Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global growth worries, Russia/Ukraine tensions and rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst offset central bank hopes, seasonal strength and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,063.50 +1.16%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,063.50 +1.16%

• DJIA 17,810.0 +.99%

• NASDAQ 4,712.96 +.52%

• Russell 2000 1,172.42 -.12%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.60 +.90%

• Wilshire 5000 21,422.80 +1.05%

• Russell 1000 Growth 965.14 +1.07%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,028.16 +1.28%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 498.60 +1.42%

• Solactive US Cyclical 142.48 +1.87%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 997.35 +.28%

• Transports 9,094.16 +.36%

• Utilities 596.15 +1.73%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.49 +2.57%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.74 +1.30%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,175.10 +.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 982.27 -.02%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 229,210+.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -85 -88

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.82 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 255,363 -7.76%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,459,175 -3.33%

• Total Put/Call .74 -17.78%

• OEX Put/Call 1.08 -51.13%

• ISE Sentiment 83.0 -47.13%

• NYSE Arms .55 -32.93%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.90 -3.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.29 -24.95%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.71 +.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.77 -4.55%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,605.52 +.78%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.654 Trillion +.37%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.193 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 49.1 -15.2%

• AAII % Bears 23.8 +23.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 269.10 +.87%

• Crude Oil 76.75 +.96%

• Reformulated Gasoline 205.65 +.46%

• Natural Gas 4.24 +4.46%

• Heating Oil 240.76 -.76%

• Gold 1,200.70 +1.04%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.84 +2.42%

• Copper 303.80 -.23%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 339.0 USD/Ton -8.85%

• China Iron Ore Spot 70.31 USD/Ton -6.84%

• Lumber 333.0 +4.22%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,246.30 -.11%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.4% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0664 +9.29%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.58 +.05%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.90 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.0 -9.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +4.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17

• US Dollar Index 88.27 +.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.45 +.17%

• Yield Curve 181.0 unch.

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.31% -1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.452 Trillion +.1%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.68 -.92%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 173.0 +2.76%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 30.70 -2.26%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 63.89 +.40%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 243.99 -1.09%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 80.84 +4.84%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 351.86 -1.60%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 282.99 -4.28%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.17 +1.0%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 23.25 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.50 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.88 -2.47%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.33 -4.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 269.94 -4.17%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 86.0 -1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.856 Trillion -1.54%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,090.70 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 287,500 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.99% -2 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 391.30 +4.93%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 38.5 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.84/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,332 +6.05%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,054.96 +1.38%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,695 +.95%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +1.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +6.2%

• Gold & Silver +4.2%

• Homebuilders +3.3%

• Energy +3.3%

• Semis +2.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -.7% 

• I-Banks -.8%

• Software -1.3%

• Computer Services -1.5%

• Social Media -3.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• CLDX, SUNE, TERP, SSI, OPLK, TSE, MAC, DISH, AVID, CVTI, WSM, BHI, SHEN, DDS, AGN, BBY, ACT, MTSI, SCMP and TGT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• WD, CQH, GMCR, HAL, MC, WLH, LGIH, VRTS, AGTC, VASC and MOV

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.53 -.37%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.33 -1.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.77 -3.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.12 -.12%

• ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -31.19%

• Total Put/Call .75 -21.87%

• NYSE Arms .54 -44.01% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.85 -3.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.33 -4.65%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.70 -2.62%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.89 -2.84%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 266.92 -3.21%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.17 +.96%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 unch.

• TED Spread 23.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

• Yield Curve 181.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $70.31/Metric Tonne -.93%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.90 -1.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.0 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +76 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my EEM short, added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Ukraine’s Poroshenko Jeered at Ceremony Missed by Biden. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he would sign a decree today naming people who died in clashes with security forces in Kiev as heroes of Ukraine, after demands made by an angry crowd at a memorial. Poroshenko made the announcement after being met with shouted abuse and cries of “shame on you” at the memorial to more than 100 people who died during clashes with security services that led to the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych in February. He was visiting the memorial on the first anniversary of the start of the “Euromaidan” protests. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who is in Kiev today, was scheduled to attend the event with Poroshenko, though he was not present during the protest.

• Russian Retail Sales Growth Stalls After Ruble Plunges. Russian retail sales growth stagnated after the ruble had its worst month in more than two years and joblessness rose to the highest since April. The ruble’s plunge to record lows and inflation at the fastest since July 2011 are eating into consumers’ finances. That’s plaguing domestic demand already burdened by higher interest rates, capital flight and tit-for-tat sanctions over the conflict in neighboring Ukraine.

• Draghi Ramps Up Stimulus Pledge on Weak Inflation Outlook.(video) Mario Draghi strengthened his stimulus pledge for the euro area by saying the European Central Bank can’t hold back in its fight to revive the economy. “We will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible, as our price-stability mandate requires,” the ECB president said at a conference in Frankfurt today. Some inflation expectations “have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low,” he said.

• Fed May Limit Wall Street Role in Commodities, Citing Risks. The Federal Reserve may curtail Wall Street commodity businesses after lawmakers said banks’ role in energy, power and metals markets spurred unfair trading advantages and could threaten financial stability. At a Senate hearing today, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said curbs under consideration include ownership limits, restricting how much revenue can be derived from commodities and requiring Wall Street firms to boost capital. He said the new rules, to be proposed early next year, could restrict banks from investing in oil tankers, coal mines and other businesses involved in physical commodities. 

• Junk Bonds Whipsawed as Trading Drought Rattles Investors. Junk bond investors have a bad case of the jitters. Every bit of bad news is whipsawing prices, with bonds tumbling as much as 50 percent in a single day. “We’ve seen some flash crashes in the market,” saidHenry Craik-White, a senior investment analyst at ECM Asset Management in London, which oversees $8 billion. “If you get caught on the wrong side of a name, you can get severely punished in this market.” 

• European Stocks Jump as Draghi Repeats Inflation Pledge. Stocks in Europe climbed to a two-month high as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated his commitment to raising inflation as fast as possible, and China cut interest rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 2.1 percent to 345.24 at the close of trading, snapping a two-day losing streak.

• Iron Ore Completes Fifth Weekly Loss as ‘Worst Is Yet to Come'. Iron ore capped a fifth straight weekly drop with prices trading near the lowest since 2009 on concern that slowing growth in China will hurt demand just as rising low-cost supplies spur a global surplus. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao lost 6.8 percent this week, dropping to $70.20 on Nov. 19, the lowest level since June 2009, data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. showed. The price retreated 0.9 percent to $70.31 a dry ton today.

• Crude Pares Gain as China Rate Cut Not Seen Erasing Glut. WTI for January delivery fell 6 cents to $75.79 a barrel at 12:04 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December contract expired yesterday after rising $1 to $75.58. The volume of all futures traded was 11 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

CNBC: 

• Using your Obamacare plan can come at a great cost.

• China's economy is slowing faster than you think: CFO. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• US Equities Give Back All PBOC Rate-Cut Gains. (graph)

• The Average Hedge Fund Is Down -1% YTD, And The Redemption Requests Are Now Flooding In.

• Why Banks Should Not Be Allowed To Manipulate Metals Markets In 4 Simple Points.

• Deutsche Bank: "People Are Talking About Helicopter Money And Debt Cancellation Being The End Game".

• Did The Tech Bubble Just Quietly Pop? (graph)

• S&P 500 "Most Overbought" Since Feb 2012. (graph)

• The S&P's GAAP P/E Ratio Rises Above 19X. (graph)

• Goldman's Two-Word Summary Of The PBOC Rate Cut: "Slightly Useful".

• Europe's New Scariest Chart. (graph)

Business Insider:

• China Has The Market Fooled. In a note released after the announcement, Societe Generale's Wei Yao admitted that she didn't see the interest-rate cut coming, but also reiterated that it's not a "de facto rate cut." 

• This Dependency Chart Shows A Massive Chinese Slowdown Is Totally Unavoidable. (graph)

• BREMMER: Russia Is Moving Toward Making Crimea And Southeast Ukraine The Same Place.

Reuters:

• European parliament preparing to call for Google(GOOG) break-up: FT.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.03%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -.37% 2) Utilities -.35% 3) Software -.31%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TCPC, GME, WAIR, ARUN, FL, GPS, LGF, MMI, CYBX, VLP, TASR, ZOES, TFM, DDS, GMCR, GEOS, MMP, JMEI, ATHN, FMI, RYAAY, TOO, AGN, ASML, TCBI, LQDT, CYBX and GEOS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TWX 2) COP 3) FL 4) XRT 5) GPS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EBAY 2) MCD 3) F 4) ABC 5) MINI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume