Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as high energy prices, emerging markets unrest and global growth fears offset central bank hopes, lower long-term rates and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,709.67 +1.07%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,709.67 +1.07%

• DJIA 15,658.36 +.64%

• NASDAQ 3,689.58 +2.11%

• Russell 2000 1,059.86 +1.08%

• S&P 500 High Beta 26.85 +2.83%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 451.50 +1.41%

• Russell 1000 Growth 780.88 +1.60%

• Russell 1000 Value 874.51 +.87%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,051.24 +1.15%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,293.71 +2.98%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 797.52 +1.81%

• Transports 6,651.69 +2.76%

• Utilities 508.47 +.81%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 99.69 +1.78%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.51 -.52%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,130.08 +.57%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 946.13 +.12%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 192,451 -.13%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 895 +617

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.68 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 362,941 +.52%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,837,823 -1.49%

• Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%

• OEX Put/Call 2.46 +151.02%

• ISE Sentiment 134.0 +38.14%

• NYSE Arms .99 +2.06%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -5.82%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.79 -6.32%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.63 +1.69%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.58 +5.16%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,536.25 -.47%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.612 Trillion -.37%

• AAII % Bulls 35.6 -21.1%

• AAII % Bears 25.0 +10.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 283.77 -.24%

• Crude Oil 106.94 +2.23%

• Reformulated Gasoline 299.47 -.66%

• Natural Gas 3.35 -5.98%

• Heating Oil 307.14 +1.99%

• Gold 1,310.30 -1.75%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 186.84 +1.54%

• Copper 317.25 +2.21%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 324.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.10 USD/Ton -1.88%

• Lumber 307.40 -4.62%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,384.22 -1.16%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.9% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0556 unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 117.16 -1.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.90 +14.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -30.80 -.8 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 42.0% chance of no change, 58.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/18

• US Dollar Index 81.91 +.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.01 +.72%

• Yield Curve 230.0 +5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.60% +4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.529 Trillion -.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.83 -5.1%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 168.0 -2.18%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 83.59 -6.08%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 228.71 +2.03%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 112.0 +3.7%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 795.0 unch.

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 385.0 +4 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% +6 basis points

• TED Spread 23.50 -1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.49 -4.97%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 135.0 -8.27%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 295.92 -1.93%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 115.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.570 Trillion +1.31%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 984.90 -1.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 341,300 -4,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.39% +8 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 494.40 -3.68%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.0 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.63/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,065 -1.57%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,005.28 -7.57%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 256,379 +1.17%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.8%

• Homebuilders +3.6%

• Networking +3.2%

• Education +3.2%

• Road & Rail +2.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -2.1% 

• Coal -2.3%

• REITs -3.6%

• Agriculture -4.6%

• Gold & Silver -6.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (32)

• VNDA, BKR, YELP, VHI, QCOR, EHTH, MAKO, ISIL, RRD, TRLA, ALR, OSK, RATE, STAA, GDOT, EGN, MWIV, DTLK, FB, CVLT, INVN, CGNX, LOCK, BWLD, DIN, BYD, MA, TPX, CF, EXAM, SKS and CPWR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)

• HAE, CUZ, VSH, DLR, NATI, HTZ, ISSI, RBC, MNTA, SBH, HGR, ADC, COH, HMA, OPTR, XYL, RVBD, INT, GPX, NUVA, IRG, BJRI, JCP, CMRX, WTW, CMP, BGFV, MOS, JIVE and IPI

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Profit-Taking, Earnings Concerns, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.14 -6.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.07 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.61 -2.63%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.09 -.38%

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +65.12%

• Total Put/Call .90 +5.88%

• NYSE Arms .97 +116.84% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.96 -1.83%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.0 -.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.59 -1.81%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.59 -3.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 unch.

• TED Spread 23.50 +.5 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +.25 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1 bp

• Yield Curve 230.0 -8 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $130.10/Metric Tonne +.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.90 -3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -30.80 -6.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -4 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -76 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.47%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.30% 2) Coal -1.21% 3) Semis -1.08%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TI, CBEY, IBN, TWC, LBTYA, KO, ONNN, RTEC, BBG, AREX, CVX, LRY, WTW, BYD, SQI, AVG, WPRT, WPZ, BTH, FEIC, VCLK, MRC, UAM, LF, GNRC, OPEN, SIRO, TWC, IT, TEAR, VPRT, ETN, BAX, LGND and PRO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HYG 2) CVC 3) HON 4) XOP 5) LNKD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VCLK 2) LGND 3) ANR 4) WTW 5) CVX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.20%

Sector Outperformers:

• Homebuilders +1.56% 2) Gold & Silver +.49% 3) Telecom +.19%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVC, VIAB, HK, SREV, DELL, EAT, SA, ELLI, MELI, ACTV, YELP, YY, IMMR, LNKD, VIAB, SEE and MYL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AIG 2) SYNA 3) RTN 4) NOC 5) HK
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CUB 2) AN 3) BA 4) DELL 5) ETN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume