Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Steel +.9% 3) Telecom +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CYNO, GLBS, TCX, SWIR, SWKS, TGH, LPL, WAT, OLED, CSX, SSL, DISH, GNK, KATE and TGP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UNXL 2) OAS 3) LC 4) HD 5) PHM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TK 2) CSX 3) MCD 4) F 5) COG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 46.1% of Issues Advancing, 51.6% Declining
• 62 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 59.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.9%
• Vix 12.1 +5.1%
• Total Put/Call .96 -3.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.65 +107.8%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Slams Western Democracy as Flawed. China’s state media used Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president to warn about the perils of democracy, touting the relative stability of the Communist system as President Xi Jinping heads toward a twice-a-decade reshuffle of senior leadership posts. With ministries and senior officials stressing unity as a priority for China, smoothing the path for the party’s congress in the fourth quarter, state media were quick to highlight divisions within America shown by Trump’s elevation, without necessarily directly referencing the new president.
• PBOC Conducts 60 Billion Yuan China Open-Market Operations. China’s central bank added funds to the financial system through open-market operations on Sunday, after injecting a record amount of cash last week and offering liquidity support to some lenders. The monetary authority added a net 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) using 14-day and 28-day reverse-repurchase agreements. There are no contracts maturing Sunday. The People’s Bank of China pumped in a net 1.13 trillion yuan last week.
• These Companies Are at Risk in a U.S.-China Trade War. With the arrival of China-bashing Donald Trump as president in the White House, analysts are drawing up shortlists of winners and losers from any eruption of tensions between the world’s top two economies. It’s still far from clear how plans will shape up under Trump, who on the campaign trail blasted trade deals with China that generated record U.S. deficits. What is clear: China will retaliate against any protectionist steps -- not only are there reported contingency plans, but the historical example of measures against Japan when tensions flared in 2012.
• Theresa May Gets Another Brexit Headache Amid Brussels Upheaval. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s path to leave the European Union just got a little bit more complicated. The Socialist party, already struggling in France, Italy and the Netherlands, lost control of the European Parliament, which must approve any Brexit deal. The election last week signaled the end of a long-standing power-sharing agreement in the assembly, creating the possibility of division that could encumber May’s departure preparations.
• Yen Weighs on Japan Shares; Asia Stocks Tip Gains. The yen strengthened in early trading, likely weighing on shares in Tokyo when Japan’s market opens. Asian equities elsewhere were poised for gains. Stock-index futures in China, Australia, and Hong Kong pointed to a higher open for cash markets. Australian bonds declined. The dollar fell against Japan’s currency as Asian traders reacted for the first time to Donald Trump’s inauguration and comments by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the greenback could strengthen.
• OPEC and Friends Agree on a Way to Monitor Oil-Output Cuts. OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply. The countries have already cut oil supply by 1.5 million barrels a day, more than 80 percent of their collective target, since the deal took effect on Jan. 1, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih told reporters in Vienna. “Compliance is great -- it’s been really fantastic,” Al-Falih said Sunday. “Based on everything I know, I think it’s been one of the best agreements we’ve had for a long time.”
• Medical-Laser Maker Cynosure Said to Eye Sale in Strategy Review. Cynosure Inc., the maker of lasers for medical and cosmetic treatments, is exploring strategic options including a sale, according to people familiar with the matter, amid increasing interest in the technology from larger global companies.
• Foxconn Weighs $7 Billion U.S. Factory With Apple(AAPL), Nikkei Says. Foxconn Technology Group Chairman Terry Gou told reporters in Taipei the company is considering a joint investment with Apple Inc. for a display manufacturing facility in the U.S., according to a report by the Nikkei Asian Review. The facility would cost more than $7 billion and may create an eventual 30,000 to 50,000 jobs, the publication cited Gou as saying.

Wall Street Journal:

• Global Uncertainty Gets Brushed Off in the U.S. and Europe. Consumers and businesses appear undaunted by the prospect of profound political change. Economists warned for months that the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union could shake household and business confidence and hurt the economy, but it hasn’t played out that way.
• Trump Poised to Wield Executive Power to Make Immigration Changes. President can act on his own to deport more people, jump-start the border wall or restrict immigration from Syria.
• Investors Taper Bullish Bets as Trump Takes Office. Investors increase cash holdings, turn defensive as a hedge against possible rise in volatility.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Trump will not release tax returns, aide says, despite earlier promise to do so.

Fox News:

• Priebus defends Trump, top aide; says media has 'obsession' to 'delegitimize' president. (video)

CNBC:

• Trump rally isn't over, it just suffers from 'indigestion': PNC's Bill Stone. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• In Blistering Interview, Conway Tells Chuck Todd "We Are Going To Have To Rethink Our Relationship With The Press".
• Mass Exodus From High-Taxes - Which States Did Americans Leave In 2016?
• A Preview Of Trump's Seven Imminent Executive Orders.
• Trump May "Stop Enforcing Obamacare's Individual Mandate".
• Earnings Season So Far: 27 Of 42 Reporting Companies Cite "Trump" Or "Administration".
• Goldman(GS): "All Our Clients Are Confused And Unsettled".
• Ex-WSJ Reporter Finds George Soros Has Ties To More Than 50 "Partners" Of The Women’s March.
• The Last Time Oil Speculators Were This 'Long', Crude Collapsed. (graph)
• Nomi Prins Warns Financial Crash From Epic Debt, Asset Bubbles "Possible In Last Quarter 2017".
• Raoul Pal Warns The Day Of Reckoning Looms For VIX Shorts: "Reminds Me Of Portfolio Insurance In 1987". (graph)

Business Insider:

• Trump says he will begin renegotiating NAFTA pact soon with Mexico and Canada.
• Here is the stunning $1.5 billion stadium being built for the Atlanta Falcons.

Politico:

• Trump Seen Announcing Federal Workforce Freeze. President Trump in coming days is expected to announce a federal workforce freeze.

Bild am Sonntag:

• Le Pen Says Trump Speech Shows His Proximity to Her Views. President Donald Trump's inauguration speech "showed lots of similarities with our own views," Marine Le Pen, head of the National Front in France, says in an interview. Says EU has failed when it comes to economic growth, border protection, fighting poverty; says "the EU is dead but doesn't know it yet."
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.50 -1.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 34.5 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.36 +.11%.
• S&P 500 futures -.29%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (HAL)/.02
• (MCD)/1.41
• (PETS)/.25
• (BRO)/.41
• (YHOO)/.21
• (ZION)/.52

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (OTEX) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighted down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising European/Emerging Markets/US high-yield debt angst, earnings outlook worries and rising long-term rates offset oil strength, economic optimism and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• EU Populists See Trump Victory as Beginning of End for Old Order. Europe’s populist right predicted Donald Trump’s entry into the White House will herald the end of the old way of doing business in the west, as the continent’s leaders wrestled with how to deal with the new president. Anti-establishment politicians including Marine Le Pen, head of the National Front in France, and Geert Wilders of the Dutch Freedom Party echoed the combative language of the new U.S. president’s inaugural address at a celebratory rally in Koblenz, western Germany, on Saturday while Chancellor Angela Merkel was trying to reassure her supporters at a meeting in the country’s industrial heartland.
• Britain’s May, Mexico’s Pena Nieto to Meet With Trump This Month. British Prime Minister Theresa May and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto will make visits to the U.S. this month to meet with President Donald Trump, White House officials said. May will meet with Trump on Friday, White House Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee said on Saturday. Pena Nieto will meet with Trump on Jan. 31, said White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. Neither provided further details on the meetings. Trade, immigration and Trump’s campaign promise to build a wall on the southern U.S. border loom large in the president’s relations with Mexico. Britain’s exit from the European Union, the campaign against Islamic State terrorism, the Syrian civil war and sanctions against Russia are key issues in relations between the Trump administration and Britain.
• Japan’s Abe Wants to Strengthen ‘Unshakable’ Ties With U.S. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he wants to strengthen his nation’s unshakable ties with U.S. by working with President Donald Trump, according to a statement released on his office website Saturday. Abe said that with the Asia-Pacific security becoming increasingly severe, the two nations’ alliance is becoming even more important. The region is a driver of global growth, he said. The Japanese premier said he wants to meet with Trump as soon as possible. Abe is at the final stages of arranging a meeting with the new U.S. president as soon as the first half of February, public broadcaster NHK reported Saturday, without saying where it got the information.
• Kate Spade Said to Attract Interest From Coach, Michael Kors.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Under Trump Won’t Send a Delegation to Syria Talks. State Department cites demands of transition for decision not to send a delegation to Kazakhstan.
• Saudi Oil Minister: OPEC Complying with Production-Cut Agreement. Officials said the estimates were preliminary; final, end-of-month average numbers could be different.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ZBH), (YHOO), (GOOGL), (GME), (CNHI), (HRI) and (DHI).
• Had bearish commentary on (DIS).

Fox News:

• Day after Trump sworn in, hundreds of thousands protest presidency in celeb-studded march. (video)
• Madonna gives profanity-laced speech at Women's March in Washington. (video) "I have thought an awful lot about blowing up the White House," the 58-year-old pop star said, before adding that she "knows this won't change anything." Later, she dropped an f-bomb and used another vulgarity to give some advice to President Trump.

CNBC:

• Trump to oversee ‘fiscal bloodbath’ instead of prosperity, says Reagan OMB director. (video) Stockman explained that in the early 80's when Reagan took office, debt was at a $1 trillion which equaled around 30 percent of U.S. GDP. Now, 35 years later, debt is nearing $20 trillion, or what could translate to 105 percent of GDP. In other words, Reagan had a lot more room to maneuver with respect to the debt, while Trump could find himself hampered by rising debt.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Takes Over 'Riskiest' America Since World War II. (graph)
• In Stunning Admission, Draghi Says A Country Can Leave Eurozone But Must "Settle Bill First".
• Globalization's Reality - World Trade Has Increased By Less Than 1% Annually In The Last Decade. (graph)
• One Hour After Taking Office, Trump Suspends FHA Mortgage Fee Cut.
• As Its Housing Bubble Pops, Chinese Real Estate Firms Halt Monthly Pricing Data. (graph)
• Exposing The "Fake News" Censorship Industry.
• Fake News About "Love" For Obamacare?
• Asian Media Warns Of Conflict, Economic Turmoil Under "Trump World Order".
• David Rosenberg: "The Travesty Is We Have 23.5 Million Americans Aged 25-To-54 Outside The Labor Force".
• These Are The 3 Main Issues For Europe In 2017.
• Apple(AAPL) Sues Qualcomm(QCOM) For $1 Billion.
• Weekend Reading: Trump - The Best (Or Worst) Of Times.
• Senate Confirms Mattis (Defense) & Kelly (Homeland) On Trump's First Day.
• Morgan Stanley(MS) CEO James Gorman 2016 Pay: $22,500,000.
• Trump's Declaration Of War: 12 Things He Must Do For America To Be Great Again.
• Indiana YMCA Bans CNN Over Complaints About Constant Barrage of "Fake News".
• "The Potential Problems Are As Follows" - How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse.
• German Press: "That Was No Presidential Speech; That Was A Declaration Of War".
• Trump Signs First Executive Order To "Ease The Burden Of Obamacare".
• The Geopolitics Of 2017 In 4 Maps.
• Gold Pops; Banks, Bonds, & Greenback Drop As Trump Takes Office.

Business Insider:

• Here's how much debt the US government added under President Obama. (graph)
• $25 BILLION: Trump's plan to cut Wall Street regulation is going to have a big impact.
• Europe's far-right leaders have a new slogan — #WeWillMakeOurCountriesGreatAgain.
• 'From this moment on, it's going to be America First': Here's President Donald Trump's full inauguration speech.
• The first poll since May's Brexit speech gives the Tories a massive lead of 17%.
• These 2 charts will give stock pickers everywhere nightmares. (graph)
• TRUMP'S ENERGY PLAN: 'We must take advantage of the estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves'.
• Trump vows to 'crack down' on anyone who violates trade agreements.

Reuters:

• French far-right leader Le Pen calls on Europeans to 'wake up'. (video)

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,267.38 -.15%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change