Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Stocks Close Substantially Lower on Less Economic Optimism, Earnings Concerns, Oil Decline, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +8.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.24 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.11 +7.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +41.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -14.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +188.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.14 +2.12%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 443.0 -.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.90 -2.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.75 +3.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.20 -.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 144.37 +.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.60 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 -5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 51.5 -4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.29 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.75% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 50.75 -6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.50 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -1.0 basis point
  • 77.4% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 78.8% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -577 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -153 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -130 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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