Monday, March 05, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Financial/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -6.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.36 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.06 -1.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.90 -4.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +15.58%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +14.53%
  • NYSE Arms .50 -32.28%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.67 -1.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 394.0 -.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.96 +.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.0 -.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 119.70 -3.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.01 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.40 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 64.50 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.71 USD/Metric Tonne -.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.90 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.6 -7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 +2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +283 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +75 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +76 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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