Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • Moody’s Cuts Credit Outlook on Chinese Financial Firms, SOEs. Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit-rating outlook on 38 Chinese state-owned enterprises and 25 financial institutions after the agency’s decision to lower the country’s sovereign credit-rating outlook. The SOEs’ outlook was reduced to negative, Moody’s said in a Thursday statement, a day after it issued a separate release downgrading the non-insurance financial firms to negative from stable. The financial institutions include three policy banks, 12 domestic commercial banks and three distressed asset-management companies, Moody’s said March 2. The SOE and financial downgrades followed Moody’s decision to lower its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating on Wednesday to negative from stable. The agency highlighted the country’s surging debt burden and questioned the government’s ability to enact reforms.
  • China's Busiest Internet Banker Warns of `Lawless' Markets. China’s most prolific Internet dealmaker has issued a stern warning about the dangers facing investors in “lawless” venture capital and startup markets, urging regulators to step in and curb irrational investment and asset bubbles. Individual investors lured by promises of extravagant returns are flooding into the high-risk realm of venture capital, Fan Bao, head of China Renaissance Partners, wrote in a column. They’re disrupting markets by inflating values and could get burned when the bubble bursts, he wrote in the influential business magazine Caixin. “The influx of retail investors into primary markets is dangerous,” he wrote in a piece penned in Chinese and published online this week. “This market isn’t suitable for retail investors, it’s not the same as in secondary markets where price fluctuations correct rapidly. Primary markets aren’t liquid, there’s no process for regulating risk, and retail investors could lose their shirts.” That’s a stark warning from one of the most visible players in China’s Internet boom. It echoes the views of economists and market participants who’ve argued that easy monetary policy is boosting liquidity, stoking a retail investor frenzy and encouraging investment bubbles.
  • Brazil Holds Rate at 14.25% on Bet Downturn to Damp Prices. Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting on the view that the deepest recession in decades, steep borrowing costs and weaker global growth will combine to slow inflation dramatically. Policy makers, led by President Alexandre Tombini, held the key rate at a nine-year high of 14.25 percent on Wednesday, as forecast by 44 of 46 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The remainder of economists expected an increase of 25 or 50 basis points. Two members of the eight-person central bank board, Tony Volpon and Sidnei Correa Marques, voted for a half-point hike.
  • Asian Stocks Extend Rally as Oil Rises Toward $35; Ringgit Rises. Asian stocks rose to an eight-week high, emerging-market currencies strengthened and oil climbed toward $35 a barrel, buoyed by improving U.S. economic data and prospects for further stimulus in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for its biggest three-day rally since August, led by banks and raw-materials producers. U.S. crude advanced for a fourth day after data showing declines in American oil production. Malaysia’s ringgit and South Korea’s won led gains among major currencies, while the Japanese yen was the biggest loser. Yields on Australian government debt due in a decade rose to a two-week high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2 percent as of 11:06 a.m. Tokyo time, building on a 3.7 percent advance over the last two days.
  • Why the Outlook for Oil Prices Remains Weak. (video)
  • Costco(COST) Profit Drops as Demand Wanes From Higher-Income Shoppers. Costco Wholesale Corp. posted second-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates as higher-income shoppers show signs of curtailing spending. Net income fell 8.7 percent to $546 million, or $1.24 a share, the Issaquah, Washington-based company said Wednesday in a statement. Analysts estimated $1.28 a share, on average. Same-store sales in the U.S., a closely watched measure by investors, increased 4 percent excluding the negative impacts from gasoline price deflation and foreign exchange, compared with an estimate of 4.9 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Insurers Probed on Hepatitis C Drug Coverage. New York state’s attorney general investigates alleged restrictions on expensive but effective drugs. New York’s attorney general is investigating state health-insurance companies for allegedly restricting coverage of drugs that can cure hepatitis C, saying that the firms have inappropriately rationed care by denying patients expensive but effective medication.
