR) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Eurozone industrial production data, EU Finance Ministers Meeting and the (IMGN) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Central Bank Stimulus Hopes, Euro Bounce, Short-Covering, Retail/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 12.58 +1.78%

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -30.37%

• Total Put/Call .88 +3.53%

• NYSE Arms .93 +4.33%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.07 +.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 158.98 -.29%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.33 unch.

• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.89 -1.55%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -.5 bp

• TED Spread 21.5 +.5 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 -.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp

• Yield Curve 156.0 -1 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $140.90/Metric Tonne +.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +29 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.16%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -2.07% 2) Computer Hardware -2.01% 3) Steel -1.90%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FTNT, NIHD, MSFT, HFC, LFC, ACHN, CBSH, OZRK, IART, APOG, RTI, MPW, JOY, CBI, MSFT, AMBA, GDOT, HPQ, CLF, VALE and VLO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTIC 2) ACAD 3) TXN 4) MSFT 5) JOY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IART 2) ANDE 3) BRCM 4) DELL 5) YUM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.71%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.78% 2) Hospitals +1.26% 3) Biotech +1.20%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TVL, GTN, TM, ACAD, ZUMZ, PRLB, BKW, SBGI, ROST, OXY, DGX, LTD, FSLR, LRCX, NXST, URI and ONXX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LRCX 2) RAD 3) A 4) CVC 5) ACAD
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TOL 2) GD 3) BA 4) LMT 5) BRCM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Italy Sells Bonds With Debt Level Approaching Postwar Record. One day after Prime Minister Mario Monti announced Italy’s debt will reach a postwar record this year, the Treasury is tapping investors with the sale of as much as 7.5 billion euros ($9.8 billion) of bonds. The Rome-based Treasury will offer as much as 4 billion euros of a new three-year bond, 2 billion euros of 15-year debt and 1.5 billion euros of floating-rate notes. The auction should get “strong support” from 16.7 billion euros in redemptions due April 15 that will leave investors with funds to reinvest, UniCredit analysts including Chiara Cremonesi wrote in a note yesterday. Italy’s bond yields declined yesterday even after the government announced that its debt will rise to 130.4 percent of gross domestic product from 127 percent last year as the third- biggest economy borrows to contribute to bailouts and pay arrears to government suppliers.

• Merkel’s No-Nuke Stumble May Erode Re-Election Support: Energy. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s sweeping plan to transform Germany into a green-energy giant almost destroyed Nordseewerke GmbH, one of the country’s leading makers of wind-turbine foundations. Nordseewerke, which produces Statue of Liberty-sized foundations, ramped up its manufacturing capacity and head count in 2011 after Merkel declared that Germany would begin a massive project to install 25,000 megawatts of offshore wind power by 2030.

• Hagel Calls on North Korea to Tone Down Rhetoric. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said North Korea has “been skating very close to a dangerous line” and should tone down its “bellicose rhetoric” to ease mounting tensions in the region. “Their actions and their words have not helped defuse a combustible situation,” Hagel said yesterday at a Pentagon news conference. He said the U.S. is “fully prepared to deal with any contingency.”

• Australia’s Unemployment Rate Jumps to Three-Year High: Economy. Australia’s unemployment rate climbed in March to the highest level in more than three years, sending the local dollar and bond yields lower as traders added to bets the central bank will resume interest rate cuts. The jobless rate rose to 5.6 percent from 5.4 percent, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today, the highest since November 2009.

• Bank of Korea Resists Rate-Cut Pressure as North Threatens War. The Bank of Korea held borrowing costs unchanged for a sixth month, resisting pressure from the government for a reduction even as North Korean threats of war threaten to undermine confidence. Governor Kim Choong Soo and his board kept the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate at 2.75 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Seoul today. Nine of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move while the remainder forecast a 25-basis-point cut.

• Fed’s Fisher Says Benefits and Costs of Asset Purchases Unclear. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that both the ultimate benefits and costs of the central bank’s asset purchases are unclear. “Companies are starting to use the copious cheap money they have access to for investing in capital projects and employing increasing amounts of workers,” Fisher said in the text of prepared remarks given today in El Paso, Texas. “But it is not yet clear that we will achieve a justifiable bang for the trillions of bucks the Fed has flooded the economy with.” “The Federal Reserve has provided plenty of, if not too much, high-octane fuel in the form of cheap and abundant money to propel the economy forward,” Fisher said at the University of Texas at El Paso.

• Microsoft(MSFT) Windows Weak Demand Drives Worst PC Drop on Record. Personal-computer shipments plummeted in every region of the world in the first quarter as buyers opted for smartphones and tablet computers and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)’s newest operating system met with weak demand. Global PC unit shipments fell 14 percent in the first quarter -- the worst such decline on record -- to 76.3 million, a bigger drop than the 7.7 percent decline IDC had forecast, the market researcher said in a statement. The slump was the steepest since IDC began tracking shipments in 1994. Every PC maker except China’s Lenovo Group Ltd. (992) experienced declines as businesses chose to install Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system on employees’ computers instead of the newer Windows 8, Jay Chou, an analyst at Framingham, Massachusetts- based IDC, said in an interview. Consumers also shunned Windows 8 in favor of smartphones and tablets, which can handle many of the same tasks, he said. “We don’t have a lot of reason to be optimistic that the market will remain in more than replacement-cycle mode,” Chou said. Consumers have found Windows 8’s redesigned user interface disorienting, and prices for touch-screen enabled computers that run the software are still too high, he said. The last time worldwide PC shipments experienced a double- digit percentage decline was in the third quarter of 2001, when the market was roiled by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the impact of a decline in technology stocks, Chou said. 

• Goldman Sachs(GS), Citigroup(C), Carlyle Received Fed Minutes Early. Banks including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., along with congressional staff members and trade groups, received potentially market-moving Federal Reserve information 19 hours before the public in a release the central bank called accidental. Brian Gross, a member of the Fed’s congressional liaison staff, distributed the March 19-20 minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2 p.m. yesterday Washington time, according to an e-mail obtained by Bloomberg News. Gross referred questions to Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith.

• Iron Ore’s $250 Billion Glut Pressures Rio to Vale: Commodities. The world’s biggest iron-ore producers are planning $250 billion of new mines, threatening to deepen a price slump for the commodity already forecast to drop for at least the next three years. Mining companies are facing growing investor pressure to defer or cancel projects to stem price declines. Rio Tinto Group (RIO), the second-largest iron ore exporter, will decide on one of the biggest industry expansions in Western Australia in the second half. A decision to delay would boost its earnings in 2015 by $3.7 billion, according to Liberum Capital Ltd.

Wall Street Journal:

• The President's Priorities. Debt in 2014 will hit 78.2% of the economy.

Fox News:

• Obama budget proposes more than $1 trillion in taxes, fees. President Obama's budget proposal includes new tax increases that hit everything from deductions for top earners to packs of cigarettes. Though the president's newly released plan claims to include $580 billion in new revenue over the next decade, when all taxes and fees are counted the real number is slightly higher than $1 trillion. 

• N. Korea positions missile launchers on coast, Hagel says regime close to 'dangerous line'. North Korea has positioned two mobile missile launchers on the country's east coast, senior Pentagon officials tell Fox News -- movement that comes as Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned Wednesday that North Korea is "skating very close to a dangerous line." The senior Pentagon officials told Fox News that a test of the Musudan missiles could occur "at any time." If the North Koreans proceed, it would be the first mobile test of this specific intermediate-range missile, which has a range of 2,500 miles. The fact that this would be their first test is giving military leaders an added layer of uncertainty about the potential for an unintended mistake. 

CNBC: 

• Pisani: Why Is Fed Sending Minutes to Lobbyists? (video)

Zero Hedge:

• The European Commission Lays Out The True Blueprint For The Future Of Every European Country.

• Breaking Bad. (graphs)

• Sam Zell: "The Stock Market Feels Like The Housing Market Of 2006". (video)

Business Insider:

• Americans Are Eating Rice Containing 'Harmful Levels Of Lead'. 

• This Video Of A Marching Robot Recalls A Former Army Officer's Haunting Prophecy. (video)

• Horrifying Illegal Abortion Clinic Wasn't Inspected For 17 Years Due To Pro-Choice Policy.  

Reuters: 

• Yum(YUM) says bird flu hits China April sales; March down. KFC parent Yum Brands Inc warned that a new bird flu outbreak in China badly hit restaurant sales there this month, even as the company also reported a sharper-than-expected slide in March sales in the country caused by the lingering impact of a separate food safety scare. "Within the past week, publicity associated with Avian flu in China has had a significant, negative impact on KFC sales," the company said in a regulatory filing on Wednesday.

• U.S. revives probe of media's handling of economic data -source.

• Three more top executives leave J.C. Penney(JCP) - report.

Telegraph:

• Tobin Tax is madness for Europe, and economic war against Britain. France's experiment with the Tobin Tax has proved a spectacular flop. Its finance ministry admits that the scattershot levy on financial transactions has raised just a third of the money expected since August.

• French failure to reform threatens euro, warns Brussels. France, the eurozone's second biggest economy, has been singled out for harsh criticism by the European Commission with a warning that low French competitiveness and high debt threaten the EU's single currency.

• Christine Lagarde: crisis has created 'three-speed economy'. The global financial crisis has created a "three-speed economy" with the eurozone at the bottom and a too-big-to-fail banking model that is "more dangerous than ever", the managing director of the International Monetary Fund has said.  

Kyodo:

• Japan stays alert for potentially more than one missile launch by North Korean, citing Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera.

South China Morning Post:

• Chinese North Korea Scholar Says 70%-80% Chance of War. Zhang Liangui, professor of intl. strategic research at the Chinese Communist Party's Central Party School, says North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may want to use crisis as an opportunity to force reunification of Korean Peninsula.

China Securities Journal:

• China Small Firms "Not Optimistic" on Economy. Chinese small and medium-sized companies are "not optimistic" about the economy this year because of weak domestic and overseas demand, China Securities Journal reports after a tour in Shandong and Zhejiang  provinces and Shenzhen city. Coal and cotton stockpiles in Qingdao's bonded zone remain high. Some small companies report falling profit because of rising labor, land leasing and other operating costs, the report said.

• China's southern city of Guangzhou will raise the minimum down payment requirement for second home purchases to 70% if its home prices rise by more than 2% in April on month, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 92.5 -1.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (PIR)/.60

• (OZRK)/.56

• (JBHT)/.64

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index for March is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +1.1% gain in February. 

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 360K versus 385K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3067K versus 3063K.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Italian 10Y bond auction, German CPI, Australia Unemployment data, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.