Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Richest Man Sees Economic Growth Slowing in Second Half. China’s richest man Zong Qinghou said the nation’s growth will slide further in the second half of the year and proposed cutting taxes and breaking up monopolies to drive an economic recovery. “People will only invest if there is prospect of making a profit,” Zong said in an interview in Beijing yesterday. “Medium and small companies are not willing to take loans. If they can’t make a profit, why bother taking a loan?” “Economic growth will slow down again in the second half because there have been no major economic policies rolling out,” he said. Zong’s prescription for driving a Chinese recovery is in line with Premier Li Keqiang’s call for a reduced role for the state in the economy, with the billionaire urging the breaking up of monopolies and easier administrative approvals from the government. Zong was pessimistic about the world outlook, saying “the global economy is declining.” China will recover faster than other countries, he predicted.

• China Won’t Have Large Stimulus This Year, Finance Minister Says. Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said the nation won’t use “large-scale fiscal stimulus” measures this year, adding to signals that the government will tolerate a slowdown in the economy. China will promote growth and boost employment while fine-tuning policies and keeping the fiscal deficit unchanged, and will also avoid big adjustments to short-term macroeconomic policies, Lou said in July 11 comments in meetings with U.S. officials in Washington.

• Bernanke Says Fed Bond Purchases Not on ‘Preset Course’. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s asset purchases “are by no means on a preset course” as he sought to tamp down an increase in borrowing costs that threatens to slow the economic expansion. “We’re going to be responding to the data,” Bernanke said today to the House Financial Services Committee. “If the data are stronger than we expect, we’ll move more quickly” to reduce purchases. If data “don’t meet the kinds of expectations we have about where the economy’s going, then we would delay that process or potentially increase purchases for a time.”

• Putin Warns U.S. Russia Won’t Back Down on Snowden Asylum. President Vladimir Putin warned the U.S. that Russia won’t yield to pressure to hand over Edward Snowden, while insisting he won’t allow the fugitive American to poison ties between the former Cold War foes. “We won’t behave like many countries are behaving,” Putin told reporters in the Siberian city of Chita, a day after the former U.S. security contractor bid for temporary asylum in Russia. “We are an independent country and we have an independent foreign policy and we will carry it out. I hope our partners understand this and respond calmly.” 

• Currency to Oil Rates Targeted for Tougher Rules After Libor. Benchmarks underpinning markets from oil to currencies face tougher oversight under plans by global regulators to prevent any repeat of Libor-style fraud. Rates should be based as much as possible on real transaction data, rather than estimates, and banks should tackle conflicts of interest, the International Organization of Securities Commissions, a Madrid-based group that harmonizes global market rules, said in guidelines published today. 

• Fed’s Raskin Urges Higher Bank Capital Standards to Avert Crises. Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin said regulators should prevent asset-price bubbles by boosting the amount and quality of capital required of banks. Officials also should continue stress testing of lenders, restrain banks from “excessively” extending loans, and reduce “overreliance on unstable short-term wholesale funding,” Raskin said in a speech prepared for delivery today in Washington. She did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in her prepared remarks.

• Egypt Bond Yields, Default Risk Rise as Islamists Shun Cabinet. Egypt’s benchmark bonds fell, pushing the yield to a week high, after Islamists boycotted the transitional government and called for renewed protests. The country’s default risk advanced for a third day. The yield on the government’s 5.75 percent notes due in April 2020 increased seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 8.54 percent, the highest on a closing basis since July 10, at 2:25 p.m. in Cairo, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. Five-year credit default swaps climbed 50 basis points to 725, according to CMA data.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Recap: Bernanke Faces House Lawmakers.

• Violent Protests Follow India School-Lunch Poisonings. Free Food Was Provided Under Government's Midday-Meal Program. The food that killed at least 22 children in eastern India was apparently contaminated with a chemical compound used in pesticides, a state official said Wednesday, as hundreds of villagers protested the worst by far in a spate of health scares linked to a public school-lunch program. The children, aged between 8 and 12, became sick, with some vomiting, fainting and foaming at the mouth, after lunch Tuesday at an elementary school in Gandaman, a village about 65 miles from Patna, the capital of Bihar, one of India's poorest states.

• Muddy Waters Bets Against American Tower(AMT) in First U.S. Move. Short-selling firm Muddy Waters, run by Carson Block, is betting against wireless and broadcast-tower provider American Tower Corp. AMT -0.79%, according to a report released on its website Wednesday.

Fox News:

• UN nominee Power refuses to answer Rubio on US ‘crimes’. U.N. ambassador nominee Samantha Power faced a largely friendly audience at her confirmation hearing on Wednesday, but had a rocky and at-times awkward exchange with Sen. Marco Rubio as he pressed her on past comments suggesting the U.S. should apologize for its "sins." The Florida Republican repeatedly asked Power for examples of crimes "committed or sponsored" by the United States. Her response was that "the United States is the greatest country on earth" and she "would never apologize for America."  Rubio, pausing, said: "So your answer to whether we committed or sponsored crimes is that the United States is the greatest country on earth." Power ultimately did not say whether she thought the U.S. has committed crimes. Instead, she cited "mistakes" like the abuse at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. She also cited her past criticism of the Clinton administration's inaction with regard to the Rwandan genocide. 

MarketWatch: 

• Sell signal from key market indicator. Commentary: Famous ‘High Low Logic Index’ is no longer bullish.

CNBC:

• For Richard Perry, Japanese bonds are the new subprime. Corporate bond buyers in Japan today are a lot like investors in subprime mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble, hedge fund manager Richard Perry said at the Delivering Alpha conference. Perry Capital is shorting Japanese corporate bonds, looking to profit on a decline in the price of the bonds. "People don't do the credit work," Perry said. "People rely on credit agencies." Perry said that one indicator that the market was not paying enough attention to risk in the Japanese bonds was the fact that bond prices had held steady while the equities had declined sharply.

• Here is Why Chanos is Short Caterpillar(CAT). (video)

• Watch Bharara warn Wall Street: ‘People should be afraid’. (video) In an interview at Delivering Alpha, a conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor, US Attorney Preet Bharara tells Jim Cramer that anyone on Wall Street who has broken the law shouldn't think they will escape prosecution because a lot of time has passed or they are using a secretive technology to communicate.

• China bubble to end commodities supercycle: Chanos. (video)

• Thanks to QE, bubble of 2000 looks like 'day at beach’. Even as global markets continue to be held hostage over the prospect of the unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive monetary stimulus, Hans Olsen, chief investment officer of Americas at Barclays, argues that the tapering has to happen, and the sooner, the better.

Zero Hedge:

• Farewell "Housing Recovery" - Housing Starts Miss Most Since January 2007, Permits Have Biggest Miss In History. (graphs)

• US Totalitarianism Wins Again As Appeals Court Brings NDAA's Indefinite Military Detention Back.

• Following 45% Collapse, Mortgage Applications Are Back To 2011 Lows. (graphs)

• Bank Of America(BAC): From Loss To Profit Thanks To Mark-To-Unicorn.

Business Insider:

• In Case You Don't Appreciate How Fast The 'Windows Monopoly' Is Getting Destroyed...

• Chinese Museum Forced To Close After Most Of Its 40,000 Artifacts Are Found To Be Fake.

• CREDIT SUISSE: This Is 'Not Your Grandmother's Economic Cycle'.

• ART CASHIN: Bernanke May Have Just Set Himself Up For A Whole Bunch Of Unwanted Results.

New York Times:

• I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change. China’s growth has slowed significantly in recent months. But even its current pace of expansion may be unsustainable unless the country starts making significant and systemic changes to its economy, and soon, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday. “Since the global crisis, a mix of investment, credit and fiscal stimulus has underpinned activity,” the I.M.F. said in a major annual assessment of the Chinese economy. “This pattern of growth is not sustainable and is raising vulnerabilities. While China still has significant buffers to weather shocks, the margins of safety are diminishing.” The report emphasized downside risks to the Chinese economy, touching on familiar themes though imparting more of a sense of urgency than it has in the past.

Reuters:

• HIGHLIGHTS-Bernanke's Q&A testimony to House panel.

• METALS-Copper hits week low after Bernanke, rise in mine output. Copper slipped to its lowest price in a week on Wednesday after the dollar strengthened on fresh comments about scaling back the U.S. stimulus programme and following news of an sharp increase in output at the world's biggest copper mine. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.5 percent at $6,890 a tonne and touched a session low of $6,867.25, the weakest since July 10.

FINalternatives:

• Tips For Hedge Funds Looking To Navigate The Post-JOBS Act World.

Telegraph:

• Official: public debt is heading for stratosphere without further root and branch NHS reform.

Les Echos:

• France Allows Counties to Raise Property-Transaction Tax. The French government yesterday raised the so-called DMTO tax ceiling to 4.5% in 2014 and 2015 from 3.8%.

Valor Economico:

Restructuring: Flowers slams Europe over inaction


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true

• Brazil May Face Higher Inflation, Slower Growth in 4Q13. Govt economic team and President Dilma Rousseff's aides are preparing for slower economic growth and another inflation hike in the 4Q, citing a govt official.

Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true

Xinhua:

• China May Expand Property Tax Trial to Tier-One Cities. China may expand property tax trial to tier-one cities where property prices rise "relatively fast", as well as some tier-two and tier-three cities that are prepared for the trial, citing a person in the market.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.27%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.01% 2) Education -1.41% 3) Restaurants -.81%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CAT, MED, RGLD, UL, EVC, IBN, USB, VSTM, AMT, MAT, PJC, AXP, XPO, BRCM, FBRC, UTEK, TOWR, SFUN, WNC, DWA, RECN, RH, DWRE, POOL, MRTN, PNC, ORA, CLFD, NTRS and GCO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMT 2) BRCM 3) AXP 4) PHM 5) JOY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PCG 2) MCD 3) CAT 4) CCL 5) AXP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.38%

Sector Outperformers:

• Airlines +1.89% 2) Homebuilders +1.75% 3) Steel +1.54%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EXXI, FRC, PBR, BK, EQM, AVAV, YHOO, URI, INSM, STJ, TSLA, XONE and LINE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMT 2) MDVN 3) CTL 4) YHOO 5) BRCM
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BWA 2) PIR 3) DAL 4) A 5) PNC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• China’s Structural Shift in Economy Poses Risks, Jain Says. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain said Chinese policy makers’ efforts to bolster domestic consumption and reduce dependence on the government’s infrastructure spending poses some risks. “It’s the right strategy for them in the long run,” Jain said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin today in Singapore. Still, “if there is something to watch closely in China, it would be the implications of that shift from infrastructure spending.”  

• China to Avoid ‘Wide Fluctuations’ in Economy, Li Says. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation will seek to keep economic growth, employment and inflation within limits, avoiding “wide fluctuations,” without elaborating on what the government deems acceptable. China should also develop a “scientific macroeconomic policy framework” to offer markets “stable predictability,” Li told a forum of advisers and executives yesterday, according to a summary of the event published on the government’s website. Li’s comments, the first made public since the National Bureau of Statistics reported that economic growth slowed for a second quarter, signal he won’t let expansion slow too much, without indicating any immediate plans for stimulus.

• Singapore Exports Fall 8.8% in Longest Slump Since Global Crisis. Singapore’s exports in June extended the longest run of declines since the global financial crisis, suggesting the island’s economic growth last quarter may be lower than the government initially estimated. Non-oil domestic exports slid 8.8 percent from a year earlier, falling for a fifth month, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. The median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 5.8 percent drop. The decline in electronics demand is unlikely to turn around,” Irvin Seah, a Singapore-based economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd., said before the report. “External headwinds remain strong. Data from the U.S. have been mixed and Europe is still stuck in recession.” 

• Asian Stocks Outside Japan Rise Led by Material Producers. Asian stocks outside Japan increased, with a regional benchmark index gaining for a third day, as material producers advanced ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s address to the U.S. Congress today. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.2 percent to 443.25 as of 11:23 a.m. in Hong Kong.

• Bank of Portugal Lowers 2014 Growth Forecast on Budget Cuts. Portugal’s economy will grow less than previously forecast in 2014 when the government plans to implement new spending cuts, the country’s central bank said. Gross domestic product will expand 0.3 percent in 2014 after declining 2 percent in 2013, the Lisbon-based Bank of Portugal said today in its summer economic bulletin. In March, the central bank forecast a contraction of 2.3 percent for 2013 and growth of 1.1 percent in 2014. “In a context of high uncertainty, the risks associated with the projection for economic activity are balanced for 2013 and on the downside for 2014,” the central bank said in a statement. 

• Greek Coalition Government Faces Parliament Test Over Job Cuts. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faces the first test of his revamped coalition government today as he seeks parliamentary approval of austerity measures to unlock bailout funds. Greek unions, which held the third general strike of the year yesterday, have called for a rally outside the parliament building this evening as a two-day debate on the bill approaches its climax. A roll-call vote will come around midnight, hours before the scheduled visit of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

• Egypt’s Brotherhood Plans Mass Protests After Rejecting Cabinet. Islamist supporters of Egypt’s deposed President Mohamed Mursi announced fresh protests in Cairo after rejecting the new interim government. Rebuffing a government offer of reconciliation talks, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party that backed Mursi regards the Cabinet sworn in yesterday as “illegitimate” and formed “over the blood of martyrs,” spokesman Hamza Zawba said by phone. An Islamist coalition called for mass protests today under the slogan “Insistence.”

• Intel(INTC) to IBM(IBM) Feel Putin Pinch as Medvedev Loses Hold on Tech Hub. When Russian agents stormed the downtown offices of the Skolkovo technology hub being built near Moscow on April 18, a startled Intel Corp (INTC). executive got caught up in the raid. 

• Barclays, Traders Fined $487.9 Million by U.S. Regulator. Barclays Plc (BARC) and four of its former traders must pay a combined $487.9 million in fines and penalties, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said in a final order stemming from its investigation of alleged manipulation of energy markets. The agency directed the company and the traders to pay to the U.S. Treasury within 30 days $453 million in civil penalties, according to an 86-page order issued today. The London-based bank must also give up $34.9 million in profits, to be distributed to programs that help low-income homeowners pay energy bills in California, Arizona, Oregon and Washington, it said.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Wild Cards for the Fed's Exit Strategy. Inflation, Jobs and Fiscal Policy Among the Question Marks. The Federal Reserve's plans to wind down its big bond-buying program depend on solving four economic puzzles involving the job market, the inflation rate and fiscal policy. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gets another chance to clarify the central bank's thinking when he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, after weeks of market volatility generated largely by confusion and uncertainty about the Fed's plans.

• North Korean Ship Yields Worrisome Cargo. Panama Finds What U.S. Suspects Are Missile-System Components Originating in Cuba; Havana Calls the Gear 'Obsolete'. Panamanian authorities detained a North Korean-flagged ship and its crew as they headed for North Korea from Cuba carrying what U.S. officials suspect are components of a surface-to-air missile system. U.S. officials said the intercepted cargo is of potential worry if it indicates a growing bilateral arms trade between North Korea and Cuba.

• As Consumer-Discretionary Stocks Surge, Bears Lurk. Some Investors Tread Lightly Amid High Valuations. Companies whose fortunes are tied to consumer spending have been big winners in the stock market thanks to greater confidence about the U.S. economy. Now, some investors are wondering if the rally has gotten ahead of itself. Consumer-discretionary stocks—which include travel companies, auto makers, restaurants and retailers—are trading at some of their highest valuations in nearly four years.

• Republicans Get Filibusted. Democrats end the 60-vote Senate rule for presidential nominees. Senate Majority Leader Rich Trumka, er, Harry Reid held a gun to the head of Republicans on the filibuster, Republicans blinked, and President Obama and the AFL-CIO will now get their nominees confirmed for the cabinet and especially a legal quorum for the National Labor Relations Board. Cut through all the procedural blather and that's the essence of the Senate's "deal" Tuesday over the 60-vote filibuster rule. While Democrats didn't formally pull the trigger of the "nuclear option" to allow a mere majority vote to confirm nominees, they have now established a de facto majority-vote rule. Any time Democrats want to do so, they can threaten to pull the majority trigger.

Fox News:

• US, Israel comments could haunt UN nominee Samantha Power at hearing. President Obama's pick to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is facing under-the-radar opposition that could flare during Wednesday's confirmation hearing. While hawkish senators like Republican John McCain have come out in support of Samantha Power, more than four-dozen former military leaders, national security officials and conservative political groups are now asking senators to reject Power’s nomination.

MarketWatch.com:

• Gas Prices Surge Toward $5 in California. Most of the focus on the rise in gas prices, caused by the surge in oil prices, has been the effect of the march toward $4 a gallon. The focus is misplaced, at least to the extent that in several regions, most notably California, a gallon of premium may hit $5 before Labor Day.

• Japan’s ‘kamikaze’ economics risk Asia debt crisis. Commentary: Abe’s nationalistic reforms will have a global impact. “Abenomics,” the efforts of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to revive Japan’s moribund economy, has important implications outside of Japan.

CNBC: 

• Tesla(TSLA) shares slammed on Goldman's low price target. 

• Why Goldman Sachs(GS) earnings weren't all that: trader.

• Yahoo(YHOO) revenue outlook disappoints; shares fall.

• Card-transaction fees to be capped under EU proposal. Lucrative fees to process card transactions are to be capped under a proposal by the European Union's executive arm aiming to draw a line under a decade-long battle with payment groups such as Visa Europe and MasterCard.

