Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.52%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.12% 2) Computer Hardware +.69% 3) Biotech +.68%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BLDR, CLVS, MCRL, NFLX, ATHN, JMEI, BKS, CLDN, AERI, INCY, ADXS, MACK and BXMT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DNKN 2) IP 3) BRCM 4) HES 5) CLF
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CLVS 2) NFLX 3) TSL 4) AAPL 5) SHLD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume 20.4% Below 100-day average

• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining

• 52.8% of Issues Advancing, 43.7% Declining

• 91 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows

• 57.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average (yesterday's close)

• Average 14-Day RSI 46.7 (yesterday's close)

• TRIN/Arms 1.08

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• World Bank Sees Slower Growth in Developing East Asia. Developing East Asian economies will grow slightly slower this year, the World Bank said, with China’s moderating expansion overshadowing the benefits of lower oil prices and a recovery in rich countries, China’s growth will cool to 7.1 percent in 2015, slower than the 7.2 percent predicted in October and last year’s 7.4 percent expansion, the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update. Developing East Asia will expand 6.7 percent, easing from 6.9 percent in 2014, it said.

• There’s A Self-Feeding Frenzy in Chinese Equities: Iley. (video)

• China, Russia, Saudi Arabia Increased Defense Most as U.S. Cut. Chinese, Russian and Saudi Arabian defense spending increased the most last year, while U.S. expenditures declined, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China’s defense spending rose 9.7 percent from a year earlier to $216 billion, and Russia’s increased 8.1 percent to $84.5 billion, the research group said in its annual report on global defense spending adjusted for inflation. Saudi Arabia had the biggest percentage increase among the top 15 spenders worldwide, rising 17 percent to $80.8 billion.  

• Greed Never Felt So Good to Hong Kong Bulls Chasing Stock Gains. Hong Kong options traders have never been so bullish on the city’s stock market after surging inflows from mainland China propelled the Hang Seng Index to the biggest rally worldwide last week. Wagers on gains for the benchmark gauge increased to the most expensive level on record versus bearish ones Friday as the measure completed a 7.9 percent weekly advance, the most among national equity gauges.

• Hundreds of Thousands March Against President Across Brazil. Brazilians took to the streets for the second time in a month to protest the country’s biggest corruption scandal and government austerity measures aimed at preserving the nation’s investment grade rating. Demonstrators marched in cities throughout the nation, with the biggest gathering occurring at Avenida Paulista, the heart of Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo. The state’s military police estimated attendance at 275,000 people. Thousands more thronged Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach, all wearing green and canary yellow shirts as 3,000 joined a protest in Belo Horizonte.  

• Boko Haram Forces 800,000 Children to Flee Violence, UN Says. The number of children fleeing the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria doubled in the past year to about 800,000, with women and girls targets of abduction for sexual abuse by the militants, according to a United Nations Children’s Fund report. Boko Haram’s six-year campaign to impose Islamic law in Nigeria has forced more than 1.5 million people from their homes, according to Unicef. The number of displaced includes 1.2 million inside Nigeria, with about 200,000 crossing into neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger, stretching social services, health care and other facilities in host communities. 

• Asian Stocks Fluctuate After Biggest Weekly Gain in Five Months. Asia’s benchmark stock gauge swung between gains and losses, after posting its biggest weekly rally in more than five months, as advances by phone companies countered declines for utilities. SoftBank Corp. jumped 2.1 percent after a report that SnapDeal.com, in which the Japanese phone company owns a stake, is planning a U.S. listing. Mesoblast Ltd. surged 25 percent in Sydney after the biotechnology company said it’ll enter into an equity placement pact with Celgene Corp. Tokyo Gas Co. dropped 3.9 percent to lead a decline by utilities after the Japanese power producer said it missed its full-year profit target on impairment charges. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent to 152.14 as of 9:48 a.m. in Tokyo after climbing less than 0.1 percent.

• The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher. Investors speculating the dollar rally is fizzling out may be overlooking trillions of reasons why it will keep on going. There’s pent-up demand for the U.S. currency that will underpin years of appreciation because the world is “structurally short” the dollar, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund economist Stephen Jen. 

• BHP(BHP), Rio(RTP) Faulted by Barnett on Iron as Citigroup Sees $30s. The biggest iron ore producers including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group are pursuing a flawed strategy by flooding an oversupplied market and they should slow down expansion plans, according to the premier of Western Australia. “The signal’s going out to the market that there’s going to be ever-increasing amounts of iron ore available even at lower prices,” Colin Barnett said in an interview. “The market signal is wrong, and I believe the major companies have a flawed strategy. I don’t think it’s good business for them or their shareholders,” said Barnett, whose state includes the ore-rich Pilbara, where the bulk of Australian supply is concentrated.

• Druckenmiller Recounting Soros Experiences Blasts Fed Policies. The billionaire investor, who has one of the best long term track records in money management, told an audience at the Lost Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 18 that trouble is looming. “I just have the same horrific sense I had back in ’04,” Druckenmiller said, according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg News. “Our monetary policy is so much more reckless and so much more aggressively pushing the people in this room and everybody else out the risk curve that we’re doubling down on the same policy that really put us there.” 

• It’s Getting Expensive to Be a Bear as U.S. Rules Pinch Options. More than just a casino for day traders, the options market is where institutions pay millions of dollars a day to hedge investments. Lately, amid a crackdown on risk-taking, they’ve been paying a little more. Prices for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index put contracts, the options that act like insurance policies on stocks because they gain value when shares sink, have jumped this year to the highest levels on record relative to bullish calls, six-month data compiled by Bloomberg show. In one example, an option that appreciates if the market slides 10 percent by July has seen its cost shoot more than 120 percent above the corresponding bet on a rally. That’s twice the average spread since 2005. In a bull market that hasn’t seen a 10 percent correction since 2011, it makes sense that prices are higher to protect equity holdings. But more may be at work. Rocky Fishman, an equity derivatives strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, says hedging costs are going up as dealers are crimped by regulations and self-imposed risk controls stemming from the financial crisis.

• Bloomberg Politics Poll: Democrats and Independents Don’t Want a Hillary Coronation. Exclusive: nationwide poll also shows the vast majority of Americans say they won’t be more or less inclined to vote for Clinton because she represents the idea of America electing its first female president.

• Bloomberg Politics National Poll: Rand Paul, Jeb Bush Face Primary Obstacles. Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul may have a problem with women, and Jeb Bush already has been written off by a large share of potential primary voters, according to a new Bloomberg Politics national poll that underscores the wide-open nature of the race four months before the first primary debate. Just 11 percent of Republican and independent women in the poll said they'd seriously consider supporting Paul, a U.S. senator from Kentucky who announced his presidential bid last week, compared to 22 percent of men. No other Republican contender has a worse spread. Among all Republicans and independents in the poll, 42 percent said they would never consider voting for Bush, a former Florida governor and brother and son to former presidents.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Widens Role in Saudi-led Campaign Against Yemen Rebels. Washington has concerns about Riyadh’s goals in the conflict. The U.S. is expanding its role in Saudi Arabia’s campaign in Yemen, vetting military targets and searching vessels for Yemen-bound Iranian arms amid growing concerns about the goals of the Saudi-led mission, according to U.S. and Arab officials.

• U.S. Consumer Shares Cause Sticker Shock. After sector’s surge in past six months, some investors think prices have climbed too far. U.S. consumer stocks have been flying off the shelves, but some investors are beginning to suffer from sticker shock. Consumer discretionary stocks in the S&P 500—a diverse swath of companies that includes retailers like Macy’s Inc. and Target Corp., as well as auto makers and media companies—have risen 18.8% in the last six months, outpacing the 10.3% gain in the broader S&P 500. Investors are betting the tumble in oil... 

• Wells Fargo(WFC) Warms Up to Risk. Investment banking plays a growing role for traditionally conservative lender. Wells Fargo & Co., the largest bank in the U.S. by market value, has been rewarded for keeping its business simple. Now it is slowly creeping into more complex—and riskier—territory. While many rivals retreat from risk amid regulatory pressures, the bank is expanding into a range of businesses a step removed from its long history as a Main Street lender. Among

• The Hillary Machine. Democrats are falling in line because they feel they have no choice.

• The Dirty Secret of Obama’s Carbon Plan. Taking one-third of U.S. coal-fired power plants off the grid by 2020 simply isn’t workable. Here’s why.

Fox News: 

• Clinton announces 2016 White House bid, asks to be 'champion' of America's middle class. (video) Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Sunday officially announced her 2016 presidential campaign, ending months of speculation over her political plans and immediately elevating her as a target for the field of Republican contenders.

MarketWatch.com: 

• China’s Stock Connect: More boom and bust?

CNBC:

• How Tesla(TSLA) could be cannibalizing itself. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 4.

• Chinese Economy "A Lot Worse Than You Think," Bloomberg Says. (graph)

• White House Admits, US States Need To Be Better Prepared For Fiscal Volatility.

• Japan QE Limit Approaching As Goldman Says BoJ Risks Losing Credibility. (graph)

• Germany Orders 100 Tanks To "Ensure Troops Are Ready To Respond To Russian Assertiveness".

• "I Wouldn't Say It's A Bubble," HSBC China Strategy Chief Says Of The Country's Leverage-Driven, Equity Frenzy. (video)

• VIX Closes At 5-Month Lows, BofA Warns Volatility Term Structure Is A "Significant Concern". (graph)

• Here's The Chart That Deutsche Bank Says Everyone Needs To Look At. (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Don't Fight The Fed. (graph)

• Dollar Soars By Most In 43 Months; Stocks, Oil Surge In Week After Worst Payrolls Since 2013. (graph)

• GE(GE) CEO Says Now Is A "Perfect Time To Be A Seller".

• Why The Fed Thinks The Middle Class Is In Worse Shape Than You Think, In Four Charts. (graph)

• Meet The Secretive Group That Runs The World.

• None Dare Call It Fraud - Its Just A "Savings Glut".

• Stan Druckenmiller's "Horrific Sense" Of Deja Vu: "I Know It's Tempting To Invest, But This Will End Very Badly".

• The Science-Fictional Foundation Under Paul Krugman - Part 1.

• The Science-Fictional Foundation Under Paul Krugman - Part 2.

• The Madness Of Crowds Of Central Bankers (Summarized In 1 Chart). (graph)

• Proxy War Crosses Border? Houthis Reportedly Clash With Saudi Troops Near Najran.

• ECB Tries To Fix Money Markets It Broke, Fails.

• Deutsche Bank Upgrades "Full Throttle" Hong Kong Exchange, Crazed Housewife Day Traders Cheer.

• As Bad As Things Were in 2007, They Are MUCH Worse Now. (graph)

• ISIS Releases 11 Minute Video Promising Another "Sept.11" Attack. (video)

• UK Housing Bubble Bursts: Sales Of Luxury Homes Crash By 80% As "Waves Of Wealthy People Are Leaving". (graph)

• China Cites "Insufficient Censorship" In Threat To Shut Down Sina Weibo. 

• 7 Years Later The "Very Serious People" Finally Ask: Was QE Worth It?

• Greek Negotiator "Shocks" Eurozone Officials, Behaves Like "Taxi Driver": Hope Of Greek Deal "Blown".

• Red Flags. (graph)

• China Trade Surplus Crashes As Exports & Imports Collapse In March. (graph)

• One Of These Chinese Things Is Not Like The Other. (graph)

• Bundesbank Warns German Banks To Expect At Least 50% Losses On Austrian "Black Swan". (graph)

Business Insider:

• OPEC is at risk of falling apart.

• With the 5-year anniversary of the BP oil spill, comes new offshore drilling regulations.

• The family that owns Wal-Mart may be selling $15.6 billion in shares.

• Spotify may soon be worth more than $8 billion.

• The Justice Department wants its employees to stop sleeping with prostitutes.

• Yemeni-Americans say the US has 'abandoned' them in a war zone.

• The ISIS takeover of a Palestinian refugee camp near Damascus shows how the group is expanding in Syria.

• Gap's tale of 2 brands shows how broke Americans really are.

• This was not a good week for Obama's Iran policy. Reports of a French fact-sheet that differed from a US government-issued statement suggested that there are no fewer than four different official versions circulating as to what was agreed to in Lausanne, Switzerland, on April 2nd, and that there are key differences between the US, Iranian, French, and EU-Iranian documents. 

• The economy has given the Fed an 'epic, historic window' to raise interest rates.

• Earnings expectations have been cut so low they might just get beat.

• Greece may have blown its best hope.

• The eurozone's economic crisis is far from over.

• China just revealed a terrifying new cyberweapon.

• 21-year-old Jordan Spieth runs away with the Masters, ties the record for lowest score ever.

Reuters:

• Most Brazilians favor impeachment, but few see Rousseff gone: poll. Almost two thirds of Brazilians favor the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff over a corruption scandal at state-run oil company Petrobras, but roughly as many doubt it would drive her from office, according to a poll released on Saturday. The survey by polling firm Datafolha showed 63 percent of respondents support impeachment in light of the widening police investigation into a huge kickback scheme at Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the oil giant is formally known. Still, 64 percent said they did not expect the scandal would be enough to cut short Rousseff's second term, which began in January. 

• Japan machinery orders fall, uncertain outlook keeps BOJ on edge. Japan's core machinery orders fell for a second straight month in February in a sign that business investment remains soft, and analysts say the smaller-than-expected decline won't necessarily allow policymakers to relax given an uncertain economic outlook. The 0.4 percent monthly fall in core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series, came as a recent run of weak indicators raised doubts about a sustainable economic rebound following a recession last year.

Financial Times:

• Hedge funds’ bets on strengthening dollar pay off.

Telegraph:

• The eurozone’s economic crisis is far from over. As the eurozone has continued to disappoint, more and more commentators have come to see it as resembling, or in danger of coming to resemble, Japan, writers Roger Bootle. 

• BlackRock(BLK): Fed tightening to trigger market tremors as liquidity evaporates. Complacent investors will be hurt as Fed raises rates, says BlackRock, as managing director warns central banks are running out of ammunition to deal with next crisis. 
  

FAS:

• Greece Not Moving on Structural Reforms in Aid Talks. Euro-region govt representatives "disappointed" about talks so far with Greece on structural reform measures, citing officials familiar with the matter. Greek side isn't moving at all, isn't ready to discuss a reduction of public service pensions, according to the report. Greek representative at April 8 deputy finance ministers' meeting said his country will be insolvent shortly. Greece has until April 20 to submit acceptable list of reforms, only then can EU Commission, ECB, IMF assess the measures in advance of EU finance ministers' meeting April 24 in Riga.

People's Daily:

• China Economy Faces Increasing Downward Pressure. Resources sectors face stronger downward pressure, Pan Jiancheng, an official with China's statistics bureau writes in an article.

China Times:

• China March Power Consumption Growth May Slow. Power use may grow less than 2% in 1Q, lower than the 2.5% growth in the first two months, citing Ouyang Changyu, deputy secretary-general of the China Electricity Council.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.25 +.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.50 +.25 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CBSH)/.58

• (OZRK)/.46

• (PBY).00

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for March is estimated at -$43.4B versus -$36.9B in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China FDI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as earnings concerns, Fed rate hike worries and technical selling offset buyout speculation, short-covering and euro weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,102.06 +1.70%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,102.06 +1.70%

• DJIA 18,057.65 +1.66%

• NASDAQ 4,995.98 +2.23%

• Russell 2000 1,264.77 +.73%

• S&P 500 High Beta 35.17 +2.24% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.08 +3.25% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,042.85 +1.55%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.05 +1.75%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,029.93 +1.49%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 509.58 +.94%

• Solactive US Cyclical 138.91 +1.51%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,024.39 +2.36%

• Transports 8,767.83 +1.89%

• Utilities 591.40 +.26%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 120.33 +1.82%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.48 +2.93%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,221.69 +1.03%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 998.59 -.52%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 241,020 +.95%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 189 +232

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.7% -67.59%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 252,043 +11.2%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,743,733 +.21%

• Total Put/Call .85 -24.11%

• OEX Put/Call .84 +211.11%

• ISE Sentiment 107.0 +57.35%

• NYSE Arms .79 +51.92%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.58 -14.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.18 -3.07%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.24 -3.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.89 -2.08%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,723.20 +.37%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.633 Trillion -.02%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.338 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.7 -18.9%
• AAII % Bears 24.2 -24.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 217.12 +.48%

• Crude Oil 51.64 +4.22%

• Reformulated Gasoline 180.73 +2.0%

• Natural Gas 2.51 -6.97%

• Heating Oil 176.61 +4.53%

• Gold 1,204.60 +.18%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 172.85 +1.19%

• Copper 273.40 +.09%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 47.53 USD/Ton +.96%

• Lumber 266.80 unch.

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,116.63 -1.91%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.0% +120.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0714 +2.06%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.99 -.01%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.2 -4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.90 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +4.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 99.34 +2.68%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.10 -2.37%

• Yield Curve 139.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.95% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.445 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.94 +195%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 175.0 -2.50%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.91 -2.45%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 58.41 -.29%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33361 -1.77%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.76 -2.77%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 340.76 -2.77%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 342.85 -8.01%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 115.24 +.56%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 26.0 unch

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.41 -4.12%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,130.0 +1.03%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 62.46 -8.72%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 297.33 -4.40%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.985 Trillion +.06%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,018.80 +.80%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 282,250 -3,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.66% -4.0 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 458.90 +.42%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.9 +1.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.40/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 580.0 -2.68%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 969.06 -2.59%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0+9.09%
• Rail Freight Carloads 271,127 -2.59%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.1%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.7%

• Oil Tankers +5.4%

• Gaming +5.3%

• Biotech +5.2%

• Energy +4.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Coal -.4% 

• I-Banks -.4%

• Education -1.2%

• Homebuilders -2.1%

• REITs -2.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• AGRX, NHTC, VTAE, MYL, ZEP, SQBG, CLAC, AXTA, EPAM, AGTC, CCO, FRPT, PLAY, FGL, INFA, NRZ, PIR and WBMD

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• FCH, DERM, LGF, CBMG and OCUL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change