Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.1% 2) Gold & Silver +1.6% 3) Gaming +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MFRM, MTN, BID, QVCA, CRC, HZNP, ADXS, BRS, BETR, ECPG, CPSI and QVCA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QVCA 2) AMJ 3) LC 4) TRGP 5) GIS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MFRM 2) SCSS 3) EAC 4) HTM 5) CC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 58.5% of Issues Advancing, 37.6% Declining
• 145 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 61.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.9%
• Vix 11.7 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.28 +39.1%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -20.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin Senses Syria Victory That’ll Cement Assad, Confound U.S. Vladimir Putin may be on the cusp of a pivotal victory in Syria’s civil war that would make it much harder for the U.S. to achieve its stated goal of ousting Bashar al-Assad without a major military escalation. Assad’s troops, backed by Russian air power, are bearing down on rebels entrenched in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city before fighting erupted in 2011. Reclaiming Syria’s commercial capital would give Assad control over all major population centers and cement his hold on a contiguous swath of land from Turkey to Jordan that makes up almost half of the country. “Russia will stick to its guns in Syria and show the whole world we are right,” Frants Klintsevich, deputy head of the defense committee in the upper house of parliament, said by phone from Moscow. Driving the last rebel groups out of Aleppo within a few months is now “quite realistic,” he said.
• Hostile Raid on China Developer Flashes Shadow-Banking Warnings. China’s most high-profile battle for corporate control is casting a spotlight on one of the murkiest corners of its booming shadow-banking system. For almost eight months, the nation’s biggest developer, China Vanke Co. has been trying to fend off a little-known firm it depicts as a corporate raider. Amid the finger-pointing, a more important issue for regulators and investors in China’s securities markets may lie in the way the investor -- Baoneng Group --- has financed some of its stock purchases to become Vanke’s biggest shareholder. Baoneng used funding structures known as asset-management plans, or AMPs, to help amass a 25.4 percent stake worth around 43 billion yuan ($6.5 billion) in Vanke. Backed by banks already burdened with surging bad loans, such products have become a popular way of financing stock purchases. The concern is that these funds use leverage, exposing banks and other investors to losses in the event of a steep decline in share prices. They’re also fanning a debate about whether shadow-banking risks are threatening to engulf the Chinese financial system.
• The Seven-Year Short. Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors has been betting that China’s currency will collapse. He’s not about to give up now.
• Iran Hangs Nuclear Scientist for Giving U.S. Secret Information. Iran said it executed a nuclear scientist accused of having provided “secret information” to the U.S., confirming earlier reports of his death by foreign media. Shahram Amiri “was hanged for spying for the U.S.,” Tasnim news agency reported, citing judicial spokesman Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei. Amiri had access to secret information and “established contact with Iran’s number 1 enemy, meaning the U.S., and relayed essential intelligence,” Mohseni-Ejei said. The U.S. transferred Amiri to its territory via Saudi Arabia, Mohseni-Ejei said without providing details, saying Iran had been aware of his contacts with U.S. intelligence services. Following his return to Iran, Amiri was tried and sentenced to death, the official said, refuting statements he had been sentenced to 10 years in jail.
• Aussie AAA at Risk Prompts Push by Treasurer on Budget Savings. Australia’s Treasurer Scott Morrison warned of risks to the nation’s top credit rating and urged opposition and minor party lawmakers to back plans aimed at reining in the budget deficit. Australia’s credit score “remains more generally under risk because of the impact of global parameters hitting our budget,” Morrison said in a television interview on Sunday with Sky News. “It will be difficult to retain that rating under existing economic circumstances, and we’ll work very hard to achieve it, but what makes that job easier is passing savings that restore the budget to balance.”
• Asia Stocks Rise, Led by Japan, as Yen Falls After U.S. Payrolls. Asian stocks rose as the yen weakened after a strong U.S. jobs report, sending Japanese exporters higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2 percent to 136.04 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index gained 1.1 percent after nonfarm payrolls climbed by 255,000 last month, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 89 economists. The yen fell 0.3 percent to 102.08 per dollar, after dropping 0.6 percent on Friday as demand for haven assets waned.
• Singapore Faces Risk of More Oil Bond Defaults. Singapore bondholders and lenders, already stung by Swiber Holdings Ltd.’s woes, face mounting pain as a drop in oil leaves more companies in the industry starved for cash. Investment bank UOB Kay Hian Pte warned last week that the sector may suffer a "cascade" of defaults. Bank of Singapore Ltd. said sustained weakness in crude prices could increase risks. Oil-related firms face S$1.4 billion ($1 billion) of Singapore dollar bonds maturing through 2018, with S$325 million due by the year end, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The borrowing that helped build one of Singapore’s biggest export industries is showing signs of strain as crude has tumbled about 19 percent from its high for the year in June. The pain is part of a broader global trend in which smaller, independent oil and gas companies have stumbled. U.S. firms Halcon Resources Corp. and Atlas Resource Partners LP filed for bankruptcy at the end of July.
• Western Europe’s Biggest Oil Producer Has a Surprise for Markets. If oil production continued to exceed at the same pace for the remainder of the year, it would rise to 91.5 million cubic meters from 90.8 million cubic meters in 2015, Bloomberg calculations based on NPD figures show. That would defy a forecast drop and mean output unexpectedly rose for a second year. It would also be a third consecutive annual increase, after output halved from a peak in 200.
• Libya Starts Work at Biggest Oil Port in Step to Increase Output. Libya has started maintenance work at Es Sider port, the nation’s largest oil export terminal, as part of plans to increase output from Africa’s biggest holder of crude reserves. Exports should resume in a month once official orders are received to reopen the port, Galal Mohamed, head of operations at Waha Oil Co. , said in a phone interview Sunday from Libya’s eastern city of Ras Lanuf. Es Sider, operated by Waha Oil, has been closed since December 2014 when armed groups attacked the port. 
• Steinhoff to Acquire Mattress Firm for About $2.4 Billion. Steinhoff International Holdings NV agreed to buy Mattress Firm Holding Corp. for about $2.4 billion, a deal that vaults the South African discount retailer into the U.S. market while creating the world’s largest bedding giant.

Wall Street Journal:

• Oil’s Drop Stokes Worries About a Slippery Slope in Stocks, Junk Bonds. Some money managers fear the recent slide in crude will erode investor sentiment and spread to U.S. shares and high-yield debt.
• Clinton Short-Circuits the Truth. To avoid admitting that she lied, Hillary offers a ‘master class in obfuscation.’

Fox News:

• ISIS claims to have captured trove of U.S. military gear. (video) ISIS fighters in Afghanistan claimed to have recently seized a trove of sensitive U.S. military equipment – including communications gear, a rocket launcher and the ID card of a U.S. soldier –but it remains unclear how the items came into the terror group’s possession.

CNBC:

• Obamacare users in New York brace for double-digit 2017 premium hikes. Come 2017, thousands of New York's Obamacare users will wake up to double-digit premium hikes, the latest group of consumers affected by Affordable Care Act cost increases as insurers hemorrhage money from healthcare exchanges.

Zero Hedge:  

• The S&P Is Now Set To Report Its Second Consecutive Annual Earnings Drop Since The Financial Crisis. (graph)
• German, Austrian Politicians Compare Erdogan To Hitler.
• Japan Protests After Discovering Chinese Military Radar In Disputed Waters, Fleet Of 300 Chinese Vessels.
• CNN Host Slams America's Greatest Olympian Ever For Not Being Black, Muslim Woman.
• The Trick To Staying Sane In The Market's New Normal Ponzi Narrative.
• "Sell Everything"... But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?
• The Warren Buffett Economy: How Central-Bank-Enabled Financialization Divided America.
• Global Equity Rally Facing Next Big Hurdle. (graph)
• John Mauldin Warns "Don't Be So Sure That States Can't Go Bankrupt".
• Iran Executes Nuclear Scientist For Spying For The U.S.
• 14% Of Americans Have Negative Wealth.
• About That Upcoming "Fiscal Stimulus" - It Is Already Running Full Blast. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The biggest security threat to the US might not be ISIS or Al-Qaeda.
• 3 danger signs pointing to a looming recession.
• GOLDMAN(GS): There will be 'no medal winners' in the stock market because everything is too expensive.
• Brexit was nothing compared to what's coming.
• 'They are hurting right now': The oil patch and has been decimated.
• BLACK SWAN FUND: 'There's going to be chaos'.

Financial Times:

• Fed’s Powell warns US at risk of being trapped in low growth. Era of weak long-term growth a rising concern for central bank’s board member. There is an increasing risk that the US economy has become trapped in a prolonged period of subdued growth that requires lower official rates than was previously expected, a leading Federal Reserve policymaker has warned.

China Securities Journal:

• China 2016 Property Investment Growth May Be Less Than 5%. Property development investment will slow in 2H as the date lags behind sales by 6 months, a team of researchers at the State Information Center writes. Room for interest rate cut is limited, he said. Transactions in second-tier cities will drop in 2H.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.25 -3.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 45.5 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.56 -.08%.
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (AGN)/3.33
• (DF)/.40
• (BID)/1.04
• (TSN)/1.06
• (CSC)/.45
• (HTZ)/.59
• (MBI)/.12
• (MCHP)/.75
• (NWSA)/.12
• (SINA)/.17
• (WB)/.10
• (WBMD)/.39 

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Labor Market Conditions Index for July.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Inflation/Trade Balance reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as commodity weakness, diminishing central bank hopes and profit-taking offset investor performance angst, short covering and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• S&P 500 Rises to Record as Dollar Gains on Jobs Data; Bonds Fall. (video) Traders sent U.S. stocks to a record after better-than-forecast jobs data underscored the strength of the world’s largest economy. The dollar rose and Treasuries fell as the report also bolstered the case for higher interest rates. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index closed above their all-time highs, while the dollar strengthened against most of its 16 major peers, as payrolls exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 89 economists. Yields on two-year notes, the most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, rose for the first time in four days. Gold, oil and copper retreated. European shares climbed amid thin trading volume. The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, advancing for a third day. The index has climbed 19 percent since hitting a 22-month low back in February. Technology giants Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. paced gains in the Nasdaq Composite, which added 1.1 percent. 
• 8,000 Syrian Refugees Enter U.S. as Obama Looks to Meet Goal. The Obama administration expects to hit its goal of admitting 10,000 Syrian refugees to the U.S. by the end of September, officials said Friday. "We can now say we have welcomed 8,000 Syrian refugees so far this year and we are very confident we will welcome at least 10,000 refugees from Syria by the end of this fiscal year," Anne Richard, assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, said in a conference call with reporters.
• Syrian Rebels Break Siege of Opposition Neighborhoods in Aleppo. Syrian rebels cut through government forces in southern Aleppo, Al Jazeera TV reported Saturday, ending a weeks-long siege of 275,000 civilians in opposition-controlled neighborhoods in the city. The rebel offensive, led by an Islamist alliance that includes fighters formerly pledged to al-Qaeda, overran several military bases this week. Syrian government forces, supported by Iranian-backed militias and Russian air power, besieged eastern Aleppo in July in what a monitoring group said was their most significant advance in the province since 2013.
• Japan Says Chinese Ships Near Disputed Islands Should Leave. Japan’s government made an official demand for vessels from China that are surrounding a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea to leave and not return, saying their presence could cause escalated tensions between the two nations.
• Shale Drillers Add Oil Rigs for Longest Streak in a Year. U.S. oil drillers added rigs for the sixth-straight week, marking the longest period of expansion in a year as the shale patch revives from the worst downturn in a generation. Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose by 7 to 381 in the past week, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. Explorers have now added 51 rigs since June 24, expanding activity in nine of the past 10 weeks. The rise was prompted by a rebound in prices that peaked in June before falling off again. 
• Goldman Warns ‘Supply Storm’ to Engulf Global Copper Market. (video)
• Florida Shudders as Zika Spread Forces Miami Shops to Close. (video) Cafes and art galleries in Miami’s Wynwood Art District would normally be bustling this week, even during some of the hottest days of the year, but with Zika virus spreading in the area, businesses like Wynwood Yard and Gallery 212 are keeping their doors shut. There were 16 cases of mosquito-transmitted Zika reported in the mainland U.S. as of Friday, and health officials have traced most to a square-mile area north of downtown Miami. Empty streets there reminded Gallery 212 owner Michael Perez of when he had to temporarily close a store in New York in 2001, after the Sept. 11 attacks. “I’m just like living my life all over again, with this Zika thing,” he said in a telephone interview. “It’s crazy, the streets are bare right now.”
• U.S. Farmland Prices Fall $10 an Acre in First Drop Since 2009. U.S. farmland values in 2016 dropped for just the second time in almost three decades after grain and soybean prices extended a slump, eroding grower profit and capping a decade-long boom when land costs jumped 65%. Farmland values in the lower 48 states, including land used for crops and for livestock, declined $10 to $3,010 an acre, the first drop since 2009, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday in a report. Cropland declined 1 percent to $4,090 an acre, while pastureland was unchanged at $1,330 an acre. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Two Policewomen Wounded in Machete Attack in Belgian City of Charleroi. Assailant who shouted ‘Allahu akbar’ shot by authorities and later dies.
• The All-Time Regulation Record. Team Obama has hit 600 major rules, and 50 more may follow. The progressive explanation for the slowest economic recovery in nearly 70 years is that expansions after financial crises are always like this. There appears to be no statute of limitations on this excuse, which is especially convenient every four years. But those who want more than a political rationalization might look to the all-time presidential record of costly regulation set by the Obama Administration.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ISBC), (DY), (VMC), (JEC), (FIS), (IR), (AMGN), (RHI), (HBI), (AVGO), (PPG) and (RCL).
• Had bearish commentary on (MNRO).

Fox News:

• At GOP urging, Trump turns focus on Clinton emails, 'short circuit' explanation. (video) Donald Trump this weekend pounced on Hillary Clinton’s email scandal and her continuing efforts to fully explain her culpability, amid Republicans and other supporters now repeatedly urging him to stick with his likely best winning strategy. “The more the they talk about the emails the worse it gets,” David Morey, of the international strategy firm DMG Global, on Saturday told Fox News’ “America’s News Headquarters.

CNBC: 

• Analyst warns Zika in 2016 could morph into the Ebola scare of 2014. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Lead Attorney In Anti-Clinton DNC Fraud Case Mysteriously Found Dead.
• Machete-Wielding Man Shouting "Allahu Akbar" Shot Dead After Attacking Two Belgian Police Officers.
• Why Oil Under $40 Will Bring It All Down Again: That's Where SWFs Resume Liquidating.
• Government "Is" The Problem, Stupid!
• MF Global 5 Years Later: PWC Set To Take The Fall As Corzine Still Untouched.
• Meet IDI: The Company That Has "Weaponized" Profiles On Every American Adult.
• Why This Job Market Is Still Terrible: The Politically Incorrect Numbers Everyone Is Hushing Up. (graph)
• An Update On The Obamacare Disaster.
• BofA: "45% Of The Global Bond Market Is Now Compromised By Central Bank Buying".
• 3 Simple Charts That Help Explain Why 9,000 Businesses Have Left California In Just 7 Years.
• Record P/Es & A "Too Big To Fail" Market Explained.
• Is CMBS The Next "Shoe To Drop"? GGP Sales Suggest Commercial Real Estate Crashing.
• Rigged Game: Ever Wonder How Wall Street Analysts Are So Good At Forecasting? Hint, It's Not Their Excel Skills.
• Only In China: Companies Become Banks To 'Solve' Financial Difficulties.
• Connecting The Nuclear 'Dots'.
• "Crowds Are Stupid; Wisdom Is Solitary" - The 'Mommy-and-Daddy' Politics Of America.
• Carl Icahn Has Never Been More Short The Market, Is Pressing For A Crash.
• Student, Auto Loans Hit Record High As Credit Card Debt Surges. (graph)
• "The Bull Market Just Won't Die", Citi Laments As It Sees "Red" Everywhere.
• Weekend Reading: The Global Dichotomy. (graph)
• Stocks Soar To Record Highs Thanks To Biggest Seasonal Jobs Adjustment In A Decade. (graph)

Business Insider:

• CLINTON: 'I may have short-circuited' when I said the FBI director said I was 'truthful'.
• Trump’s plunge in polls has Republicans starting to panic about how it could affect others on ballot.
• Olympic rowers blasted the 'horrific' and 'unrowable' conditions after the Serbian boat capsized.
• The depressing reality of the world economy in one chart.
• Everyone is underestimating Walmart's(WMT) ability to crush Amazon(AMZN).
• Here's what happens if Trump decides to quit.
• Fire sweeps through a bar in France, killing 13 people and injuring several others.
• There have now been 666 interest rate cuts worldwide since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
• One of the biggest threats to the Rio Olympics will come from the internet.
• Wall Street is now bracing for its worst 2 years since the financial crisis.
• Tesla(TSLA) says the cost of its massive Gigafactory could exceed expectations.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,181.17 +.34%* 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change