Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 39.0% of Issues Advancing, 58.0% Declining
• 126 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 49.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.8%
• Vix 9.92 +1.5%
• Total Put/Call .87 +3.6%
• TRIN/Arms .83 -14.9%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 -.25 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.75 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.86 -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures -.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CBOE)/.69
• (DF)/.17
• (DISCA)/.50
• (DUK)/1.03
• (JEC)/.71
• (MDC)/.36
• (ODP)/.12
• (PRTY)/.04
• (SEE)/.47
• (STE)/.84
• (VRX)/.90
• (WLH)/.14
• (COHR)/2.45
• (EA)/.75
• (FOSL)/-.26
• (JAZZ)/2.34
• (MCHP)/1./06
• (NWSA)/.04
• (NVDA)/.81
• (PCL;N)/8.78
• (SPWR)/-.49
• (TSRO)/-2.19
• (DIS)/1.41
• (YELP)/.16

Economic Releases  

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to fall to 104.0 versus 104.7 in March.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for March are estimated to fall to 5738 versus 5743 in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Oppenheimer Industrial Conference, Jefferies Tech Conference and the Wells Fargo Industrial/Construction Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Gaming/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 9.73 -7.95%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.96 -.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.27 -2.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.77 -3.09%

• ISE Sentiment Index 61.0 -37.11%
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -18.18%

• NYSE Arms .80 +18.90%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.30 +.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 -.65%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.90 -2.90%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 7.83 +5.46%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.71 -1.36%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.08 +2.05%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 137.21 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.50-.5 basis point

• TED Spread 29.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.94 -.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .89% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.15/Metric Tonne -2.56%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.70 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.10 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.8 +2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -1.0 basis point
  
• 95.3% chance of Fed rate hike at July 26 meeting, 97.4% chance at Sept. 20 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• What Macron's Victory Means for Embattled Europe, and for Merkel. (video) Emmanuel Macron’s decision to play Beethoven’s Ode to Joy as he walked on stage to mark his victory in the French presidential election had pro-Europeans in rapture. “I had tears in my eyes,” Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the longtime French-German politician who served as a European Union lawmaker for two decades, told broadcaster Europe1 about the moment he heard the EU anthem. “With that gesture, he anchored France to Europe.”
• These Are the Elections to Care About After France. (video) Germany, Brazil and Mexico are all due to vote in next 18 months.
• German Factory Orders Rise as Economic Boom Continues Undaunted. German factory orders expanded for a second month as Europe’s largest economy picked up speed. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 1 percent in March, after expanding an upwardly revised 3.5 percent in February, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The typically volatile reading compares with a median estimate for a 0.7 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey. Orders were up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, when adjusted for working days.
• Europe Stocks Hold Steady as Macron Beats Le Pen in French Vote. (vote) European stocks closed near the highest level since August 2015, ending the session little changed after centrist Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election, indicating investors had mostly priced in the outcome that polls had consistently predicted. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.1 percent at the close, while the Euro Stoxx 50 Index lost less than 0.5 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index fell 0.9 percent after rallying in the previous two sessions. Among industry groups, real estate and travel companies climbed the most, offsetting a drop in miners. The region’s stocks had already rallied since the first round of the presidential election on April 24, with the broader Stoxx 600 still up 9 percent this year.
• OPEC Said to Have Discussed Deeper Cuts; No Consensus Reached. (video)
• Fed's Mester Warns Against Falling Behind With Rate-Hike Pace. (video) Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the central bank should continue on its gradual path of raising interest rates to prevent the risk of overheating the U.S. economy. “It’s important for the FOMC to remain very vigilant against falling behind as we continue to make progress on our goals,” Mester said in the text of a speech Monday in Chicago, referring to the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.
• More Robots, Fewer Jobs. Are you about to be replaced by a robot? The question has broad implications for the U.S. economy, especially the manufacturing sector. Industries that robotize tend to increase output. But robots can have dire consequences for workers.
• Coach(COH) Agrees to Buy Kate Spade for $2.4 Billion. (video) Coach Inc. investors think the luxury brand just found itself a bargain. The company’s shareholders applauded its $2.4 billion acquisition of Kate Spade & Co., sending Coach on one of its biggest rallies in months. Kate Spade, a rival maker of handbags and other accessories, will fetch $18.50 a share as part of the deal -- a price that’s well below where its stock traded earlier this year.

Wall Street Journal:

• Coach(COH) to Buy Kate Spade in $2.4 Billion Deal. High-end handbag and apparel maker Kate Spade had been exploring a deal to sell the company.
• Trump’s Tax Plan Would Spur Growth. By moving toward a consumption levy, it could generate a GDP gain of between 2.5% and 4.5%.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) Makes Biggest Investment-Bank Leadership Changes in Decade. Firm names Gregg Lemkau and Marc Nachmann co-heads of investment-banking unit, among other moves.

Fox News:

• Trump to name conservative picks to federal courts, on heels of Gorsuch win. (video)

CNBC:

• Goldman says U.S. economy may be slowly growing into the longest expansion in history.
• Drug pricing didn’t come up in White House biomedical meeting, NIH director says.
• Health savings accounts are the big winner as Republicans hash out an Obamacare replacement.
• Tesla(TSLA) will do in three years what it took Porsche 10 years to do, says analyst.
• Apple(AAPL) just got its most bullish forecast yet: Worth $1 trillion in a year.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Accuses Sally Yates Of Leaking "Classified Information Into The Newspapers".
• Citi Warns Of Volatility Surge As Its Macro Risk Index Crashes Near Record Lows. (graph)
• Obama Warned Trump Against Hiring Flynn: NBC.
• VIX Crashes To A 9 Handle - Lowest Level Since Feb 2007. (graph)
• Texas Governor Signs Bill To Fight Sanctuary Cities; Threatens Cops With Prison.
• Household Spending Growth Expectations Crash To Cycle Lows. (graph)
• Why OPEC Lost The War Against Shale, In Four Charts. (graph)
• "A Complete Mess" - China Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Crumble As Trade Data Disappoints. (graph)
• Oil Slumps To $45 Handle As Saudi Jawboning Fails. (graph)

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -1.9% 2) Biotech -1.8% 3) Steel -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HZNP, SBRA, KITE, TSN, STMP, MLCO, BMCH and LBTYK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MPLX 2) DISH 3) VIAB 4) BK 5) JCP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LYB 2) ALXN 3) SAFM 4) PCMI 5) LPX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +1.4% 2) Education +1.2% 3) Energy +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VTTI, KATE, TRCO, PETS, CCP, TSEM, REV, JD, WRLD, COH, ALDW, GIMO, STRP, NWL, KAMN, OLED, MZOR, SODA, W, ICHR, AAOI, FDC, ADES, K, WB, GIMO and DDD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ZNGA 2) NWL 3) RSX 4) GIMO 5) CAR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NWL 2) PETS 3) VAR 4) JD 5) JCP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume