Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +59.0%
- Total Put/Call 1.23 +4.24%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.20 -2.08%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 164.60 +5.1%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 84.50 +1.20%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 308.31 +3.10%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 17.25 +.25 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 +.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $113.90/Metric Tonne -2.32%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.0 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -3 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -214 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Draghi Sees Economy Recovering as ECB Rates Left on Hold.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro-area economy
will return to growth by the end of the year, handing policy makers a
reason to hold back fresh stimulus. “Euro-area economic activity
should stabilize and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a
subdued pace,” Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt today. “We will
monitor very closely all incoming developments and we stand ready to
act.”
- German Factory Orders Fall; Economy Struggles to Recover. German factory
orders (GRIORTMM) fell more than economists predicted in April as
Europe’s largest economy struggled to gain strength. Orders, adjusted
for seasonal swings and inflation, decreased 2.3 percent from March,
when they increased a revised 2.3 percent, the Economy Ministry in
Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 1 percent drop, according to the median of 39 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. In the year, workday-adjusted orders fell 0.4 percent.
- Turkish Bonds, Stocks Slump as Erdogan Fails to Calm Investors. Turkish bond yields surged and stocks
slumped after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to calm
investor concern as anti-government protesters demonstrated for
the seventh day. The lira depreciated. Yields on two-year benchmark bonds advanced 46 basis points
to 6.78 percent at 5:48 p.m. in Istanbul, extending the weekly jump to 71 basis points. The Borsa Istanbul National 100 (XU100) index retreated 4.7 percent to 75,895.26 at the close, its lowest level since Dec. 6. The lira weakened 0.3 percent to 1.8986 a
dollar, after earlier strengthening as much as 0.6 percent.
- European Stocks Decline After Draghi Comments on Stimulus.
European stocks declined, reversing earlier gains, as the European
Central Bank refrained from announcing additional stimulus measures
immediately even as it held its benchmark interest rate. Barclays Plc
(BARC) fell to a one-month low as Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. sold a
stake in the lender. Fiat SpA lost 6.5 percent as Chrysler Group LLC
went in for a vehicle recall. France Telecom SA (FTE) rose after its
Orange Business Services unit won a five-year deal to deploy a private
network for Heineken NV. Johnson Matthey Plc (JMAT) jumped to its
highest price in at least
23 years after posting full-year profit that beat estimates. The Stoxx 600 dropped 1.2 percent to 291.69 at the close of
trading in London, after earlier gaining as much as 0.4 percent.
- Japanese Stock-Index Futures Drop, Signaling Third Day of Losses. Japanese equity futures fell,
signaling a third day of losses for the Nikkei 225 Stock
Average, on concern the yen’s rally to a seven-week high versus
the dollar will hurt corporate profits. Futures on the Nikkei 225 expiring in June slumped 3.1
percent to 12,420 as of 1:52 a.m. in Osaka. The Japanese equity
benchmark has fallen 4.7 percent in the past two days, extending
a retreat since May 23 to 17 percent. The yen strengthened 2.6
percent to 96.49 per dollar today.
- Yen Rises Most in One Year as Traders Reverse BOJ-Linked Bets. The yen rallied the most in more than
a year against the dollar, reaching a seven-week high, as
traders unwound bets on a weaker Japanese currency based on the
Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus plan.
- Credit Swaps in U.S. Rise as Investors Search for Stimulus Clues. A
gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk
rose to a two-month high as investors sought clues in labor-market data
about the pace of central bank debt purchases. The Markit CDX North
American Investment Grade Index, a
credit-default swaps benchmark that investors use to hedge
against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 1.9
basis points to a mid-price of 87.9 basis points at 11:07 a.m. in New
York, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge had
fallen as much as 1.2 basis points before weekly jobless claims data
came in higher than economists’ forecasts and the previous week’s level
was revised upward. The risk premium on the Markit CDX North American
High
Yield Index added 12.8 basis points to 440.7 basis points,
Bloomberg prices show. The average relative yield on speculative-grade,
or junk-rated, debt widened 5.1 basis points to 546.9 basis points,
Bloomberg data show.
- Higher Taxes Mute Wealth Effect for Wealthy: EcoPulse. High-income Americans are
demonstrating some frugality as the positive wealth effect from
a rallying stock market is being offset by tax increases.
- JPMorgan ‘Afraid’ of Emerging Market Selloff Impact on Banks.
The emerging market selloff sparked by speculation the
Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus may cut revenue for investment
banks including Standard Chartered Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc, JPMorgan
Chase & Co.’s Cazenove said. Emerging markets are going through
the most disruptive period since the collapse of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. in 2008 based on the rise in equity, currency and rates
volatility, according to the JPMorgan unit’s report titled “Fed Tapering: Who is Afraid of EM Selloff? We Are!” The swings may cause
a “material slowdown” in emerging market fixed-income revenues with
volumes “drying up,” Cazenove analysts including Kian Abouhossein in
London wrote.
- Dimon Sees ‘Scary’ World as Interest Rates Return to Normal.
Global markets will face increased volatility as central banks bring
interest rates back to normal levels, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. “We should all hope for a
normalization of interest rates -- that’s a good thing,” Dimon said
today during a panel discussion at the Fortune Global Forum in Chengdu,
China. “As
we go back to normal, it's going to be scary, and it's going to
be kind of volatile.”
- Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail Stocks: Commodities. Commodities
are trailing equities for
the longest stretch in almost 15 years as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and
Citigroup Inc. predict the end of the decade-long bull market even as
the global economy expands. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot
Index of 24 commodities lagged behind the MSCI All-Country World Index
for six months, the longest stretch since 1998. Hedge funds cut combined bullish bets across 18 U.S. raw-material futures by 51 percent from a
16-month high in September and are bearish on six of them.
Commodities will return 1.6 percent in a year as losses in
agriculture and precious metals diminish gains from energy and
industrial metals, Goldman said last month. Investors pulled a record $23.3 billion from commodity
funds this year as global equities attracted $182 billion,
according to EPFR Global, which tracks money flows.
- Copper Heads for Biggest Loss in Two Weeks on Demand Concerns. Copper
headed for the biggest loss in two weeks in New York as signs of
slowing in China and Germany add to concerns that global economic growth
will ebb, dimming the outlook for metals demand. German factory
orders slid more than forecast in April, figures showed today. Export
growth in China, the biggest copper
consumer, probably grew in May at half the pace of a month earlier,
economists said in a Bloomberg survey before data due June 8. RBC
Capital Markets cut its 2013 forecast for copper prices by 9.3 percent.
“Poor global economic growth prospects are weighing” on metals, H.
Fraser Phillips, a Toronto-based analyst at RBC, said
in a note today. “Significant excess inventories have
accumulated, and capacity utilization rates are well below full
effect levels, pointing to a poor commodity pricing
environment.”
- U.S. Household Worth Tops Pre-Recession Peak for First Time. Household wealth in the U.S. jumped
to a record in the first quarter, exceeding its pre-recession
peak for the first time, bolstered by gains in the stock and
housing markets that are helping Americans mend finances.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
4-Traders:
- Fed's Plosser Says Time to Ramp Down on Stimulus. "I think it's time that we begin to gradually unwind ourselves from this
activity," said Mr. Plosser, who is a vocal internal critic of the
Fed's stimulus efforts. He spoke with reporters following an address
during a Boston College financial conference.
LA Times:
Forbes:
Reuters:
- Moody's cuts Illinois credit rating on inability to fix pensions. Moody's
Investors Service on Thursday downgraded Illinois' general obligation
credit rating to the lowest rating in the state's history, the second
downgrade by a major rating agency since state lawmakers last week
failed to pass a plan to deal with a $100 billion unfunded public
pension liability. Moody's downgraded Illinois' $27 billion of general
obligation debt to A3 from A2, with a negative outlook. Even
prior to the downgrade, Illinois had the lowest rating of any
U.S. state.
Financial Times:
- ‘Frankenstein’ CDOs twitch back to life. Has
Frankenstein returned? That is a question some investors might ask when
they look at the world of collateralised debt obligations. After all, a
mere three years ago it seemed as if the really monstrous forms of CDOs
that proliferated during the credit bubble had been killed off. Most
notably, issuance of so-called synthetic CDOs – or bundles of
derivatives based on corporate, mortgage and sovereign debt – collapsed
from a peak of $648bn in 2007 to $98bn in 2009.
But now those CDOs are apparently twitching again.
Telegraph:
Hong Kong Govt:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Airlines -2.01% 2) Steel -1.02% 3) Semis -.91%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- UNG, TKC, ELP, POM, STZ, RBS, BOFI, BCS, CVX, MTB, CG, VRA, RST, PAY, ASNA, FRAN, CCU, SJM, RHP, URI, DVN, ALTR, FARO, RMD, MN, BLK, BGC, GIII, MMP, AMBA, CZZ, SHOS and SWKS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) VWO 2) EWW 3) JNK 4) KBH 5) EEM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DHI 2) MS 3) TFM 4) RH 5) RYL
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- Networking +2.67% 2) Hospitals +1.24% 3) Defense +.72%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- AMPE, LRE, SODA, CIEN, JDSU, VMW, FNSR, ACAD and OCR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) DOLE 2) KKR 3) HMA 4) CIEN 5) GIS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) BKE 2) COST 3) CIEN 4) MCD 5) SJM
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bond
Losses Accelerate as Junk Sales Surpass 2012: Euro Credit. Bondholder's
losses on high-yield debt are deepening in Europe as issuance of junk
securities this year already exceeds the total for all of 2012, with
companies taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs. Investors
forfeited .2 percent on the notes in the first four days of June,
following a negative .6% in May and gains of 1.6% in April, Bank of
America Merrill Lynch index data show. Losses are mounting as sales of
high-yield bonds surge to 34.6 billion euros, the busiest start to a
year on record, according to Bloomberg. "Investors are worried about
what will happen to the large amount of total-return driven money that
has come into credit," said Hans Lorenzen, a credit strategist at
Citigroup Inc. in London. "Will investors decide the party is over and
it's time to move on?"
- RTS Futures Signal Bear Market Isn’t Finished: Russia Overnight. Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS Index (RTSI$)
entered a bear market and futures contracts pointed to further
declines as prospects for weaker commodity prices sour investor
sentiment in the world’s biggest energy exporter. Futures on the gauge fell 0.5 percent to 128,490 in New
York after the RTS tumbled 1.6 percent to 1,301.08 in Moscow,
leaving it down 20 percent from a Jan. 28 peak.
- China Vanke Chairman Says Country Faces Risk of Property Bubble. China
Vanke Co. Chairman Wang Shi said the country’s property market faces
the risk of a “bubble,” reiterating concerns the nation’s biggest
developer by sales raised three months ago. The bubble isn’t “light,”
Wang said at a conference in
Shanghai today. “If the bubble lasted, it will be dangerous.” Wang said in a March CBS Corp. broadcast of the 60 Minutes
news program that the housing bubble could spell “disaster”
for China’s real estate market and that debt held by developers
is a serious problem. “You can’t generalize for the Chinese market,” he said.
“Then of course if the bubbles are not controlled, the result
will be catastrophic.” The average price in China’s 10 biggest cities, including
Beijing and Shanghai, jumped 9.7 percent from a year earlier to
17,202 yuan per square meter last month, up 1.1 percent from
April, SouFun said.
- China Export Gains Seen Halved With Fake-Data Crackdown. China’s
crackdown on fake export
invoices used to disguise money flows is probably trimming
the nation’s trade figures, revealing subdued global demand that will
weigh on economic growth. Outbound shipments may have grown 7.1 percent
in May from a year earlier, less than half the previous month’s reported
14.7 percent, based on the median estimate of 34 economists ahead of
data due June 8. Import growth probably slowed to 6.9 percent
from April’s 16.8 percent, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
- China Blogger Who Began Querying Home Prices Taken to Tea. Two
men greeted him at the police
station as he was escorted in from the January cold. Peng
Chengxian didn’t ask who they were. Each wore a light-colored jacket and
carried a dark handbag. They must be “Guo Bao,” Peng says he thought.
That’s the name of China’s secret police in charge of keeping order
among
more than 1.3 billion people for the ruling Communist Party.
- China’s Small-Company Stocks May Fall Further 10%, Shenyin Says. China’s
ChiNext index of small companies may fall a further 10 percent from
current levels because of valuations and concern they may miss earnings
estimates, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. The ChiNext index in Shenzhen slipped 0.4 percent to 1,029.11 as of 10:25 a.m., adding to a 5.6 percent slide from
this year’s high set on May 27. “Stretched valuations and overly high expectations about
the new economy and the short-term success of the economic
transformation are the reasons for the correction in the
ChiNext,” Wang Sheng, an analyst at the Shanghai-based
brokerage, wrote in a report dated today. “Expectations about
tight liquidity and lower-than-estimated earnings are catalysts
for the decline.”
The ChiNext traded at 58.1 times reported earnings on May
30, the highest in almost two years, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.
- Abenomics Won’t Be ’Magic Bullet’ for Japan, Says Johnson of MIT. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
policies to stem deflation and spur growth won’t be a “magic
bullet” that shakes the nation’s economy out of stagnation, said
Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. While Abe’s efforts are “significant,” an aging population,
heavy debt loads and a lack of immigration will continue to
hobble the Japanese economy, Johnson, a former chief economist
at the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen.
- RBA Rate Cuts Having Smaller Impact on Housing, Treasury Says. Australia’s record-low interest rates are having a weaker impact on the housing industry than has historically been the case, as consumers shy away from taking on more debt, Treasury said. “There’s less appetite for debt and that’s part of the
smaller response to interest-rate cuts in terms of how much
dwelling activity it’s generating,” Treasury official David Gruen told a parliamentary committee in Canberra today. The
department indicated nominal gross domestic product for the year
ending June 30 may be weaker than the May budget’s 3.25 percent
forecast.
- Asian Stocks Slide to Lowest Since January on U.S. Data.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading to a
four-month low, after U.S. jobs and factory data missed estimates and
investors speculated whether the Federal Reserve will scale back bond
purchases. Japanese shares swung between gains and losses. Techtronic
Industries Co. (669), a maker of power tools that gets 73 percent of its
sales in North America, dropped 4.1 percent in Hong Kong. Rinnai Corp.
(5947), a manufacturer of gas appliances, slumped 8.4 percent in Tokyo
as it plans to raise as much as 22.5 billion yen ($227 million) in a
share sale. Tokyo Electric
Power Co. tumbled 8.6 percent, leading Japanese utilities lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.7 percent to 131.37 as
of 12:08 p.m. in Tokyo. More than three shares fell for each
that rose on the gauge, which is heading for the lowest close
since Jan. 28. The measure fell 8.3 percent through yesterday
from this year’s high on May 20 amid concern the Federal Reserve
may soon scale back stimulus and as Japanese stock indexes
entered a correction last week.
- ETF Selloff Outpacing
Junk Signaling More Losses: Credit Markets. Losses on junk-bond
exchange-traded funds are outpacing the broader U.S. speculative-grade
market by the most in three years, signaling a deepening slump for debt
that traded at record-high prices less than a month ago. BlackRock
Inc.'s $14.5 billion iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, the
biggest of its kind, plunged 2.6% in May, 2.1 percentage points more
than the decline in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield
Index. Investors redeemed 3.3 million shares, or about $305 million,
from the fund June 4, its biggest one-day outflow on record. While ETFs
hold less than $40 billion of the $1.15 trillion U.S. high-yield bond
market, they act as a quicker gauge of market sentiment because their
shares trade more frequently than most corporate bonds. "The ETFs are
more reflective of where the market actually is," said Peter Tchir,
founder of hedge-fund adviser TF Market Advisors. ETFs may be "a leading
indicator that you're going to see more selling pressure on the market
as a whole," he said.
- U.S. Company Credit Swaps Rise as Investors Weigh Fed Stimulus. A gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk
rose to the highest level in two months amid speculation on the
future pace of Federal Reserve stimulus. The Markit CDX North
American Investment Grade Index, a
credit-default swaps benchmark that investors use to hedge
against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased 3.8 basis
points to a mid-price of 85.7 basis points at 4:20 p.m. in New York, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the highest level since April 5. The risk premium on the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index rose 18.7 basis points to 426.3 basis points, Bloomberg prices show. The average relative yield on speculative-grade, or junk-rated, debt widened 16 basis points to 540.1 basis points, the
biggest jump since April 8, Bloomberg data show.
- Fed Grants Foreign Banks Leeway in Dodd-Frank Swap Pushout Rule. Foreign-based banks won leeway in
Dodd-Frank Act requirements to separate swaps trading from their
U.S. branches under a Federal Reserve policy released yesterday. The central bank said in an interim final rule that the
banks will be eligible to apply for a transition period of 24
months in rules taking effect July 16. The Institute of
International Bankers, a lobbying group representing Credit
Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) among others, urged the Fed
to grant foreign banks the same phase-in process U.S. banks like
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) received earlier this year.
- Rebar Falls as Stock Market Drop Spurs Concern China’s Slowing.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell as a six-day decline
in the stock market fueled wider concern that growth in China is
slowing. Rebar for delivery in October on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell as much as 1.7 percent to 3,422 yuan ($558) a metric ton,
before trading at 3,428 at 10:40 a.m. Futures fell
14 percent this year.
- Rubber Drops as Yen Rebounds, U.S. Data Raise Demand Concerns. Rubber declined for a second day as
the Japanese currency traded near a one-month high against the
dollar, cutting the appeal of yen-based futures, and after U.S.
jobs and factory data missed estimates. The contract for delivery in
November fell as much as 2.3 percent to 251.2 yen a kilogram ($2,528 a
metric ton) and was at 252.5 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at
10:08 a.m. Futures
extended losses for this year to 16 percent.
- U.S. Crude Output Exceeds Imports for First Time in 16 Years.
U.S. domestic crude-oil production exceeded imports last week for the
first time in 16 years, a government report showed today. Output was
32,000 barrels a day higher than imports in the seven days ended May 31,
according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration,
the Energy Department’s statistical arm. Production had been lower
than international purchases since January 1997. A combination of
horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked
supplies trapped in shale formations in states including North Dakota,
Oklahoma and Texas. The surge in oil and gas production helped the U.S.
meet 88 percent of its own energy needs in February, the highest monthly
rate since April 1986, EIA data show. Crude inventories climbed to the
highest level in 82 years in the week ended May 24. “It will help U.S.
energy independence and help our trade balance quite a bit,” said
Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in
Winchester, Massachusetts. “You have to wonder if you are going to see
downward pressure on prices.”
- SAC Said to Tell Employees Firm to Survive Redemptions. Steven A. Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors LP told employees it plans to
stay open for outside investors after significant client redemptions,
according to two people with knowledge of the matter. SAC
President Tom Conheeney, in a June 4 e-mail to employees, said the firm
doesn’t plan to release a number for the redemptions, said the people,
who asked not to be identified because the communication is private. SAC
doesn’t plan significant staff reductions, Conheeney wrote, according
to the people.
Wall Street Journal:
- IRS Staff Cite Washington Link. Two Workers Tell Congress That Agency Officials Helped Direct Tea-Party Reviews. Two Internal Revenue Service employees in the agency's Cincinnati
office told congressional investigators that IRS officials in Washington
helped direct the probe of tea-party groups that began in 2010.
Transcripts of the interviews, viewed
Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal, appear to contradict earlier
statements by top IRS officials, who have blamed lower-level workers in
Cincinnati.
- Beijing Gets a Pass on Iran Sanctions.
The State Department on Wednesday exempted several countries, including
China and India, from financial sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales
because those countries have continued to reduce their purchases of
Iranian crude oil.
- ‘Dark Pools’ Face Scrutiny. Regulators Ask for Details on Stock Trading in Murkiest Parts of the Market. Officials are increasing their scrutiny of an opaque corner of the market where stocks change hands in the dark.
- The Hidden Jobless Disaster. At the present slow pace of job growth, it will
require more than a decade to get back to full employment defined by
prerecession standards.
Fox News:
- Obama's UN ambassador pick has history of controversial comments. The former White House adviser and longtime Obama friend nominated
Wednesday as the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has a
history of controversial comments that could haunt her in confirmation
-- including likening U.S. foreign policies to those of the Nazis.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- Luxury Sales Hit by Chinese Fears of 'Ostentation'. Solid
earnings and soaring share prices for Tiffany, Michael Kors and other
luxury brands has led to widespread talk of a new boom in high-end
goods, but it may be too early to pop the corks on the Dom Perignon. A new study from one of the world's top luxury
experts predicts that growth in such sales will be as much as 50% slower
this year than last. The main reason: China.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
Reuters:
- Tropical Storm Andrea forms over Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Andrea was swirling over the east-central
Gulf, about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida, and
packing maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (64 kph),
the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said.
Financial Times:
- Paris threatens EU-US talks as China trade war looms. Paris
is threatening to block EU-US trade talks that Britain wants to launch
at this month’s G8 summit in Northern Ireland if French demands to
exclude cultural industries such as music and film are not met. Washington, London and Brussels are pushing hard for a new
transatlantic trade agreement to boost the US and European economies,
with President Barack Obama swinging his weight behind the move.
- US dividend play at risk of overrunning.
When
it comes to buying stocks, owning high dividend paying companies has
been the trend to follow for some years. But, with the US equity bull
market in its fifth year and the S&P 500 occupying record territory,
the preference for owning stocks that pay hefty dividends is under assault.
Telegraph:
- Emerging markets displace Europe as fulcrum of world risk. There
is a wicked double edge to the emerging-market boom that has so
enthralled us for the past decade. The economies of these rising powers
are by now big enough to shake the entire world if they come off the
rails. My fear is that a China-led BRICS shock will transmit a wave of
deflation across the planet, pushing the West over the edge into another
downward leg of trade depression. The eurozone polity cannot withstand such a blow. Youth unemployment is above
40pc in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece, and “nominal” GDP is contracting
across the four countries, meaning that high debt is rising on a shrinking
base. Another twist of the deflation knife will be lethal.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.0 +6.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 103.75 +4.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 345K versus 354K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2973K versus 2986K prior.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Sarah Bloom Raskin speaking, Spanish/French 10Y note auctions, BoE rate decision, ECB rate decision, Challenger Job Cuts for May, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for June, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, 1Q Change in Household Net Worth, UBS investor conference, (ETH) investor conference and the (V) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 -19.05%
- Total Put/Call 1.18 +4.42%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.89 +3.68%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 156.58 +5.01%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.50 +3.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 299.25 +4.5%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +2 bps
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.60/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.0 -7.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -3 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -45 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
