Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Russia's 'Dark' Warplanes Are Spooking Europe. Russian military aircraft with their transponders turned off have had several close calls with civilian planes. Two Russian bombers, flying with their transponders turned off to avoid detection, swooped so close to the Irish coast that Dublin's control tower delayed the takeoff of one passenger plane and ordered another to alter its route to steer clear of the bombers. The Feb. 18 incident, disclosed last week by the Irish government, was only the latest in an alarming series of close calls with Russian warplanes in the skies over Europe. In December, a Russian military intelligence plane nearly collided with an SAS passenger jet over southern Sweden, according to the Swedish air force chief. Earlier in the year, a Russian plane flew close to another SAS jet that had just taken off from Copenhagen. Russia has denied that its aircraft were dangerously close to either plane.
• Greece Told Not to Waste Time as Euro Finance Ministers Meet. (video) Euro-area finance ministers said Greece must move faster to meet its rescue commitments in order to unlock more bailout funds, as the country risks running out of cash. “We have to stop wasting time,” said Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the finance ministers’ group. “We’ve lost over two weeks -- in which very little progress has been made. The real talks haven’t started yet. There has been no implementation.”
• Americans Get Burned by Europe Bond Rally That’s Undone by Euro. You can’t blame U.S. credit investors for wanting to ride this wave of European central bank stimulus. As policy makers buy bonds from traders in the market -- the thinking goes -- they’ll bid up prices. The problem is buying euro-denominated corporate bonds hasn’t necessarily been a good trade because the euro has been tanking relative to the dollar. While euro-denominated corporate bonds have gained 1.4 percent this year according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index, a U.S. exchange-traded fund focused on the debt has lost 9 percent. State Street Corp.’s International Corporate Bond ETF is the second-worst performer among all U.S. debt ETFs this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  
• Emerging-Market Stocks Drop for Seventh Day on U.S. Rate Outlook. Emerging-market stocks extended their longest losing streak since December, led by declines in Asia, amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates sooner, damping demand for riskier assets. Shares in India and South Korea, which were closed March 6 when data showed a bigger-than-projected increase in U.S. payrolls, fell at least 1 percent. The won weakened 1.2 percent against the dollar. The Ibovespa slid to a three-week low as economists lowered their economic growth forecasts for Brazil. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. rallied as regulators said they may allow lenders to enter the brokerage business. Russian markets were closed for a holiday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.3 percent to 958.29, decreasing for a seventh day. All 10 industry groups in the gauge declined, led by technology companies. The odds for a U.S. rate increase by September surged to 59 percent from 49 percent on Thursday, futures showed, a move that will potentially damp the appeal of riskier assets.
• European Stocks Fall From Seven-Year High, Led by Greek Shares. A drop in Greek stocks pushed European equities lower after a five-week rally. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3 percent to 393.19 at the close of trading in London after falling as much as 0.9 percent. Greece’s ASE Index slid the most among 18 western-European markets as euro-area finance ministers said the nation must move faster to meet its rescue commitments in order to unlock more bailout funds.

Wall Street Journal:

• GOP Senators Warn Iranian Leaders on Nuclear Deal. Forty-seven lawmakers say Congress could nullify any deal once Obama leaves office.

CNBC:

• Housing's new worry: Repeat foreclosures return.
• El-Erian: Here's the big problem for investors. (video) As many signs point to a Federal Reserve rate increase later this year, Mohamed El-Erian said there is now a major problem facing investors.

ZeroHedge:

• American "Nightmare" Shocker: The Real US Homeownership Rate Has Never Been Lower. (graph)
• Ranking This Bull Market Rally. (graph)
• "Size Matters" For ECB Which Runs Into Unexpected Monetization Problem.
• Greece Folds (Again); Ready To Propose "New" Reforms Immediately.
• This Was Not Supposed To Happen. (graph)
• Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index Offers No Bad News Hope For Bulls. (graph)
• If Everything's So Rosy, Why Is This Happening? (graph)
• Russia Responds To European Army Proposal: Rattles "Nuclear" Sabre.
• Goldman(GS) Blames Weather For Stronger Oil Prices, Sees WTI Sliding Back To $40.
• The Bubble Is Complete: 'Smart Money' Buys Into Bespoke Tranche "Opportunity" (Again).
• Dear Mr. Market, "It's Not Different This Time".

Business Insider:

• LIVE: The big Apple(AAPL) Watch event.
• Obama declares Venezuela a threat to US national security.
• More and more people are comparing Hillary Clinton to Richard Nixon.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) might have some problems with the Fed's next stress test.
• A staggering number of Russians hold negative views of the US.

Telegraph:

• Eurozone prepares to reject Greek reform deal as Athens warned measures are 'not enough'. Head of Europe's finance ministers tells Greece to stop wasting time over enacting reforms as the country scrambles to meet €350m in IMF loan repayments this week.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.05%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.83% 2) Coal -3.49% 3) Gaming -3.02%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

•  LL, AFOP, BITA, MDCO, WX, AA, BPT, CALA, WBAI, WYNN, AAC, PAYC, CENX, CKP, MNTX, TIF, ATHM, RLYP, PANW, CHK, ORAN, MELI, TSRO, XON, MGM, WCC and OHRP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DHR 2) HRB 3) AKS 4) M 5) LEN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBRY 2) CLF 3) PCYC 4) QSII 5) STRA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.33%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +.79% 2) Defense +.77% 3) Computer Services +.65%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RTI, PNK, GPRE, GLPI, WLL, MAC, WUBA, BYD, THRX, BIG, GLPI, UTIW, THRX, CLDN and VSLR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MAC 2) HRB 3) GPRE 4) WLL 5) RPTP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JNPR 2) UTIW 3) MAC 4) BIG 5) DHI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greek Tensions Revived as Creditors Reject Reform List. Greece’s provisional agreement with creditors to avert a default started to crack as European officials said the country’s latest proposals fell far short of what was tabled two weeks ago and Greek ministers floated the prospect of a referendum if their reforms are rejected. The list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors such as tourists, is “far” from complete and the country probably won’t receive an aid disbursement this month, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday.  

• Greece Mulls Referendum as No Deal With Lenders in Sight. Greece’s anti-austerity coalition is considering calling a referendum on government policy as euro-area finance ministers are set to withhold further aid payments at a meeting in Brussels tomorrow. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said he doesn’t expect the Eurogroup to make any decisions on Greece on Monday. Reform proposals must first be approved by the Greek parliament and then implemented before the next bailout disbursement is made, Dombrovskis said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

• China Overtakes North Korea as Japan’s Top Security Concern. Japanese people are more concerned about China’s military strength and assertiveness in Asia than any other security issue, according to a public opinion poll released by the government at the weekend. More than 60 percent of respondents to the survey conducted in January said China concerned them, compared with 46 percent in a similar poll three years earlier. The number worried about North Korea fell to about 53 percent from around 65 percent.  

• China Defaults Seen in Private Bonds as Real Yields Surge. A forklift maker, a leather producer and a textiles company have missed payments on privately sold bonds in China this year, as the central bank’s failure to cut borrowing costs in line with slowing inflation wrecks profits. HSBC Holdings Plc is forecasting more defaults after consumer price increases in the world’s second-biggest economy cooled to 0.8 percent in January, the slowest since 2009. Rates on the benchmark one-year lending rate after accounting for living costs rose to a five-year high at 4.59 percent. Prices received by manufacturers dropped 4.3 percent last month, matching January’s decline that was the biggest since 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey before data due tomorrow.

• Tesla(TSLA) Cuts Jobs in China; Sales Are Slow on Car Charging Concerns. Tesla Motors Inc., the electric-car maker led by billionaire Elon Musk, said it’s cutting jobs in China after a local newspaper reported the company will reduce staff by 30 percent. Tesla will eliminate some positions as it makes structural changes to its business in China, Gary Tao, a local spokesman for the carmaker, said Monday by phone. He said he didn’t know how many jobs will be affected. The Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported earlier Tesla will eliminate 180 of the 600 positions at its China unit because sales haven’t met expectations. 

