Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • IMF Cuts Global Outlook. Growth worldwide will be 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said in a report released today in Washington, compared with July predictions of 3.1 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent for 2014. It sees emerging economies growing 4.5 percent this year, 0.5 percentage point less than three months ago, as projections were reduced for China, Mexico, India and Russia. “Advanced economies are gradually strengthening” while “growth in emerging-market economies has slowed,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard wrote in a foreword to the World Economic Outlook report. “This confluence is leading to tensions, with emerging-market economies facing the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions." 
  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Weak Recovery. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 0.3 percent from July, when they fell a revised 1.9 percent, the Economy Ministry said today in an e-mailed statement. Economists forecast an increase of 1.1 percent in August, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey
  • European Stocks Fall. Telecom Italia SpA (TIT) lost 1.8 percent as Standard & Poor’s said it may downgrade the phone company’s debt to non-investment grade. TGS Nopec Geophysical Co. (TGS) tumbled the most in two years after reducing its revenue forecast. Celesio AG jumped to a three-year high on a report that McKesson Corp. may buy the German drug distributor. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.8 percent to 306.84 at the close in London.
  • Treasury Bill Rates Surge to Highest Since 2008 at 1-Month Sale. Treasury one-month bill rates surged the highest since 2008 and yields on three-year notes rose as the U.S. prepares to sell $30 billion of the debt in the first auction of coupon securities since the government shutdown. The Treasury sold $30 billion of one-month bills today at a rate of 0.35 percent, the highest since 2008 and more than double the rate on comparable one-month securities yesterday. Rates on Treasury bills due on Oct. 24 climbed to the highest since they were issued in April, after being negative as recently as Sept. 27.
  • Plosser Says Delay in QE Tapering Undermined Fed’s Credibility. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, an opponent of additional stimulus, said the Fed’s decision last month not to taper its asset purchases undermined the central bank’s credibility. “To delay tapering of our current asset purchase scheme without clear and significant departures from prior guidelines suggested the FOMC was changing the goalposts and deviating from June’s forward guidance,” Plosser said today in a speech in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, referring to the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He doesn’t vote on the panel this year. “This undermines the credibility of the committee and reduces the effectiveness of forward guidance as a policy tool.” The Fed’s decision to press on with stimulus “contributes to additional uncertainty regarding the future course of monetary policy” and may be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the economic outlook, Plosser said. “The decision not to begin tapering our asset purchases was also read in some quarters as a sign that the FOMC had become much less confident that growth would be sustained in the manner the Committee envisioned in June,” Plosser said. “Thus, we undermined our own credibility as well as the public’s confidence in the economy.” “These were not the messages that I wanted to send,” Plosser said in his remarks to the Greater Johnstown Cambria County Chamber of Commerce. “Thus, I disagreed with the decision not to go forward with a modest reduction in the pace of our asset purchases.Fed presidents rotate voting on monetary policy with Plosser voting next year.  
  • Fed’s Pianalto Says Fed Should Be ‘Cautious’ in Bond Buying. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto, who has supported record Fed stimulus, said she favored a reduction in bond buying last month because of the potential costs of the program. “While to date the risks have mostly remained theoretical, I remain convinced that we need to be cautious in our expansion of asset purchases,” said Pianalto, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year and plans to retire early next year. “For me the improvement in labor markets seemed substantial enough to support a scaling back of the asset-purchase program at last month’s” policy meeting, she said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Parties Diverge in Bid to Break Fiscal Deadlock. House Republicans Urge Budget Talks; Senate Democrats Plan Debt-Limit Vote. The House and Senate headed down separate tracks Tuesday in their efforts to break the stalemate that has led to a week-old partial government shutdown. House Republicans, stepping up calls for face-to-face negotiations, planned to pass legislation that would set a framework for wide-ranging budget talks. Senate Democrats were planning a vote this week to extend the country's borrowing authority through 2014, after next year's midterm elections. The efforts lacked a key component for ending the budget stalemate: endorsement from the other side
Fox News:
MarketWatch:
  • NFIB small-business optimism eases in September. Small-business sentiment edged lower in September on a big drop in the percentage who expect the economy to improve, the National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday. The NFIB small-business optimism index fell to 93.9 from a corrected 94.1 in August.
CNBC:
  • No end in sight for debt addiction: Paul Singer. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer holds a pessimistic view of the global financial system, saying he believes the Federal Reserve easing back on its asset-purchasing program is "off the table" even though investor confidence could sour quickly.
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
  • Dozens of Allegations Against Warren Buffett’s Company. (video) The Scripps National investigative team has uncovered dozens of allegations that a company that is part of Warren Buffett’s empire intentionally delays paying insurance money to victims of asbestos and toxic health hazards.
Business Insider:
Institutional Investor: 
Real Clear Politics:
Reuters:
  • Obama phones Boehner, repeats he won't negotiate - Boehner aide. President Barack Obama called Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday about the government shutdown and a looming deadline to raise the debt ceiling, and restated his position that he would not negotiate, said a spokesman for Boehner, the top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • Euro zone bonds wilt as U.S. deadlock drags on, Portugal bucks trend. Spanish and Italian bond yields rose on Tuesday along with almost all other European sovereigns, as the U.S. budget stalemate and looming debt deadline continued to weigh on bond markets worldwide. Plans in both Rome and Madrid to sell bonds via syndication also put their debt under pressure, halting the recent relief rally following last week's confidence vote in Italy for Enrico Letta's government. Italy plans to issue its first ever seven-year bond on Wednesday, and Spain will also offer investors the first chance to get 30-year paper since 2009. Spanish 10-year yields ended up 10 basis points at 4.31 percent while their Italian equivalents were 6 bps higher at 4.35 percent.
  • Investors take profits in high-flying Nasdaq names. Shares of some of the Nasdaq's strongest performers this year tumbled on Tuesday as investors took profits in high-flying names amid growing uncertainty over the impasse in Washington. Companies in the technology sector were the hardest hit, with Yahoo Inc, TripAdvisor Inc and Netflix Inc all among the day's biggest losers, but investor favorite Tesla Motor Inc also dropped in heavy volume. The Nasdaq Composite Index was trading down 1.3 percent midday.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.23%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -3.82% 2) Internet -2.60% 3) Alt Energy -2.53%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • JMBA, GWPH, SOCL, BITA, ACAD, SSW, INSY, MZOR, CLNE, LCI, RH, NJ, SWIR, CIE, PHH, ANGI, JAZZ, LNKD, CGIX, WWWW, NQ, CLDX, CVRR, FENG, SPLK, DECK, BLOX, NAV, CTXS, PKT, PCLN, GSVC, MAS, CIE, YHOO, RHT, LCI, SSNC, BMRN, FB, AMBA, AFOP, ALNY, ABFS, TRLA, ARIA, YELP, OMER, NOW, NPSP and EXAS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWJ 2) IBB 3) PAYX 4) XLV 5) EWW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LNKD 2) TRIP 3) PCLN 4) PBPB 5) ACT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.73%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +.97% 2) Hospitals +.12% 3) Restaurants -.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MCK, TASR, ISRG, MNST and OUTR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ATLS 2) XONE 3) PHH 4) XOMA 5) ACAD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NFLX 2) AMZN 3) MSFT 4) A 5) JCP
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Asia’s Crisis of Leadership. The day Asian leaders have long dreaded is here: The era of rapid growth is over. It has taken five years, but the fallout from what Asians call the “Lehman shock” is finally hitting gross domestic product and living standards. These risks are the talk of Bali, where Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation nations are mulling what to do about a world where “risks remain tilted to the downside.”
  • Japan Current-Account Surplus Plunges to Record August Low. Japan’s current-account surplus unexpectedly shrank to a record low for an August, underscoring drags on the economy as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to drive an exit from 15 years of deflation. The surplus fell 64 percent from a year earlier to 161.5 billion yen ($1.7 billion), as overseas income dropped for the first time in nine months and imports exceeded exports, a Ministry of Finance report showed in Tokyo. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists was for a 520 billion yen surplus. 
  • Asian Stocks Swing on Utilities, Telecom Services. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark index trading near a three-week low, as telecommunication shares dropped while utilities advanced. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), the owner of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, rebounded 5.9 percent after declining 20 percent over the past five days. Cokal Ltd., a coal mine developer, slumped 22 percent in Sydney after saying takeover talks with Blumont Group Ltd. were affected by a record plunge in the buyer’s stock. Blumont soared 62 percent today in Singapore after sinking 85 percent yesterday. Rakuten Inc., which operates a Japanese online mall, fell 12 percent after Yahoo Japan Corp. said it would eliminate vendor fees for its shopping and auction sites. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3 percent to 138.25 as of 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo after falling as much as 0.3 percent.
  • Rebar Drops to Lowest in Three Months on China Demand Concern. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell to a three-month low on concern Chinese demand may recede during winter without more government-funded infrastructure projects. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 1 percent to 3,550 yuan ($580) a metric ton, the lowest since July 2, and traded at 3,555 yuan at 9:51 a.m. local time.
  • Vale(VALE) Sees Iron-Ore Market Oversupplied From 2015 on New Capacity. Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, said supply of the steelmaking raw material is expected to grow faster than demand, reducing support for future increases in price. Iron-ore producers may have between 5 percent and 6 percent more capacity than demand by as early as 2018 as China steel consumption slows and companies boost output, Vale’s head of Ferrous & Strategy Jose Carlos Martins told reporters in Sao Paulo yesterday. 
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Tense Negotiations Inside the Fed Produced Muddled Signals to Markets. The Federal Reserve's decision to continue one of the most audacious experiments in monetary history—an $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program designed to boost growth—followed six months of tense negotiations inside the central bank, and a stumbling effort to let the public know what was going on. A small group of Fed officials has been privately pushing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to plan an exit from his signature program, said several people familiar with the closed-door deliberations. But glimmers of a weakening economy prompted the Fed in September to keep the program going—surprising markets primed by months of central-bank suggestions that a wind-down was nearing.
  • Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue. Confidential Documents Reveal Deep Divisions at IMF Over 2010 Greek Bailout. The International Monetary Fund proceeded with its record 2010 bailout of Greece despite deep internal divisions over whether it would work, according to confidential documents that contradict the fund's public statements.
Fox News: 
  • Reid, Boehner escalate feud as Senate Dems quietly craft proposal to raise debt limit. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker John Boehner escalated their feud over the budget impasse on Monday, as Senate Democrats quietly crafted no-strings-attached legislation to raise the nation's debt limit. The move by Democrats comes amid Republican insistence that any increase must include concessions on such fiscal matters as entitlement reform or other spending cuts. The Senate proposal attempts to eliminate such fights until after the 2014 elections.
MarketWatch.com: 
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
  • Buffett's Bailout Bonanza. The following chart shows just how well one can do with a few billion in your pocket and an ear for what the Government will do.
ValueWalk:
Reuters: 
  • Elite U.S. team questions seized al Qaeda leader on Navy ship. An elite American interrogation team is questioning the senior al Qaeda figure who was seized by special operations forces in Libya and then whisked onto a Navy ship in the Mediterranean Sea, U.S. officials said on Monday. Nazih al-Ragye, better known by the cover name Abu Anas al-Liby, is being held aboard the USS San Antonio, an amphibious transport dock ship, the officials said. He is being questioned by the U.S. High Value Detainee Interrogation Group, an inter-agency unit created in 2009 and housed in the FBI's National Security Branch. The group specializes in garnering information from terrorism suspects to prevent planned attacks.
  • Norilsk says will take years to deplete nickel stocks, boost prices. Nickel prices are unlikely to recover for another two years as producers struggle with "unprecedented" low prices and a 100,000-tonne surplus, an executive at Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) said on Monday. One-third of global output, about 600,000 tonnes, is unprofitable at current prices, which have been hammered by weak demand and big inventories, particularly in China, head of strategic marketing Anton Berlin said in a telephone interview.
Sankei:
  • Abe Cabinet Support Rate Drops 6.6 Points to 58.6%. Support rate for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet falls 6.6 points m/m to 58.6%, according to a poll conducted by Sankei. Disapproval rate rises to 25.7% from 21.1% in Sept. 62.9% of interviewees oppose raising the sales tax to 10% in Oct. 2015; 28.6% supports.
China Securities Journal:
  • Beijing, Shanghai Home Sales Rise During Holiday. Beijing new home sales from Oct. 1-6 almost doubled from a year earlier, citing the municipality's commission of housing and urban-rural development.
Evening Recommendations 
Wells Fargo:
  • Raised (PG) to Outperform.  
  • Raised (AVP) to Outperform.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 117.25 +1.75 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (WWW)/1.03
  • (AA)/.05
  • (YUM)/.92
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September is estimated to rise to 94.3 versus 94.0 in August.
10:00 am EST
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October is estimated to fall to 44.0 versus 46.0 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Pianalto speaking, German Factory Orders, BoJ Meeting Minutes, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, (LUX) investors day, (AGU) investor day, (SFE) investor day, (ACN) analyst conference, (HAIN) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Monday, October 07, 2013

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Debt Ceiling/Govt Shutdown Worries, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Financial/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.69 +11.65%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.18 -.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.77 -.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.87 +12.35%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -13.04%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +3.45%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +24.03% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.95 +2.94%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.88 -.03%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.0 -4.43%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 285.43 -.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 228.0 -4 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.80 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +32 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
  • Hedge Funds Expand Bets With Most Junk Since ’08: Credit Markets. Hedge funds have amassed the greatest share of the $1.2 trillion U.S. junk-bond market since the credit crisis, raising concern bets with borrowed cash will accelerate losses when the Federal Reserve stops printing record amounts of money. The funds, which typically use leverage to bolster returns, hold as much as 23 percent of outstanding dollar-denominated high-yield bonds, from as much as 18 percent last year and the highest since 2008, according to Barclays Plc. Credit hedge funds have boosted assets by 89 percent since 2008, outpacing the 66 percent growth of the junk market, data from Hedge Fund Research Inc. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. 
  • European Stocks Drop. Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) retreated 1.2 percent as its chief executive officer told a newspaper that the slowdown in Chinese luxury-goods sales may continue. SAP AG lost 2.2 percent, contributing the most to a decline by a gauge of technology stocks, after a report that the German software maker has held talks with BlackBerry Ltd. Solvay SA (SOLB) climbed 1.2 percent after agreeing to buy U.S. chemicals maker Chemlogics Group LLC. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.2 percent to 309.18 at the close in London, after earlier falling as much as 1 percent.
  • New American Economy Leaves Behind World Consumer. The rising American economy isn’t lifting all boats -- and may even sink some. A healthier U.S. even could come at the expense of emerging markets if it turns into more of a competitor than consumer by boosting manufacturing.
  • Egypt Violence Spreads as Security Forces Attacked. A shooting and separate explosion targeting Egyptian security forces left at least nine dead a day after 51 people were killed in police clashes with Islamists that fueled the turmoil threatening the nation’s political transition. Five soldiers and one officer were killed when gunmen opened fire on them near the Suez Canal city of Ismailiya, according to Moustafa Younes, a police officer in the province. Three policemen were killed in a blast outside a security installation in Southern Sinai, the Interior Ministry said. Mohamed Darwish, an officer at provincial security directorate, described it as a car bomb. 
  • Obamacare Seen Straining Clinics With Medicaid Expansion. 43 percent of doctors in California and a third nationwide won’t take new Medicaid patients. Low pay is one of the reasons. A shortage of Medicaid doctors will leave many newly insured seeking care in a two-tiered system in which they will have access to less experienced medical staff, longer travel times to find a doctor who accepts Medicaid, and be subject to appointment waiting times sometimes weeks longer than those with private coverage.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
  • U.S. venture funds raise $4.1 billion, down 18 percent. U.S. venture capital firms raised $4.1 billion last quarter, down almost 18 percent from the same period in 2012, according to data from the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters released on Monday. 
  • Frontier markets lure investors chasing yield. After a year of mediocre returns from emerging markets, many investors are searching for yield in so-called frontier markets in hopes that low prices and potential growth will outweigh the risks in little-developed lands.
Telegraph:
Les Echos:
  • Burberry CEO Says China Slowdown More Than Temporary. Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts says China slowdown in sales of luxury products may be more than just a "temporary accident" and may constitute a new market trend, according to an interview.