Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • BOJ Watchers Push Back Exit Forecasts. Fewer economists see any chance of monetary tightening this year by the Bank of Japan after Haruhiko Kuroda’s renomination as governor and his comments on when the BOJ is likely to start thinking about exit. None forecast any change at this week’s policy meeting. While the vast majority of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg think the central bank is inching closer toward the day it will start winding back its monetary stimulus program, less than one-third of them think it will come this year. That’s down from about half in Bloomberg’s last poll in January.
  • Keep Calm About U.S. Crisis And Invest in Stocks, Barclays Says. (video) There’s no need to hide your money under the mattress for fear that the next selloff is around the corner, according to Will Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Plc in London. “The further into the future you are happy to look, the less you need worry about calling the next recession, and the more you need to just put your cash to work and forget about it,” Hobbs told Bloomberg News in an interview. “It could be a long and painful wait for those out of the market, based on the indicators that we look at.
Wall Street Journal:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -.9% 2) Drugs -.8% 3) Foods -.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GLYC, FRPT, INNT, YY, PRGS, FATE and TGT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DLTR 2) KR 3) AEO 4) BG 5) NRG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FRPT 2) ASNA 3) POR 4) FATE 5) DUK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Networking +2.1% 2) Alt Energy +1.9% 3) Disk Drives +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CHUBA, CLSD, BZUN, WBAI, ALOG, CIEN, ZSAN, CREE, FDX, VEC, JOBS, IEP, MGLN, NX, PFPT, SSYS, PTGX, GTHX, PARR, APEI, PJC, FNSR, NFLX, HCM, NTNX, CCXI, LRCX, ON, MU and HEES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FNSR 2) ON 3) HPQ 4) CIEN 5) CREE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BZUN 2) LRCX 3) CIEN 4) MYL 5) MU
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, March 05, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Draghi’s Three Reasons to Justify No Change in ECB Guidance. Mario Draghi has just received a triple whammy of evidence to justify playing it safe when he meets with fellow European Central Bank policy makers this week. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum has raised the specter of a global trade war, and the anti-establishment surge in Italy puts a question mark over the political outlook for one of the euro area’s biggest and most-indebted economies. Meanwhile, the upswing in the 19-nation bloc may be hitting a speed bump.
  • Equity Gains Spread to Asia as Trade Worries Ease. Japan’s Topix index surged almost 2 percent and shares in Australia and South Korea also gained. The S&P 500 Index advanced for a second day after hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio called the threat of a trade war “political show” and House Speaker Paul Ryan urged the president to reconsider tariffs on steel and aluminum. Ten-year Treasury yields advanced toward 2.90 percent. Japan’s Topix was up 1.8 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.1 percent as of 9:23 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.2 percent. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index gained less than 0.05 percent. The underlying measure rose 1.1 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC: 
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.46 +.04%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.40%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (CIEN)/.12
  • (DCI)/.44
  • (JW/A)/.82
  • (TGT)/1.38
  • (ADSK)/-.11
  • (HRB)/-1.29
  • (KFY)/.58
  • (ROST)/.93
  • (URBN)/.63
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall -1.4% versus a +1.7% gain in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, (LRCX) analyst meeting, (VMI) investor day, (PBI) analyst day, (CVX) analyst meeting, Australia Retail Sales report, weekly US retail sales reports and the RBC Financial Institutions Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Financial/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -6.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.36 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.06 -1.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.90 -4.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +15.58%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +14.53%
  • NYSE Arms .50 -32.28%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.67 -1.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 394.0 -.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.96 +.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.0 -.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 119.70 -3.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.01 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.40 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 64.50 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.71 USD/Metric Tonne -.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.90 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.6 -7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 +2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +283 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +75 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +76 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long