  • Indicted Ex-Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon Dies in Car Crash. 56-year-old was killed after his vehicle hit a wall at speeds exceeding the local limit.
  • SunEdison’s(SUNE) Troubles Darken Prospects of Vivint Deal. The mounting financial woes of SunEdison have jeopardized the solar-energy company’s plans to purchase Vivint Solar
  • Trump University Fraud Suit Can Proceed, Appeals Court Rules. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman had alleged education program had defrauded students. A fraud allegation against Donald Trump’s education program can move forward, a New York state appeals court said Tuesday in a ruling likely to fuel controversy over an issue Mr. Trump’s opponents in the Republican presidential primaries have seized on in recent weeks.
  • Trump’s Pottery Barn GOP. Even as he wins, GOP resistance to his nomination builds. Donald Trump claims to have opposed the Iraq war before opposition was fashionable. So perhaps he won’t mind if we apply Colin Powell’s adaptation of the Pottery Barn rule to Mr. Trump’s attempted takeover of the Republican Party: If you break it, you bought it.
  • A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners. Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
Fox News:
  • Romney to deliver major speech on 2016 race. (video) Mitt Romney plans to deliver a major speech on the state of the 2016 race for the White House Thursday, amid rising panic among some Republican leaders that Donald Trump may be cruising to the nomination
  • DOJ reportedly grants immunity to former State Dept staffer in Clinton email probe. (video) The Justice Department has reportedly granted immunity to a former State Department staffer who worked on Hillary Clinton’s private email server. A senior U.S. law enforcement official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that the FBI secured the cooperation of Bryan Pagliano, who worked on Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign before setting up the private server at her New York home in 2009.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
  • Only the IMF can now save Brazil. Brazil is heading straight into the arms of the International Monetary Fund. The sooner this grim reality is recognized by the country's leaders, the safer it will be for the world. The interwoven political and economic crisis has gone beyond the point of no return. The government is frozen. The finance ministry has lost the trust of Brazilian investors and global markets in equal measure.
Economic Information Daily:
  • China Property Market Speculators Use Crowd-Funding, P2P. Crowd funding and peer-to-peer lending are being used in property market speculation in Chinese tier-1 cities. Chinese government should improve supervision and curb excessive speculation.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.25 -2.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.0 unch
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.33 +.07%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (CBK)/-.14
  • (DG)/1.26
  • (PLCE)/1.11
  • (ARO)/-.13
  • (asps)/1.03
  • (loco)/.13
  • (FNSR)/.22
  • (ULTA)/1.54
  • (PAY)/.46
  • (ZUMZ)/.50
Economic Releases 
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for February.
8:30 am EST
  • Final 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -2.9% versus a prior estimate of a -3.0% decline.
  • Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +4.3% versus a +4.5% prior estimate.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 270K versus 272K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2250K versus 2253K prior.    
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus a prior estimate of 49.8. 
10:00 am EST:
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 53.1 versus 53.5 in January.
  • Factory Orders for January are estimated to rise +2.1% versus a -2.9% decline in December. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Services PMI, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Merrill Industrial/Energy/Infrastructure conference, (CY) analyst day and (ANGI) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Oil Reversal, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.34 -2.03%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.80 -.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.47 -1.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.48 +1.18%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +36.84%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -11.36%
  • NYSE Arms .40 -69.03
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.68 +.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,611.0 -31.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.50 -1.58%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.30 -1.57%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 72.97 -.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 353.83 +.28%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.12 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.29 +.37%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 99.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.50/Metric Tonne +2.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.10 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.50 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.10 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52% +3.0 basis points
  • 22.6% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 38.1% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China's Other Growth Figure Is Flashing a Warning. Obscured by the focus on the accuracy of China’s growth figures is a tumble in estimates for the economy without adjusting for inflation -- a slide that gives a clearer picture of why the country’s slowdown has stoked rising concern about its debt burden. Gross domestic product in dollars, unadjusted for price changes, rose just 4.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the same period of 2014 -- a gain of $439 billion. Just two years before, China added $1.1 trillion to the global economy, expanding 13 percent from a year earlier. "Looked at in this way, financial markets reaction to deteriorating Chinese data is more understandable," said Arthur Kroeber, the founding partner and managing director at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.
  • China's Default Risk Climbs Above Lower-Rated Philippines: Chart. The credit-default swaps market indicates China’s creditworthiness is worse than that of the Philippines, a country rated five grades lower at Moody’s Investors Service. The cost of insuring China’s sovereign bonds has risen by about twice as much over the past three months, having been roughly the same at the start of the period. Moody’s lowered the outlook on its China debt rating to negative from stable on Wednesday, citing concerns about rising public debt and falling foreign-exchange reserves.
  • Coeure Says ECB Watching Impact of Negative Rates on Banks. The European Central Bank is monitoring the risk that negative rates will hurt bank profitability while sticking to its commitment to deliver price stability first, Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said. “We are well aware of this issue,” Coeure said in a speech in Frankfurt on Wednesday. “We are studying carefully the schemes used in other jurisdictions to mitigate possible adverse consequences for the bank lending channel. But I also think we need to qualify the narrative that banks’ challenges flow largely from our monetary policy.” 
  • Luxottica Falls in Milan After Lowering Earnings Growth Outlook. Luxottica Group SpA fell in Milan after the Ray-Ban maker sunglasses curbed its earnings growth outlook as it invests more than 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) to revitalize and expand its business. Net income will increase at least 1.5 times the pace of sales each year through 2018, Milan-based Luxottica said late Tuesday after European markets closed. The company’s goal for the past six years has been twice as fast. The shares fell as much as 6 percent.
  • Untapped Loans Double Canadian Banks Oil Exposure to $80 Billion. Canadian banks’ exposure to the struggling oil-and-gas industry totals C$107 billion ($80 billion) when including untapped credit lines with outstanding loans, according to a review of company filings. That’s double the C$50 billion in total outstanding loans generally highlighted by Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bankand the country’s four other large lenders in quarterly earnings calls and presentations. The figure represented 2 percent of total lending as of Jan. 31. That only describes part of the picture. The banks also have exposure in the form of commitments, such as credit lines. They can potentially increase a bank’s risk, because the weakest borrowers often tap their entire credit line when nearing default. The banks’ exposure to oil-and-gas companies from outstanding loans and commitments range from about C$5 billion for National Bank of Canada to C$32 billion for Bank of Nova Scotia.
  • Banks Bloated on Sovereign Debt Weaken Italy in Row With Germany. A drive to tighten rules over how much sovereign debt banks are allowed to own has raised the alarm in the home of the euro region’s largest bond market. Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, vowed last month to veto any attempt to cap holdings, putting him at odds with Germany. Italian government securities account for 10.4 percent of the country’s bank assets, the most among major European economies and compared with 3.2 percent in Germany, the latest European Central Bank figures show. A limit would mean “altering the balance of the Italian banking system,” said Francesco Boccia, a lawmaker from Renzi’s Democratic Party who heads the budget committee in Italy’s lower house of parliament. “Banks are already struggling to lend money to small- and medium-sized companies,” he said. “This would be the final blow.” In essence, the euro region’s biggest debtor is on a collision course with its biggest paymaster over how to fix the failures of the past.
  • Stoxx Europe 600 Index Adds 0.6 Percent. (video)
  • Even a Modest Oil Recovery Is Doubted by Options Traders: Chart. (video) Oil reached an eight-week high of $37 a barrel in London, analysts predict a recovery to $47 in the fourth quarter and hedge funds are making record bullish bets, but options traders aren’t convinced. They are paying the most since July to protect against lower prices by the end of the year, compared with the cost of hedging the risk of more expensive crude. As U.S. production shows continued resilience to low prices, Iran returns to global markets and Saudi Arabia keeps pumping, options markets show the threat of “lower for longer” prices hasn’t disappeared.
  • Shale Oil Isn't Saudi Arabia's Only Nemesis. Even if Saudi Arabia wins its struggle with U.S. shale producers over market share, it will face a new billion-barrel adversary. It won’t be regional nemesis Iran, a resurgent Iraq or long-standing competitor Russia. The answer will be more prosaic: Even when overproduction ends, a stockpile surplus of more than 1 billion barrels built up since 2014 will remain, weighing on prices. Inventories will keep accumulating until the end of 2017, the International Energy Agency forecasts, and clearing the glut could take years.
  • World's Top Copper Miner Says Rally to Fade as Gluts Persist. Codelco, the world’s biggest copper producer, said that a global surplus will persist through this year and next, and dismissed suggestions that a recent gain in prices was likely to endure. The metal will probably fluctuate at around $2 to $2.10 a pound for a couple of years, with extreme volatility, Chairman Oscar Landerretche said in an interview in Florida. After the gluts this year and in 2017, the market may swing to a deficit of 50,000 to 100,000 metric tons in 2018, with the shortfall expanding to 300,000 to 400,000 tons in 2019, he said.
  • Williams Says Fed Rate Outlook Could Change Slightly After March. Interest-rate forecasts the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee is set to publish after its March meeting could differ “slightly” from those issued at the end of last year, according to Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams. There “could be a tweak here or there” in projections known as the dot plot, Williams told reporters Wednesday in San Ramon, California. He declined to comment on whether he’d support a rate increase at the FOMC’s March 15-16 meeting, and said he won’t “opine” on how often policy makers will tighten borrowing costs this year.
  • Earnings Downgrades Turning Into Deluge as First Quarter Craters. (graph) The pace at which earnings estimates are being cut is getting worse, not better. While bulls cling to predictions that profit growth will resume for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies in 2016, analysts just reduced income estimates for the first quarter at a rate that more than doubled the average pace of deterioration in the last five years. Forecasts plunged by 9.6 percentage points in the last three months, with profits now seen dropping the most since the global financial crisis, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
  • Wall Street's No. 1 Technical Analyst Says 'Fade This Breakout'. One of the most widely-followed Wall Street analysts isn’t convinced that the recent rally in U.S. stocks means the worst is over. While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 2.4 percent surge Tuesday pushed it through its average price over the past 50 days and above the 1,950 level, the three-week rally that’s restored more than $1.5 trillion to U.S. shares hasn’t come with sufficient trading volume or lifted enough individual stocks to signal an end to the recent downturn, said Jeff deGraaf, chairman at New York-based Renaissance Macro Research LLC. “This entire 150-point rally has been one of the weaker rallies in my 25-year career,” deGraaf, the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor’s annual survey for the last 11 years, wrote in a note Wednesday. The market’s long-term trend has stayed bearish and with more stocks showing signs of rising too far too fast investors should “fade this breakout,” he said. “We appreciate price momentum, but it has to be contextualized.”
  • Monsanto(MON) Cuts Profit Forecast on Herbicide Price Decline. Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed producer, cut its full-year profit forecast as lower prices for its glyphosate herbicide and a devalued Argentine peso add to the pressures from weaker agricultural markets. The St. Louis-based company now sees profit excluding one-time items of $4.40 to $5.10 a share, it said Wednesday in a statement, compared with a January prediction of $5.10 to $5.60. The shares fell 4.3 percent to $88.48 at 9:31 a.m. in New York.
  • De Blasio Says Clinton Need Not Disclose Her Wall Street Talks. (video) New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to release transcripts of speeches she gave to employees of Wall Street firms such as the Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for which she was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars. De Blasio, who endorsed Clinton in October after remaining neutral for several months, said Clinton’s stand on Wall Street regulation was more important than what she may have said privately to groups of executives.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
  • Why Trump can't be president. (video) We've been telling Trump supporters that he is a racist, a sexist, and a bigot, as reasons for why Trump should not and cannot be the next president of the United States. We have been going about this all wrong. There is really only one reason Trump supporters should not support Trump: He is not qualified. And by that, I mean that he is not qualified to deliver on any of his promises
  • Pro Insight: Santelli talks with Peter Boockvar. In a Santelli Exchange interview exclusive to CNBC Pro subscribers, Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar discusses the impact of Federal Reserve monetary policy. "'Short termism,' that's their entire policy," Boockvar said. "They have no clue whatsoever of when to get out of it (easy monetary policy)."
  • Citron exec: This is Tesla’s biggest problem. (video) Shares of Tesla Motors will have a hard time going higher because of the news surrounding the company, Andrew Left, Citron Research's executive editor, said Wednesday. "What I underestimated [about] Tesla the first time is, when the Model S was introduced, nine of 10 stories were saying how great the car is, and the stock just followed. Right now, there's more balance," he told CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report." "If you look at the Geneva auto show, which happened last week, it's no longer about if someone will have long-range electric vehicles in 2019-20, it will be who doesn't have them."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Supreme Court Nominee Looms Large for Voters. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 81% of Likely U.S. Voters say the selection of a new U.S. Supreme Court justice is important to their vote in November, with 60% who say it’s Very Important. Only 16% say the nomination of the next justice is not very or Not At All Important when it comes to their voting decisions.
Telegraph:
  • Fresh recession will cause eurozone collapse, warns Swiss bank. A recession in Europe could lead to the collapse of the eurozone, as the single currency would buckle under the political turmoil unleashed by a fresh downturn, a leading investment bank has warned. In a research note titled "Close to the edge", economists at Swiss bank Credit Suisse warned the fate of monetary union hangs in the balance if Europe's policymakers are unable to ward off another global slump and quell anti-euro populism. "The viability of the euro is contingent on the current recovery," said Peter Foley at Credit Suisse. "If the euro area were to relapse back into recession, it is not clear it would endure."
  • UK exposed to steel deluge as US clamps down on Chinese imports. The UK’s embattled steel sector faces fresh pressure after the US government stepped in to protect its domestic industry against the growing glut of cheap Chinese supply, industry groups have warned. UK steel producers have been dealt a double blow by the US plans to impose crippling import duties of up to 266pc against Chinese companies, and around 30pc against UK steel makers. This could result in more Chinese exports being diverted to Europe while making it more expensive for UK firms to sell their wares in the US.
The Globe and Mail:
  • Trudeau, Obama set to endorse continental strategy on climate change. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is poised to sign on to a continental environment and climate-change strategy with outgoing President Barack Obama when the two leaders hold their first formal bilateral meeting in the Oval Office next Thursday. International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, who chairs the cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations, told The Globe and Mail that the White House talks will also result in improved border-security measures and steps to conclude a new softwood-lumber agreement. Canadian and U.S. officials are now working hard behind the scenes to present an environmental and climate-change package for the leaders to announce, but the exact details of what it entails are being kept closely under wraps. But sources say the agreement is expected to deal with tighter fuel and auto-emission standards and measures to foster innovation such as electric cars, charging stations, self-driving vehicles and ride-sharing apps.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -.9% 2) Software -.7% 3) Internet -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BGFV, COT, ASPS, CBPO, CVGW, PAM, NAII, USM, AVGR, KONA, MON, XRAY, BT, WK, GKOS, PAHC, TOUR, WDAY, DLTR, GLOB, CODI, ALDW, BUD, CIEN, AYA, DATA and ROVI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SMH 2) BHI 3) XME 4) MON 5) FCX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JOY 2) DLTR 3) FB 4) MON 5) CVGW
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Mid-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.9% 2) Steel +2.8% 3) Banks +.9% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • CKP, NPTN, BOBE, DAR, X and SEDG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) DRII 2) ASNA 3) CLDX 4) GME 5) RRC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) ROST 2) MDT 3) CME 4) MCK 5) CVS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: