Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China at Risk of Banking Crisis in BIS's Early Warning Signal. China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements. Canada -- whose economy grew last year at the fastest pace since 2011 -- was flagged thanks to its households’ maxed-out credit cards and high debt levels in the wider economy. These same issues also afflict China and Hong Kong, according to the study. “The indicators currently point to the build-up of risks in several economies,” analysts Inaki Aldasoro, Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann wrote in the BIS’s latest Quarterly Review published on Sunday.

• Deutsche Bank Board Said to Seek 6,000 Job Cuts at Retail Unit. Deutsche Bank AG’s management board will seek to cut as many as 6,000 jobs at the lender’s retail unit by the end of 2022, providing the first estimate for the expected staff reductions at the newly formed division, according to two people briefed on the matter.

• Funding Circle Picks Goldman Sachs(GS), Morgan Stanley(MS) for IPO.

• JPMorgan(JPM) Sees Busiest Mideast Year With IPOs, M&A Driving Deals.

• Asia Stocks Set to Gain on U.S. Economy Optimism. Australia’s stocks opened higher and futures on equity indexes in Japan and Hong Kong indicated gains of about 1 percent for the start of Monday trading after the S&P 500 Index climbed and the Nasdaq Composite Index soared to a fresh record high. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 313,000 last month, topping forecasts, and the biggest increase in 18 months, while wage growth was subdued. That nudged up Treasury yields. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1 percent in most recent trading in Chicago. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.8 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1 percent. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent as of 8:03 a.m. in Tokyo.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)

Wall Street Journal: 

• Trump’s Gun Plan to Include Encouraging States to Allow Armed School Staff. White House to release plan on Sunday; president to signal support for banning ‘bump stocks’.

• Are You Underpaid? In a First, U.S. Firms Reveal How Much They Pay Workers. Workers can compare their co-workers’ pay with their own and that of the CEO—yet comparisons between companies can be tricky. 

• GOP Talks of Bill to Thwart Tariffs, While Democrat Warren Applauds Trump. Unconventional political alignments take shape after president fulfills protectionist campaign promise. 

• Italian Election Dims Hopes of Eurozone Reform. Rise of antiestablishment parties makes prospect of overhaul at June summit increasingly unlikely.

• New Life for Steel Plant Perks Up Depressed Illinois Town, Workforce. U.S. Steel’s decision to fire up part of idled Granite City plant has ripple effect through community.

• OPEC Divided on the Right Price for Oil. Iran wants to see $60 a barrel to rein in shale producers, while Saudi Arabia’s budget needs $70.

• Why Blockchain Will Survive, Even If Bitcoin Doesn’t. Latest blockchain applications could bring overdue change to critical, if unsexy, functions in shipping, real estate and…diamonds. 

• Doomsday Climate Scenarios Are a Joke.

• Global Politics Emerge as a Dicey Influence on Markets. From the threat of a trade war to a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea, investors face more uncertainty and volatility.

MarketWatch.com:

• Worry about rising inflation? Sure, but there’s no reason to be scared.

• Alt-coin traders share their portfolio-of-horror stories.

Fox News:

• CIA chief Pompeo says no concessions to North Korea's Kim Jong Un before talks. (video)

• O.J. Simpson gives hypothetical account of murders in 'Lost Confession': 'It was absolutely horrible'. (video) Simpson then claimed, “At that time, I think Charlie had followed this guy in, to make sure there was no problem, and he brought in the knife. I took the knife from Charlie, and to be honest, after that, I don’t remember, except I’m standing there and there’s all kinda stuff around. Blood and stuff.”

• Warren: No to White House bid, DNA test; says heritage 'part of who I am'. (video)

CNBC: 

• In the wake of the Equifax data breach, consumers more at risk. (video)

• China allows Xi to remain president indefinitely.

• China minister says trade war with US would be 'disaster'.

• The S&P 500 is going to take the scenic route to all-time highs this year: Wells Fargo.

• 'Major' weather system taking aim at Metro NY, NJ, CT area, with heavy snow expected.

• How to surf the web safely on public Wi-Fi networks.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Tells Netanyahu: US To Withdraw From Iran Deal Unless "Significant" Changes Made.

• Theresa May To Blame Russia For Nerve Gas Attack; "Full Spectrum" Of Sanctions To Follow.

• Russia "Successfully" Test-Fires Hypersonic Missile.

• Rigged? NYFed Slams Study Showing Alleged Collusion Between Fed, Banks Around FOMC Meetings.

• CIA Director: US Will Make No Concessions Before North Korea Talks.

• The $233 Trillion Dollar Dark Cloud Of Global Debt.

• China Accuses US Of Fabricating Trade Data, Warns "Trade War Would Be A Disaster".

• Pentagon Official: China's Hypersonic Missiles Could Threaten US Navy's "Entire Surface Fleet".

• "Happy You Day": Introducing Gender-Neutral Mother's Day Cards.

• "Where To From Here": Why Goldman's Client Are Confused.

Business Insider: 

• Trump lashes out at media, Democrats, drug dealers, Oprah in rambunctious speech in Pennsylvania.

• A double-amputee Navy SEAL platoon commander won a gold medal at the Winter Paralympics.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.41 +.05%. 

• FTSE 100 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (SHLD)/1.16

• (KRO)/.54 

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for February is estimated at -$216.0B versus -$192.0B in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Cowen Health Care Conference, White House meeting on renewable fuel standards, $28B 3Y T-Note auction, $21B 10Y T-Note auction and the Japan inflation report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.