• Russian Court Charges Five in Connection With Nemtsov Murder. A Russian court indicted five men on Sunday in connection with the murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, little more than a week after his death sparked protests and brought condemnation from world leaders. The men, from the country’s predominantly Muslim North Caucasus, were charged in Moscow a day after being arrested, the Interfax news service reported, citing Judge Natalya Mushnikova. One of the accused, Zaur Dadaev, admitted a role in the murder, Interfax said.

• Japan’s Emergence From Recession Weaker Than First Thought. Japan’s emergence from recession was weaker than estimated as companies unexpectedly cut investment and drew down inventories, offsetting a pickup in consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 1.5 percent in the three months through December from the previous quarter, less than a preliminary 2.2 percent, revised government data show. The rebound followed a contraction caused by an increase in the sales tax last April.

• China’s Stocks Fall to Three-Week Low as Brokerages Slump. China’s stocks fell to a three-week low amid concern new share sales will divert funds from existing equities and as securities firms tumbled after regulators said they may allow banks to conduct brokerage businesses. Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. retreated more than 3 percent after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it’s considering allowing banks to apply for brokerage licenses. Jiangxi Copper Co. dropped 2.6 percent to pace declines for commodity shares as a steeper-than-forecast drop in imports signaled weak demand. The Shanghai Composite Index fell for a third day, losing 1 percent to 3,209.22 as of 9:45 a.m.

• Asian Stocks, Bonds Pace U.S. Rout on Payrolls; Oil Slips. Asian stocks and bonds fell, tracking a selloff in the U.S., after American jobs data spurred traders to bring forward bets on higher interest rates and Japanese growth was revised down. The dollar held gains, while oil and copper slipped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.8 percent by 10:52 a.m. in Tokyo, extending last week’s drop as Japan’s Topix index slipped from a seven-year high.

• Iron Ore Majors Raising Supply as Surplus, China Sink Prices. Global iron ore supplies are set to expand further as the world’s biggest producers press on with capacity expansions, raising shipments of the steel-making raw material into a market facing a record surplus and sinking prices. Net supplies will increase about 60 million to 75 million metric tons in 2015, in line with a 75 million ton rise in 2014, as mine expansions in Australia and Brazil more than offset closures in China, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Morgan Stanley predicts a net rise of 63 million tons this year, with production expected to peak in September to October. 

• China’s Scrap Copper Imports Seen Lingering Near 10-Year Low. China’s imports of scrap copper, the feedstock for one-third of the country’s production of the metal, are unlikely to rebound from a 10-year low as U.S. supplies remain tight, according to the world’s largest listed metals and electronics recycler. Industries that provide the bulk of recycled material in the U.S., the biggest exporter of scrap metal to China, have not yet recovered sufficiently to improve supply, Michael Lion, chairman of Sims Metal Management Asia Ltd., said in a March 6 interview in Hong Kong.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The Clinton Foundation and Haiti Contracts. After the earthquake in 2010, the Clintons’ outsize influence in the small nation increased. The Clinton Foundation lists the Brazilian construction firm OAS and the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB) as donors that have given it between $1 million and $5 million. Those relationships are worth learning more about. OAS has been in the news because it is caught up in a corruption scandal centered on Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras. In November Brazilian police arrested three top OAS executives for their alleged roles in a bribery scheme involving inflated contracts

Fox News:

• McConnell vows no debt default as deadline nears. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday that the Republican-controlled Congress won’t allow the government to default as the Treasury Department quickly approaches its so-called “debt ceiling.” “I made it clear after November that we won’t shut down the government or default on debt,” the Kentucky Republican told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

MarketWatch.com:

• Tech insiders dumping stocks as their companies buy them back. The next time a technology company executive says the billions being spent on stock repurchases are a sign of confidence in the company’s business, or because they believe it’s a good investment, feel free to hit the B-S button.

Zero Hedge:

• Crude Awakening: Why Next Week Could Be Carnage For Oil ETFs. (graph)

• Aussie Boom Towns Go Bust As Iron Ore Prices Crash To Record Lows. (graph)

• Every Government In The EMU Will Soon Be Paid To Borrow.

• 5 Things To Ponder: Spring Break Reading List. (graph)

• Markets Are Now Beyond The Control Of The Fed.

• E&P Writedowns Loom As Reserves Overvalued By 60%.

• The Nasdaq Has Become The Biggest Circle-Jerk In History. (graph) Goepfert said insider selling by tech execs is now at the heaviest pace seen in at least eight years.

• Why "Competitive Devaluation" Doesn't Work. (graph)

• The Charts That Matter. (graph)

• Jim Bianco Explains Why QE Failed, And Why The ECB Is Making The Same Mistake As The Fed.

• Goldman Confirms Subprime Responsible For Collapse In Auto Sales. 

• Two Men Charged Over Nemtsov's Murder, Opposition Fear Scapegoating. (video)

• Where The Hedge Fund Herd Was Parked Last Week: The Most Long And Short Net Specs. (graph)

• Greece "Risks Bankruptcy" As Europe Rejects Varoufakis Payment Plan; Another Referendum Fiasco Ensues.

• "Ignore This Measure Of Global Liquidity At Your Own Peril", Albert Edwards Warns. (graph)

• The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different". (graph)

• Bart Chilton: Since 2007's Rise Of The Machines, "Markets Have Not Been The Same".

• Greenspan's Insulting Admission Of Fed Culpability.

• Blackstone Buys America's Most Iconic Skyscraper With Rent Collected As "America's Landlord". (graph)

• Oil Price Faces Another 20% Drop Due To Contango Math. (graph)

• An Inflection Point For Keynesian Parlor Tricks.

• The Fed's $210 Billion Hangover (That No One Is Talking About). (graph)

• What Happened 12 Of The last 13 Times Jobs And Stocks Were Here? (graph)

• NATO's Not Enough! President Juncker Calls For Creation Of European Army To "React Credibly" To Russia.

Business Insider:.

• Albert Edwards: Global liquidity is evaporating.

• The Fed may raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

• A mall with a ski slope and sea lions is planned for south Florida.

• Conservatives are suggesting the White House is going after Bob Menendez because of Iran.

• Oil prices could plunge as the US overflows with oil.

• ECB official: Greece must forget Syriza's 'false promises'.

• The ECB's Lunatic Full Monty Treatment.

• Africa's deadliest terror group just pledged allegiance to Islamic State.

• Austria is fast becoming Europe's latest debt nightmare.

• Greece’s economy is running on empty.

• Expectations for the Apple Watch are going through the roof.

• Here's all of the area that ISIS controls.

• More than half of Wall Street expect the first Fed rate hike to happen in June.

• Head of the Benghazi probe says there are 'huge gaps' in Hillary Clinton's email record.

Reuters:

• Exclusive - Foreign banks tighten lending rules for China state-backed firms. Some banks are adopting stricter lending criteria for China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), demanding collateral from some companies they used to deem as safe as government debt, as Beijing tries to reform its bloated firms and the economy slows.

• Exports jump in China, but slide in imports signals economic weakness. China's exports picked up in the first two months of 2015, propelled by February's exceptionally strong performance that was inflated by the timing of Lunar New Year, while a slide in imports pointed to persistent weakness in the economy. China's imports tumbled 20.2 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, signalling stubborn weakness in the world's second-largest economy that may require more policy support, analysts say. Imports inched up 0.4 percent in 2014. "The sharp decline in imports highlights slackening domestic demand, so we expect the government to take more policy measures to stabilise economic growth," Nie said. A 20.5 percent slide in February imports was the sharpest since the global financial crisis.

Telegraph: 

• Europe holds 'noose around Greek necks' as Athens scrambles to make debt payments. Alexis Tsipras says the European Central Bank is strangling the Greek economy as panic grips the cash-strapped government.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +4.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.5 +2.5 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (URBN)/.57

• (UNFI)/.67

• (IDT)/.40

• (KFY)/.46

• (CASY)/.83

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (ROL) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, German Trade balance, Labor Market Conditions Index for February, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom conference, (MCD) Feb comps, (AAPL) watch media event and the (QCOM) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike fears, global growth worries, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,071.26 -1.58%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change