Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Crisis, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +14.29%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.30 -.84%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.10 +4.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.20 +3.31%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -.91%

• Total Put/Call .90 +9.76%

• NYSE Arms 1.63 +46.45% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.10 +2.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.39 +6.82%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 51.01 -2.52%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.94 +1.91%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 320.52 +4.80%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.99 -1.36%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1 basis point

• Yield Curve 229.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.70/Metric Tonne -.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.30 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.70 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Crisis Intensifies as Russia Denies Navy Ultimatum Claim. Ukraine said Russia’s navy ordered two of its ships in Crimea to surrender amid the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. A Russian Defense Ministry official denied the claim. Russia’s Black Sea fleet gave the ships, located near the port of Sevastopol, until 5 a.m. to give up weapons and capitulate, Oleksiy Kirchkov, deputy commander of the Ternopil, told Ukraine’s Channel 5 by phone. The Russian official, who asked not to be named, called Ukraine’s claim disinformation. Western diplomats are seeking to calm tensions in Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arriving in Kiev today.

• Russia Raises Main Rate as Ukraine Crisis Threatens Economy. Russia raised its main interest rate the most since 1998 as the currency plunged to a record and investors pulled money from the stock market on concern that President Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine. The one-week auction rate, the benchmark introduced in September, was increased temporarily to 7 percent from 5.5 percent, the Bank Rossii said on its website today. The regulator also temporarily raised its other major lending rates by 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points.

• Russia Gas Threat Shows Putin Using Pipes to Press Ukraine. OAO Gazprom’s threat to end natural gas discounts for Ukraine adds to the financial burden on the near-bankrupt government in Kiev and makes Europe’s energy supply part of the escalating crisis. Russia’s gas-export monopoly said on March 1 it may end last year’s agreement to supply Ukraine at a cheaper rate unless it’s paid $1.55 billion owed for fuel. It’s the first time since the overthrow of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych last month that Russia has directly used its position as Ukraine’s dominant energy supplier to pressure the new regime.

• China Property Trust Defaults Forecast as Risks Flagged. China’s property trusts, grappling with repayments equivalent to the size of Puerto Rico’s economy, face rising default risks as a former central bank adviser dubs real estate the biggest threat to the economy. The trust funds must repay 634 billion yuan ($103 billion) of debt this year, up 50 percent from 2013, according to estimates from Haitong Securities Co., the nation’s second-biggest brokerage.

• Deadly China Attack Gives Xi Impetus to Tighten Grip on Security. China’s Communist leader Xi Jinping, already emerging more powerful than his predecessor, has fresh impetus to tighten his hold on domestic security after an outcry over an knife attack on civilians three days ago. The Weibo microblogging service lit up with outrage in the wake of the stabbing deaths of 29 people, many of them migrant workers, at a train station in the southern city of Kunming -- a shock officials blamed on members of the ethnic Uighur separatist movement. One such posting, said: “It isn’t possible to negotiate with you or make any concessions,” from “Drowning Fish.”

• Russian Stocks Tumble Most in Five Years as Putin Deploys Troops. Russian stocks slid the most in more than five years after President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to Crimea, spurring prospects of sanctions against the country. The benchmark Micex Index (INDEXCF) of equities tumbled 11 percent to 1,288.81 by the close in Moscow, their biggest loss since November 2008. The dollar-denominated RTS Index (RTSI$) slumped 12 percent to 1,115.21, entering a bear market. OAO Gazprom, the gas-export monopoly, lost 14 percent to 121.04 rubles, while OAO Sberbank, the nation’s biggest lender, retreated 15 percent to 77.35 rubles. Miner OAO Mechel (MTLR) plunged 23 percent to 31.2 rubles. Ukraine warned that Putin’s military is strengthening its presence in Crimea as it mobilized the army and called for foreign observers amid the worst standoff between the East and West since the Cold War ended.

• Emerging-Market Stocks Sink on Ukraine as Russia Slumps. Emerging-market stocks fell the most in a month as Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine spurred the worst selloff in the Micex Index (INDEXCF) since 2008 and sent the ruble tumbling even as the central bank raised interest rates. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.5 percent to 951.63 at 10:09 a.m. in New York.

• Europe Stocks Fall After Six-Year High on Ukraine Tension. European stocks plunged the most in more than a month, retreating after reaching a six-year high last week, as investor concern increased that the escalating tension in Ukraine will hurt corporate earnings. Companies with exposure to Russia led losses, with Carlsberg (CARLB) A/S, owner of the country’s biggest brewer, falling the most in more than a year. Roche Holding AG slipped the most since August 2011 after a data monitoring committee advised it to end a trial of a lung-cancer drug. Bouygues SA slid 1.8 percent after a report that the French construction and telecommunications company may bid for Vivendi SA’s phone carrier SFR. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 2.3 percent to 330.36 at the close of trading, its biggest decline since Jan. 24.

• Yen Hits 1-Month High as Putin Sparks Haven Asset Demand. “We start the week under pressure that built up over the weekend, thanks to aggressive rhetoric and action by Russian Prime Minister Putin,” Christopher Vecchio, a currency analyst in New York at DailyFX, wrote in a note to clients. “The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have filled the void as safe havens, while the U.S. dollar is hardly enthusiastic on the day.” The yen climbed 0.4 percent to 101.42 per dollar as of 12:52 p.m. in New York after reaching 101.20, the strongest level since Feb. 5. It added 0.7 percent to 139.54 per euro, reaching the biggest increase since Jan. 31. The 18-nation currency slid 0.3 percent to $1.3760.

• WTI Crude Rises to Five-Month High on Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate crude surged to a five-month high as Brent advanced amid escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter. WTI climbed as much as 2.6 percent. Ukraine mobilized its army reserves as Russia seized control of the Black Sea region of Crimea. 

• Gold Climbs to Four-Month High as Ukraine Tension Boosts Demand. Gold futures for April delivery rose 2.4 percent to $1,353.80 an ounce at 11:48 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices touched $1,355, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 30. Silver for May delivery rose 1.7 percent to $21.61 an ounce on the Comex.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage.

• Japan Plans 3,000-Troop Unit for Island Defense. Japan plans to establish a 3,000-troop unit specializing in amphibious operations "as swiftly as possible," the defense minister said, publicly outlining details of the new unit for the first time as tensions with China grow over disputed islands. Japan has undertaken an ambitious project to create a force similar to the U.S. Marine Corps, and Japanese Self-Defense Force Troops have been receiving increasingly frequent training from their U.S. counterparts in the past few years.

CNBC:

• I'd vote 'yes' on Keystone pipeline: Warren Buffett. (video)

• Disney ends funding to Boy Scouts over gay policy. The Walt Disney Company will cut funding to the Boy Scouts of America beginning in 2015 because of a policy that bans gay adult leaders in the organization.

• 'Nazis' & 'Hypocrites': What Russia's saying on TV.

ZeroHedge:

• GM(GM) Channel Stuffing Rises To All Time High. (graph) 

• ISM Manufacturing Beats; Hovers Near 8-Month Lows. (graph)  

• IMF Gets A Warm Welcome In Spain. 

• Who Gets Thrown Under The Bus In The Next Financial Crisis? 

• Warren Buffett Warns Minimum Wage Hike Could Hurt Jobs. (video) 

• Former Central Banker Admits "[They] Are Making It Up As They Go Along".

Business Insider: 

• Russia's Power Play Risks A Full-Scale Investor Exodus. 

• This Is The Gas Pipeline Map That Shows Why The Crisis In Ukraine Affects All Of Europe.

• Putin Has Posed A Risky Dilemma For The West — China And Iran Are Watching Closely.

• Washington Post Editorial Destroys Obama's Foreign Policy As 'Based On Fantasy'.

• CHART OF THE DAY: Look How The Market Has Lost Faith In Ukraine.

Les Echos:

• Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards says emerging markets slowdown will affect Europe, according to an interview. Germany is especially at risk, he said. Emerging markets will devalue their currencies, according to Edwards.

The Globe and Mail:

• Pimco sees 30% slump in Canada’s housing market in time, cuts holdings. The world’s biggest bond fund is taking a decidedly grim view of Canada’s housing market, projecting a marked decline over the next few years and slashing its holdings in the country.

Al Arabiya:

• ‘Boko Haram attack’ in northeast Nigeria kills 29, says senator. Suspected Islamist insurgents killed 29 people in Nigeria’s embattled northeast, an area senator said Monday, putting 2014 on track to become the bloodiest year yet in Boko Haram’s rebellion.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.50%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.21% 2) I-Banks -2.03% 3) Software -1.87%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• LXFT, YNDX, AKRX, EPAM, MBT, PRO, UIL, ZIV, JKS, BT, UBS, BIB, VHC, HSC, OEH, TR, NLNK, QIWI, ZU, PDFS, QGEN, PANW, CTB, ROVI, WAC, DWA, ACM, ADSK, CEMP, AMBC, ALKS, WDAY, RCL, AHT, UIL, SPLK, DRI, WETF, PANW UBNT, HSC, GEVA, CLDX and DOV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MDR 2) TXN 3) ITB 4) CZR 5) AMD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DRI 2) CZR 3) ADSK 4) AAL 5) PNC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.86% 2) Tobacco -.31% 3) Defense -.52%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PERI, DRC, LO, DEPO, QCOR and TDS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) EXAS 3) LO 4) DNDN 5) SYMC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BA 2) EBAY 3) FDX 4) RTN 5) PEP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Tells Russia Invasion Means War as Putin Makes Plans. Ukraine told Russia that a military invasion would be an act of war following a vote by lawmakers in Moscow to give President Vladimir Putin the right to send troops after pro-Russian forces seized control of Crimea. Ukraine, which put its military on full combat alert, is also mobilizing the reserves, Andriy Parubiy, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said in a briefing today. He urged the U.S. and U.K. to defend the country’s territorial integrity. Putin told U.S. President Barack Obama that Russia may act if violence spreads to Russian-speaking regions, the Kremlin said in a statement. “The Ukrainian state will protect all citizens no matter in which region they live in and which language they speak or which church they attend,” acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said. 

• Putin Grab for Crimea Shows Trail of Warning Signs West Ignored. Putin’s been cautioning the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states for at least six years not to impede Russian interests in Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, home to its largest overseas naval base.

• Property Trust Defaults Forecast as Risks Flagged: China Credit. China's property trusts, grappling with repayments equivalent to the size of Puerto Rico's economy, face rising default risks as a former central bank adviser dubs real estate the biggest threat to the economy. The trust funds must repay 634 billion yuan ($103 billion) of debt this year, up 50% from 2013, according to estimates from Haitong Securities Co., the nation's second-biggest brokerage. The yield on the 2014 notes of Myhome Real Estate Development Group Co., based in the central city of Wuhan, jumped 185 basis points in the past year to 7.78%. The real estate market is "the root of all risks" as falling prices erode local governments' ability to raise funds for spending that helps the economy, Li Daokui, former People's Bank of China adviser, said Feb. 25.

• China Separatists Stab 29 to Death at Train Station, Xinhua Says. Xinjiang separatists killed at least 29 people and wounded 130 in knife attacks at a railway station in southwestern China yesterday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the Kunming municipal government. Police shot and killed at least four of more than 10 masked attackers who stabbed people at Kunming station yesterday afternoon, and were still hunting for the rest, Xinhua said. The injured were taken to more than 10 local hospitals in Kunming for treatment, it said. President Xi Jinping sent Meng Jianzhu, the Communist Party’s security chief, and the government’s public security minister to Kunming, and urged severe punishment of the attackers and a crackdown on violent crimes to maintain social stability, Xinhua reported. 

• Chinese Austerity Campaign Spreads Beyond Ferraris to Funerals. Zhang Hongbao, who’s run a funeral home in Shanghai for more than a decade, says he can’t recall the last time business was so dead. “Government officials don’t dare to spend too much on funerals,” Zhang, owner of Shanghai Funeral Service (China) Co., said in an interview. “It’s the peak of the anti-corruption drive. They choose simple ceremonies, such as inviting fewer people and have quieter events rather than the noisy rituals of the past.”

• China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li Growth Challenges. A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to an eight-month low in February, adding to challenges for growth as Premier Li Keqiang prepares to map out the government’s economic strategy to the nation’s legislature. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) was at 50.2, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. That compared with January’s 50.5 reading and the 50.1 median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. “The slowdown in manufacturing growth is due to a deceleration in investment, especially of credit-sensitive infrastructure and real-estate investment,” said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong.

• Xi Orders Terrorism Crackdown After Deadly China Knife Rampage. China’s President Xi Jinping ordered a crackdown on “violent terrorist activities” after 33 people died when knife-wielding assailants rampaged through a train station in a southwestern city on March 1. Local authority officials in Kunming said evidence at the scene showed it was a terrorist attack orchestrated by Xinjiang separatist forces, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday. A group promoting human rights for the region’s minority people, the Uighur, called for a transparent investigation. 

• China Growth-Target Dilemma Looms as Policy Goals Demand Slowing. China’s Communist Party leadership faces a dilemma over where to set a growth goal for 2014 as President Xi Jinping wrestles with sustaining expansion while limiting debt risks, environmental damage and social unrest. The target, set at 7.5 percent last year, will be announced at this week’s meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. In a Bloomberg News survey, 63 percent of economists predict the same number this year, while 33 percent see either a 7 percent goal or a switch to a range, such as 7 percent to 7.5 percent.

• Shirai Suggests Widening BOJ Target Once Inflation Advances. Bank of Japan board member Sayuri Shirai suggested the central bank could broaden its 2 percent inflation target into a numerical range once price gains advance closer to the goal.

• Asia Stocks Drop as Havens Sought on Crimea; Wheat Surges. Asian stocks and U.S. equity-index futures tumbled with emerging-market currencies while the yen, gold and Treasuries gained as tensions over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine intensified. Wheat climbed the most since August as the crisis stoked supply concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.3 percent by 10:50 a.m. in Tokyo and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell the most in a month as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flies to Kiev today. The yen added 0.4 percent versus the greenback, which strengthened against emerging-market currencies from South Korea to Poland. Brent crude jumped as much as 1.9 percent and natural gas surged while gold climbed 1.2 percent, leading a rally in precious metals. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to an almost one-month low and Asian bond risk rose. Wheat jumped as much as 4.5 percent and corn rose to a five-month high. 

• Yen Gains With Dollar as Putin Sparks Haven Asset Demand. The yen gained against all of its 16 major peers as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine intensified one of the most serious standoffs since the Cold War, boosting demand for haven assets. 

• Ruble Set to Weaken as Putin’s Ukraine Incursion Risks Sanctions. The threat of Western sanctions against Russia stands to dry up demand for the country’s assets and deepen a selloff in the ruble after President Vladimir Putin’s military forces took over parts of neighboring Ukraine. 

• Ukraine Tension Seen Stoking Gas, Crude Prices on Supply Concern. Natural gas and crude oil rose amid investor concern that escalating geopolitical tensions over Ukraine could curb energy supplies. Natural gas futures for April delivery surged as much as 2.4 percent to $4.721 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, after sliding 25 percent last week. Brent crude advanced 1.3 percent to $110.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. 

• Hedge Funds Most Bullish on Gold Rally in 14 Months: Commodities. Hedge funds raised bullish gold wagers to the highest in more than 14 months amid mounting concern that the U.S. economic recovery is weakening. The net-long position climbed 25 percent to 113,911 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 25, the highest since December 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities advanced 16 percent to 1.45 million contracts, the most since April 2011. Coffee wagers reached a 33-month high.

• Nigeria Militant Attacks Kill at Least 90 in Northeast Region. At least 90 people died in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state after bombings and attacks carried out by suspected Islamist militants. Two explosions yesterday evening at a crowded marketplace in the Ajilari area of Maiduguri left 51 people dead, according to a body count by locals and anti-insurgent vigilante group members, Modu Kolo, a 33-year-old resident, said by phone today. In a separate attack yesterday, gunmen invaded Mainok village, killing at least 39, said Bunu Kaka, a 42-year-old farmer who fled the hostility.

• VIX Traders Bet on Rising Volatility After Year of Calm: Options. Options tied to gains in the benchmark gauge for American stock volatility reached the highest prices in six years last week, reflecting bets that the calm prevailing in equities for the last year won't last.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Putin Declares War. Will Obama and Europe let him get away with carving up Ukraine?

CNBC: 

• Russian banks raise forex rates to record highs: Report. Russian banks raised dollar and euro exchange rates to record highs on Sunday amid the crisis in Ukraine, Dow Jones reported. The wire service quoted one operator at an exchange office in Moscow as saying the office was only buying foreign currency, not selling.

Zero Hedge: 

• US Official Claims 6,000 Russian Troops In Complete Control Of Crimea - Crisis Map Update.

• Putin Asks For, And Is Granted Permission By Parliament To Use Military In Ukraine.

• How Facebook(FB) Exploits Underage Girls In Its Quest For Ad Revenue.

• Putin To Use Military In Ukraine.

• Pro-Russian Protesters Storm Kharkiv City Administration Building; Russian Flags Hoisted Across East Ukraine. (video)

• Near-Bankrupt Rome Bailed Out As Italy Unemployment Rises To All Time High, Grows By Most On Record In 2013.

• Ukraine's Acting President Puts All Armed Forces On Full Combat Alert.

• The Greatest Propaganda Coup Of Our Time?

• Ukraine Capital Control Crunch: Largest Bank Limits Cash Withdrawals To $100 Daily.

• El-Erian: 6 Reasons Why Capex Is Constrained.

• BofA(BAC) Warns Russian Ruble Weakness Is Here To Stay. (graph)

• The Good, Bad, & Ugly Market Implications Of A "Crimean" War.

• Is Chinese Centrally Planned FX Policy "Just A Silly Game"?

• Chinese Manufacturing PMI Slumps To 8-Month Low, Services PMI To 3-Month High; Goldman Admits Growth Decelerating. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Russia Took Crimea — What Happens Next Is Critical.

• First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0.

• Putin's Crimea Aim Is To Make The West Look Weak. 

• Chinese Media Hurls Racist Slur At Departing US Ambassador.

• BUFFETT: Here Comes 'A Lot Of Bad News' About Public Pensions. 

• Here's The Massive 'Titan' Storm That's About To Slam The East Coast.

• HOUSE INTEL CHIEF: 'Putin Is Playing Chess, And We're Playing Marbles'.

• Japan's Ambitious Economic Revival Plan Is Running Into Big Problems.

• US Says It Could Give Kiev As Much Help As It Needs.

• Korean Manufacturing Activity Is Contracting. (graph)
  

• IAN BREMMER: We're Witnessing The Most Seismic Geopolitical Events Since 9/11. 

• Witnesses Describe Horrifying Mass Stabbing In China That Killed 29.

• Australia's Manufacturing Continues To Contract As Exports Collapse.

Investing.com:

• Up Next: Emerging Market Banking Crises. Asia Confidential thinks the vast majority of commentary has missed the underlying reasons for emerging market currency volatility, with the yuan being the latest example. What we're really witnessing is a major rebalancing of global economic trade.

Reuters:

• SEC investigates Citigroup over fraudulent Mexican loans-source. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating Citigroup for accounting fraud after it disclosed bogus loans in its Mexican Banamex unit, a source familiar with the investigation said. The securities regulator is also examining whether Citigroup violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the source said.

• Russian PM Medvedev warns Ukraine's new leaders they won't last. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Facebook on Sunday that Ukraine's leaders had seized power illegally, and predicted their rule would end with "a new revolution" and new bloodshed.

Handelsblatt:

• BOE's Carney Warns of China's Shadow Banks. Sector grew fast in last 5 years, holds risks for world economy, citing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Shadow banks and regulated banks intertwined via implicit guarantees, Carney said. Central banks need to take into account what their actions mean for wold economy. ECB's stress test must by "tough, credible"; stress will show at some lenders in crisis countries, Carney said.

Macrobusiness:

• China’s credit tightening is serious. The yuan fell 1.3% against the dollar last week, which is very steep in context. There are three theories about what’s going on.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (VZ), (ATW), (YUM), (FTD), (SPG), (PLD), (NTRI), (CMG)  and (BKS).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 +3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.0 -1.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.91%.

• S&P 500 futures -.72%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.71%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (NUS)/2.01

• (MDR)/.16

• (MBI)/.17

• (SSYS)/.49 

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for January is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in December.

• Personal Spending for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in December.

• The PCE Core for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in December.

8:58 am EST

• Final US Markit PMI for February is estimated at 56.7.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for February is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.3 in January.

• ISM Prices Paid for February is estimated to fall to 57.4 versus 60.5 in January.

• Construction Spending for January is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.1% gain in December.
  

Afternoon:

• Total Vehicle Sales for February are estiamted to rise to 15.4M versu s 15.16M in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, RBA decission, Morgan Stanley Utilities Conference, Cowen Healthcare Conference and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising energy prices, increasing emerging markets/European debt angst, technical selling, a stronger yen and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.