Monday, October 03, 2016

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 3:35 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.4% 2) Hospitals -2.3% 3) REITs -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TASR, KNL, FGP, OPHT, KBR, CQH, SCSS, IDE, MYOK, CALM, ETH, HRTX, LSI, FANG, ALGN, FRT, CEMP, TDC, PG, LQDT, DVA, NEP, SWC, CNC and ASH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UA 2) CNX 3) MMM 4) VLO 5) HAL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TDC 2) THC 3) AES 4) NTGR 5) SON
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:56 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.6% 2) Airlines +.7% 3) Alt Energy +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CAB, WGO, JNS, DVAX, RRD, CTSH, PETX, CATM, INSY, CRR, CATM and XTLY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CAB 2) VHC 3) ETSY 4) TASR 5) THC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CTSH 2) TDC 3) APO 4) INSY 5) RATE
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:44 PM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, October 02, 2016

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:45 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:    
  • Chinese Cities Introduce Curbs to Cool Overheated Property. Local governments in seven Chinese cities tightened rules for home purchases over the past three days in a bid to damp resurgent demand and rein in excessive speculation. Authorities in those metropolitan areas introduced measures ranging from raising down-payment requirements for both first and second homes to ruling some potential buyers ineligible. Sichuan’s provincial capital Chengdu and Henan’s provincial capital Zhengzhou on Sunday banned people from buying a third property in some areas. Wuxi, a southern manufacturing base close to Shanghai, raised down-payment requirements for second homes to a minimum of 40 percent of the property’s value from 30 percent previously. 
  • Pimco Warns of Rising Asia Debt After Record Dollar Bond Sales. Pacific Investment Management Co. is wary of the risks of rising debt levels after sales of dollar bonds by borrowers in the Asia-Pacific region ballooned to a record. Issuance surged 66 percent last quarter from the year earlier to $152 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Borrowers have rushed to lock in lower financing costs as the average yield premium on the securities has fallen 72 basis points this year to 206, near the lowest since 2007, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.
  • Singapore Home Prices Have Biggest Drop in More Than Seven Years. Singapore home prices had their steepest drop in more than seven years as the government holds steadfast on property cooling measures that it rolled out in 2009. An index tracking private residential prices fell 1.5 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from the previous quarter, the biggest decline since June 2009. Prices fell for the 12th straight quarter, the longest streak of quarterly losses when prices were first published in 1975, according to preliminary data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority Monday.
  • Japan Tankan Corporate Sentiment Gauge Misses Expectations. Japan’s large manufacturers don’t see business conditions getting any better, and they don’t see them getting any worse. At least for now. Still, they remained more downbeat over the past quarter than expected, and the least optimistic in more than three years, underscoring the effects of a stronger currency and weak global growth. This will likely make it more challenging for the Bank of Japan to stoke inflation and revitalize the economy.
  • Asian Stocks Advance as Japan Shares Climb, Bank Concerns Ease. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from a one week low, as worries over the health of European banks eased and Japanese shares climbed on a weakening yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 140.12 as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.8 percent as the yen traded at 101.53 against the U.S. dollar, weakening for a fifth straight session. Relief swept over equity markets on Friday as Agence France-Presse reported Deutsche Bank AG is near a $5.4 billion deal with the U.S. Department of Justice, less than half the initial amounted requested to settle a probe related to bad mortgages.
  • Oil Drops as U.S. Adds Drill Rigs While Iran Seeks Export Boost. Oil declined from the highest close in six weeks as U.S. producers increased drilling and Iran signaled it’s seeking to boost exports after OPEC members agreed to reduce output at a meeting last week. Futures dropped as much as 1 percent in New York after advancing 8 percent during the previous three sessions. Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose a fifth consecutive week to the highest level since February, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website Friday. Iran wants to increase exports to 2.35 million barrels a day in the coming months, state news agency IRNA reported. The OPEC member is currently shipping 2.2 million barrels a day.
Zero Hedge:
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung:
  • Bafin Head Warns of 'Negative Perception Spiral' on Banks. Not every "nervous reaction" by capital markets toward banks is justified by facts, Felix Hufeld, head of German financial regulator Bafin, says in an interview. Talk about state aid for Deutsche Bank is "pseudo debate", he said.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.5 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.99 +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 51.4 versus a prior estimate of 51.4.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in July.
  • ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to rise to 50.5 versus 49.4 in August.
  • ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 53.0 in August.  
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for September are estimated to rise to 17.4M versus 16.91M in August. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report, (ING) investor day and the (F) sales call could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 10:43 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on election uncertainty, global growth worries, commodity weakness, yen strength, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, October 01, 2016

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 7:28 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Deutsche Bank(DB) Charged Over Paschi Accounts as Legal Hits Mount. Deutsche Bank AG was dealt a fresh blow on Saturday when an Italian court charged the company, an employee and five former executives for colluding with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA to falsify the Italian lender’s accounts in 2008. Michele Faissola, who oversaw global rates at the time, and Ivor Dunbar, former co-head of global capital markets, were among those indicted in a Milan court. Both were top deputies to former Deutsche Bank co-chief executive officer Anshu Jain, and both have left the company.
  • Deutsche Bank’s(DB) Woes Put $2 Trillion of Bonds Beyond ECB’s Reach. The troubles of Deutsche Bank AG are making European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s job more complicated. The surge this week in relatively safe sovereign securities left about a third of the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index ineligible for purchase under the ECB’s quantitative-easing program. The gains mean $2.2 trillion of debt in the index now yields less than the institution’s deposit rate -- currently minus 0.4 percent -- and is therefore off-limits.
  • Fortunes of Dollar Will Turn on Whether Jobs Report Sways Fed. It would take a blow-out jobs report next week to get the dollar to move out of its slump. The greenback fell for a second week as foreign-exchange managers search for clues about the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The Oct. 7 employment data may shift market-based expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates this year. On Friday, they showed a 17 percent probability of a rate hike when the central bank meets in November and 59 percent for a move by December.
  • Near ‘Collapse,’ Minnesota to Raise Obamacare Rates by Half. Minnesota will let the health insurers in its Obamacare market raise rates by at least 50 percent next year, after the individual market there came to the brink of collapse, the state’s commerce commissioner said Friday. The increases range from 50 percent to 67 percent, Commissioner Mike Rothman’s office said in a statement. Rothman, who regulates the state’s insurers, is an appointee under Governor Mark Dayton, a Democrat. The rate hike follows increases for this year of 14 percent to 49 percent. “It’s in an emergency situation -- we worked hard and avoided a collapse.” Rothman said in a telephone interview. “It’s a stopgap for 2017.”
  • Hurricane Matthew Soaks Colombia, Heads for Jamaica, Haiti.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (BRCM) and (AMC).
  • Had bearish commentary on (DB).
Fox News:
CNBC:
  • Russia warns US of potential 'terrible' consequences if Syrian forces attacked. Russia warned the United States Saturday against carrying out any attacks on Syrian government forces, saying it would have repercussions across the Middle East as government forces captured a hill on the edge of the northern city of Aleppo under the cover of airstrikes. Russian news agencies quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying that a U.S. intervention against the Syrian army "will lead to terrible, tectonic consequences not only on the territory of this country but also in the region on the whole."
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