Zero Hedge: 

• When (And Why) Did QEternity Begin? (graph)

• Eric Holder Slams "Stand Your Ground" Laws, Claims Self-Defense May "Sow Dangerous Conflict".

• About That "Incomes Are Rising" Claim... (graphs)

• The Fed Is The Problem, Not The Solution: The Complete Walk-Through.

• Goldman's 5 Questions For Bernanke.

• Just Four China Charts. 

• Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Gold.

Business Insider: 

• New Rolling Stone Cover Depicts Alleged Boston Bomber As Dreamy Teen Heartthrob. 

• This Scary Interactive Map Shows What Happens If A Nuke Explodes In Your Neighborhood.

• Brazilian President's Popularity Takes Breathtaking Nosedive — And That Should Worry Investors.

• Mark Zuckerberg Runs A Giant Spy Machine In Palo Alto, California. Mark Zuckerberg runs a giant spy machine in Palo Alto, California. He wasn’t the first to build one, but his was the best, and every day hundreds of thousands of people upload the most intimate details of their lives to the Internet. The real coup wasn’t hoodwinking the public into revealing their thoughts, closest associates, and exact geographic coordinates at any given time. Rather, it was getting the public to volunteer that information. Then he turned off the privacy settings.

New York Times:

• Cordray Confirmed as Head of Financial Watchdog, After Long Wait. The Senate’s confirmation of Richard Cordray on Tuesday as the first permanent director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cements a new era of intensive oversight of companies that lend money to consumers.

HeraldOnline.com: 

• Fitch Downgrades Pennsylvania's GO Bonds to 'AA' from 'AA+'; Outlook Remains Negative. Fitch Ratings has downgraded the rating on $10.9 billion in outstanding commonwealth of Pennsylvania general obligation (GO) bonds to 'AA' from 'AA+'. In addition, Fitch downgrades the ratings on bonds supported by commonwealth appropriations that are listed at the end of this release. The ratings on the appropriation-backed securities are linked to the commonwealth's GO rating. The Rating Outlook is Negative.
  
  
  Read more here: http://www.heraldonline.com/2013/07/16/5026437/fitch-downgrades-pennsylvanias.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.heraldonline.com/2013/07/16/5026437/fitch-downgrades-pennsylvanias.html#storylink=cpy

Reuters:

• Analysis: Top fund managers were blindsided by U.S. bond market carnage. The plunge in the U.S. Treasuries market in the past couple of months may well have been one of the most well-telegraphed reversals in financial market history. Top money managers and investment strategists had warned the U.S. Federal Reserve was likely to soon begin paring back its bond-buying stimulus if U.S. economic data remained robust.

• US Senate to hear on bank ownership of commodities storage. A U.S. Senate committee will hold a hearing next week on whether banks should control physical storage for commodities, signalling lawmakers may be toughening their stance on the controversial but lucrative business for giant Wall Street firms. 

• BOJ June minutes: some members sought steps to calm bond markets. Some Bank of Japan board members sought to supply longer-dated fixed-rate funds in market operations to curb excessive interest rate volatility but the proposal was dropped on opposition by policymakers who feared it could be misinterpreted by markets, minutes of the June rate review meeting showed on Wednesday. 

• Passengers eye legal action against Boeing, Asiana over crash. Asiana Airlines Inc and Boeing Co are facing potential legal action by passengers who were on board a flight that crashed in San Francisco on July 6, killing three and injuring more than 180, according to U.S. court filings. 

• Initial takeover bids for Onyx seen as soon as this week-sources. Initial takeover bids for Onyx seen as soon as this week-sources.

• Rio Tinto(RIO) keeps big iron ore plans on track, despite China cooling. Rio Tinto is pushing ahead with plans to boost iron ore output over the next 18 months, as it counts on demand from Chinese steel mills holding up, but the miner is assessing if it can meet the target using existing mines to control costs. The plans show global miners such as Rio Tinto and rival BHP Billiton, while focused on costs, feel the risks to the iron ore operations from a slowing Chinese economy are manageable and that their low operating costs will keep the business profitable even in a downturn. Rio Tinto said on Tuesday infrastructure work was "currently underway" to expand its iron ore production capability to 360 million tonnes a year by the end of 2014, estimated by analysts to carry a $5 billion price tag.

• CSX(CSX) posts bigger quarterly profit as intermodal stays strong. CSX Corp posted a bigger quarterly profit as the company continues to see benefits from its intermodal business, offsetting a fall-off in coal volumes.

Financial Times: 

• Return of the blueblood macro hedge funds. It used to be said that you could get on in the world of macro trading – betting on the ups and downs of the global economy – by following two simple rules: the trend is your friend and don’t fight the Fed. For much of the past few years though, with markets veering between panic and central bank-backed calm, it has seemed at times like those two maxims have been tugging in opposite directions.

• Ford(F) lashes out at Japan’s entry into TPP trade talks. The big three Detroit-based automakers and other US manufacturers who feel they are being damaged by what they see as Japan’s deliberate weakening of the yen could emerge as a hotbed of political opposition to the TPP and push their view in Congress.

Telegraph:

• Ban on selling new Mercedes in EU moves closer. Some new vehicles produced by German carmaker Daimler cannot be sold or registered in the European Union because they contain a banned coolant, the European Commission has said. 

• OECD fears jobless threat to social fabric as Europe left behind. The unemployment gap between the US and eurozone states will reach the highest levels in modern history next year, according to a report by the OECD.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

• Greece Faces Up to EU10b Funding Gap. Greece faces funding gap of as much as EU10b, citing European Commission officials. Euro area countries will have to decide whether to increase financing for Greece after summer break. Plan for how to fill funding gap won't be detailed before German elections in September.

Commercial Times:

• Apple(AAPL) May Delay iPhone 5s Introduction to End 2013. The introduction of iPhone 5s may be delayed from original schedule of September or October after Apple changes design to bigger 4.3-inch retina display, citing people in the semiconductor industry. New version of cheaper iPhone is expected by end of 3Q as chips used in this model have started shipment in June. TSMC may deliver chips mad for iPhone 5s in August.
  

China Daily:

• GSK Case Shows China Foreign Cos. Need Scrutiny. GSK's bribery incident in China shows the complications of fighting commercial corruption, citing a commentary by Zhong Sheng. Zhong Sheng is a homonym in Chinese for "voice of China". China should boost supervision of foreign companies, the commentary said.

Xinhua:

• China Police Detain 4 for Spreading Debt Rumors. Police in the northern Chinese county of Shenmu in Shaanxi province detained 4 people on spreading rumors of deteriorating local economy and local "triangular" debt problem, according to a report posted on the government's website. Online rumors saying fiscal deficit will force the county to halt free medical and education policies are false, the report said.

Shanghai Securities News:

• Ex-NPC Official Suggests China Cut GDP Target. He Keng, former deputy director of the Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress, suggests China cut its economic growth target to the "lower limit" of 7%. The target cut could send a message to local governments asking them to make efforts to improve quality and efficiency of economy, He said. China's economy won't have big problems as long as there's no financial crisis, citing He.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50%. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.50 -3.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 106.25 -1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GWW)/2.96

• (MTB)/2.11

• (USB)/.76

• (NTRS)/.82

• (PNC)/1.63

• (ABT)/.44

• (MAT)/.32

• (BK)/.57

• (BAC)/.26

• (STJ)/.94

• (INTC)/.39

• (SNDK)/.93

• (XLNX)/.47

• (KMP)/.60

• (IBM)/3.77

• (AXP)/1.22

• (EBAY)/.63

• (STLD)/.14

• (WYNN)/1.58

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for June are estimated to rise to 960K versus 914K in May.

• Building Permits for June are estimated to rise to 1000K versus 974K in May.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a -9,874,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +1,500,000 barrels the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.4% versus a +.2% gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Raskin speaking, German 10Y auction, BoC rate decision and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer staple and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Earnings Concerns, Biotech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.54 +5.44%
• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.04 +.03%
• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 -1.01%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.91 +4.43%

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -3.67%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +20.48%

• NYSE Arms .99 +6.33% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.91 +1.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 160.22 +1.47%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 97.29 +1.35%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 300.10 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -1.25 bps

• TED Spread 24.0 -.75 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 +.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 221.0 -1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $129.0/Metric Tonne +1.65%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.30 +9.7 points
• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -36.0 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +4 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -9 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.84%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.46% 2) I-Banking -1.35% 3) Biotech -1.28%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TSLA, ADUS, MPC, DVA, GTN, IBN, TVL, TLK, TI, FMX, KO, PFLT, EQM, KOP, LQDT, HSII, CSH, AFOP, XONE, ANIK, SMP, ADUS, BERY, QIHU, EXLP, SSYS, DFRG, STMP, BWLD, MOS, INGR, FDML and CHUY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLY 2) TSLA 3) EWY 4) AKAM 5) MOS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DVA 2) SMP 3) BWLD 4) TSL 5) DFRG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume