Bloomberg:
- EU Mulls More Russia Sanctions as Ukraine Rebels Fight on. Ukrainian rebels seized a town in the
Luhansk region today after a retreat from eastern strongholds as
European Union states considered expanding a list of Russians
facing sanctions as soon as tomorrow. Several hundred rebels seized Popasnaya, a city of 20,000
people, news service Interfax reported, citing the separatists.
After the militants shifted thousands of fighters to the
provincial capital of Donetsk last week, Ukrainian forces
continued to press their campaign, according to Ukrainian Deputy
Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky, who said the separatists
wouldn’t agree to peace talks.
- Russia Threatens Response If Sectoral Sanctions Imposed.
Russia will respond against the U.S. and its European allies if
measures targeting entire industries are levied over the crisis in
Ukraine, according to Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak. “If
the situation continues to develop and sectoral sanctions are imposed,
it will be necessary to prepare more serious countermeasures,” Storchak
said on the ministry’s
Facebook page today. “In particular, there may be difficulties
with money transfers if sanctions are applied to big banks and
the financial sector.”
- Israel Strikes Gaza by Air, Sea to Halt Rocket Attacks. Israel
struck 150 targets in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and authorized
the call-up of 40,000 reservists as it weighed a possible ground
operation to quell weeks of Palestinian rocket fire into
its territory. Gaza emergency services chief Ashraf al-Qedra
said 14 people, including three children, were killed today as Israel’s
offensive expanded. Targets included senior Hamas operatives as well as
militant facilities, the military said.
- Brazil Inflation Really at 8% Without Rouseff Fiddling. Brazilian
President Dilma Rousseff has been fighting inflation by holding down
government-regulated prices. The bill will come due next year. The winner of this October’s presidential election will suffer the consequences of policies that have repressed
electricity prices by 30 percent, urban bus fares by 20 percent
and gasoline prices by 15 percent since 2011, according to data
from Rio de Janeiro-based firm Modal Asset Management. Lifting
controls will unleash pressures that will keep inflation above
the mid-point of the target for a sixth straight year. Consumer
prices as measured by the benchmark IPCA index rose 0.4 percent in June,
pushing annual inflation to 6.52 percent, the national statistics
agency said today. Prices would be rising by almost 8 percent if it weren’t for controls,
according to estimates by Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist
at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who spoke by phone from New York.
- Commerzbank Said Next to Face Penalties in U.S. Probe.
Commerzbank AG (CBK), Germany’s second-largest lender, will probably be
the next bank to resolve alleged U.S. sanctions violations, a person
with knowledge of the matter
said. The Frankfurt-based firm may incur penalties of at least
$500 million as part of a deferred-prosecution agreement with
authorities as soon as summer in the U.S., the person said, asking not
to be identified because the talks are confidential. Such agreements
spare companies a felony conviction.
- European Stocks Decline as Air France Warns on Earnings.
European stocks fell the most in
almost three months, led by travel and leisure companies, after Air
France-KLM (AF) Group cut its full-year profit forecast. Air France-KLM
slumped the most since October 2011 after saying earnings will be hurt
amid overcapacity on North American and Asian routes, poor demand for
freight and the fallout from a dispute with Venezuela. Commerzbank AG
fell to its lowest price
since December after a person with knowledge of the matter said
it will probably be the next bank to resolve alleged U.S.
sanctions violations.
The Stoxx 600 slipped 1.4 percent to 339.99 at the close of
trading, for its third day of declines.
- Complacency Breeds $2 Trillion of Junk as Sewage Funded.
“It definitely feels like investors are getting overexuberant, and you
can stay in overexuberant conditions for a while,” said Fred H. Senft
Jr., director of fixed income and equity research for Key Private Bank in Cleveland. “But when it turns it will turn quickly and it will turn very ugly.” Halfway
through a sixth year of near-zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve
and unprecedented central-bank stimulus from Brussels to Tokyo, almost
any borrower is able to raise debt with few questions asked even as the
World Bank cuts its outlook for global economic growth. These are boom
times for complacency. To gauge just how comfortable the world of debt has gotten, consider:
- Office REITs in U.S. Plan the Most Construction in Decade.
Office REITs, led by Boston Properties Inc. (BXP), Vornado Realty
Trust (VNO) and Kilroy Realty Corp. (KRC), are planning to plow almost
$11 billion into new projects, triple the amount just two years ago and
the most in data going back to 2004, according to research firm Green Street Advisors Inc. Much of that is focused on the
coasts, including San Francisco and New York, the areas with the
most demand from both tenants and investors.
- Jefferies CEO Warns of ‘Bad Behaviors’ Returning. Bankers and investors need to ensure
they don’t repeat “bad behaviors” that contributed to the
credit crisis as the financial-services industry embraces
greater risk, said Richard Handler, chief executive officer of
Jefferies Group LLC. “People who take short cuts, are political, prioritize
themselves above others, take excessive risks for personal gain,
don’t value capital, or are unethical are outright cancers,”
Handler, 53, also CEO of Jefferies’s parent company, Leucadia National
Corp. (LUK), said in his quarterly letter to clients. “These types of
people will not only flourish in the next crisis, but
most probably they will cause it.”
- Central Banks Seeking to Spur Supply Side Miracle Come Up Short. Central bankers’ experiment with zero
interest rates is falling short on the supply side of their
economies. Productivity and labor-force growth are failing to
accelerate despite policies Bank of England GovernorMark Carney said
should deliver the economic growth needed to generate “supply-side
improvement.” “Weaker supply-side performance may dampen the enthusiasm
of developed-market central banks to experiment with their
growth/inflation trade-off to elicit strong supply,” JPMorgan
Chase & Co. economists led by Bruce Kasman said in a July 4
report.
- Option Skew at 2 1/2-Year Low Signals Treasuries Rise, BofA Says. Long-term Treasuries are poised to
rally as the skew in option volatility reached the lowest since
2011, signaling wagers for higher yields have become overdone,
according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- China c.bank reinforces interbank lending limits -sources. China's central bank has
reinforced the country's controls on interbank lending by
instructing the headquarters of banks to keep close tabs on this
area, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter.
Interbank loans, which are a part of China's fast-growing
and sometimes wayward shadow banking market, have come under
increased scrutiny on fears that some may sour as the maturing
Chinese economy cools.
- Sensex falls over 500 points, marks biggest single-day fall since Sept. The BSE Sensex and Nifty slumped more than 2 percent on Tuesday, marking their biggest single-day fall in over 10 months and retreating from record highs hit
earlier in the session, after the railway budget raised worries the
government would slash spending.
Financial Times:
- Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman. Hedge
funds have sharply scaled back their bearish bets that the value of
stocks is about to fall, with the proportion of shares earmarked for
short selling at its lowest level since before the financial crisis
despite warnings of renewed market exuberance.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Social Media -4.37% 2) Gaming -3.23% 3) Alt Energy -3.20%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CBSO, ANAC, BOFI, EUFN, SNAK, CBS, BECN, KS, DAL, SHPG, IIF, FTNT, SDRL, SOCL, SYT, OAK, TFM, GLOG, ADHD, RARE, SRPT, FSLR, GWPH, BITA, BIND, JBLU, LVS, AMRI, FRGI, BDSI, ZLTQ, TNGO, VECO, ANAC, ARUN, PODD, PANW, HGT, SPWR, KS, CAMP, INVN, ACRX, PCRX, TWTR, WDAY, CLDX, SSYS, LCI, SPLK, SRPT, SGMO, OMER, ZU and KPTI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) IGT 2) WDAY 3) KRE 4) HYG 5) TXN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) F 2) BA 3) TWTR 4) JKS 5) WFM
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Utilities +.39% 2) REITs +.15% 3) Foods -.11%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) HIG 2) KR 3) INSM 4) DNDN 5) QID
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) MRD 2) RRC 3) WDR 4) GES 5) PETM
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Gaza Rockets Barrage Israel Readying for Possible Escalation. Gaza
Strip militants bombarded southern Israel with dozens of rockets,
sending Israel closer to escalating its battle against them as it
stepped up air strikes
and mobilized reserves. About 80 rockets hit Israel from Hamas-controlled Gaza
yesterday, reaching as deep as 25 miles (40 kilometers) inside
Israeli territory, the military said. The army is reinforcing
regular paratrooper and infantry forces on the Gaza border with
as many as 1,500 reservists, spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Peter Lerner said in a phone briefing.
- Beheading #WorldCup Shows Islamic State’s Online Savvy. “This
is our ball,” said a tweet accompanying a photo of the decapitated
head. “It’s made of skin #WorldCup.” The World Cup hashtag ensured it
would pop up on news feeds of the tournament’s followers until Twitter
Inc. could take down the posting.
- Ukraine Moves to Destroy Rebel Bases in East, Ruling Out Cease-Fire. Ukraine’s government accused pro-Russian rebels of destroying bridges
after the army recaptured territory in the east of the country from the
insurgents. The rebels have blown up seven bridges, three of them
yesterday, the Ukrainian cabinet said on its website. The insurgents are
also laying mines as they retreat, posing a risk to civilians, the
Defense Ministry said in a statement.
- Samsung Profit Misses Estimates as Cheap Phones Struggle. Samsung
Electronics Co. (005930) posted second-quarter profit that missed
analysts’ estimates as the world’s biggest smartphone maker loses market
share and a stronger won crimps the value of overseas sales.
Operating profit was 7.2 trillion won ($7.1 billion) in the three months
ended June, the Suwon, South Korea-based company said in a filing
today. That compares with the 8.1 trillion-won average of 34 analyst
estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Tesla(TSLA) Sued in China for Trademark Infringement.
Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), the electric carmarker led by Elon Musk, was
sued in China for trademark infringement in the latest example of the
difficulties foreign companies face doing business in the country. Zhan
Baosheng, who registered the rights to the name before the U.S.
carmaker entered China, is requesting that Tesla shut its showrooms,
service centers and supercharging facilities there; stop all sales and
marketing activities in the country; and pay him 23.9 million yuan ($3.9
million) in compensation, according to a lawsuit filed July 3 in Beijing and seen by Bloomberg News.
- China Developers Slow to Pay Realtors Amid Rout, Centaline Says. Chinese
developers, hit by tighter liquidity and a widespread anti-graft
campaign, are delaying paying fees to realtors who help them sell new
projects, according to the nation’s biggest real estate brokerage. Centaline Group, which owns Centaline Property Agency Ltd., has about 1 billion yuan ($161 million) of uncollected
receivables due, group founder Shih Wing Ching said in an
interview. Developers pay the fees only after they they get the
sales proceeds, he said.
- Asian Stocks Slip on Yen Gains.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional index slipping from a six-year
high, as the yen extended gains amid speculation over the outlook for
U.S. interest rates. Crop futures rebounded while precious metals
dropped with oil. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent by 10
a.m. in Tokyo, dropping for the first time in three days as Japan’s
Topix gauge slid 0.8 percent, headed for its lowest close this
month.
Wall Street Journal:
- Ukraine Advances, Putin Stays Silent. Interior Ministry Adviser Says Armed Rebel Fighters Unable to Leave City.
As Ukraine laid plans for a siege of pro-Russia separatists'
remaining bastions Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced a
critical decision on whether to answer rebel pleas for military help—a
move that could determine what he gains or loses following a monthslong
conflict that has roiled global powers. Russia has encouraged and
supported the separatists during their insurgency, but has been
unusually quiet since the Ukrainian...
- From Mountains, Island, Secret Town, China's Electronic Spy Shop Watches. Military Organization 3PLA Is Tasked With Monitoring Worldwide Electronic Information. From mountains near Beijing, China's version of the U.S. National
Security Agency monitors Russia and tracks missiles. Its military
experts analyze Internet phone calls on an island dubbed China's Hawaii,
and and it eavesdrops on Europe from a secret town hidden behind an
array of residential towers. Using Chinese government websites,
academic databases and foreign security expertise, The Wall Street
Journal assembled an overview of some secret operations of China's
global monitoring organization, the Third Department of...
Fox News:
- Border crisis could provide cover to ISIS operatives, say experts. The border crisis could be the perfect opportunity for Islamic
terrorists looking to sneak sleeper cells into the U.S., say experts. Patrols on the Mexican border have been stretched to the breaking
point in recent weeks by a tidal wave of immigrants from Central
America. Among the estimated 60,000 people who have streamed across is a
small percentage of what agents term "Special Interest Aliens," or
SIAs. Terrorism experts say airport security is effective at keeping
dangerous jihadists out, but the border breakdown could be America's
Achilles heel - providing an entry point for groups like ISIS.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Brazil carmakers slash forecasts as June output plunges.
Carmakers in Brazil are forecasting the worst drop in production in 16
years after plunging June output highlighted a severe industry slump
despite ongoing government stimulus. Production of cars, trucks and buses is expected to fall 10.0 percent in 2014 as sales retreat 5.4 percent, national
automakers association Anfavea said on Monday. Brazil's auto output fell 23.3 percent in June
from May and plunged 33.3 percent from a year earlier, Anfavea
said. Production in the first half of the year was 16.8 percent
lower than the first six months of 2013. If output tumbles as much as carmakers now expect, it will
be the steepest annual drop since a 23.2 percent plunge in 1998.
China Securities Journal:
- China May Grant IPO Permits to 15 Cos. Each Month. About 15
companies are expected to get IPO approval notifications each month from
July to Dec., citing an unidentified person from the industry.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.25 -.25 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June is estimated to rise to 978.0 versus 96.6 in May.
10:00 am EST
- JOLTs Job Openings for May are estimated to fall to 4350 versus 4455 in April.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for May is estimated to fall to $20.0B versus $26.847B in April.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, China CPI, 3Y $27B
T-Note auction, German trade figures, US weekly retail sales, (KLAC)
analyst briefing and the (LRCX) analyst meeting could impact trading
today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 11.50 +11.43%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.67 -.15%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.90 +.86%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.49 +5.71%
- ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 unch.
- Total Put/Call 1.01 unch.
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.17 +1.81%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.44 +3.49%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.79 +2.28%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.24 -.40%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 233.05 +.08%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 300.46 n/a
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.25 basis points
- TED Spread 22.5 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 210.0 -5.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.90/Metric Tonne -.62%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.20 -1.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.60 +1.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -44 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took some profits in my biotech sector longs
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Moves to Destroy Rebel Bases in East, Ruling Out Cease-Fire. Ukraine’s
government accused pro-Russian rebels of destroying bridges, as it
expressed its determination to wipe out insurgent bases and ruled out a unilateral cease-fire in the battle-torn east. “Government
troops are blocking roads to Donetsk and Luhansk to prevent rebels’
reinforcement and weapons delivery,” a Defense Ministry spokesman,
Andriy Lysenko, told reporters in Kiev today. “Rebels are putting mines
on infrastructure, such as bridges.”
- Carney’s Hawkish Turn Seen Setting Fashion for Yellen.
The question investors are now asking is whether Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen will take the same journey. The debate burns brighter
after U.S. unemployment fell to its lowest in more than five years.
Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. now sees a Fed increase in the third quarter of next year,
rather than the first three months of 2016.
- China Local Funding Unit Got Funds Illegally, Beijing News Says. Jiamusi
New Era Infrastructure Construction Investment Group Co., a local
government financing vehicle in northeastern China, used fabricated
documents to illegally obtain funds, Beijing News reported on July 4.
The LGFV, based in the city of Jiamusi near the Russian border in
Heilongjiang province, used fabricated urban planning documents to boost
the area of land for which it owns the usage rights, Beijing News
reported, citing Song Xueying, former head
of the city’s Department of Land and Resources. The financing
unit used the land as collateral to sell bonds, according to the
report.
- German Industrial Output Falls in Sign of Slower Growth. German
industrial output dropped for
a third month in May amid signs Europe’s largest economy is taking a
breather. Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, fell 1.8 percent
from April, when it declined a revised 0.3 percent, the Economy
Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast output to remain
unchanged, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News
survey. Production rose 1.3 percent in May from
the previous year when adjusted for working days.
- European Banks Seen Facing $50 Billion More in Legal Expenses. Europe’s banks face a further $50 billion of legal costs as they catch up with their U.S. counterparts, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. European firms, which have set aside or paid out more than
$80 billion since 2009, face about $130 billion of litigation
and settlement costs in total, analysts led by Huw van Steenis
wrote in a note to clients today. U.S. firms, which have so far
made provisions for or paid out $125 billion, may have only to
set aside a further $25 billion, the analysts said.
- Europe Stocks Drop After Biggest Weekly Rally Since March.
European stocks fell the most in
almost two weeks as investors assessed equity valuations
following the biggest rally since March. Sky Deutschland AG and Deutsche
Boerse AG slipped at least
2.5 percent each after brokerages downgraded the shares.
TeliaSonera AB and Tele2 AB advanced after the Swedish company agreed to
buy Tele2’s Norwegian business. PostNL NV (PNL) rallied the
most in more than two years after boosting its profit forecast. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.9 percent to 344.8 at
the close of trading in London, with all 19 industry groups
retreating.
- Travelers to U.S. Asked to Turn On Mobile Devices as Security Beefed Up. U.S.-bound travelers from some overseas airports are being
asked to turn on mobile phones and other devices under enhanced security
measures from the Transportation Security Administration. Electronic
devices that don’t power up won’t be permitted onboard the aircraft and
the passenger may be subject to further screening, the TSA said
yesterday in a statement.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Chicago Tribune:
- Fourth of July weekend toll: 82 shot, 14 of them fatally, in Chicago.
For 10 minutes, it seemed like the shooting was everywhere in the South
Chicago neighborhood. It started when someone shot and wounded a
couple, then two people
fired at the shooter, then there was a chase and shots exchanged and a
man sitting on a porch was hit. Responding officers kept cutting each
other off on their radios as they reported other gunfire in the area
late Sunday night and early Monday morning. Then the heavy equipment rolled in: A helicopter and SUVs packed with
lockers of rifles. SWAT teams in green coveralls patrolled the streets
with uniformed officers.