Monday, March 12, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Buyout Speculation, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.11 +10.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.66 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.71 -.26%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.89 +3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -10.78%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +4.9%
  • NYSE Arms .72 +13.73%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 397.0 -.76%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 49.22 -1.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.0 -5.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 113.83 +.49%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.18 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.50 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.0 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.43 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.67% unch.
  • Yield Curve 60.5 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.17 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.0 -2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.80 -4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.90 +2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -169 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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