Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Buyout Speculation, Yen Weakness, Retail/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.1 +7.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.88 +.61%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.02 -.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.99 +3.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.34 +25.23%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -38.62%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.63 +1.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 444.0 +.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.96 +1.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.75 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.45 +1.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 141.53 -1.65%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.69 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 55.25 +3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.08 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.72% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 49.25 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.7 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.20 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.70 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 79.4% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 80.3% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -104 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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