Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Asian Stocks Off to Weak Start as Caution Prevails. Stocks were modestly weaker in Japan, Australia and South Korea, while Hong Kong futures also tipped equities to fall. The S&P 500 Index fell for a third day, with trading volume more than 10 percent below the 30-day average, suggesting investors are shying away from big wagers. Treasury yields dropped on bets the Federal Reserve won’t accelerate the pace of interest-rate hikes. The New Zealand dollar fell after growth data missed estimates. The Topix index fell 0.2 percent as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8 percent. S&P 500 Index future contracts rose less than 0.2 percent after the underlying benchmark declined 0.6 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed.
  • Senate Backs Bill Relaxing Post-Crisis Rules for Smaller Banks. The U.S. Senate passed legislation that would ease constraints on regional and community banks while mostly snubbing Wall Street, giving the finance industry its best chance in years of rolling back rules adopted in the wake of the 2008 crisis. The bipartisan bill crafted by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo frees smaller lenders from some of the toughest requirements of the Dodd-Frank Act, striking them from the ranks of banks deemed too-big-to-fail.
  • The Bitcoin Fad Is Fading. Suddenly, Bitcoin seems a bit boring. It might be hard to believe. But after the 1,400 percent rally of 2017, with wild swings along the way, the great crypto craze has cooled, at least for now. For the past month, Bitcoin’s price has stalled between $8,500 and $11,300 -- a minuscule range by its standards. And internet searches for “Bitcoin” have plunged, suggesting public interest has, too. “The general public is now realizing that this is not a risk-free, get-rich-quick, investment opportunity and general interest has since diminished,” said Lucas Nuzzi, a senior analyst at Digital Asset Research.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.50 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.46 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (DG)/1.48
  • (GCO)/2.09
  • (SUP)/.24
  • (ADBE)/1.44
  • (AVGO)/5.08
  • (JBL)/.62
  • (OSTK)/-.03
  • (ULTA)/2.78
  • (ZUMZ)/.90
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 15.0 versus 13.1 in February. 
  • The Import Price Index MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.0% gain in January.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in January.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 228K versus 231K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1903K versus 1870K prior. 
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to fall to 23.0 versus 25.8 in February. 
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated at 72.0 versus 72.0 in February.
1:00 pm EST
  • Baker Hughes US Rig Count.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January.
Upcoming Splits
  • (AFL) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The EU car registrations report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Feb. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (ZUMZ) monthly sales report and the BofA Tech/Media/Telecom conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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